T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 1 American aggregate saving is negative.
Do you understand what it means?
美国穷人加富人总共的消费大于产出！
美国总体资本是inflow, not outflow.
懂吗？
还要提高消费？ |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 2 October 3, 2012 Posted by DJ Drummond
Imagine I took a poll of delegates at the 2012 GOP National Convention. Let
’s say I made sure the gender, race, age, education, and other demographics
apart from party affiliation were carefully matched to voter norms. Would
you be happy with such a poll?
If you are a Republican, maybe, but obviously not if you are a Democrat. A
lot of folks would be quick to point out that Mitt Romney would pretty much
crush Barack Obama in such a poll. The flip side ... 阅读全帖 |
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 3 lz, do you happen to know more GOP lean poll aggregation? Only one I know of
is Karl Rove, but his latest map isnt look good for GOP. |
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 4 Why you guys just want to ignore RCP? RCP itself is a right lean poll
aggregator but its data are quite neutral. |
|
f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 5 Poll aggregators 538 site and Princeton election consortium are best
predictors with 50 out of 50 states correct as of now. Saying as of now is
FL has been formally called out yet. |
|
d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 6 Multiple reports of welfare abuse have hit the headlines in recent weeks,
from a million-dollar lottery winner receiving food stamps to a
Massachusetts drug dealer attempting to use welfare cash to post bail and an
Alabama nightclub advertising a “Food Stamp Friday” party.
These examples highlight the need to reform a welfare system that is
contributing to a culture of entitlement. A crucial element of reform is
tackling the ballooning costs of the welfare state, which has become the
fastest gro... 阅读全帖 |
|
g***y
发帖数: 1268 | 7 如果中产阶级没有大量的选票，政府也不会有这种政策。
参见director's law: from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director%27s_Law
Director's law states that the bulk of public programs are designed
primarily to benefit the middle classes but are financed by taxes paid
primarily by the upper and lower classes. The empirically derived law was
first proposed by economist Aaron Director.
The philosophy of Director's law is that, based on the size of its
population and its aggregate wealth, the middle class will always be the
dominant... 阅读全帖 |
|
g***y
发帖数: 1268 | 8 美国之所以两党是现在这个模样，之所以ron paul被边缘化，就是因为中产阶级。
大家可以先wiki一下什么是Director's law.
美国federal government几乎所有不合理的政策都可以找出中产阶级的原因。
1. budget里面最大的两个炸弹，social security and medicare的收益者是中产阶级。
2. Iraq war, 当年为什么大家都支持？ 因为中产阶级的SUV tank太大了，需要便宜油。
3. Subsidize farmer, 因为中产阶级需要low food price.
4. Bubbles, 无论房市和股市，中产阶级需要equity 来支持奢侈糜烂的生活方式，需
要膨胀养老金。fed用0 interest rate，cheap money，政府用tax deduction (
loophole) 来来帮助中产阶级养房.
5. 工会政策，无论是蓝领工会，AMA, bar association, 收益人都是中产阶级。最可
笑的是码工说我们没有工会，但是我们还是有高收入，其实是国家通过h1签证限制，保
证high tech永远... 阅读全帖 |
|
t**********3
发帖数: 12623 | 9 breitbart.com
Who is Andrew Breibart?
Andrew Breitbart (February 1, 1969 – March 1, 2012) was a conservative
American publisher, commentator for The Washington Times, author, and
occasional guest commentator on various news programs, who served as an
editor for the Drudge Report website.[6] He was a researcher for Arianna
Huffington, and helped launch her web publication The Huffington Post.
He owned the news aggregation site, Breitbart.com, and five other websites:
Breitbart.tv, Big Hollywood, ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 10 By KATHLEEN MADIGAN
And RUTH MANTELL
CONNECT
Private-sector employment gains picked up slightly in September, as
businesses added 166,000 jobs, according to a hiring report that has taken
on more importance as a timely measure of the labor market amid the likely
delay of the government's monthly statistics.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected the monthly report from payroll
processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP -1.28% and forecasting firm
Moody's Analytics to show an increase of 178... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 11 Obama to Announce Yearlong Delay of Online Enrollment for Small Businesses
by Jammie
It’s the season of giving, but Obama’s not giving up quite yet. Although
this is pretty much a death blow to the ObamaCare debacle.
Marking the latest HealthCare.gov setback, the Obama administration
today will announce a yearlong delay of online enrollment for small
businesses looking to purchase health coverage through federal-run exchanges
, according to an HHS notice obtained by POLITICO.
Small busin... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 Dissent is Forbidden: Obama Looks to Jail Another Film Maker
by Jammie
Conservative filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza, whose documentary 2016: Obama’s
America took a critical look at President Barack Obama and was a surprise
hit in 2012, will be arrested in New York on Friday for allegedly violating
campaign-finance laws, The Hollywood Reporter has learned.
Federal authorities accuse D’Souza of donating more than is legal to the
campaign of Wendy Long, who ran in 2012 for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by
... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 13 High Rates of Serious Medical Conditions in New Plans Put Pressure on
Premiums
June 24, 2014 8:34 p.m. ET
People enrolled in new plans under the health law are showing higher rates
of serious health conditions than other insurance customers, putting
pressure on insurers around the country as they prepare to propose rates for
next year. WSJ's Christopher Weaver joins Simon Constable on The News Hub
to discuss. Photo: Getty
People enrolled in new plans under the health law are showing higher rat... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 14 by Andre Walker 15 Aug 2014
As exclusively reported by Breitbart London last week, Muhammed has been
crowned Britain's most popular boys name in figures published by the Office
of National Statistics (ONS) today. The name of the Muslim prophet beat
Oliver as the most popular boys name chosen by parents in Britain in 2013.
As a result of the way the statistics are put together, the name does not
appear to have won, as the ONS classifies each of the different spellings as
a different entry on the... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 15 Brandon Rottinghaus and Justin S. Vaughn | February 13, 2015 11:30am
Measuring Obama against the great presidents
As Presidents Day approaches, so too does our annual reflection about our
greatest presidents and how our current chief executive stacks up against
them. Although much of this commentary is of the arm-chair analyst variety,
a recent cottage industry of systematic investigations has emerged. Famed
Harvard historian Arthur Schlesinger Sr. deserves most of the credit for the
advance of ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 16 Chart: The most liberal and conservative jobs in America
By Ana Swanson June 3
You can probably guess that environmentalists and yoga instructors are more
likely to be Democrats -- and oil workers to be Republicans. But what about
flight attendants, talk show hosts, and neurosurgeons?
Verdant Labs, which makes a baby names app, recently published an extensive
chart on the average political affiliations of various professions. To
create the graphic, the company aggregated data from the Federal El... 阅读全帖 |
|
V**3
发帖数: 12756 | 17 有关legacy的wiki解释特地指出，大约75%的美国人反对这个制度
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legacy_preferences
Criticism[edit]
Because private universities in U.S. rely heavily on donations from alumni,
critics argue that legacy preferences are a way to indirectly sell
university placement. Opponents accuse these programs of perpetuating an
oligarchy and plutocracy as they lower the weight of academic merit in the
admissions process in exchange for a financial one. Another criticism is
that the wealthy are given an insur... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 18 http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/12/death-watch-
Death Watch Illinois: Despite Massive Stock Market Rally, Illinois Pension
Liabilities Go Up, and Up, and Up
Illinois Pension Problems Mount
Illinois' unfunded liabilities have risen ten out of the last eleven years.
The only exception was 2011. This was despite massive rallies in financial
markets every year since 2009.
One out of every five tax dollars goes to pensions, but that's nowhere close
to enough to stem the tide.
Illinois... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 19 All-Out ‘Equality’ in the Military Is an Ideological Fallacy
By Hannah Wegman | February 10, 2016 | 2:40 PM EST
The GOP candidates were prepared for anything the moderators might throw at
them at last week’s debate in New Hampshire. From immigration to what
toppings Megyn Kelly likes on her pizza, they were ready. But when asked
about whether they agree with instituting a female-integrated draft, they
started to squirm. The question arises since, in 2015, the Defense
Department officially extend... 阅读全帖 |
|
d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 20 http://nypost.com/2016/05/08/obamas-last-act-is-to-force-suburb
Obama’s last act is to force suburbs to be less white and less wealthy
President Barack Obama and Housing Secretary Julian Castro Photo: AP;
Gregory P. Mango
Hillary’s rumored running mate, Housing Secretary Julian Castro, is cooking
up a scheme to reallocate funding for Section 8 housing to punish suburbs
for being too white and too wealthy.
The scheme involves super-sizing vouchers to help urban poor afford higher
rents in pricey ... 阅读全帖 |
|
g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 21 It’s all part of a grand scheme to forcibly desegregate inner cities and
integrate the outer suburbs.
Anticipating NIMBY resistance, Castro last month threatened to sue suburban
landlords for discrimination if they refuse even Section 8 tenants with
criminal records. And last year, he implemented a powerful new regulation —
“Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing” — that pressures all suburban
counties taking federal grant money to change local zoning laws to build
more low-income housing (landlo... 阅读全帖 |
|
g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 22 Obama provides some information on his Islamic background in his two books,
Dreams and The Audacity of Hope (2006). In 2007, when Hillary Clinton was
still the favored Democratic candidate for president, a number of reporters
dug up information about Obama's time in Indonesia. Obama's statements as
president have provided important insights into his mentality. The major
biographies of Obama devote little attention to this topic, both the
friendly ones (such as those by David Maraniss, David Mend... 阅读全帖 |
|
a****l
发帖数: 8211 | 23 Kind of too long... So just save here for future reference.
====================
There are three key findings to emerge from yesterday's dump of leaked DNC
emails released by Wikileaks:
There had been a plot designed to smear Bernie Sanders and to hand the
Democratic nomination to Hillary on a silver platter
There has been repeated collusion between the DNC and the media
There has been questionable fundraising for both Hillary Clinton and the DNC
First, a quick recap for those who missed the ori... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 25 Clinton's lead over Trump narrows to less than three points: Reuters/Ipsos
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival
Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a
Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points
on Monday.
About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent,
according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll
had a credibility interval of plus or ... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*****o
发帖数: 1121 | 26 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-debate-prep_us_57f6ea0ee4b0e655eab346d4
Marina Fang
Associate Politics Editor, The Huffington Post
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Thursday held a rare town
hall event in New Hampshire that looked a lot like a trial run for Sunday’s
second presidential debate with Democrat Hillary Clinton.
But the softball questions selected from a Trump-friendly crowd offered
little practice for a nominee who desperately needs to overcome his wid... 阅读全帖 |
|
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 27 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
|
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 28 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
|
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 29 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
|
m*******2
发帖数: 503 | 30 关于这个BUSINESS INDISER
一个德国网站创建于2009， 2011年有总共50个雇员。
腚眼护士引经据典真能催牛逼
Business Insider is a German owned American business, celebrity, and
technology news website launched in February 2009 。。。, it is the
overarching brand that includes Silicon Alley Insider (launched May 16, 2007
) and Clusterstock (launched March 20, 2008).[2] The site provides and
analyzes business news, and aggregates top news stories from around the web.
In 2011, the online newsroom employed a staff of 50, and the site reported
a... 阅读全帖 |
|
d***p
发帖数: 937 | 31 终于知道为什么创粉老是传播假新闻了。创粉喜欢听创普的好话。 喜欢听攻击希拉里
的新闻，不管真假。于是欧洲前那斯拉夫的Macedonia一个镇的年轻人创建了一百多个
支持创普的政治网站。这些网站Link到Facebook。为了从Facebook吸引Followers，这
些网站专门制作有利于trump的假新闻，吸引创粉制造流量来赚钱。
https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/how-macedonia-became-a-global-hub-
for-pro-trump-misinfo?utm_term=.lmRqPXXNb#.msoL6zzD2
How Macedonia Became A Global Hub For Pro-Trump Misinformation
BuzzFeed News identified more than 100 pro-Trump websites being run from a
single town in the former Yugoslav Republic.
posted on Nov. 3, 201... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
|
|
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 35 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f
I get why Silver wants to hedge. It’s not easy to sit here and tell you
that Clinton has a 98 percent chance of winning. Everything inside us
screams out that life is too full of uncertainty, that being so sure is just
a fantasy. But that’s what the numbers say. What is the point of all the
data entry, all the math, all the modeling, if when the moment of truth
comes we throw our hands up and say, hey, ... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
|
q***0
发帖数: 225 | 38 我以前说过几次了，Nate Silver 出名后有点滑头，担心出错砸了招牌，主观的调整数
据 |
|
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 39 11-06
538: 291 vs. 246
RCP: 297 vs. 241
electoral-vote: 317 vs. 215
Princeton Election Consortium: 314 vs. 224
huffington pollster: 335 vs. 203 |
|
|
|
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 42 11-07
538: 295 vs. 242
RCP: 301 vs. 237
electoral-vote: 317 vs. 221
Princeton Election Consortium: 311 vs. 227
huffington pollster: 325 vs. 213 |
|
s***5
发帖数: 453 | 43 11-08
538: 302 vs. 235
RCP: 272 vs. 266
electoral-vote: 288 vs. 215
Princeton Election Consortium: 307 vs. 231
huffington pollster: 323 vs. 215 |
|
p******e
发帖数: 897 | 44 “This is the news of the millennium!” said the story on WorldPoliticus.com
. Citing unnamed FBI sources, it claimed Hillary Clinton will be indicted in
2017 for crimes related to her email scandal.
“Your Prayers Have Been Answered,” declared the headline.
For Trump supporters, that certainly seemed to be the case. They helped the
baseless story generate over 140,000 shares, reactions, and comments on
Facebook.
Meanwhile, roughly 6,000 miles away in a small town in the former Yugoslav
Republic of... 阅读全帖 |
|
f***e
发帖数: 5443 | 45 作者：Luxenius
“Trump 不被允许当选总统”，这是一种修辞。
对于这句话，重点不在于 “不允许”，而在于 “谁” 不允许，以及为什么会不允许
，通过何种手段不允许。阿桑奇想说的是，美国的政治高层，也就是所概括的
establishment，以及背后的银行、财团、跨国企业、媒体等等，早已组成了一个庞大
的利益圈层，加上外国政府的强力影响（主要讨论了卡塔尔、沙特、摩洛哥等金主），
实际上都在协力将希拉里推上总统宝座，并不惜一切阻止其他可能性发生。
这个听起来简直就是经典的阴谋论叙事，事实上如果你仔细看了目前他公布的信息，尤
其是追溯了原始邮件，会理解他所言非虚。几万封邮件鲜活地呈现表面光鲜的民主政治
的权力真相，各大媒体的喉舌本质，还有精英政客罪恶龌鹾的私生活。
我们生在一个相对和平、温和的时代，会产生公平与正义是一种内在设定的错觉，好像
只要看似完善的法律和制度摆在那里，这个社会就不再是由人来运作了一样。很多人内
心不能接受民主灯塔这个设定的崩坏，觉得一定要看到 “smoking gun” ，否则你们
就是在传阴谋论。其实，几万封邮件，往来的台词都摆在那里，没有比这个更生动的... 阅读全帖 |
|
b***n
发帖数: 13455 | 46 Florida Data, Ballots, and Ground Reports: Latino Vote Supports Patrone’
Impact…
Posted on November 7, 2016 by sundance
In any analysis of Florida voting the Latino cultural impact is most often
mis-identified by the media, 2016 is no exception. While the MSM is
correctly identifying an up-swing in Latino Florida early voting, the MSM is
also mistakenly inferring this to be a pro-Clinton narrative.
trump-sarasota-2
Those who live and work within Florida will quickly note there is a wide
cult... 阅读全帖 |
|
r*********t
发帖数: 4911 | 47 要表彰你查数据的行为。这是讨论的基础。
我回去也查了资料，我俩有一个共同的错误，那就是对殖民地时期的dgp盲从。有本书
叫做：Slavery and American Economic Development，这里面提到per capita GDP is
to some degree unhistorical in that it rrepresents the modern egalitarian
perspective. 书中后面解释了为什么dpg不适合来解释美国建国初国家经济。一个是奴
隶没有投票权，可是却要计算在dpg per capita里面。二个是gdp是当代的流动性概念
（你说你有一块钱产值，那必须我这边也认你是一块钱产值，也就是你的商品在我这里
也值一块钱），而建国时的国家经济很多是没什么流动性的（区域的价格都不同，实际
上没法用gdp来计算）。书中提到，财富(wealth)，才是计算国家经济的更好方式。于
是呢，我就去查了美国当时的国民财富，我查到了亮点
第一，美国殖民地时期国民收入高于英国。In 1774 the American colonies had
aver... 阅读全帖 |
|
M******d
发帖数: 486 | 48 左派很多眼高手低，根本不了解右派的信仰中 work ethic 是重要的一条。我敢说the
right work much, much harder than the left on an aggregate level。 |
|
i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 49 Ivanka Trump clothing line reports record sales
Ivanka Trump’s eponymous women’s fashion line is reporting record sales
figures despite calls for a boycott and controversies surrounding President
Trump.
“Since the beginning of February, they were some of the best performing
weeks in the history of the brand,” Abigail Klem, the president of the
Ivanka Trump fashion brand, tells Refinery29 in an interview published
Tuesday. “For several different retailers Ivanka Trump was a top performer
online, ... 阅读全帖 |
|
k*******d
发帖数: 707 | 50 In US, it's kidnapping, aggregate assault, battery and sexual assault. It's
self defense undoubted. |
|
