n**********y
发帖数: 44 | | e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 2 if you have to be a short, what about August 2012 at $100 and again August
2015 at $134? Where were you then? 千载难逢? that's twice in three years...
down 40% and 30+% respectively.
Although AAPL trades like a momentum stock, you have to be mindful of its
underlying fundamentals and the stock buyback program in place. Sure you can
be opportunistic by timing the market to make some money off AAPL as a
short... but it's a dangerous proposition. | t**c
发帖数: 7480 | 3 MM经常在果子ER的时候砸盘倒是真的，即使双Beat也能找出理由。
..
can
【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】
: if you have to be a short, what about August 2012 at $100 and again August
: 2015 at $134? Where were you then? 千载难逢? that's twice in three years...
: down 40% and 30+% respectively.
: Although AAPL trades like a momentum stock, you have to be mindful of its
: underlying fundamentals and the stock buyback program in place. Sure you can
: be opportunistic by timing the market to make some money off AAPL as a
: short... but it's a dangerous proposition.
| e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 4 Well, if you have been in the stock long enough, then you should be able to
see through these noises.
AAPL recently came down from $134 to below $100 mainly on two concerns --
initially disappointing Apple watch sales and then followed by the China
concern. So if these concerns are addressed in the coming earnings report,
stock will take off.
For the upcoming earnings reports, the street will be fixated on a single
number --- iphone unit sales. Iphone # will likely disappoint for the simple
reason that the quarter ends on 9/26 vs. 9/30 last year. The cutoff is
significant, because only 2 days of new iphone sales will be counted for the
quarter while the dumb analysts never bothered to adjust their iphone sales
estimate. So we are very likely to see a knee-jerk reaction to the downside
once the iphone sales # is read on CNBC next Tuesday. But what really comes
down to is the guidance, if Apple give guidance above last years #, watch
out... short will lose their pants.
anyway, at this point, the downside is limited to at ~ $100, upside is to
new highs, even $150 could be within the reach in the near term. Risk/Reward
favors the long side. I am in AAPL for the long haul.. but will take profit
once Apple's market cap approaching 1 trillion.
【在 t**c 的大作中提到】
: MM经常在果子ER的时候砸盘倒是真的，即使双Beat也能找出理由。
:
: ..
: can
| t**c
发帖数: 7480 | 5 我希望它take off，我122的均价拿了几个月了
to
simple
the
【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】
: Well, if you have been in the stock long enough, then you should be able to
: see through these noises.
: AAPL recently came down from $134 to below $100 mainly on two concerns --
: initially disappointing Apple watch sales and then followed by the China
: concern. So if these concerns are addressed in the coming earnings report,
: stock will take off.
: For the upcoming earnings reports, the street will be fixated on a single
: number --- iphone unit sales. Iphone # will likely disappoint for the simple
: reason that the quarter ends on 9/26 vs. 9/30 last year. The cutoff is
: significant, because only 2 days of new iphone sales will be counted for the
|
|
