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发帖数: 29846 | 1 October 26, 2012 Posted by Warner Todd Huston
In keeping with the “Mittmentum” that we are seeing in many states and
swing states across the country, New Hampshire is for the first time looking
more like a lovely purple color tinged heavily in red with polls showing
Mitt Romney topping President Obama there for the first time.
With less than two weeks to go, historically blue New Hampshire is showing a
50% Romney to 48% Obama result in Rasmussen’s latest polling. Rasmussen
has shown a steady move forward for Romney for some time. In October,
Rasmussen had NH at 48-48 and in June Obama was up 48% to Romney’s 43%.
In recent history New Hampshire has since 1992 gone mostly for Democrats for
President. Obama won New Hampshire in 2008. Dem. John Kerry also won the
state in 2004. Though Bush won by a sparse 1.2 percent in 2000, the state
was back to blue in 1996 and 92 when it went for Clinton, twice.
Along with Romney’s gain, the Governor’s race in the Granite State has
been a tossup all along with Republican candidate Ovide Lamontagne coming in
currently at 48% while Democrat candidate Maggie Hassan stands at 46%. But
the numbers for the guv’s race have been fading back and forth with rarely
more than a few percentage points between them for quite some time.
As to the House races (no Senators are up this year), New Hampshire does
have incumbent Republicans in both its House seats and both are up for re-
election. In the 1st District is Republican Frank Guinta, and in the 2nd is
Charlie Bass.
While conservative activists may not be overly thrilled with either
Republican Congressman, at least one of them might be able to keep his seat.
Frank Guinta, who faces Democrat Carol Shea-Porter is rated at plus 10
right now in the RealClearPolitics averages. News is not as sanguine for
Charlie Bass who faces Democrat Ann McLane Kuster. The RCP average for that
race currently Kuster at a plus 3.
In the mean time, Politifact has had a field day knocking down the “pants-
on-fire” claims of the Democrats in New Hampshire.
Here are just a few of the false claims made by Carol Shea-Porter, Ann
McLane Kuster, and the Democrat Party of NH:
Shea-Porter falsely claims Frank Guinta voted to cut funds for veterans
FALSE: Kuster said Charlie Bass forfeits right to equal rates with TV ad
NH Dems lie about Charlie Bass’ relationship with Big Oil
Kuster “stretches truth” on Bass’ stance on Social Security
NH Dems lie about Gunita’s vote for House budget
Kuster’s recycled attack on Charlie Bass still false
As Romney surges in swing states and as he gains in New Hampshire, the
expectation is that he provides coat tails for the down ticket Republicans
on Election Day. With the races in the Granite state so close, even a tiny
bit of help will push New Hampshire red. |
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