z**x
发帖数: 3629 | 1 最近月亮老多事了。
上次是月食，还是红的。
这次是满月，还整上了周五13号。
http://www.vox.com/2014/6/12/5801196/tomorrow-is-friday-the-13t
Tomorrow is Friday the 13th and a full moon. That won't happen again until
2049 |
g***r
发帖数: 6820 | 2 大家觉得下面这段概率分析靠谱吗？
On average, there are 12.37 full moons in a year and 365.25 days in a year (
because of leap years). So the odds of any one day being a full moon are 3.
39 percent (we're going to do some rounding here).
There are seven days in a week, so the odds of any one day being a Friday
are 1 in 7, or 14.29 percent.
There are 12 13th's in a year (each month has exactly one). So the odds of
any one day being a 13th is 12/365.25, or 3.29 percent.
To get the odds of any one day being all three of these things, simply
multiply the percentages by each other. The result is .0159 percent.
Then, to get the odds of a year having this happen, you multiply by 365.25
— so the odds of a year having a Friday the 13th full moon are just 5.81
percent. That means it happens, on average, every 20 years or so.
【在 z**x 的大作中提到】
: 最近月亮老多事了。
: 上次是月食，还是红的。
: 这次是满月，还整上了周五13号。
: http://www.vox.com/2014/6/12/5801196/tomorrow-is-friday-the-13t
: Tomorrow is Friday the 13th and a full moon. That won't happen again until
: 2049
|
C******e
发帖数: 412 | 3 都是月亮惹的祸
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.7
【在 z**x 的大作中提到】
: 最近月亮老多事了。
: 上次是月食，还是红的。
: 这次是满月，还整上了周五13号。
: http://www.vox.com/2014/6/12/5801196/tomorrow-is-friday-the-13t
: Tomorrow is Friday the 13th and a full moon. That won't happen again until
: 2049
|
G*******h
发帖数: 1391 | 4 从小概率就没学好。
但是我觉得更精确的分析应该考虑到Friaday，13th，以及月圆之间的相关性，因为他
们并不是完全独立不相关的。
(
【在 g***r 的大作中提到】
: 大家觉得下面这段概率分析靠谱吗？
: On average, there are 12.37 full moons in a year and 365.25 days in a year (
: because of leap years). So the odds of any one day being a full moon are 3.
: 39 percent (we're going to do some rounding here).
: There are seven days in a week, so the odds of any one day being a Friday
: are 1 in 7, or 14.29 percent.
: There are 12 13th's in a year (each month has exactly one). So the odds of
: any one day being a 13th is 12/365.25, or 3.29 percent.
: To get the odds of any one day being all three of these things, simply
: multiply the percentages by each other. The result is .0159 percent.
|
g***r
发帖数: 6820 | 5 我觉着这几个根本不是随机事件，何来概率一说……
【在 G*******h 的大作中提到】
: 从小概率就没学好。
: 但是我觉得更精确的分析应该考虑到Friaday，13th，以及月圆之间的相关性，因为他
: 们并不是完全独立不相关的。
:
: (
|
h*****i
发帖数: 9112 | 6 卖场也不为此整个促销啥的？
【在 z**x 的大作中提到】
: 最近月亮老多事了。
: 上次是月食，还是红的。
: 这次是满月，还整上了周五13号。
: http://www.vox.com/2014/6/12/5801196/tomorrow-is-friday-the-13t
: Tomorrow is Friday the 13th and a full moon. That won't happen again until
: 2049
|
w****r
发帖数: 17566 | 7 ah 是看到今天月亮特别圆。。
【在 z**x 的大作中提到】
: 最近月亮老多事了。
: 上次是月食，还是红的。
: 这次是满月，还整上了周五13号。
: http://www.vox.com/2014/6/12/5801196/tomorrow-is-friday-the-13t
: Tomorrow is Friday the 13th and a full moon. That won't happen again until
: 2049
|
b*s
发帖数: 82482 | 8 纽约晚上大雨……
ah 是看到今天月亮特别圆。。
【在 w****r 的大作中提到】
: ah 是看到今天月亮特别圆。。
|
