s*****2
发帖数: 1035 | 1 谢谢，不过不是很明白。 你是说commodity stock的价格比commodity price长得早么？
or, |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 2 No QE3 Right - So Why Did The USD Just Hit A New Cyclical Low? Citi Explains
Why
Submitted by Tyler Durden
If you are confused why at one point every word the Chairman said was the
equivalent of one pip lower for the DXY and 10 cents higher for gold, wonder
no more. Here is Citi's Steven Englander asking, and explaining why the USD
just hit a new cyclical low.
From Citi's Steven Englander
Asset markets pretty much liked the FOMC statement and really liked the
press conference, but that's not the... 阅读全帖 |
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h*****8
发帖数: 4754 | 3 Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s largest maker of construction equipment
, posted first-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates and raised
its full-year earnings forecast as sales surged in developing countries.
Net income rose more than fivefold to $1.23 billion, or $1.84 a share, from
$233 million, or 36 cents, a year earlier, the Peoria, Illinois-based
company said in a statement today. The average estimate of 21 analysts in a
Bloomberg survey was $1.31 a share. Sales rose to 57 per... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********s
发帖数: 2136 | 4 SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Spot silver suffered one of its most severe drops on
record early Monday, as bulls who have driven the gray metal up to 31-year
records failed to carry it above $48 a troy ounce and were routed in a
headlong collapse.
The metal fell 12% in just 11 minutes when the fall was at its most severe.
Spot silver saw its informal 2200 GMT open at $47.863/oz before rising to a
peak of $48.150/oz around 2205 GMT, then sold off sharply after 2225 GMT to
a base of $42.210 before stabilizi... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****e
发帖数: 1717 | 5 他们是直接生产commodities或者消费commodities当原材料的。
these are big boys. |
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t******y
发帖数: 6206 | 6 黑老大高盛又在香港发话了，内容见下文。
觉得太长的，教授给个自己读的摘要：
1，我黑老大转述以下白老大的话，白老大他已经怒了。五月九号十号的调查显示，你
们这些投资者一帮猴精都撤回资金准备逃了，sell in May了，不带这么玩的。白老大
说了，我要pump全世界经济形势，看好欧洲，澳洲，加拿大那里也不错。你们资金都给
我回来，该去哪去哪，不知道去哪就去中国。
2，中国股事下半年很可能要彪，通货膨胀目前还不是问题，我们要继续吹大中国，以
及金砖四国。听清楚了，我黑老大说了，中国股市是会发狂的彪的。
3，世界经济复苏，要源于中国。为了让中国发狂的彪，我黑老大准备直接在中国设办
事处，用人民币来炒。你们有数的也都来一起炒，我都这么做了，你们还不放心么？
高盛开始看牛中国股市和看低通货膨胀威胁，暗示黑老大要开始布局了。
p.s.
教授这一阵子忙得像陀螺，乱七八糟却都挺重要的事情有一大堆。实在是无法分出更多
的精力来在股版和大家一起仔细分析大盘和股票，所以很多都是零碎之言，也缺乏体系
和论证过程。我还是暂时淡出一个月，七月份再回来，届时会带来教授的详细TA分析以
及对主席操作的分析和理解，再... 阅读全帖 |
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H******e
发帖数: 4682 | 7 Thanks for your sharing. I can buy future to buy/sell commodities, right?
is there any specific commodity do you recommend? Where can I go to do
transaction?
be |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 8 I am very bullish in commodities, especially gold, silver and agriculture.
However, I think there should be even larger potential to make huge amount
of money in water.
1. North China always doesn't have enough water for industry and agriculture
, in the past two decades, the underground water has been used too much. It'
s going to be harder and harder to pump up fresh water from underground.
2. Although there is a project to move water from south to north, the cost
is very high. The economy of ... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******9
发帖数: 6411 | 9 thanks. I admire Jim Rogers ...
is it this? is Jim Rogers active guiding the fund?
AB Svensk Ekportkredit (Swedish (NYSEArca: RJI )
The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the Rogers International
Commodity Index a€“ Total Return index. The index represents the
value of a basket of 35 commodity futures contracts. |
|
c*******9
发帖数: 6411 | 10 also find this:
AB Svensk Ekportkredit (Swedish (NYSEArca: RJN )
The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the Rogers International
Commodity Index aEnergy Total Return index. The index
represents the value of a basket of 6 energy commodity futures contracts.
which one is better? |
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S*********g
发帖数: 5298 | 11 各个commodity有各自的schedule，而且commodity deferred month的活跃程度比股指
期货的deferred month强太多了。 |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 12 太累了，风险大。commodities会是牛市，还不如在QE3出来之前long commodities。最
近农产品在调整，不久就准备扫货了。 |
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v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 13 今天nasdaq和Dow的差距太大不正常。
美国从阿富汗撤军 release 战略石油储备，明摆着政府要打压energy/commodities。
今天零售（discretionary） Tech transportation暴涨，energy commodity跌，很明
显钱在板块轮动。
令人注意的是前一阵的避风港 staples utilities也大跌，而tlt涨幅不大，加上大盘
双底的形态构成，大资金应该开始进入offensive sectors。
重点关注： Tech （mobile cloud game semi NFLX），零售（lulu fosl anf ltd jcp
hott zumz ulta tpx sbh vsi）,餐馆，飞机，中概 |
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 14 今天nasdaq和Dow的差距太大不正常。
美国从阿富汗撤军 release 战略石油储备，明摆着政府要打压energy/commodities。
今天零售（discretionary） Tech transportation暴涨，energy commodity跌，很明
显钱在板块轮动。
令人注意的是前一阵的避风港 staples utilities也大跌，而tlt涨幅不大，加上大盘
双底的形态构成，大资金应该开始进入offensive sectors。
重点关注： Tech （mobile cloud game semi NFLX），零售（lulu fosl anf ltd jcp
hott zumz ulta tpx sbh vsi）,餐馆，飞机，中概 |
|
B****o
发帖数: 1393 | 15 us dollar up, commodity down. The stock market has a high weight of stocks
rely on the price of commodities. So money buying US bond triggers a stock
market dump? |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 16 具体我就不说了，大家自己google吧，英文是sea turtle trading,搜索中文也行
附件是我老的山寨模拟结果，我稍微更改了下止损条件，基本一样，就是简化了些。
大概模拟条件
1. 从2000年1.1开始的，spy/qqq有10年数据。其他大部分etf都是2005年之后才有的，
反正是模拟是最大期间了
2. 每次买100股，交易费1刀(IB标准)。
模拟结果
1. annual return(short+long total)大部分商品etf都有10~20%。
2. 海龟系统只适用于commodity的etf, 例外是gld,打平.
交易特点
赢的次数比输的少，但赚一次就是大的
交易次数比较少
结论
还是不错的，不过本版估计没人耐的住性子。就像海龟发明人说的，把这个方法贴报纸
上，也很少人会执行
几个问题啊，大牛回答下
这个是模拟etf的结果，要是交易真正的commodity future或者option会有什么改变吗
？回报会大幅提高？因为原始的海龟交易测试是交易的future.... |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 17 多谢教授指点啊。我的确对美股欧股看熊。我是觉得不管QE怎么推出，顶多就是维持股
市不崩溃，想要突破2007年的高点是不太可能的事情。美国实行宽松利率已经不是这几
年的事情了，而是从90年代初就开始的，股市最牛的时间就是90年代，纳斯达克破盘以
前，最近这十年宽松政策明显已经不管用了。
美股正在出于一个大熊市的开端。要知道美国股市知道55年才打到29年的高度，在60-
80年代间也基本是一潭死水。曾经在亚洲金融危机前，亚洲股市的市值是大于美国股市
的。
曾经做过比喻，各国央行是水龙头，QE就是打开自来水。短期内钱肯定会流入美股，但
是很快的就会流向别的地方，比如commodities和其他新兴市场，甚至日本股市。所以
我觉得如果最近股市重回1070以下，然后出来QE，应该把钱投向commodities尤其是农
业，以及正在depressed的新兴市场，比如越南，或者正在depressed的发达国家，比如
日本，甚至港股都比较好。
了。 |
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m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 18 I guess I will stop this thread, as it's not as thought-provoking as I
thought.
But I decided to share my books on tradings I collected, most of them
are pdf (I bought some of them, stole most of them from internet, I owe
these authors a lot but I guess it's financially harmless as most ppl
here won't buy their books anyway :D
I will include no indicators files, no academic papers(as most ppl
here enjoy empirical stuff). Considering sharing some script, template,
real code.
Someone offers a safe... 阅读全帖 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 19 i dont trust any of those inistitutional report.
just be reasonable, 1150-1550, +35%
summer safe haven parking lot, 1500-1850, +23%,
considering x'mas hiring season is coming yet both equity and commodity
market are deeply discounted, how high can gold go? another 35% on top of
1850?? well, that will justify 2500, but don't forget when this summer mess'
s over, that 23%(or possibly more) will be taken out and added back to
equity and commodities
year
price
seems |
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t**u
发帖数: 1572 | 20 Today's Market Looks A Lot Like August 1998
By, DARYL MONTGOMERY
Aug 18, 2011
In the later part of July 1998, the stock market began to suddenly fall
apart, just as it did in 2011. The initial drop stabilized into mid-August
and then accelerated. One reason for the 1998 selloff was well-know, but the
one that caused the final low was only revealed later on. Is there
something important that investors don't know yet in August 2011?
Something is seriously bothering the stock market and the news ... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 21 Your argument does not invalidate the function of gold as a exchange media.
Your argument only says that when one commodity is in short supply but with
large demand the price of this commodity can be very high(or even infinite) |
|
j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 22 能想到的是
1 法币避险产品， 如commodity，但commodity 反应是超前的
2 垄断性产品或刚性需求产品，或者有完全订价权的公司，比如烟草
但utility公司受政府制约，反应要很滞后？
3 价格绝对变化不大的产品，比如McDonald的Ice coffee,从一块到一块五，对销售量
不会有明显减少
4 负债多的公司(如果能在高通胀中生存下来)
还有什么吗？ |
|
u****d
发帖数: 23938 | 23 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
HappyAve (幸福大街) 于 (Thu May 26 09:51:29 2011, 美东) 提到:
为了引玉, 抛砖。
我的想法:
1. Health Care sector 的 mutual fund.
理由:
(1). vanguard, fidelity, Health Care sector 的 mutual fund, averagely, 1
year yield to be around 24% before tax, 2% per month, I will be very happy
with this.
(2). 目前, 难判断大盘趋势, health care sector 的 mutual fund 基本上还是稳步
上升的。 我公司在health care industry，总是在hiring，即使是在经济非常低迷的
2008年和2009年。
comment: 我没研究过政策啥的, 风险自负。 :)
2. 其他国家的处于明显上升时期的大盘index, 正在看 fide... 阅读全帖 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 24 Just keep buying fundamentally good and undervalued stocks on dips. Short
overpriced gold/silver, avoid commodities, and find value stocks in
financials/services/consumers/......
We are in a healthy bull-market, not the unhealthy commodity bull-market
since 2 years ago. We just had a sector rotation that scared away many non-
believers.
Also buy China/emerging markets, stay in US market, and avoid other
developped markets. |
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 25 Just keep buying fundamentally good and undervalued stocks on dips. Short
overpriced gold/silver, avoid commodities, and find value stocks in
financials/services/consumers/......
We are in a healthy bull-market, not the unhealthy commodity bull-market
since 2 years ago. We just had a sector rotation that scared away many non-
believers.
Also buy China/emerging markets, stay in US market, and avoid other
developped markets. |
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 26 Wrong!
Strong $ is an indication of US economy recovery, and commodity will retreat
(good for consumers).
The commodity bull-market since 2009, especially gold/silver, is an
indication of weak recovery. True bull market comes when gold crashes but $
is stronger.
QE3 is what bear wants. The most bullish case is recovery without QE3. |
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o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 27 发信人: oyxy (GloomBoomDoom), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 教授我都不知道说什么好了。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 14 14:28:24 2011, 美东)
多谢教授指点啊。我的确对美股欧股看熊。我是觉得不管QE怎么推出，顶多就是维持
股市不崩溃，想要突破2007年的高点是不太可能的事情。美国实行宽松利率已经不是这
几年的事情了，而是从90年代初就开始的，股市最牛的时间就是90年代，纳斯达克破盘
以前，最近这十年宽松政策明显已经不管用了。
美股正在出于一个大熊市的开端。要知道美国股市知道55年才打到29年的高度，在60-
80年代间也基本是一潭死水。曾经在亚洲金融危机前，亚洲股市的市值是大于美国股市
的。
曾经做过比喻，各国央行是水龙头，QE就是打开自来水。短期内钱肯定会流入美股，
但是很快的就会流向别的地方，比如commodities和其他新兴市场，甚至日本股市。所
以我觉得如果最近股市重回1070以下，然后出来QE，应该把钱投向commodities尤其是
农业，以及正在depressed的新兴市场，比如越南，或者正在depr... 阅读全帖 |
|
t******y
发帖数: 6206 | 28 想要突破2007年的高点是不太可能的事情。美国实行宽松利率已经不是这
几年的事情了，而是从90年代初就开始的，股市最牛的时间就是90年代，纳斯达克破盘
以前，最近这十年宽松政策明显已经不管用了。
Agreed. It won't last long. But a year is good enough for President Obama.
曾经做过比喻，各国央行是水龙头，QE就是打开自来水。短期内钱肯定会流入美股，
但是很快的就会流向别的地方，比如commodities和其他新兴市场，甚至日本股市。所
以我觉得如果最近股市重回1070以下，然后出来QE，应该把钱投向commodities尤其是
农业，以及正在depressed的新兴市场，比如越南，或者正在depressed的发达国家，比
如日本，甚至港股都比较好。
A very good analogy. :) |
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 29 今天的commodities包括金银，农业都大跌，美元也跌，债券也跌，只有美股大涨，告
诉我们很多的信息。短期来看，市场对抄底美股信心极其浓厚，把一部分钱从金银农这
些hard assets转移出来了。但是问题是这样的涨幅能持续多久。想一想金银农还能往
下跌多少来支持美股？美元最近才突破了76的阻力，目前正回调到76上方，这到底是在
consolidate还是昙花一现的反弹而已？
回头说说农业，农业的平均指数在最近10年是所有commodities里头上涨最少的，考虑
通膨的因素，上涨幅度小于50%。目前的food inventory是几十年来最低水平，人口比
十年前多了不少，气候又在变化。美国农民的平均年龄是58岁。很难想象food price有
可能会崩溃。所以，只要它回调，就买，捂个10年当银行存折，长线来看，没有比这个
更sure的了。 |
|
e**s
发帖数: 4638 | 30 美股跌，经济不好，用不着那么多commodities（包括金银农），commodities 持续下
跌中 ～～～～～～～～lol |
|
s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 31 Why do you hold agriculture commodity ? If Liquidity is shrinking, those
commodities will drop fast.
more |
|
g***t
发帖数: 1279 | 32 你说分化了，那么那些板块的commodity比较安全或者常用看回报高？谢谢
commodities |
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 33 Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August
indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to
continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment
rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a
modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor
vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential
structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depre... 阅读全帖 |
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s********0
发帖数: 3644 | 34 我觉得要看股市和commodity，如果股市继续猪/跌，那资金还会流到贵金属，
如果commodity/股市/房市近期有起色，那么贵金属就是再跌20%-30%是完全有可能的， |
|
B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 35 Isn't it very effective in hitting gold/silver and commodities? I expect it
helps financials and consumers, good for economy.
The previou 2 years of commodities bull market is not healthy as the result
of QE1&2. OT is correcting it somehow. |
|
c*********p
发帖数: 3217 | 36 1. commodities 由于中国的发展, 还要涨， 说这波涨是由于需求而不是通货膨胀． 拿了六是
年代到八十年代的由于韩国发展对 commodities 需求的图做对比. 那次持续时间很长,但是我发
现对比图中,这次的斜率明显比上次的大
2. 再过两周股票市场市场不涨起来就衰退.
3. 别人恐惧时候我贪婪. 所以可以买点有价值的东西. ( 但是讲座哪个人有一年, 47%
, 但是我就觉得他其他大部分年就做不好了. ).and his fund is only 35Million.
4. GOLD 还是要看好. 不过那个讲座的人,他看来GOLD 都三十年了. 头二十年就是不涨
..所以这个.CREDIT 有点..
5. 中国买加拿大矿公司还会继续的.
6. gold companies,小公司有很多机会被中, 或, 大公司收购. 因为, 大公司自己没什
么开采点了.,发展很慢.
7.矿公司四个阶段, 勘探, 生产, 这两个会涨, 忘记做笔记了以上全部是靠记忆写的.
8. broker might not allow to short leveraged inverse ETF. ... 阅读全帖 |
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y*******o
发帖数: 6632 | 37 a positive capital flow will boost economy
the treasury price is exceptional high, the profitability is quite limited.
Many bond trader will take profit and sell bonds.
The money will leave bond market and flowing into stock market.
Commodity I am not sure. I will not buy commodity since I think the world
economy will slow for sure.
The big banks has large Europe exposure, therefore, high risk.
The solar part has European exposure, therefore some risk.
But if you are just a day to week trader, n... 阅读全帖 |
|
s********0
发帖数: 3644 | 38 说说你的看法吧。
新兴市场和commodities有关系嘛？
如果有的话，也会使commodities涨，新兴市场跌吧（通胀压力） |
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 39 首先，还是老三篇一样的先谈谈美元。一个星期以来，美元都在77-78之间小幅震动，
接下来是向上还是向下？
向上的动力是什么？
1. 欧元去问题持续发酵
2. commodities继续下跌
3. 投机者继续看好美元
4. 避险资金看好美元
向下的动力？
1. 欧元区问题搞定
2. QE出来
3. 金银commodities受需求拉动重新上涨
我个人还是信他向上，不管你信不信，反正我是信了。
其次，关于最后一个小时的拉盘。如果从量来看，其实不算爆量，今天的总成交额就是
最近的平均水平。我个人觉得多半是以巴肥为代表的捂帮抄底造成的。可是别忘了，以
高盛和索罗斯为代表的炒家希望它向下还是向上？向下他们能赚更多的钱，很明显。
最后，明天和下个星期怎么办，跌的概率大。这周本该涨，可是涨不上去，跌下去只需
最后一根羽毛的重量。炒家们可能马上会有大动作。 |
|
o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 40 but speculators will rush to commodities, that's enough. plus in the long
term, no asset class is in shortage as commodities.
for |
|
B*******n
发帖数: 20645 | 41 Corn Price Plunges To Lowest Since July 1, Hits Revised Daily Limit As
Sellers Outnumber Buyers By 2000 To 1
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2011 - 12:01
Back in April, when we first discussed the hike in daily corn trading limits
from $0.30 to $0.40, we had some cynical observations, namely that "
inviting not only more vol (read bottom line for the business) but more
margin, the CME is exposing speculators to far greater impacts from margin
hikes (and drops). Which of course means a far gre... 阅读全帖 |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 43 看上去， 外患重新大于内忧。
financial sector又开始领跌， commodities还没有跟上， 看看本周alcoa的财报是不
是能有所预示。
如果financial & commodities double confirm.
那可以确定后市index的一个follow up大跌。 补齐financial的跌幅。 |
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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 44 Topics:CommoditiesStocks
The Canadian Press, On Wednesday October 19, 2011, 9:04 pm
By The Canadian Press
CALGARY - Perpetual Energy Inc. (TSX:PMT) announced Wednesday that it is
suspending future dividend payments until further notice, citing continued
weakness in natural gas prices.
In a news release, the Calgary-based concern said continued payment of the
dividend — currently 1.5 cents per month producing an annual yield of 7.725
per cent — was not sustainable in the current price environment... 阅读全帖 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 45 Commodities, especially gold/silver, drop. We had a sector rotation, and the
market has corrected itself from the UNHEALTHY commodities bull market in
the past 2 years.
BUY! |
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l******g
发帖数: 81 | 46 Old And No News Is Good News Apparently?
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/26/2011 17:16 -0400
Copper
Futures market
recovery
While S&P futures managed to make higher highs in the last hour, the EUR did
not as only TSYs managed to follow stocks to those extreme levels. It was
an odd day, as we have noted many times today, as the total lack of news
combined with rallies on the back of old news seemed enough to juice stocks
higher. It does make one think a little a... 阅读全帖 |
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K********g
发帖数: 9389 | 47 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
kelvin2088 (哈罗哈精神) 于 (Thu Nov 10 14:35:23 2011, 美东) 提到:
我想应该没有在这两个品种上纠结的熊熊吧？
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dongbeiren2 (东北人) 于 (Thu Nov 10 14:36:46 2011, 美东) 提到:
中国hard landing的话, 油价会暴跌
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kelvin2088 (哈罗哈精神) 于 (Thu Nov 10 14:38:22 2011, 美东) 提到:
that's not what the market is telling me now.
once that happen, i'd already be shorting...
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oyxy (金钱流) 于 (Thu... 阅读全帖 |
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R******n
发帖数: 687 | 48 2011几乎全错。千万别把这些预测当真。
Byron Wien Announces The Ten Surprises for 2011
New York, January 3rd, 2011 – Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone
Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This
is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions of a number of economic,
financial market and political Surprises for the coming year. Byron defines
a “Surprise” as an event which the average investor would only assign a
one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron belie... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 1722 | 49 commodity可能会有一个小高潮。
disclaim, i have no positions in any of the commodities. |
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R****r
发帖数: 609 | 50 est. vs act.
$1.82 $1.81
Revenue increased 23.7% to $596.7 million
Comparable restaurant sales increased 11.1%
Restaurant level operating margin was 26.1%, an increase of 20 basis
points
Food costs were 32.2% of sales, an increase of 120 basis points driven
by higher commodity costs
Net income was $57.5 million, an increase of 23.7%
Diluted earnings per share was $1.81, an increase of 23.1%
Highlights for the twelve months ended December 31, 2011 as compa... 阅读全帖 |
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