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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: wagmal (超级偶像，工藤静香), 信区: Stock
标 题: 关于UNG的很好分析
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jun 12 19:42:01 2009, 美东)
意思就是，如果你想long 天然气，不要买UNG，而是买天然气生产企业的股票，你想浪
石油，不要买USO，而是买XLE，如果想浪农产品，不要买DBA，买MOO。
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=51477&tid=34061&mid=34061&tof=4&frt=4#34061
UNG Roll 11-Jun-09 05:36 pm
I am going to try to explain objectivly to those that are confused.
If you own UNG you do not own Natural Gas per se. You own a share in a
portfolio of July NYMEX And ICE futures contracts and July swaps on natural
gas.
These futures are an obligation to purchase and take delivery of 10,000
mmBTU or 2,500 mmBTU depending on the contract of Natrual Gas at the Henry
Hub which is in Lousisanna. This is to be done on a certain date in the
future. Hence the term futures contract. If you own the contract at
expiration you are going to get gas delivered to you -- and you will be
legally obligated to take the delivery.
The way to avoid this is to sell the contracts that you are long before they
expire. To do this the UNG sells the July contract and buys the August
contract. This process is called rolling and the time that they do it is
called the roll period. Eventhough its a "July" contract the contract
expires in June. The announced roll dates for the UNG are designed to occur
before the expiration of the July contract.
We are talking about the July contract because that is the front month. UNG
buys the front month contract and stays in the front month contract.
The reason people are talking about a contango market is because (for
example) today's settle for the July contract was $3.93 and for the August
it was $4.15 which is a spread of $.21 or 5.44%. This $.21 spread is the
contango that people are complaining about. This is a cost of carrying the
gas into the future. Think of it as a storage cost or something like that.
If the spread was negative then it would be a backwardated market. But its
not so it its a contango.
During the roll the UNG traders will sell the $3.93 July gas and buy the $4.
15 August contract. They will buy fewer contracts of August because the
August contract is more expensive.
It is reasonable to expect that this will cause some level of volitility in
the natural gas market.
Remember you are not long gas with this fund. You instead own a fund whose
value is derrived from the value of the front month NYMEX futures contract
for natural gas. This is a derivative of a derivative. Issues specifically
associated with futures trading will impact this fund as will the
fundamentals of natural gas supply and demand.
Options on the USG are a derivative of a derivative of a derivative.
The implied volitility of the options on the UNG is the derivative of a
derivative of a derivative of a derivative.
This stuff is complex.
There is no other way to really be long the commodity of natural gas as in
investor unless you want to trade futures. You can't exactly take it our of
your gas line at home and store in a hole in the ground, and then sell it
later. If this is confusing you may be better off owning good quality
natural gas stocks or an ETF which invests in natural gas E&P companies. | g*********1
发帖数: 359 | 2 RE，细细挖掘一下，金矿不少。有的有时效性，有点至今依旧有借鉴意义。 |
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