g****t
发帖数: 4493 | 1 Jan. 2.17 | About: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
来源： NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) | Seeking Alpha
Long/short equity, deep value, special situations, contrarian
Summary
In November 2013, Nvidia sold about 64 million warrants to Goldman Sachs.
Today, both parties are entering in a termination agreement, whereby Nvidia
will settle in shares.
The termination agreement will cost Nvidia shareholders anywhere from 8% to
9.2% in dilution.
This is a major dilutive transaction and therefore negative for the stock.
On 12/12/2016, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) filed a Form 8-K report that read:
On December 12, 2016, NVIDIA Corporation (the "Company") entered into an
agreement (the "Termination Agreement") with Goldman, Sachs &Co. ("Goldman")
to terminate certain of the outstanding warrants to purchase shares of the
Company's common stock (the "Common Stock") that were issued to Goldman
pursuant to two letter agreements between the Company and Goldman, one dated
as of November 25, 2013 (the "Base Warrant Transaction"), and the other
dated as of November 26, 2013 (the "Additional Warrant Transaction").
Pursuant to the terms of the Termination Agreement, 63,259,180.62 warrants
in aggregate will be terminated. In consideration of the termination of
these warrants, the Company will deliver shares of Common Stock to Goldman,
the amount of which will be determined each day based on the daily volume-
weighted average price of the Common Stock during an observation period
beginning December 13, 2016 and ending January 31, 2017. The shares of
Common Stock issuable under the Termination Agreement are being issued in
reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of
the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
So on the face of it, NVDA in the past sold warrants to Goldman Sachs (NYSE:
GS) and collected a premium, and now the two parties are entering a
settlement agreement.
So now let's investigate this transaction further to see if there are any
implications for NVDA shares.
The magnitude of the transaction is mindboggeling
NVDA Shares Outstanding data by YCharts
At around November 2013, NVDA had about 580 million shares outstanding. So
these warrants at the time represented about 11% of the company, and almost
12% today. As to why NVDA management entered in such a transaction with GS,
I do not know and it is not the scope of this article. However, it is a
humongous transaction.
I then went to NVDA's site to see the original filing, to investigate what
the strike price might be, to try to figure the cost to NVDA.
The Form 8-K filing in question was published several days after this
transaction on Dec. 2, 2014. In this filing, besides the GS transaction,
NVDA also entered into an agreement with Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) for $1.5
billion, 1% convertible notes due 2018. This article is also not about this
transaction, but as a side note, the document reads: "The company may not
redeem the Notes prior to their maturity".
Anyway, in the 2014 filing, we read:
Click to enlarge
While in the press release NVDA said that 63,259,180.62 warrants were to be
canceled, in the original report, we see that originally about 64.5 million
warrants were issued.
Also, please note that a premium of $51,22 million was paid to NVDA for the
warrants, and in the filing, the expiration date is March 1, 2019. Most
important, the strike price is $27.1425 per warrant .
Let's talk settlement
There are several ways in which a settlement can be made in order for
warrants to be canceled. The most obvious way is for NVDA to settle in cash.
Assuming a hypothetical settlement in cash will be made at Friday's closing
price, then NVDA would have to pay GS:
(Friday's close - strike price) X 63,259,180.62 warrants
If we plug in the numbers and do the math, then NVDA would have to pay:
($106.74 - $27.1425) X 63,259,180.62 = $5.04 billion .
However, NVDA is not settling in cash. Even if NVDA could afford to do so -
with $6.67 billion in cash and equivalents on its books - it would probably
be irresponsible to do so.
NVDA could also let GS exercise the warrants, and earn about $27 a share at
the same time. However, the company is not doing this either.
Instead, NVDA is settling in its own shares. In other words, instead of cash
, it will give GS the monetary equivalent in shares, in tranches, over a
period of time.
The next question is, how many shares will GS receive in order to calculate
the dilution.
First of all, there are two batches of warrants. The first consists of about
33.5 million warrants, and NVDA will deliver shares over a period of 17
days. The second batch of warrants consists of a total of 29.73 million
warrants and will be exercised over a period of 33 days.
Click to enlarge
On the partial table I show above (for a complete list of tranches and value
of warrants based on the VWAP, please read the press release), on the left
is the volume-weighted average price of NVDA shares on the date of
deliverance, and on the right is the value of the warrant.
So, for example, if NVDA shares close at $100 on a particular date, then
NVDA has to deliver to GS shares worth $75.0138.
So, for argument's sake, let's take two extreme prices to see how many
shares NVDA might have to deliver to GS.
Let's assume for argument's sake that for the entire period of the agreement
, NVDA shares close at a VWAP of $80 (volume weight Average Price). NVDA has
to deliver to GS the equivalent shares of:
No. of warrants X price of warrant / VWAP
63,259,180.62 warrants X 55.3723 / $80 = about 43.8 million shares
If we perform the same calculation with a VWAP of $120, then doing the math
we get:
63,259,180.62 warrants X 94.8689 / $120 = 50 million shares.
My first observation is that the higher the price, the more shares GS will
receive.
Let me put on my conspiracy cap
So, when will NVDA start delivering shares? Well, it has already started.
Beginning on December the 13th, and for subsequent 32 trading days, NVDA
will be delivering shares to GS based on the schedule in the press release.
However, on Dec. 20, GS upgraded Nvidia with a price target of $129 (prior $
92). Now, I assume there is a Chinese Wall between GS's analysts department,
and that the analysts who made this call had no prior knowledge of the
warrants. However, it is a big coincidence if you ask me.
Second, I tried to find out if GS - by virtue of the fact that it owned more
than 10% of the company via warrants - was considered a beneficiary owner,
and thus had to file to the SEC the sale of the shares it receives from NVDA.
Even though I spent several hours investigating the matter, I could not come
to a clear-cut conclusion (perhaps some securities lawyer could clear the
matter in the comments).
In any case, I looked at GS's recent filings and found no evidence of any
NVDA shares being sold. So either GS is not considered a beneficiary and has
sold the shares, or GS is a beneficiary and has not sold any shares.
Bottom line
The GS warrant transaction is a major dilutive event
for current NVDA shareholders. Depending on the closing price of NVDA shares
starting Dec. 13 - and for the next 32 trading days - the dilution that
current shareholders could endure ranges between 8% and 9.2% (assuming
closing prices between $80 and $120).
That alone is a negative for the stock in my book. Furthermore, depending if
GS is selling or not, or planning to sell, that might add a further bearish
tone to NVDA's stock price.
Based on this transaction, unless something else is going on that is not
disclosed yet, all I know and understand about investing tells me that NVDA'
s stock is going to correct from here.
As such, I stand by my bearish call for the stock in the article I wrote on
Friday. Please consider: Nvidia: Take The Money And Run (Yesterday).
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate
a short position in NVDA over the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not
receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no
business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this
article |
b****y
发帖数: 480 | 2 高盛赚了 5+ 个B以上，也就是 NVDA 对赌 GS 亏了 $5B. |
G*********3
发帖数: 218 | 3 顶一下这个贴，很多人都没看见吗？还是视而不见？这个肯定会让NVDA跌不少吧？ |
l********7
发帖数: 2974 | 4 GS赚了散户多少？这个是我个人关心的，呵呵。
Nvidia
to
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: Jan. 2.17 | About: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
: 来源： NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) | Seeking Alpha
: Long/short equity, deep value, special situations, contrarian
: Summary
: In November 2013, Nvidia sold about 64 million warrants to Goldman Sachs.
: Today, both parties are entering in a termination agreement, whereby Nvidia
: will settle in shares.
: The termination agreement will cost Nvidia shareholders anywhere from 8% to
: 9.2% in dilution.
: This is a major dilutive transaction and therefore negative for the stock.
|
b****y
发帖数: 480 | 5 NVDA 对赌 GS 亏了 $5B， 不管你是小散，大散户，
如果现在还是 NVDA 的 股东， 就是在这件事亏了。
【在 l********7 的大作中提到】
: GS赚了散户多少？这个是我个人关心的，呵呵。
:
: Nvidia
: to
|
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 6 野鸡FA会问如果股票不继续飙的话，NVDA管事的为啥要现在terminate? 听上去像是有
人借这个打压股价上车吧，找机会也上车吧，呵呵。 |
l********7
发帖数: 2974 | 7 你的意思，NVDA是大散户？
还有，你看了具体数据，散户是多少了吗？仅仅凭感觉推断，凡是亏了的就是散户，赚
了的就是庄家，这不太合理，对吧？
【在 b****y 的大作中提到】
: NVDA 对赌 GS 亏了 $5B， 不管你是小散，大散户，
: 如果现在还是 NVDA 的 股东， 就是在这件事亏了。
|
l********7
发帖数: 2974 | 8 应该说是，“亏”了的，；）
【在 l********7 的大作中提到】
: 你的意思，NVDA是大散户？
: 还有，你看了具体数据，散户是多少了吗？仅仅凭感觉推断，凡是亏了的就是散户，赚
: 了的就是庄家，这不太合理，对吧？
|
g****t
发帖数: 4493 | 9 NVDA在股价过27后，大笔回购，回报股东。原来是给高盛白白打了三年工，太惨了。
【在 b****y 的大作中提到】
: NVDA 对赌 GS 亏了 $5B， 不管你是小散，大散户，
: 如果现在还是 NVDA 的 股东， 就是在这件事亏了。
|
j*****y
发帖数: 1916 | 10 November 25, 2013， GS bought NVDA @ $27/share; more than 10% of NVDA.
December 12, 2016, GS decided to terminate the warranty.
（NVDA Mkt cap 52.28B; this warranty is more than $5B)
NVDA will be severely diluted.
We do not know GS will sell the shares to the public market or keep them for
long run.
想想挺没有意思的。
小小散户永远处于信息链的最底层 --- GS开始套现了，我们才知道为什么NVDA从去年
12月中开始狂飙。人家都开始卖了，我们才刚刚知道它为什么涨了。 |
|
|
g**u
发帖数: 504 | 11 这个信息是最近才 release 的吗？我的意思是散户在之前都是没法知道GS原来是大庄
家吗？
for
【在 j*****y 的大作中提到】
: November 25, 2013， GS bought NVDA @ $27/share; more than 10% of NVDA.
: December 12, 2016, GS decided to terminate the warranty.
: （NVDA Mkt cap 52.28B; this warranty is more than $5B)
: NVDA will be severely diluted.
: We do not know GS will sell the shares to the public market or keep them for
: long run.
: 想想挺没有意思的。
: 小小散户永远处于信息链的最底层 --- GS开始套现了，我们才知道为什么NVDA从去年
: 12月中开始狂飙。人家都开始卖了，我们才刚刚知道它为什么涨了。
|
a**o
发帖数: 115 | 12 GS从NVDA直接以每股$0.8的价格买了65个million的2019年$27strick 的 call. 现在不
想等了，想现在settle这个option. NVDA没有cash, 只有给股票。
GS为什么不等到2019呢？是因为现在需要用这笔钱吗？还是看到了更好的机会？如果不
是要用钱的话，就不需要现在settle. 如果是要用钱的话，就要卖股票。这么多股票不
容易一下子高价卖出去。 |
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | |
n*****0
发帖数: 1721 | 14 现在大盘还不是一样的，这种事都只有事后才能琢磨明白。
for
【在 j*****y 的大作中提到】
: November 25, 2013， GS bought NVDA @ $27/share; more than 10% of NVDA.
: December 12, 2016, GS decided to terminate the warranty.
: （NVDA Mkt cap 52.28B; this warranty is more than $5B)
: NVDA will be severely diluted.
: We do not know GS will sell the shares to the public market or keep them for
: long run.
: 想想挺没有意思的。
: 小小散户永远处于信息链的最底层 --- GS开始套现了，我们才知道为什么NVDA从去年
: 12月中开始狂飙。人家都开始卖了，我们才刚刚知道它为什么涨了。
|
a**o
发帖数: 115 | 15 没有800米，只有50几个米。买的是option. 不是股票。
【在 n*******s 的大作中提到】
: 当年NVDA用这800米干啥了，盖楼了吗？
|
c**z
发帖数: 1014 | 16 nvda为什么不在股价30左右就terminate，而是要等到将近120了才来terminate？
：NVDA在股价过27后，大笔回购，回报股东。原来是给高盛白白打了三年工，太惨了。
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: NVDA在股价过27后，大笔回购，回报股东。原来是给高盛白白打了三年工，太惨了。
|
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 17 股票当时不是在15吗
【在 a**o 的大作中提到】
: 没有800米，只有50几个米。买的是option. 不是股票。
|
C*****5
发帖数: 8812 | 18 合同规定不能提前
【在 c**z 的大作中提到】
: nvda为什么不在股价30左右就terminate，而是要等到将近120了才来terminate？
:
: ：NVDA在股价过27后，大笔回购，回报股东。原来是给高盛白白打了三年工，太惨了。
|
g****t
发帖数: 4493 | 19 很奇怪，当年NVDA只卖了五千万美元，他们真缺这五千万吗？三年前NVDA管理层在想
什么呢？听着像高盛给NVDA下了个套。高盛赚的这五十亿美元，按照Q3盈利5亿美元，
NVDA要
不吃不喝10个季度才能赚回来。 |
C*****5
发帖数: 8812 | 20 就你聪明
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 很奇怪，当年NVDA只卖了五千万美元，他们真缺这五千万吗？三年前NVDA管理层在想
: 什么呢？听着像高盛给NVDA下了个套。高盛赚的这五十亿美元，按照Q3盈利5亿美元，
: NVDA要
: 不吃不喝10个季度才能赚回来。
|
|
|
g****t
发帖数: 4493 | 21 如果现在NVDA吹嘘他们三年前就布局AI了，有多少人会相信？要知道资贷危机时，高盛
以极其苛刻的条件从buffet那儿借了$5B，才不致于倒闭。 |
l********7
发帖数: 2974 | 22 我认为为NVDA股东（大散户、小散户）操心的，应该是杞人忧天了。。。 |
a***m
发帖数: 5037 | 23 属实
还有人喊怎么视而不见。
所有这些散户能接触到的信息，早就反映在股价上了。
【在 l********7 的大作中提到】
: 我认为为NVDA股东（大散户、小散户）操心的，应该是杞人忧天了。。。
|
a**o
发帖数: 115 | 24 典型的双赢。没有gs pump，nvda也不可能张的这么多。反正有大家接盘。
其实如果gs当时想到现在就卖的话，买入call的价钱会更便宜。
很奇怪，当年NVDA只卖了五千万美元，他们真缺这五千万吗？三年前NVDA管理层在想
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 很奇怪，当年NVDA只卖了五千万美元，他们真缺这五千万吗？三年前NVDA管理层在想
: 什么呢？听着像高盛给NVDA下了个套。高盛赚的这五十亿美元，按照Q3盈利5亿美元，
: NVDA要
: 不吃不喝10个季度才能赚回来。
|
a**o
发帖数: 115 | 25 而且gs也有风险的。你也可以现在买2019年一月份 nvda 200的call. 估计也不到$1.
明年涨到$1000时卖掉，你也可以翻800倍。
【在 a**o 的大作中提到】
: 典型的双赢。没有gs pump，nvda也不可能张的这么多。反正有大家接盘。
: 其实如果gs当时想到现在就卖的话，买入call的价钱会更便宜。
:
: 很奇怪，当年NVDA只卖了五千万美元，他们真缺这五千万吗？三年前NVDA管理层在想
|
a***m
发帖数: 5037 | 26 三年前一点都不奇怪
GPU做通用计算（GPGPU）多少年了你知道吗，10几年了。
相关编程工具早年用 Cg 后来 CUDA 。连cuda都快10年了。
GPU做DeepLearning是 GPGPU 自然的延伸
DL也远不止三年了。
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 如果现在NVDA吹嘘他们三年前就布局AI了，有多少人会相信？要知道资贷危机时，高盛
: 以极其苛刻的条件从buffet那儿借了$5B，才不致于倒闭。
|
d********e
发帖数: 1720 | 27
两周前我提醒过，但没料到狗绳会提前动手
http://www.mitbbs.com/article0/Stock/36861773_0.html
【在 g**u 的大作中提到】
: 这个信息是最近才 release 的吗？我的意思是散户在之前都是没法知道GS原来是大庄
: 家吗？
:
: for
|
d********e
发帖数: 1720 | |
x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 29 其实这10%全扔完，nvda起码还有60-70吧？
【在 d********e 的大作中提到】
: 以后按摩垫也会有两个这样的炸弹
|
d********e
发帖数: 1720 | 30
不知道会跌到哪，比dilution威胁更大的是按摩垫的vega, 不过要是到60-70就大胆上
船吧，VR/AR, AI, Autonomous Vehicle 三重热门.
【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】
: 其实这10%全扔完，nvda起码还有60-70吧？
|
|
|
x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 31 其实机构最可怕的是不告诉你它准备如何。
我们公司也有机构进来指挥，进来以后也是涨得不行，按理说应该获利走了，结果死活
不走继续推高股价。
现在nvda也是，按理说27 - 100怎么都赚了，但是机构也不一定满足这些，继续推高不
是不可能。而且推高也不会是一家，华尔街都不是单兵作战的，都是一起进退，现在说
不定还有团队空头进来了，怎么玩真不知道。
总之有空头发文，还是最好保守一点。
【在 d********e 的大作中提到】
:
: 不知道会跌到哪，比dilution威胁更大的是按摩垫的vega, 不过要是到60-70就大胆上
: 船吧，VR/AR, AI, Autonomous Vehicle 三重热门.
|
d********e
发帖数: 1720 | 32
上季度按摩店发行convertable notes，股价从8跌到大概5.7，如果用刻舟求剑法按比
例scale一下，NVDA会跌到85. LOL
【在 x*********n 的大作中提到】
: 其实机构最可怕的是不告诉你它准备如何。
: 我们公司也有机构进来指挥，进来以后也是涨得不行，按理说应该获利走了，结果死活
: 不走继续推高股价。
: 现在nvda也是，按理说27 - 100怎么都赚了，但是机构也不一定满足这些，继续推高不
: 是不可能。而且推高也不会是一家，华尔街都不是单兵作战的，都是一起进退，现在说
: 不定还有团队空头进来了，怎么玩真不知道。
: 总之有空头发文，还是最好保守一点。
|
g****t
发帖数: 4493 | 33 可惜没多少人看到你的帖子。NVDA当时买了等量的call来对冲这15亿刀的可转债，同
时又卖给高盛27刀的call来对冲。至今买可转债的和高盛都赚饱了。做实业的被做金融
的玩了。前阵子火上浇油推高股价的也是这批人。
【在 d********e 的大作中提到】
:
: 上季度按摩店发行convertable notes，股价从8跌到大概5.7，如果用刻舟求剑法按比
: 例scale一下，NVDA会跌到85. LOL
|
d********e
发帖数: 1720 | 34
可惜没多少人看到你的帖子。NVDA当时买了等量的call来对冲这15亿刀的可转债，同
哪里说NVDA当时买了等量的call？好像不能这么玩吧，就算回购股票都要先去SEC打个
报告，再说open market也不可能买到这么大量的call
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 可惜没多少人看到你的帖子。NVDA当时买了等量的call来对冲这15亿刀的可转债，同
: 时又卖给高盛27刀的call来对冲。至今买可转债的和高盛都赚饱了。做实业的被做金融
: 的玩了。前阵子火上浇油推高股价的也是这批人。
|
b****y
发帖数: 480 | 35 I agree with you.
【在 d********e 的大作中提到】
:
: 可惜没多少人看到你的帖子。NVDA当时买了等量的call来对冲这15亿刀的可转债，同
: 哪里说NVDA当时买了等量的call？好像不能这么玩吧，就算回购股票都要先去SEC打个
: 报告，再说open market也不可能买到这么大量的call
|
n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | |
p**u
发帖数: 89 | 37 妈了逼的，只能说NV被那个新女的CFO内奸给卖了
操！
很奇怪，当年NVDA只卖了五千万美元，他们真缺这五千万吗？三年前NVDA管理层在想
【在 g****t 的大作中提到】
: 很奇怪，当年NVDA只卖了五千万美元，他们真缺这五千万吗？三年前NVDA管理层在想
: 什么呢？听着像高盛给NVDA下了个套。高盛赚的这五十亿美元，按照Q3盈利5亿美元，
: NVDA要
: 不吃不喝10个季度才能赚回来。
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