L****a
发帖数: 572 | 1 标 题: bought ENER call to bet ER
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 25 10:30:57 2009, 美东)
I think ENER's earning was pretty much under-estimated by
analysts. Let's see who is right ! |
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 2 Current concensus estimate $-0.05.
ER day : 27 Aug before market open. |
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 3 Sold out calls this morning right after market open.
ENER's future looks quite dismal. The main problem
seems there's a lot of pricing presure there. I think
people should unload if they are currently holding . |
s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 4 I don't know why you are tring to bet on it.
I thought its thin film business was essentially dead. It should shut down
that business and do some other stuff, like battery?
It's just my impression. Of course I might be deadly wrong since I didn't
bother to do research on it.
【在 L****a 的大作中提到】
: Sold out calls this morning right after market open.
: ENER's future looks quite dismal. The main problem
: seems there's a lot of pricing presure there. I think
: people should unload if they are currently holding .
|
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 5 It's just a very short-term bet. I expected their sales should bounce back as other companies, and analysts' estimation is very bad (-0.05). If there's any revenue rebounce, they should have been easily able to surpass estimation. But they don't. They are in thin-film business. But not all thin-film are the same. Their products are unique, and there's no competitaor out there. It's different from normal a-Si thin-film on glasses product. I didn't look into too much details. From their ER, I thin
【在 s**********n 的大作中提到】
: I don't know why you are tring to bet on it.
: I thought its thin film business was essentially dead. It should shut down
: that business and do some other stuff, like battery?
: It's just my impression. Of course I might be deadly wrong since I didn't
: bother to do research on it.
|
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 6 I guess a lot of people have noticed ENER's crazy runs in the past couple of
days. Here is the explanation and my comments :
发信人: Laputa (以德糊人), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Why ENER was so strong in the last hour?
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Sep 12 01:01:03 2009, 美东)
Huge short covering. Rumor said it's gonna be bought out by AMAT.
I think such speculation is reasonable, since AMAT already has SunFab
business, which is a-Si on glasses. But I think the likelihood is less than
20%. On the other hand, ENER has 35% |
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 7 Core earning wise, ENER deserves this low level-price. But technology wise,
it could be valued much higher. It will be completely understandable if AMAT
bought it with $28 price, although I don't think it's very likely because
ENER's corporate structure is really complicated. It's just not so easy to
integrate into AMAT's business. |
L****a
发帖数: 572 | 8 I have a feeling that this time the rumor (AMAT is gonna buy ENER) is real. The problem of ENER is that its operating cost is too high to maintain a positive cash flow in the future. By selling to AMAT, the operating problem could be offloaded to AMAT. Furthermore, ENER's proprietary flexible a-Si thin-film panel complements AMAT's SunFab business (which is glasses-based a-Si panel) very well, therefore AMAT's interest in ENER is very well justified. |
