p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 1 suppose we're dealt an SC (54s-JTs), we want to know the odds of flopping a
big draw, flush draw or 8-outer straight draw.
flush draw is trivial, total flop combo =(50 3)=19600. target flop combo =(
11 2)*(39 1)=2145. hence, Pr(FD)=2145/19600=10.94%.
somehow I cannot get the odds for straight draw (8 outers: OESD or double
belly) correct. the number I got is 9.7% whereas the correct number
available online (or from software) is 9.6%. could someone check to see what
's wrong with the following calculation? thx.
we consider 45s-JTs (excluding AKs or 23s etc), for example 78s:
case 1: double belly, the exact flops are 5-9-J or 4-6-T. so target flop
combo =4*4*4=64 for each flop, total combo=64*2=128.
case 2: paired flop, such as 9TT 99T, 699 669 566 556. target flop combo =(4
2)*(4 1)=24 for each, total combo=24*6=144.
case 3: non-paired OESD flop, such as 9TX, X=/= 9 or T or 6 or J; 56X and
69X, with X not making it paired flop or flopped str8. target flop combo =4*
4*34=544, total combo=544*3=1632. (Note that 34=52-2-4*4)
therefore, grand total of target flops =128+144+1632=1904. so, Pr(8 outer SD
)=1904/19600=9.71%. BUT this is different from the 9.6% OESD odds available
online. what goes wrong with this calc? | p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 2 OK, I figured out what's wrong. for 78o, the calculation is correct. but for
78s, an 8-out SD is meaningless if flop gives you a flush already. so, need
to remove 2+7*3=23 combo of flops, 2 from case 1, 7 of X in case 3.
therefore, grand total of target flops=1904-23=1881, pr(8-out SD)=1881/19600
=9.6%. | f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 3 zan!
for
need
19600
【在 p**********1 的大作中提到】
: OK, I figured out what's wrong. for 78o, the calculation is correct. but for
: 78s, an 8-out SD is meaningless if flop gives you a flush already. so, need
: to remove 2+7*3=23 combo of flops, 2 from case 1, 7 of X in case 3.
: therefore, grand total of target flops=1904-23=1881, pr(8-out SD)=1881/19600
: =9.6%.
| H****r
发帖数: 2801 | 4 不用准确到小数点后两位吧？
a
what
【在 p**********1 的大作中提到】
: suppose we're dealt an SC (54s-JTs), we want to know the odds of flopping a
: big draw, flush draw or 8-outer straight draw.
: flush draw is trivial, total flop combo =(50 3)=19600. target flop combo =(
: 11 2)*(39 1)=2145. hence, Pr(FD)=2145/19600=10.94%.
: somehow I cannot get the odds for straight draw (8 outers: OESD or double
: belly) correct. the number I got is 9.7% whereas the correct number
: available online (or from software) is 9.6%. could someone check to see what
: 's wrong with the following calculation? thx.
: we consider 45s-JTs (excluding AKs or 23s etc), for example 78s:
: case 1: double belly, the exact flops are 5-9-J or 4-6-T. so target flop
| p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 5 true, when you use it, you don't really need the exact number. for instance,
you probably only need to know ~10% chance for FD, ~10% for OESD, ~20%
chance flopping FD/OESD (19.1% to be exact), and 2% flopping flush or str8.
but when I tried to derive the numbers (to help myself memorize them), it's
different: if I cannot get the exact number, something must be wrong.
【在 H****r 的大作中提到】
: 不用准确到小数点后两位吧？
:
: a
: what
| W********m
发帖数: 7793 | |
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