l*******c
发帖数: 523 | 1 阿三太猛了，FY13 EB名额已用完了。
NewsFlash! FY13 Employment-Based Visa Number Limits Reached
September 27, 2013
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has confirmed earlier rumors that the
employment-based (EB) visa numbers available for fiscal year 2013 (FY13)
been exhausted. This is not uncommon, as FY13 ends on September 30. Thus,
DOS seeks to allocate visa numbers in a manner that will allow for full
utilization by that date.
The USCIS continues to accept EB I-485 applications based upon the current
month’s... 阅读全帖 |
|
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c*******6
发帖数: 686 | 3 如果对照 PERM 的处理进度
FY13年 Analyst Review 只处理了 7个月的申请 Audit 处理了5个月的申请
而 FY11 FY12 都处理了12个月左右的申请。
这样看来 7个月的PDs Vs 12个月的PDs 只减少了30%
恰恰说明 申请不是少了 而是多了 使得劳动局的处理速度变慢 Audit的比率增加
客观反应 美国经济缓慢向好的走向。 |
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s********n
发帖数: 455 | 4 http://www.murthy.com/2012/07/06/cutoff-date-expectations-and-e
Cutoff Date Expectations and Explanations: EB2 Retrogression
July 6, 2012
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) has provided detailed predictions and
explanations regarding the movement of priority dates in fiscal year 2013 (
FY13), which occurs from October 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013. The
employment-based, second preference (EB2) category for India and China faces
protracted retrogression. While the EB2 category will no longer... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****d
发帖数: 7963 | 5 【 以下文字转载自 EB23 讨论区 】
发信人: pulus (Pulus), 信区: EB23
标 题: 数据说话：3012之后清空08/09/10 EB2需多久
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 23 22:11:22 2011, 美东)
1. 08/09/10年PERM data: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
2. NIW估计：保守估计，按PERM的1/10算
3. 中印每个PERM产生485的系数：引用SinoGator，中国是1.5，烙印是3.5。这里保守
估计，中国按1.5，烙印按3。
4. 3012的最快通过时间：考虑到Senate 12月不上班，1月、2月基本不上班，从明年2
月末开始讨论，2-3个月通过，加上总统签署，保守估计最快6月份生效。此时FY2012只
剩下3个月，名额还剩1/4，也就是10000个。
5. 暂时不算海量EB3I在这几年中升级的数量，因为不好估计。但数量肯定会很大。
那么：
2008:
China - 1491PERM + 150NIW = 1641 x 1.5 = 2... 阅读全帖 |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 6 1. 08/09/10年PERM data: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
2. NIW估计：保守估计，按PERM的1/10算
3. 中印每个PERM产生485的系数：引用SinoGator，中国是1.5，烙印是3.5。这里保守
估计，中国按1.5，烙印按3。
4. 3012的最快通过时间：考虑到Senate 12月不上班，1月、2月基本不上班，从明年2
月末开始讨论，2-3个月通过，加上总统签署，保守估计最快6月份生效。此时FY2012只
剩下3个月，名额还剩1/4，也就是10000个。
5. 暂时不算海量EB3I在这几年中升级的数量，因为不好估计。但数量肯定会很大。
那么：
2008:
China - 1491PERM + 150NIW = 1641 x 1.5 = 2461
India - 7401PERM + 740NIW = 8141 x 3 = 24423
08年Total: 26884. FY12只有10000(FY12最后一季度)+5600(中印在3012生效前各有
2800)，还需11000左右，应该在FY13... 阅读全帖 |
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N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 7 ROW will still have SO, but will mostly eaten by EB-2I.
ROW从7月开始从C退到09年，也就是说7，8，9三个月基本没有ROW被批，这一个季度没
有被批的从这次的Demand Data看大致有4600 （4850-275），将积累到FY13，相当于
FY13要批5个季度的人（原本4个季度加FY12积累下来的1个季度），如果ROW在FY13保持
这个速率（每季度4600），那么FY13 ROW将消耗4600X5=23000名额，EB-2总共40000，
ROW吃剩给中印，23000扣掉中印保留名额各2803，实际ROW过来的SO大约23000-2803X2=
17400左右。
按照这个表
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31798335.html
17400的SO中国只能吃到1100左右，因此明年EB2C总名额大概在（2803+1100）4000左右
(EB-1,4,5如有剩余
则有更多。) |
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b*********k
发帖数: 335 | 8 http://kathyforstaterep.com/issues/education/
IMPACT OF SB16 TO THE 17TH DISTRICT
Here is how the bill would affect schools in District 17 (numbers from ISBE):
Northbrook / Glenview Dist. 30
FY13 Disbursements = $648,051
Disbursements Under SB 16 = $190,759
Loss = $457,292
- Loses 70% of state funding
Glenview School Dist. 34
FY13 Disbursements = $4,374,854
Disbursements Under SB 16 = $776,666
Loss = $3,598,188
- Loses 82% of state funding
Avoca School Dist. 37
FY 13 Disbursements = $396,564
Dis... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********6
发帖数: 544 | 9 Tile瓦店盘后ER会议
4:19PM Tile Shop misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY13 revs
guidance (TTS) 23.90 -0.65 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.08 per share,
excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus
Estimate of $0.10; revenues rose 28.2% year/year to $56.8 mln vs the $57.15
mln consensus. Comparable store sales +14.8%. During the quarter co opened
three stores in new markets and two stores in existing markets.
4:18PM SunPower beats by $0.19, beats on revs; g... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********6
发帖数: 544 | 10 Tile瓦店盘后ER会议
4:19PM Tile Shop misses by $0.02, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY13 revs
guidance (TTS) 23.90 -0.65 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.08 per share,
excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus
Estimate of $0.10; revenues rose 28.2% year/year to $56.8 mln vs the $57.15
mln consensus. Comparable store sales +14.8%. During the quarter co opened
three stores in new markets and two stores in existing markets.
4:18PM SunPower beats by $0.19, beats on revs; g... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 11 Highlight: the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be
available to EB2 India and China in FY13.
Dose it mean that EB2C can get at least 2000 excess visa number. The
assumption is that the number of spillover of EB2C: EB2I is 1:5.
This ratio is even lower than before.
___________________________________________________________________
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from
some excess visa n... 阅读全帖 |
|
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l*******n
发帖数: 8388 | 13 EB2C 在FY13 和14 都吃到了~3600， EB3C 在FY13 大概是3300， 在FY14 是3700 （+
CP 1273 ？？？）。 只能说幸运的吃够了自己的。当然细算FFA，FY13的EB23实际上是
少了我们200~300个名额。
为了准确，还是以2800 + adjusted value from FB吧，也就是3000（EB2）， 2700（
EB3）。还是保守点吧。 |
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N******K
发帖数: 10202 | 14 看点在此
It is important to note that the success rates for targeted and investigator
-initiated RPG awards are primarily the same,
=============================================================
Rock Talk
Helping connect you with the NIH perspective
2014 By the Numbers
Posted on December 31, 2014 by Sally Rockey
Application and award summary data for fiscal year 2014 are now available in
the NIH Data Book. These data are of particular interest for all of us this
year, considering the historic low ... 阅读全帖 |
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c******r
发帖数: 422 | 15 2:58PM Zynga (halted) also reaffirms Q2, FY13 guidance; Q2 bookings in the
lower half of previous guidance (ZNGA) 3.41 +0.01 : Co reaffirms Q2 EPS of (
$0.04)-(0.03) on rev of $225-235 mln; consensus ($0.03), $232.6 mln.
Bookings are projected to be in the lower half of the outlook range provided
in April 24, 2013 first quarter earnings release. While Farmville Franchise
continues to perform well, other games are underperforming.
Zynga also re-affirms FY13 adj. EBITDA margin of 0-10%. |
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j*******0
发帖数: 44 | 16 some useful data for FY07, FY08, FY09, FY10
Perm Data(EB2&3 Approved in the FY)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
China 6846 3328 2094 4000
India 24573 16569 11387 29000
In FY07, I take a look at the EB2 485 inventory:
average monthly Chinese EB2 485 submitted is 700
average monthly India EB2 485 submitted is 1600
I guess the monthly Chinese EB2 demand for FY08 will decrease to 400(from
the perm data trend).
But the monthly India EB2 demand for FY08 will not decrease a... 阅读全帖 |
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n****s
发帖数: 159 | 17 Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from
some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume
of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In
FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers.
The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2
India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 vis... 阅读全帖 |
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p**y
发帖数: 53 | 18 大侠们算算， 中国EB2能分得到多少： 100， 500， 1,000， 3,000？
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from
some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume
of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In
FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers.
The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2
India and China. At this time,... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*******6
发帖数: 686 | 19 EB3都是PERM, 可以从PERM 批准量上分析大概结果
FY06 ROW-32107
FY07 ROW-32434
FY08 ROW-17211
FY09 ROW-10128
FY10 ROW-22376
FY11 ROW-15111
FY12 ROW-12852
FY10大致处理了2009.01-2010.07共18个月的PERM申请/
FY11大致处理了2010.07-2011.06共12个月的PERM申请/
FY12大致处理了2011.07-2012.06共12个月的PERM申请/
FY13大致处理了2012.08-2013.02共7个月的PERM申请/
FY08-12的PERM水平基本一致
1.其中FY10显示稍多 是因为处理时间加快,处理了18个月的申请
2.如果EB2/3 在PERM比例一直保持一致
EB3ROW inventory 应该保持基本一致的水平
如果除掉Audit 的case, FY09-12 实际EB3ROW数量应该更低
对于史前的case，我猜是史前的烙印和它族联姻了 ：）
处理时间 - Analyst Review - Audited
2009.03.... 阅读全帖 |
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N****g
发帖数: 2829 | 20 EB3全世界FY13还少给名额了。EB3全世界FY13应得名额158000 X 28.6% = 45188，实得
43740,少了1400多。不过EB全世界倒是多了3200 （161269 vs 158000).也就是说EB3少
的其实用到了EB2头上。 |
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l*******n
发帖数: 8388 | 21 改正： 不是15个月，是12个月。
移民局网站
http://www.uscis.gov/i-693
关于i-693的有效期说明：
Note: The results of the medical examination are generally valid for only 12
months.
485 SOP上也说的是 12 month
The Form I-693, Medical Examination for Aliens Seeking Adjustment of Status,
must:
。。。
• Have been executed no more than one year prior to the date of filing
the
I-485. (In exceptional cases, where the adjustment application has been
pending over one year, the I-693 may still be considered valid as long as no
Class A or... 阅读全帖 |
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k******o
发帖数: 550 | 22 搭车问个一直不太明白的perm统计问题，看过06/07年的perm统计和fy13 visa统计，
perm提交时不在美国的每年很少（<100)，在美国也绝大多数h1b,l1,非b12类，换言之
合法工作。但visa统计有约一半1400+的eb3通过cp处理，而eb2则很少cp（<100)。
逻辑上不是不可能曾经有美国工作然后在中国cp，但这应属少量，而且不应eb2/3差很
多。 如果考虑大厨类可能使用不真实EVL，可以说的通大量CP，但他们如何能都交perm
时在美国有h1b？感觉我一定是miss了什么，唯一能想到假设是cp实际处理速度慢于aos
很久所以fy13批准的是更早的pd， which没有网上perm数据. |
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t****v
发帖数: 9235 | 23 【 以下文字转载自 Travel 讨论区 】
发信人: DeaDEyE (代代爱), 信区: Travel
标 题: Re: 印度要落地签了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Feb 7 12:10:57 2014, 美东)
10年签证，代表的意思更多的是，对这个国家体制的认可，给了这个人一次签证我基本
对他将来没啥太多的疑问。但这跟拒签率基本没关系。印度拒签率比中国高一倍都不止
啊。
2013年国务院发表的统计全球B签证拒签率
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Immigr
s/RefusalRates/FY13.pdf
菲律宾 24%
印度 18%
中国大陆 8.5%
香港 1.8%
香港早达到标准了，不过考虑到大陆对香港护照的颁发还有影响力，担心免签后会有大
量的大陆官员拿到香港护照，所以至今也还没给香港免签。 |
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j*********d
发帖数: 1137 | 24 你前面的话我没太大意见。单说说你最后一段
你说“我同意你的说法，富人的税率可以涨回2000年水平，可你觉的能解决1.3T的赤字
吗？(全年财政收入才2.5T), not even close. 一旦说ss/2M的削减，就立刻撞墙，
where is 理性 you are talking about? 开源AND节流解决赤字，这个很难吗?”
先说说节流。看这个表吧。来源 http://www.usfederalbudget.us/
Spending Functions for FY13
$ trillion nom
2011 2012 2013
Pensions 0.8 0.8 0.9
Health Care 0.9 0.8 0.9
Education 0.1 0.2 0.1
Defense 0.9 0.9 0.9
Welfare ... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
f*******7
发帖数: 1019 | 26 Sorry to rain on the parade, but if you are an established investigator, the
interim FY13 paylines for several institutes (NIAID, NHLBI) are only 6% -
you are not completely out of woods yet. |
|
f*******7
发帖数: 1019 | 27 现在好像改叫NGA了(Notice of Grant Award).
我们这个是non modular grant 所以cut的多些。 其实start date应该是fy14, 但是这
个institute在fy13 end有些余钱所以就提前fund了。 不然至少要多等半年 |
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a*******a
发帖数: 49 | 28 从这个链接看到
NICHD ($1.28B): FY15: pending [FY13 paylines (FY14 never posted): 9th/13th
percentile for established/new-ESI investigators; 7th percentile for R03s &
R21s;
那R21的new investigator 13 percentile 有没有可能被fund呢？还是说按照7th
percentile cutoff，完全没有希望了呢？
现在还能做些什么提高下被fund的可能性么？
求指点，非常感谢！ |
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p*****2
发帖数: 21240 | 29 The way Microsoft’s review system works, a whole bunch of Microsoft
employees just got their annual performance reviews. The September 15
paystub will reflect their new “numbers”. If they got a merit increase
the paystub will show it. If they got a bonus, it will show up there too.
This post is for those Microsoft employees who are not happy with their
review…
That September 15 date is what motivates managers to finally get busy
delivering the bad news to employees who didn’t fare so well in s... 阅读全帖 |
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n****f
发帖数: 310 | 30 LCA一份可以管同一个岗位的10个人，不管究竟招几个人，大公司的律师一般都是直接
申请10个，为了省事。同时不管是cap里面的人，还是cap外面的renew了nonprofit了，
都是要申请lca的，所以lca的数量和quota没有特别直接的关系
硬要说的话，FY13 Q1，20万个岗位，略高于去年的18万 |
|
T*C
发帖数: 5492 | 31 Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): FQ3 EPS of $0.52 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $869M (+21% Y/Y) misses by $4M. Lowers FY13 EPS estimate to $2.55
-$2.60. Earnings CC scheduled for 5:00 PM EST.
More on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): Says sales growth trajectory
will moderate downward from its "hyper-growth" phase. Single-serve pack
sales up 153% Y/Y to $638M, with a 28% percentage point gain in sales volume
. Gross margin fell to 34.9%, from 36.8% a year ago. For FY12, sees net
sales o... 阅读全帖 |
|
w***h
发帖数: 112 | 32 More on Nvidia revenue break down, two trends are worth attention
1. consumer product revenue is picking up quickly
2. although global PC demand is dying, somehow GPU business is picking up
too. Mainly due to the fact that the constraint on foundary is alleviated.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/6147/nvidia-q2-fy13-earnings-repo |
|
C**********n
发帖数: 76 | 33 ESTIMATES:
* 1Q adj. EPS est. 75c (range 72c-79c)
* 1Q rev. est. $1.16b ($1.13b-$1.19b)
* 1Q N.A. comp sales est. +2.3% (Retail Metrics, Oct. 4) vs 4Q
Y/y comps up 1.7%
WHAT TO WATCH:
* 4Q comp sales of +1.7% was deceleration from avg +9.5% during prior 7
qtrs: Deutsche Bank (hold)
* Softer China, Japan trends not COH-specific; more due to macro concerns:
Stifel (buy)
* FY13 expected to be investment yr: Barclays (overweight)
* Proprietary survey suggests upper-income females a... 阅读全帖 |
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B*********t
发帖数: 44 | 34 东部时间5点才出消息
Q1 FY13 Earnings Release
Apple plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its
first fiscal quarter on Wednesday, January 23, 2013 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00
p.m. ET.
Listen to the Audio Webcast
可在线收听 |
|
J********i
发帖数: 50662 | 35 Hewlett-Packard (HPQ): FQ1 EPS of $0.82 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $28.36B (
-6% Y/Y) beats by $570M. Expects FQ2 EPS of $0.80-$0.82, above $0.77
consensus. Expects FY13 EPS of $3.40-$3.60, above $3.32 consenus. |
|
J********i
发帖数: 50662 | 36 wk，数据真丑陋，不过总算beat了
More on H-P's FQ1: FY13 guidance is unchanged, but the Street might believe
it now. PC sales -8% Y/Y, better than FQ4's -14%. Printing -5% (even with
FQ4) - consumer hardware -13%, commercial -6%. Enterprise hardware -4% (-9%
prior) - high-end servers -24%, x86 servers -3%, storage -13%, networking +4
%. Services -7% (-6% prior), op. margin just 1.3%. Software -2%, license
revenue -16%. R&D -13% Q/Q to just $794M (2.7% of revenue), SG&A up slightly
. $253M worth of buybacks.
... 阅读全帖 |
|
y*d
发帖数: 2226 | 37 Ctrip.com beats by $0.01, beats on revs; reiterates FY13 guidance (CTRP) 59.
19 +1.08 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.40 per share, excluding non-
recurring items, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.
39; revenues rose 35.0% year/year to $252 mln vs the $243.81 mln consensus.
Gross margin was 75% in the third quarter of 2013, compared to 76% in the
same period of 2012 and remained consistent with that in the previous
quarter. |
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b****n
发帖数: 8 | 38 Address:
Email:
Cell phone:
Work phone:
Oct 28, 2013
Department of Homeland Security
USCIS Nebraska Service Center
P.O. Box 87103
Lincoln, NE 68501-7103
I-140 Immigration Visa Petition Under First Preference EB-1
Petitioner/Beneficiary: XX Z., Ph.D.
Category of Petition: Alien of Extraordinary Ability
Classification Sought: 203(b)(1)(A)
Nature of Submission: Original Submission
Dear Immigration Officer,
This letter is respectfully submitted in s... 阅读全帖 |
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b****n
发帖数: 8 | 39 Address:
Email:
Cell phone:
Work phone:
Oct 28, 2013
Department of Homeland Security
USCIS Nebraska Service Center
P.O. Box 87103
Lincoln, NE 68501-7103
I-140 Immigration Visa Petition Under First Preference EB-1
Petitioner/Beneficiary: XX Z., Ph.D.
Category of Petition: Alien of Extraordinary Ability
Classification Sought: 203(b)(1)(A)
Nature of Submission: Original Submission
Dear Immigration Officer,
This letter is respectfully submitted in s... 阅读全帖 |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 40 Only one pre-condition, the SO is bigger enough for Eb2 - 30K or more like
this year.
And, 09 PD number is the lowest in recent yrs. 10 PD definitely could see
current in FY13.
Another possible factor is HR3012 which can speed up the process too. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 41 No way. It could closer to end of FY12: e.g. June or July, but no way he
exceeds the FY12 to FY13. It is crazy.... |
|
N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 42 现在重要的是FY12 SO 有多少. 30K+的话,08年的PD 可以12年夏天如期清完.
然后就是为FY13建立库存;09 的PD 的数量是这几年最低的,所以,会前进很快,年底前就
可能到6月以后.
个人意见. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 43 Agree.
But once after 2012/09, the new inventory building up will move cut-off date
into 09 faster and further. In Jan, 2013, it most likely will approach to
or beyond 09/2009- the end of FY13. |
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N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 44 That is right....now what matters is time. Earlier is better - more numbers
could be taken from ROWers in FY12, and then less waiting or pressure
to FY13. |
|
N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 45 ROWers 已经在吃FY12的名额了；所以FY12的名额不会都拿到,有没有一半都不肯定.没
准还要用FY13 的名额来消化08的PD的demands. |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 46 你这个估计不是保守，是太乐观了：
1. Senate12月1月不上班，最快明年2月末3月初通过，到那时FY2012已经过了一半，正
常算FY2012的3万多名额早已被ROW用去一半。
2. 如果通过，未来2-3年会有大量中印EB3升级，他们排期早，生一个拿一个。这你也
没算。
唯一不确定因素就是SO。这个老中能分到多少很难预料。
现在看除了SO，老中的名额。FY12拿一半：2500，FY13拿5000，FY14中旬（2014年3月
）拿2500。这时正好是1万名额。
按你的数据，08,09,10三年老中demand一共是94000，可以说在没有SO，并且不算EB3升
级的情况下，要到2014年3月才能清空2010年的demand。
至于SO和升级到底有多少，不同人有不同看法。不过上面的分析是基于老中guarantee
的名额，是大前提。至于你说的2012年能清空09年，基本是不现实的。 |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 47 Helsinki的估计不是保守，是太乐观了：
1. Senate12月1月不上班，最快明年2月末3月初通过，到那时FY2012已经过了一半，
正常算FY2012的3万多名额早已被ROW用去一半（老中的5000名额剩下2500）。
2. 如果通过，未来2-3年会有大量中印EB3升级，他们排期早，生一个拿一个。
这点Helsinki也没算。
不确定因素是SO和升级。
现在看除了SO、升级，老中的名额：FY12拿一半：2500，FY13拿5000，
到FY14中旬（2014年3月）拿2500。这时正好是1万名额。
按Helsinki的demand数据，08,09,10三年老中demand一共是9400，
可以说在没有SO，并且不算EB3升级的情况下，
要到2014年3月才能清空2010年的demand。
至于SO和升级到底有多少，不同人有不同看法。不过上面的分析是基于老中guarantee
的名额。2014年上半年清空2010年的demand是个基准,剩下SO和升级的因素每个人可以
按自己倾向去估计。
至于所谓2012年能清空09年，基本是不现实的。
【如果想清空2011年，按Helsink... 阅读全帖 |
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d1
发帖数: 1213 | 48 每天在外面说中国人数学好。。。真失望，你的3012过了还不到7％，还发这么多贴。
。。。
Helsinki的估计不是保守，是太乐观了：
1. Senate12月1月不上班，最快明年2月末3月初通过，到那时FY2012已经过了一半，
正常算FY2012的3万多名额早已被ROW用去一半（老中的5000名额剩下2500）。
2. 如果通过，未来2-3年会有大量中印EB3升级，他们排期早，生一个拿一个。
这点Helsinki也没算。
不确定因素是SO和升级。
现在看除了SO、升级，老中的名额：FY12拿一半：2500，FY13拿5000，
到FY14中旬（2014年3月）拿2500。这时正好是1万名额。
按Helsinki的demand数据，08,09,10三年老中demand一共是9400，
可以说在没有SO，并且不算EB3升级的情况下，
要到2014年3月才能清空2010年的demand。
至于SO和升级到底有多少，不同人有不同看法。不过上面的分析是基于老中guarantee
的名额。2014年上半年清空2010年的demand是个基准,剩下SO和升级的因素每个人可以
按自己倾向去估计。... 阅读全帖 |
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p***s
发帖数: 584 | 49 你这个说法有一点道理。talented们很多都是140/485一起交，他们申140要很久，尤其
是RFE很多。现在到10月1号只有7个月。也许移民局内部的数据显示talented 140平均
需要7个月以上，所以就默认从现在开始交的都用FY13的名额了。于是就有了SO一说。
对于4万EB2都用完，还是有点奇怪。期待高人解释。 |
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