l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 September 27, 2012 by Doug Johnson
Obama’s lapdog media is going “balls to the wall” to convince voters that
Obama is currently trouncing challenger Mitt Romney. The problem is to get
their polling data to support their preferred narrative they have to assume
that Democratic voters are even more enamored with Obama than they were in
2008. Of course they won’t tell you that because no rational person would
believe that Barack Obama is riding a wave of support greater than is
historic 2008 support.
Others are covering how pollsters are reaching wildly different conclusions
by over sampling expected turnout of various groups – see the links at the
bottom of this post for more on that.
At the most basic level though it’s a numbers game – carry your base and
win independents/undecideds. Obama has lost significant subsets of support
in independents/undecideds and quantitative and anecdotal observations show
that there is clearly not the same level of voter optimism in the man or his
message among the Democratic base. This shows up in party affiliation
polling.
Examine the Rasmussen survey of party affiliation. I’ve tightened it down
to the election periods since 2004. Think of is as a substitute for a
generic ballot poll.
Summary of Party Affiliation
August 31, 2012
Republican
Democrat
Other
R – D
Quarterly
2012
Aug
37.6%
33.3%
29.2%
4.3%
Jul
34.9%
34.0%
31.1%
0.9%
Jun
35.4%
34.0%
30.5%
1.4%
1.8%
May
35.7%
33.8%
30.5%
1.9%
Apr
35.1%
33.1%
31.8%
2.0%
Mar
36.4%
33.4%
30.2%
3.0%
3.3%
Feb
36.0%
32.4%
31.6%
3.6%
Jan
35.9%
32.5%
31.6%
3.4%
2010
Dec
37.0%
33.7%
29.3%
3.3%
0.6%
Nov
36.0%
34.7%
29.3%
1.3%
Oct
33.4%
36.3%
30.3%
-2.9%
2008
Dec
32.8%
41.6%
25.6%
-8.8%
-7.8%
Nov
33.8%
41.4%
24.7%
-7.6%
Oct
33.3%
40.3%
26.4%
-7.1%
2006
Dec
31.1%
38.0%
30.8%
-6.9%
-6.4%
Nov
31.4%
37.5%
31.2%
-6.1%
Oct
31.5%
37.7%
30.7%
-6.2%
2004
Dec
37.1%
38.8%
24.1%
-1.7%
-1.6%
Nov
37.1%
38.6%
24.3%
-1.6%
Oct
37.2%
38.7%
24.1%
-1.5%
What you should note is how accurately it predicts what actually happened in
the elections in those years.
In 2004 George Bush narrowly defeated John Kerry; in 2006 Democrats retook
control of the House and Senate; in 2008 Obama trounced John McCain; and in
2010 Republicans retook the House and made a serious dent in the Senate.
In 2012 Republican affiliation is at record highs, and Mitt Romney is
winning Independents usually on the order of 60/40 over Obama. With each
candidate taking 90% or more of their parties identified voters, the numbers
don’t add up to a big Obama lead, they just don’t. | r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 2 我就说过，不要相信这些所谓的民调。这些亲民主党媒体的民调是想让ROMNEY的支持者
在投票日呆在家里。无论支持谁，请记住，一定要做好选民登记，总统投票日走出家门
去投票。美国将来要中美洲化或仍然维持第一强国的地位，把握在你我手中！ |
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