B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 1 The dollar is the reserve currency and a safety net. The U.S. government can
therefore print money without too much dire consequences such as huge
depreciation. Why? Because QE for U.S. means U.S. economy is in trouble and
thus the world economy is in trouble. People will then rush to buy US
treasuries, lessening the impact on the depreciation caused by extra dollar.
If China prints more money and still supports rmb, the foreign exchange
reserve will be depleted real soon because when China is in trouble, people
think about getting money out of the country. Eventually Chinese currency
has to undergo huge depreciation, followed by lower economic growth and bad
debt accumulating on banks' books. The best scenario is like Japan, also the
2nd largest economy then. The Japanese yen is forced to appreciate,
followed by depreciation, stock market crash, deflation and the lost decade
despite Japanese use of QE. The worst case will be Zimbabwe where we see
hyperinflation and social unrest. We could be experiencing a much more
serious migrant crisis than the Syria one we see now in this scenario. |
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