t******g
发帖数: 1667 | 1 赫粪吨邮报是一个典型的左棍杂志，一群liberal群魔乱舞，经常发一些混淆是非的文
章，从初选开始就不遗余力的抹黑Trump。最近出来一遍被翻译成中文的文章：“美国
大选内华达州提前投票 希拉里几乎稳胜”。这个“稳胜”是怎么得出来的？看看这段
话：
“据美国《赫芬顿邮报》10月30日报道，美国内华达州州务卿当日发布了选民提前投票
数据报告。民主党注册选民的投票率比共和党注册选民的投票率高了将近7%，而在2012
年总统大选中，奥巴马就是在内华达以6.6%的优势击败罗姆尼的。”
咋一看，奥巴马当年胜罗木妮6.6%，那现在希拉里“胜”Trump 7%，岂不“稳胜”。但
如果再细看，就能发现其中的猫腻。这里作者有意无意偷换了两个概念，早期投票率和
最后得票率。民主党一直鼓动选民早投票，所以早期投票率高于共和党不奇怪。还有一
点很关键，民主党的注册选民，一定会投希拉里吗？今年大选跟往年截然不同，希拉里
一直丑闻缠身，到底有多少民主党选民会投她，还真不一定。
赫粪吨邮报在FBI重启调查希拉里后跳出来发这么个垃圾文章，撒泼打滚，偷换概念，
目的不过是为了误导选民，打击Trump支持者的信心而已 | p****4
发帖数: 444 | | b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 3 Voted-by-Mail (Returned)
Rep: 19,006 (+28 from 10/29)
DEM: 16,857 (+17 from 10/29)
Other (Independents): 8,620 (+22 from 10/29)
Total Returned: 44,483 (+67 from 10/29)
#Trump(Rep): 42.7% (same from 10/29)
#HRC(Dem): 37.9% (same from 10/29)
Other (Independents): 19.4% (same from 10/29)
Early Voting (Only)
Rep: 120,304 (+936 from 10/29)
DEM: 150,484 (+470 from 10/29)
Other (Independents): 66,272 (+356 from 10/29)
Total Voted: 337,059 (+1,762 from 10/29)
#Trump(Rep): 35.7% (+0.1% from 10/29)
#HRC(Dem): 44.7% (same from 10/29)
Other (Independents): 19.7% (same from 10/29)
29,187 more registered Democrats (D Voted Early: 139,281) Voted Early
compared to Republicans (R Voted Early: 110,094) in Week 1 of the 2012
Presidential Election. When comparing 2016 to 2012 (Week 1 Only), Democrats
are up (D: 30,180 {2016} to D: 29,141 {2012}) by 1,039 more early votes than
2012.
The lead for Democrats was 9.7% when looking at their % (D: 46.0% {2012} / R
comparing 2016’s % to 2012’s % (Week 1 Only), Democrats are (D: 9.0% {2016
} to D: 9.7% {2012}) down by 0.7% less early votes than 2012.
You can track this daily at the following link
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
Actual votes from the mail-in-process and early voting won’t be counted
until Election Day. One can assume that Republicans are most likely Trump
votes while Democrats are HRC votes. When data is shared on early voting
historically, that assumption is used.
The good news is that the Axiom state poll from 10/23, 3% more Democrats are
voting for Trump than HRC (21% D for Trump while 18% R for HRC). Also Other
(Independents) has also been breaking for Trump. In Axiom’s most recent
state poll on 10/23, Trump was winning I by 19%. If we take the Axiom state
poll data, the likelihood of the tallies above would translate as follows in
votes mailed or early voted so far:
R – 114,234 (R voting for Trump) + 35,142 (D voting for Trump) + 44,561 (I
voting for Trump) = 193,937 Total Votes
D – 132,199 (D voting for HRC) + 25,076 (R voting for HRC) + 30,331 (I
voting for HRC) = 187,606 Total Votes
Trump = 50.8%
HRC = 49.2%
Folks this is starting to get scary! We were only up 1.0 on Friday (Trump =
50.5% to HRC = 49.5%) and are now up 1.6 points!
2012 | L**i
发帖数: 22365 | 4 early voting和12年差不多，以注册党派来看
clark一个county就能决定整个state……
如果能多争取点中立派也许有戏，当然了，谁也不知道民主党是不是投clinton
【在 p****4 的大作中提到】
: 内华达的情况到底怎么样？
| w****h
发帖数: 1344 | 5 Most of the DEM lead are from Clark county. You could get the voting
history here.
http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/election/Pages/ElectionHistory.aspx
Obama vs Romney 56.4% vs 41.8 in 2012. Obama won by 14.6%.
This a democratic county. So there is no doubt the majority of the votes
are registered as DEM. But how many of those Democratic would actually vote
for Hillary?
I, myself was a registered Dem before 2016. But I will vote for TRUMP.
I believe many of those democratic will do the same.
2012
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: 赫粪吨邮报是一个典型的左棍杂志，一群liberal群魔乱舞，经常发一些混淆是非的文
: 章，从初选开始就不遗余力的抹黑Trump。最近出来一遍被翻译成中文的文章：“美国
: 大选内华达州提前投票 希拉里几乎稳胜”。这个“稳胜”是怎么得出来的？看看这段
: 话：
: “据美国《赫芬顿邮报》10月30日报道，美国内华达州州务卿当日发布了选民提前投票
: 数据报告。民主党注册选民的投票率比共和党注册选民的投票率高了将近7%，而在2012
: 年总统大选中，奥巴马就是在内华达以6.6%的优势击败罗姆尼的。”
: 咋一看，奥巴马当年胜罗木妮6.6%，那现在希拉里“胜”Trump 7%，岂不“稳胜”。但
: 如果再细看，就能发现其中的猫腻。这里作者有意无意偷换了两个概念，早期投票率和
: 最后得票率。民主党一直鼓动选民早投票，所以早期投票率高于共和党不奇怪。还有一
| d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 6 今年初选赢得大部分都是open primary州，他的momentum很多来自主党和independent
vote
【在 w****h 的大作中提到】
: Most of the DEM lead are from Clark county. You could get the voting
: history here.
: http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/election/Pages/ElectionHistory.aspx
: Obama vs Romney 56.4% vs 41.8 in 2012. Obama won by 14.6%.
: This a democratic county. So there is no doubt the majority of the votes
: are registered as DEM. But how many of those Democratic would actually vote
: for Hillary?
: I, myself was a registered Dem before 2016. But I will vote for TRUMP.
: I believe many of those democratic will do the same.
:
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