W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 1 Natural gas prices have run up phenomenally since the June contract expired
on 26 May at $1.963/mmBtu. The natural gas prices touched an intraday high
of $2.48/mmBtu on 6 June before closing flat for the day.
Since October 2015, prices have not been able to cross the strong resistance
area of $2.5/mmBtu, as seen in the chart below. Do the fundamentals support
a breakout and higher prices in the coming weeks, or will we see a move
back into the range?
We have to consider supply and demand, along with inventory data to
understand whether prices justify their sharp rise, within such a short span
of time.
Storage
Though natural gas storage levels remain elevated, the supply glut is
slowing compared to analysts’ expectations. As of 27 May, the Energy
Information Administration reported natural gas inventories of 2,907 Billion
cubic feet, an increase of 82 Bcf, which was below the consensus
expectations of 86-Bcf, according to The Wall Street Journal.
In the previous week, inventories were 37 percent above five-year average
levels compared to the same week in 2015; however, this week the surplus
shrank to 35 percent above five-year average levels. This is an indication
of a diminishing surplus.
"The 82 Bcf net injection into storage for last week was slightly less than
the consensus view and below the 98 Bcf five-year average for the date, and
so at least somewhat supportive for prices," said Tim Evans of Citi Futures
Perspective.
"The build was also well below our model's 96 Bcf forecast, and so will
translate into a more bullish baseline for the reports to follow," reports
Natural Gas Intel.
Demand and Supply
In the long-term, the demand for natural gas is on the rise, as outlined in
the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook. However, in the short-term, the immediate
demand for natural gas influences prices. Mild winter conditions were partly
to blame for the record low prices in March of this year, along with the
excess supply.
Related: Rebound In Oil Prices Changes Drillers’ Mindset
However, the recent forecast of a hotter summer is expected to increase the
air conditioning requirements leading to increased gas-powered electricity.
“With the weather once again changing to another warming trend, the market
is looking for a bump up in consumption at a time when production may be
starting to ease,” said Dominick Chirichella, an analyst at the Energy
Management Institute, reports The Wall Street Journal.
The natural gas rig count fell by five rigs to 82, according to the Baker
Hughes rig count report for the week ending 3 June. The rig count has
dropped 63.1 percent year-over-year.
Experts believe that though consumption will increase, supply will not
return as quickly as the EIA anticipates, which will lead to a reduction in
storage levels and increased gas prices.
Related: Norway Set To Ban Fossil Fuel Cars In 2025
The current prices are close to the forecast of the World Bank estimates of
$2.5/mmBtu and slightly above the EIA forecast of $2.32/mmBtu for 2016.
Considering the sharp run-up in the last few days, natural gas prices are
likely to consolidate their gains, waiting for the fundamentals to catch up.
A material change to the existing demand and supply situation is needed for
the prices to break out of the stiff resistance level of $2.5/mmBtu.
By Rakesh Upadhyay for Oilprice.com | W***n
发帖数: 11530 | | b*****e
发帖数: 5907 | 3 分析有毛用，都是对着market来分析，没任何意义
expired
resistance
support
span
【在 W***n 的大作中提到】
: Natural gas prices have run up phenomenally since the June contract expired
: on 26 May at $1.963/mmBtu. The natural gas prices touched an intraday high
: of $2.48/mmBtu on 6 June before closing flat for the day.
: Since October 2015, prices have not been able to cross the strong resistance
: area of $2.5/mmBtu, as seen in the chart below. Do the fundamentals support
: a breakout and higher prices in the coming weeks, or will we see a move
: back into the range?
: We have to consider supply and demand, along with inventory data to
: understand whether prices justify their sharp rise, within such a short span
: of time.
| W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 4 analyze past data is easy
prediction is difficult
otherwise t author can be a billionaire in no time | w*j
发帖数: 6104 | 5 今天库存预测+77BCF, 产量还是历史最高. 看这数据,小散谁敢做多? | r*****t
发帖数: 712 | 6 。。。。。反指啊你
【在 w*j 的大作中提到】
: 今天库存预测+77BCF, 产量还是历史最高. 看这数据,小散谁敢做多?
| s*****r
发帖数: 88 | 7 now cut dgaz or buy ugaz? | y****3
发帖数: 825 | 8 哪位大神说ugaz要冲$100的？愿闻其详
【在 s*****r 的大作中提到】
: now cut dgaz or buy ugaz?
| b****y
发帖数: 480 | 9 Wild guessing, NG will be $3.00/mmBtu by Oct. | w*j
发帖数: 6104 | 10 到１０月的时候，当前期货就是１１月的，１１月的现在已经３元了。你这是要做空Ｕ
ＧＡＺ？
【在 b****y 的大作中提到】
: Wild guessing, NG will be $3.00/mmBtu by Oct.
| w*j
发帖数: 6104 | 11 ＵＧＡＺ 今年底到１００，除非１月份的期货要到５元。现在价格3.328. 这当然也
是有可能。
【在 y****3 的大作中提到】
: 哪位大神说ugaz要冲$100的？愿闻其详
| b****y
发帖数: 480 | 12 you are right.
NG is in bullish up trend now.
【在 w*j 的大作中提到】
: 到１０月的时候，当前期货就是１１月的，１１月的现在已经３元了。你这是要做空Ｕ
: ＧＡＺ？
| i**********2
发帖数: 137 | 13 EIA reports +65BCF, so ...
【在 w*j 的大作中提到】
: 今天库存预测+77BCF, 产量还是历史最高. 看这数据,小散谁敢做多?
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