B*S
发帖数: 1328 | 1 I know I am not supposed to do this here. But both the view point and
the conclusion are interesting...
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In a recent report Stöferle went on to say:
1) The Dow/gold ratio suggests a possible future $10,400 price
for gold.
At 8.5x the Dow/gold ratio is currently slightly above the long-term
median of 8x. This means that gold is still relatively inexpensive in
comparison with the Dow Jones. Bull markets tend to end in euphoria and
excess, however, which is why we expect substantially lower values. In
1932 the ratio was 2x, and at the end of the last bull market the ratio
was 1x. Erste’s analysts thinks that values of 1-2x might be reached
again as a result of the secular bull market. Under the assumption of a
constant Dow Jones index, gold would therefore have to rise to USD
$10,400/ounce.
2) The gold/S&P 500 ratio suggests possible future $6,000 Gold.
Currently the gold/S&P 500 ratio is almost exactly on its long-term
median of 1x. Looking at the development in the 1970s, we expect a
dynamic increase. Bull markets do not end around the long-term median –
they end in extremis. In order to reach 6x, gold would have to increase
to more than USD $6,000/ounce given a constant S&P index.
3) The gold/silver ratio suggests a future price for silver
between $75 and $650.
Currently the gold/silver ratio is about 60x and thus above the median
of 55x albeit below the long-term average since 1970 of 68x. A low was
hit in 1920, when 15 ounces of silver would buy one ounce of gold. 1940
saw a row of historical highs, when one ounce of gold bought 100 ounces
of silver and we experienced similar values again in 1990.
Looking back over the centuries, we find that gold has been
substantially more expensive since the beginning of the 20th century
than in the previous three centuries. The long-term median (since 1687)
is 15.7x. This also reflected the actual ratio of physical supplies:
gold is about 17 times more scarce than silver. According to USGS, the
measured and assumed silver resources are about six times as high as
those of gold. Therefore silver is at the moment clearly undervalued at
relative to gold.
[Using a gold:silver ratio of 16:1 equates to a price of $75 per ounce
for silver based on the current ballpark price of $1,200 per ounce for
gold and suggests a price of $650 if gold were to reach a parabolic top
of $10,400.]
Silver is, like gold, a monetary metal, but the relevance for the
industrial sector is much higher than that of gold. This is why silver
tends to outperform gold in economic upswings, whereas gold usually
outperforms silver in periods of stress.
4) A global gold mining Index/gold ratio suggests higher prices
for gold and silver mining shares.
Currently the gold mining Index/gold ratio is 1.7x and thus above the
long term median of 1.4x. A rise indicates that gold shares are
outperforming gold. Since the beginning of the bull market shares gold
mining shares have performed more or less in line with the gold price.
5) The gold/oil ratio suggests future prices in excess of $3,150
and $250 respectively.
Oil and gold have a strong positive correlation with each other. Both
commodities are traded in US dollars and tend to increase when the
dollar depreciates against the most important currencies. Also, oil is
one of the most important indicators for inflation and thus also for the
gold market. On top of that, the argument that oil production is about
to see its peak (“peak oil”) can also be applied to gold along similar
lines. The constant purchasing power of gold can also be measured in
terms of this ratio. For example, one ounce of oil today buys the same
amount of oil as in 1945, 1982, and 2000.
A recent ratio of 15-16x is slightly above the long-term median. The
all-time high was set in 1973, when one ounce of gold would have bought
42 barrels of oil. On the other hand, in 2008 the ratio hit its
historical low at less than six barrels per ounce.
[Looking at the extremes if gold were to reach the $10,400 mentioned
above a 42:1 gold:oil ratio would put oil at $250; the long term median
ratio of 15-16:1 would put oil at an unbelievable $650-$700 per barrel;
the extreme ratio of 6:1 would put oil at an astronomical $1,733.33 per
barrel. Conversely, applying the 42:1 ratio to the current price range
of oil around $75 and $80 would put gold at between $3,150 and $3,360
while, for what it is worth, a 6:1 ratio would put gold at between $450
and $480.]
Conclusion
The long-term comparison of gold and other asset classes paints a
clearly positive picture. While many ratios are close to the median,
this goes to show that the current valuation is certainly not excessive.
It is therefore also very easy to rebut the heavily cited argument of
the “gold bubble”.
Bull markets end in euphoria, and this substantiates our argument in
favor of an imminent transition to an accelerated trend phase to
somewhere between $3,000 and $10,400 per ounce for gold, between $75 and
$650 per ounce for silver and in excess of $250 per barrel for crude
oil. |
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