s*********k
发帖数: 1989 | 1 Too few post here now. Let's do some PROB tests.
I have two below. Whoever asks correctly (vote by others, I do not have the
correct answer) gets baozi.
1) MTT, Avg Chip=25BB (middle stage). You raise with high cards and one
caller at position calls with low pair.
On turn, all low cards (ten below; no pair; flop, you cbet and villian calls
). What is the PROB the villian hits set already on turn?
2) MTT, final table, 5 left, Avg chip=35BB
You raise 2.3BB w/ AKs at BTN and BB 2.4x. You wondering whether BB has AA
or not.
What is the PROB that BB has AA | d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 2 my 2 cents in micro mtt
1) 额～ 这个信息少了点吧 如果对方是normal偏tight，check/fold吧
2）no brain shove unless you know BB well | s*********k
发帖数: 1989 | 3 This is PROB quest ONLY; not how-to-play best quest.
Only PROB concern. You get PROB first and then decide what to do with
consideration on the villian style.
【在 d*****0 的大作中提到】
: my 2 cents in micro mtt
: 1) 额～ 这个信息少了点吧 如果对方是normal偏tight，check/fold吧
: 2）no brain shove unless you know BB well
| M********g
发帖数: 717 | 4 It seems harder than i originally thought:
1. 4*(9-1)=32 cards from 2-9. suppose 2 in his hand, and another 2 to hit,
and no other low cards in the mucked hands(which is of course almost
impossible), the prob to have set or quads is: 1- C_28^4/C_30^4) = 1-20475/
27405=.25
if suppose 10 2-9 cards in those mucked 7 hands(reasonable assumption), and
the set mining guy still has 2 outs for the set: 1- C_18^4/C_20^4) = 1-3060/
4845=.368
if 1 out for the set: 1- C_19^4/C_20^4)=1-3876/4845*.2
So i will guess, the exact prob is around 30%, which is kinda high.
2. if you consider his 3 bet, the probability is his range's function
the
calls
【在 s*********k 的大作中提到】
: Too few post here now. Let's do some PROB tests.
: I have two below. Whoever asks correctly (vote by others, I do not have the
: correct answer) gets baozi.
: 1) MTT, Avg Chip=25BB (middle stage). You raise with high cards and one
: caller at position calls with low pair.
: On turn, all low cards (ten below; no pair; flop, you cbet and villian calls
: ). What is the PROB the villian hits set already on turn?
: 2) MTT, final table, 5 left, Avg chip=35BB
: You raise 2.3BB w/ AKs at BTN and BB 2.4x. You wondering whether BB has AA
: or not.
| d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 5 1) flop a set+ == 12%, say the probability of his giving up flop cbet is x%,
then the prob that he has set on turn P = 12% + (1-12%)*(1-x%)*2/45
if x == 50, p = 14%, if x == 0, p = 16%, if x == 33, p = 14.6%
2)假设bb 3bet against btn steal range 是ATs AJs KQs AQ AK and 99+,以及非常少
的air（忽略不计）， 减去你block的A和K，一共3（ATs）+3（AJs）+3（KQs）+12（AQ
）+9(AK)+6*4(99~QQ)+3(KK)+3(AA)＝60手
AA三手，所以我猜他有AA的概率是3/60大约5%，完全取决于BB的range。
请指正 |
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