u****d
发帖数: 23938 | | f**********g
发帖数: 2252 | 2 (Adds comments from Japan, Turkey, G-20 source)
GYEONGJU, South Korea -(Dow Jones)- A proposal among the Group of 20 nations
to target curbs on current-account imbalances, meant to avert a "currency
war," itself ran into opposition from industrial and developing nations
Friday.
But there were indications the proposal, championed by the U.S. and South
Korea, the host of the G-20 meetings in Gyeongju, might garner greater
support if any caps on surpluses and deficits were made non-binding.
The idea is for the world's biggest industrial and developing economies to
agree on limits for their external imbalances as a way to ... | p********e
发帖数: 1960 | 3 GYEONGJU, South Korea -(Dow Jones)- A proposal among the Group of 20 nations
to target curbs on current-account imbalances, meant to avert a "currency
war," itself ran into opposition from industrial and developing nations
Friday.
But there were indications the proposal, championed by the U.S. and South
Korea, the host of the G-20 meetings in Gyeongju, might garner greater
support if any caps on surpluses and deficits were made non-binding.
The idea is for the world's biggest industrial and developing economies to
agree on limits for their external imbalances as a way to "rebalance" global
growth away from an over-reliance on U.S. consumers buying goods from Asian
and other export powerhouses. The U.S. and Korea proposed limiting
imbalances to 4% of each country's gross domestic product by 2015, according
to Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda.
This could be a way to get countries like China, which are skittish about
making commitments on currency policy, to agree to measures to rebalance the
economy while avoiding a head-on clash over currencies.
The U.S. and China, in particular, have been locked for months in an
acrimonious debate over currencies. The U.S. says an undervalued yuan is
hindering the global rebalancing, while China says the Federal Reserve's
loose monetary policy is "irresponsible," as it has driven massive,
potentially destabilizing flows of capital into emerging nations.
Targeting external imbalances, however, isn't proving easy either.
Major exporters like Japan and Germany, whose export-led growth models have
built up major trade surpluses, as well as developing nations like Turkey,
are opposing binding targets. Japan and Germany say their governments can't
engineer such macroeconomic outcomes that are mostly determined by the
economic activity of private companies and individuals.
"The idea of setting numerical targets is unrealistic," Japan's Noda said. "
But the G-20 has to draw some conclusion. While I am dubious about the idea
of setting strict numerical goals, I think it may be acceptable to use them
as reference numbers."
Tokyo's opposition also likely reflects the worry that agreeing to curb its
surplus would involve letting the yen rise, this person said. Japan dumped
Y2 trillion on the currency markets last month, its first intervention in
six years, but the yen has strengthened again and is now near a record-high
against the dollar.
A person close to another G-20 government said the group broadly "welcomed"
the proposal but that there were two important caveats.
-Any goals on current-account surpluses and deficits would need to be
branded as an "indicator," rather than as a target.
-Germany would have to be counted as part of the European Union, rather than
as a single nation. While Germany has a large current-account surplus, the
EU as a whole is broadly balanced.
For their part, German officials declined to comment on the plan Friday but
showed no signs of softening their traditional hostility toward intervening
in the economy to reduce the current-account surplus.
Berlin has said it is neither legally able nor philosophically inclined to
interfere with its economy in ways necessary to cut its surplus. The
Bundesbank argues that it is natural for countries with aging populations to
save more than they invest, though critics say older Germans show no sign
of drawing down those savings as they retire.
Among developing economies, Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan said
the G-20 likely won't agree in Gyeongju on any targets.
"I know there are countries who want to see" numbers in the final communique
Saturday, Babacan told Dow Jones Newswires. "But I have doubts that there's
going to be a consensus for that."
An internal Bank of France document, viewed by Dow Jones Newswires,
identifies important drawbacks to the proposal, namely that it's "
analytically and economically unsound." But because it gave policy
flexibility and ensured consistency across economies, it "may thus
contribute to appease tensions without committing anybody to a specific
exchange-rate policy."
"This may explain why China and the U.S. seem to agree at this stage on this
measure," the French document said, but added there's "strong hostility by
other surplus economies such as Germany, Japan, Canada and European
Commission."
Korea hopes the current-account idea can bridge differences between the U.S.
and China.
"If you focus only on exchange rates, you miss the main goal, which is
strong and sustainable growth," a senior Korean official told Dow Jones
Newswires. "Exchange rates are just one of the tools."
The official said "China is considering it as one of many proposals," adding
that "it's better than talking just about currencies, as it leaves to China
to choose whatever policy tool" they want to achieve the target.
In Friday's meeting, China didn't appear to offer "any clear, straight
answers" to the proposal, Japan's Noda said. Chinese officials declined
comment on Friday's meetings. But the current-account idea received a boost
after People's Bank of China Deputy Gov. Yi Gang said Oct. 10 that China is
planning policies that could result in its surplus falling below 4% of gross
domestic product in three to five years, from about 5.8% in 2009.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is lobbying hard for the current-
account proposal.
"G-20 countries should commit to undertake policies consistent with reducing
external imbalances below a specified share of GDP over the next few years,
" Geithner said in a letter to his G-20 counterparts before the Gyeongju
meeting. Countries running large external surpluses should undertake "
structural, fiscal and exchange-rate policies to boost domestic sources of
growth and support global demand."
In the letter seen by Dow Jones, Geithner also said G-20 countries should "
commit to refrain from exchange rate policies designed to achieve
competitive advantage by either weakening their currency or preventing
appreciation of an undervalued currency." |
|
