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全部话题 - 话题: hypothesis
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t*****o
发帖数: 4919
1
来自主题: Food版 - 我建议大家少和咖啡
Daily Coffee May Boost Colon Cancer Survival
By Roni Caryn Rabin August 17, 2015 4:20 pm August 17, 2015 4:20 pm
Photo
Credit William Widmer for The New York Times
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Colon cancer patients who were heavy coffee drinkers had a far lower risk of
dying or having their cancer return than those who did not drink coffee,
with significant benefits starting at two to three cups a day, a new study
found. Patients who drank four cups of caffeinated coffee or mo... 阅读全帖
j**********e
发帖数: 442
2
来自主题: Investment版 - 今天大盘大跌背后的真相
It's not YY. Many serious hypotheses originated from casual guesses.
For example, "option backdating" was a hypothesis that was validated later:
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/elie/backdating.htm
高盛中国20年“魅影”:一直在掠夺从未被揭穿
http://news.wenxuecity.com/messages/201005/news-gb2312-1074231.html
Cornell Univeristy黄明老师的研究显示出高盛的高明,绝非一般人一眼就能看明白的,所以需要细致的研究,抓住蛛丝马迹,然后做serious hypothesis testing
w*****5
发帖数: 515
3
来自主题: JobHunting版 - LinkedIn 面经(Data Scientist)
补充面筋攒rp..是统计方面的
1面: 1) 如何在linkedin上预测一个人要离开公司,2)做一个试验,结果是binary
response,如何能够很快的test hypothesis,以便于尽快结束这个试验? (binary
response test hypothesis, 注意不要用wald test因为没有large sample,要用exact
test,或者直接用binormial dist来test, 注意这样的test比较conservetive)
2面: 1) sql问题,inner join和left join区别, 2)问你的project,如果时间可以重
来,你如何改进, 3) 如何让linkedin上一些passive user变得active(这个问题我没
回答好)
结果:2面悲剧
Q*******1
发帖数: 91
4
怎么确定是否被学校坑了。给你看一个学校的课程表,你看看会不会被坑呢。
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%这个是bgsu的课程设置
Fall
MSA 5020 Regression Analysis
MSA 5400 Database Management
MSA 5470 Exploratory Data Analysis
MSA 6010 Decision Optimization
MSA 6701 Analytics Project I
Spring
MSA 5160 Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting
MSA 5600 Business Intelligence
MSA 6440 Data Mining
MSA 6500 Big Data Analytics
MSA 6702 Analytics Project II
Summer
MSA 6450 Advanced Data Analytics
MSA 6600 Project Management
MSA 6703 Analytics Project III
%%%%%%%%%%%%%这个是S... 阅读全帖
Q*******1
发帖数: 91
5
怎么确定是否被学校坑了。给你看一个学校的课程表,你看看会不会被坑呢。
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%这个是bgsu的课程设置
Fall
MSA 5020 Regression Analysis
MSA 5400 Database Management
MSA 5470 Exploratory Data Analysis
MSA 6010 Decision Optimization
MSA 6701 Analytics Project I
Spring
MSA 5160 Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting
MSA 5600 Business Intelligence
MSA 6440 Data Mining
MSA 6500 Big Data Analytics
MSA 6702 Analytics Project II
Summer
MSA 6450 Advanced Data Analytics
MSA 6600 Project Management
MSA 6703 Analytics Project III
%%%%%%%%%%%%%这个是S... 阅读全帖
T********n
发帖数: 528
6

to
你的思路已经在对的方向了。
我补充一点。Business需要懂一点所以可以知道为什么要做什么不是其中一点。这个是
最重要的一点。
Many times the business owners of initiatives do not know what they want.
Their requests typically have a very specific tactical goal to test against
(one specific hypothesis that justifies a certain action/trend). Being able
to understand the business implication and big picture allows you to help
mold the hypothesis into something that better fits executive goals and more
importantly can lead to something actionable. Also ... 阅读全帖
l********l
发帖数: 1240
7
来自主题: NextGeneration版 - 怀孕一直都用电吹风,郁闷了
I actually read those articles. it said "Overall, the results of this study
provide little evidence supporting the hypothesis that peak or TWA ELF
magnetic fields produced by appliances are causally related to the risk of
childhood leukemia in children."
little evidence, hypothesis, childhood leukemia r the key words i think..
There is no way they can do such reseach on pregnant woman and there unborn
fetus. Even on another article othat they present all the numbers link to
leukemia child.. They... 阅读全帖
u******d
发帖数: 421
8
一声叹息。
虽然那么多的研究都表明“没有证据证明mmr和autism有联系”,但是这并不能证明两
者完全没有联系。后者需要把“无联系”作为hypothesis,而不是null hypothesis。
要更严谨的研究方法才能实现。
对父母来说,statistical probability没有任何意义。轮到你了就是100%。我建议大
家都好好做一下research,听一下两方面的证词,不要完全相信CDC。毕竟CDC的责任是
pubic health,不太可能公开发表不利于MMR的证据。 各大药厂也有很强的动机来瞒报
任何不利于MMR的证据,否则自断财路还是轻的,巨额赔偿才是他们最害怕的后果。
g****0
发帖数: 425
9
【 以下文字转载自 Biology 讨论区 】
发信人: sunnyday (胖头鱼。按斤卖就赚了), 信区: Biology
标 题: 清洁用品里的灭菌剂和过敏的发生有关系
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Sep 14 15:38:34 2013, 美东)
John Hopkins 的研究人员发现,过多的使用灭菌剂,会导致小孩容易发生过敏。
Antibacterials in Personal-Care Products Linked to Allergy Risk in Children
Exposure to common antibacterial chemicals and preservatives found in soap,
toothpaste, mouthwash and other personal-care products may make children
more prone to a wide range of food and environmental allergies, according to
new research from Jo... 阅读全帖
w******a
发帖数: 2057
10
来自主题: Parenting版 - 钢琴是家长的毒品
作个hypothesis testing的话,你这test的p-value肯定太大,fail to reject the
null hypothesis.
我撤了,因为意会到lz正一个人静静地躲在暗处,观看着我们这群人在光天化日下的表
演。
t*******r
发帖数: 22634
11
wiki 里的一句关键句:
“a simpler hypothesis is that a resting brain actually does
more processing than a brain doing certain "demanding" tasks”。
wiki 全段:
In 2007 the concept of the default mode was criticized as not
being useful for understanding brain function, on the grounds
that a simpler hypothesis is that a resting brain actually
does more processing than a brain doing certain "demanding"
tasks, and that there is no special significance to the
intrinsic activity of the resting brain.
wiki 链接:
http:... 阅读全帖
f******d
发帖数: 80
12
来自主题: Parenting版 - 对邻居老人带孩子的观察
好吧,那就算是Hypothesis吧
其实我写出来,主要目的就是请大家多提供样本来检验这个Hypothesis是否成立, 而
不是为了向大家宣告我的结论的啊。
a*****g
发帖数: 19398
13
来自主题: Parenting版 - Put Your Laptops Away
Attention, Students: Put Your Laptops Away
From NPR STAFF. James Doubek
As laptops become smaller and more ubiquitous, and with the advent of
tablets, the idea of taking notes by hand just seems old-fashioned to many
students today. Typing your notes is faster - which comes in handy when
there's a lot of information to take down. But it turns out there are still
advantages to doing things the old-fashioned way.
For one thing, research shows that laptops and tablets have a tendency to be
distract... 阅读全帖
t******l
发帖数: 10908
14
来自主题: Parenting版 - 继续钢琴,还是换庄?
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synesthesia
里面有一段极其符合 pushy mama 推童子功把大脑灰质剪残的 “大脑灰质 pushy mama
剪残“ 理论:
Little is known about how synesthesia develops. It was proposed that
synesthesia develops during childhood when children are intensively engaged
with abstract concepts for the first time.[10] This hypothesis—referred to
as semantic vacuum hypothesis—explains why the most common forms of
synesthesia are grapheme-color, spatial sequence and number form. These are
usually the first abstract concept... 阅读全帖
t******l
发帖数: 10908
15
来自主题: Parenting版 - 构建式数学在中国
我觉得这不是主动的“猜”,这是 intuition。对于这个这个,得提一下最新潮的:
推 “mirror-neuron => object-permanence hypothesis”,这个 hypothesis 是:
(1)从小小娃的 peek-a-boo,到小娃的不硬背九九乘法表,到大娃的 AIME 欧氏几何
题,其底层的支撑,也许都是 object-permanence。而 object-permanence 在 neuro-
substrate 层面,也许就是 mirror neuron。
(2)从小小娃看扔球预知其轨迹,到大人 theory-of-mind 来 "know" 小小娃的
intention,其底层的支撑,也许都是 object-permanence。而 object-permanence 在
neuro-substrate 层面,也许就是 mirror neuron。
t******l
发帖数: 10908
16
来自主题: Parenting版 - 构建式数学在中国
问题是为啥会这样。
我觉得有争议的说,如果用 “mirror-neuron => object-permanence hypothesis”
的话,这个可能不是 psychological effect,这个可能是 biological effect。或者
这么说 hypothesis:
假说是:在大脑的 neuro-substrate 层面处理 object-permanence 的过程中,在
object-permanence 的 “因” 和 “果” 之间,mostly 不是 brain white matter
的 direct connection,mostly 可能是一系列 mirror-neuron firing 的 indirect
connection。
如果对上面这个打个比方,就好比是 “CAT 5e 网线直联” vs “Cisco 路由器击鼓传
花 TCP/IP 包”。
t******l
发帖数: 10908
17
来自主题: Parenting版 - 构建式数学在中国
另外我的初衷是终于可以金盆洗手了,发一个金盆洗手前的感言。
当然感言到半途冒出很多新看法,这个感言拖得确实有点长。
不过这个 “mirror-neuron object-permanence hypothesis” 应该可以收尾了。我目
测不可能能出更多幺蛾子了。都下到 mirror-neuron 之 Cisco 路由器这种 neuro-
substrate 的 hypothesis 的 TCP/IP 底层构件了。
t******l
发帖数: 10908
18
来自主题: Parenting版 - WISC-V 智商测试
你的第一段是 highway hypothesis,也就是一个是熟能生巧到半自动(Automaticity
)。
你这第二个记公式是 long term memory 而不是 working memory。
当然 highway hypothesis 状态是容易导致遗忘。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_hypnosis

:有些人确实可以一心二用。
t******l
发帖数: 10908
19
来自主题: Parenting版 - WISC-V 智商测试
我现在有个 hypothesis,也许能解释你说的 ADHD 的 HGT 现象。。
这个 hypothesis 是,假设有两个虚构的娃,一个是 hyperlexia,另一个是 neuro-
typical,在除了导致 hyerlexia 的因子以外,两娃的其他智力情商因子都差不多。
那下一贴从这个角度开始。
u********e
发帖数: 4950
20
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
bobcat2010 (bobcat2010) 于 (Tue Jul 12 10:27:18 2011, 美东) 提到:
熵增加是宇宙中的一个普遍原理,很多人觉得很玄。下面的表格可看成熵增加原理在股
市中的
见证。表格中的数据是我用信息论的方法得到的,恕我不能披露所用模型的构造。
Entropy
S&P500 SIRI
1/2/98 97.54 95.44
1/7/99 97.85 96.49
1/2/01 98.37 97.65
1/2/08 98.87 98.43
1/4/10 99.04 98.29
1/7/11 99.12 98.42
表格中包含了S&P500 与 SIRI 在不同日期的熵值。最大值规整为100。
定性地说,熵值越高,TA的效果越差,熵值若真达到100,所有TA方法都将失效。
SIRI的熵值显然低于指数的熵值。而在我的套利交易中SIRI算是盈利较多的。一般来说
个股的熵值低于股指的熵值,这是做个股的优势。SIRI的熵值曾一度下降,... 阅读全帖
d******8
发帖数: 1972
21
Chinese stocks are extremely undervalued and U.S. investors should heavily
increase their exposure to benefit from the emerging market's long-term
growth, says Burton Malkiel, author of the financial classic "A Random Walk
Down Wall Street."
“These are the most attractive multiples I’ve ever seen,” said Malkiel,
79, who pioneered the indexing investment philosophy, at a speech Wednesday
for Guggenheim Funds at the New York Stock Exchange.
The economist was referring to a slide showing several va... 阅读全帖
A***l
发帖数: 302
22
来自主题: Stock版 - 说说sell in may的原因
Doeswijk (2008) provided a hypothesis that an optimism cycle is the cause of
this seasonal pattern: Investors start looking forward to the next year as
the current year winds down, often with an optimism bias to overestimate the
economic growth, which drives up the stock market. A few months into a new
year, such optimism bias gradually disappears, which causes lackluster
returns in the rest six months. At least two of his observations support the
optimism cycle hypothesis. The first is that cyc... 阅读全帖
b******1
发帖数: 1116
23
HEB 没啥希望的。。。它们的Ampligen研究了十几年都没什么结果,而且它们的R&D人
不行,设计的临床试验不能validate hypothesis. 他们的hypothesis他们自己都不清
楚。。。估计会AMEX都待不下去了
d********1
发帖数: 2462
24
来自主题: Stock版 - 人类一定是起源于地球么?
Hypothesis: 人类是起源于地球以外的星球的。然后可以reject这个hypothesis,就圆
满了
t**********n
发帖数: 283
25
来自主题: Immigration版 - PP got NOID then approved
I have the hard copy, not E-file; besides it is supposed confidential..sorry
for that.
My personal suggestions, ...general words...will be...are weak. Trying to
dig some specific facts to support your claims. For example, citations:
yours much higher than peers, big guys citing yours, provoking further
hypothesis, replicated by others... there are some tricks....I have one
publication in a low-profile journal: using another standard it ranks very
high, my citations multiple times higher than ave... 阅读全帖
R*******d
发帖数: 13640
26
来自主题: Immigration版 - 斯坦大学教授教你怎样审稿 (转载)
【 以下文字转载自 NewMexico 讨论区 】
发信人: Rosefield (Rosenhof), 信区: NewMexico
标 题: 斯坦大学教授教你怎样审稿
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Nov 8 10:13:35 2013, 美东)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7x7Nr2Scic
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/q7x7Nr2Scic
How to do a peer view? Transcript
Welcome to week eight of the course. This is the final week of the
course.
Thanks everyone for making it along this far and for the great
participation in
this course. The paper revisions will be due at the
end of this week. That will ... 阅读全帖
t*******n
发帖数: 2319
27
没有人发过这个吧?
我就copy了前半部分。 后边还有很多统计图表,打开链接自己看,挺好玩的。
版主给我发个双黄包吧。
http://rpubs.com/columbia202/27405
Using the information that users have shared publicly on trackitt.com, I
made some graphs and did some basic hypothesis testing. In order to get the
data, I simply scraped all the webpages using R, and cleaned the data by
removing incomplete cases.
Percentage of applicants in each category, and the correspondent percentages
of accepted, pending, and denied cases
## types percentage accepted pending... 阅读全帖
W***o
发帖数: 6519
28
null hypothesis的 P-value 好像不significant,但是这并不等于说null hypothesis
是正确的
t*******n
发帖数: 2319
29
【 以下文字转载自 Immigration 讨论区 】
发信人: tsingyuan (空空道人), 信区: Immigration
标 题: Some Statistics on I-140 Applications Using trackitt.com Data (zz)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 3 13:45:35 2014, 美东)
没有人发过这个吧?
我就copy了前半部分。 后边还有很多统计图表,打开链接自己看,挺好玩的。
版主给我发个双黄包吧。
http://rpubs.com/columbia202/27405
Using the information that users have shared publicly on trackitt.com, I
made some graphs and did some basic hypothesis testing. In order to get the
data, I simply scraped all the webpages using R, and cleaned the data ... 阅读全帖
c**i
发帖数: 6973
30
来自主题: Taiwan版 - Freud and Female Orgasm
My comment:
(a) In Taiwan I learned sex education--not the kind for children such as
bees or birds--in various courses and round tables. Freud's hypothesis on
female orgasm, about contribution of clitoris or vagina was mentioned
fleetingly; nobody gave it any thouhgt. It was mid 1970s. I do not practice
sex myself, so have no stake on it. For years, I have visited the Sex board
of this bbs. I have been puzzled by Chines--at least some of them--treating
the hypothesis as if it was bible. Naturall
N********n
发帖数: 13236
31
【 以下文字转载自 Joke 讨论区 】
发信人: honde (宏德), 信区: Joke
标 题: 【男征女】别笑话,哥也着急了 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 10 01:09:21 2013, 美东)
发信人: zmsi (zmsi), 信区: Piebridge
标 题: 【男征女】别笑话,哥也着急了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu May 9 20:23:32 2013, 美东)
★性别: 男
★取向:直
★出生年份: Dec. 1981
★所在地(至少明确state): Chicago西郊
★职业情况(学生还是工作): 工作
★简单的物理参数(身高/体重): 168cm/70kg
★当前婚姻状态(从没结过婚/离异/丧偶): 从没结过婚
★联系方式(email/IM/站内): s******************[email protected]
我有时候在想,自己30多岁了都还没能结婚,会不会是因为还在等天降大任;我时刻准
备着,在这个漫长的等待中,我去物理系学习了换灯泡,又去数学系研究了算水电费,
还漂洋过海去计算机系进修了网线的各种接法。... 阅读全帖
v****e
发帖数: 19471
32
来自主题: LosAngeles版 - 富士康
几十万名18--28岁的男女,半年里发生10万次情感危机再正常不过了。这10万次里头有
100次发生在性格压抑,有轻度抑郁症甚至自杀倾向的人身上,这个概率也很正常,甚至
可能偏低了。这100次里面有5次,当事人自杀了,另有7次,当事人受到之前自杀事件的
暗示,也自杀了。这些都是具有相当高可能性的假设。整体来看,12/400,000这个自杀
率也并未超出正常的自杀率范围。
所以,他们这个解释是外部人士无法证伪的。我并没有说它就是对的。我们是fail to
reject their hypothesis, 而不是accept their hypothesis.
r*****e
发帖数: 4598
33
【 以下文字转载自 Piebridge 讨论区 】
发信人: zmsi (zmsi), 信区: Piebridge
标 题: 【男征女】别笑话,哥也着急了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu May 9 20:23:32 2013, 美东)
★性别: 男
★取向:直
★出生年份: Dec. 1981
★所在地(至少明确state): Chicago西郊
★职业情况(学生还是工作): 工作
★简单的物理参数(身高/体重): 168cm/70kg
★当前婚姻状态(从没结过婚/离异/丧偶): 从没结过婚
★联系方式(email/IM/站内): s******************[email protected]
我有时候在想,自己30多岁了都还没能结婚,会不会是因为还在等天降大任;我时刻准
备着,在这个漫长的等待中,我去物理系学习了换灯泡,又去数学系研究了算水电费,
还漂洋过海去计算机系进修了网线的各种接法。
离开学校以后,我主要是靠帮村里的阿伯预测每日生猪价格的涨跌来维持生计,偶尔协
助对面放高利贷的胖头在政府的年度银行压力测试中作弊,也曾接私活主持开发了村口
典当行的新型超高速交易模型。... 阅读全帖
R*******d
发帖数: 13640
34
来自主题: NewMexico版 - 斯坦大学教授教你怎样审稿
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7x7Nr2Scic
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/q7x7Nr2Scic
How to do a peer view? Transcript
Welcome to week eight of the course. This is the final week of the
course.
Thanks everyone for making it along this far and for the great
participation in
this course. The paper revisions will be due at the
end of this week. That will be the last assignment.
This week, I'm going to be talking about what happens after publication.
So, after you get papers pu... 阅读全帖
c********e
发帖数: 6158
35
for testing a hypothesis regarding female, you need at least 384 female. you
need bigger sample size if you want to test a hypothesis regarding the sub
racial groups of female. however, 400 is the total study population -
including both male and female.
j**4
发帖数: 10425
36
来自主题: NewYork版 - Female porn stars
have higher self-esteem and better quality of life than other women,
according to new study
A study published this week has debunked the stereotypical portrayal of porn
actresses as 'damaged goods' who enter the adult entertainment industry
because they suffer from low esteem or have been victims of childhood sexual
abuse.
The report in the Journal of Sex Research found that porn stars are not more
likely to have psychological problems than other women.
In fact, they discovered those in the sex ... 阅读全帖
O*******e
发帖数: 1024
37
来自主题: Oregon版 - [合集] 发言时请不要诽谤谩骂
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
roger503 (roger503) 于 (Wed Aug 31 02:02:49 2011, 美东) 提到:
看到大家的发言, 有一个问题想提醒一下的就是: 大家发言的时候一定要注意不要有
诽谤谩骂之类的言辞出现。诽谤谩骂既失去了讨论的意义,无形中贬低了自己,也有可
能构成了法律意义上的defamation.
在Oregon, “A defamatory communication is one which would subject a person
to hatred, contempt or ridicule, or tend to diminish the esteem, respect,
goodwill or confidence in which one is held or to excite adverse, derogatory
, or unpleasant feelings or opinions against one.” 在中国,损害结果一般是构
成诽谤的必须要件之... 阅读全帖
t********s
发帖数: 450
38
来自主题: Seattle版 - Seattle的一些地方名字来源 (4)
Puyallup: 就是每年都有大型庙会的那个,Named after the Puyallup Tribe of
Native Americans, Puyallup means "the generous people."
还有Tacoma,是从Mount Rainer的旧名来的。
Adopted its name after the nearby Mount Rainier, originally called Takhoma
or Tahoma.
那Tacoma到底什么意思呢?就是比 “Mount Baker更大的山”
Mount Rainier was first known by the Native Americans as Talol, or Tacoma or
Tahoma. One hypothesis of the word origin is [təqʷúʔbə
ʔ] ("mother of waters"), in the Lushootseed language spoken by the
Puyallup ... 阅读全帖
w***s
发帖数: 7132
39
猫姐姐你是搞统计的吧……俺看昏了已经……
以下的理解对不对:
H0--Null hypothesis---假设样本量和总体量没差异 (只是统计误差造成的微小差别)
alpha值是提前确定的,比如confident level 是95%,则alpha 是1-95%=5%,即我
们可以相信有95%的几率,样本量是可以代表总体数据的。
P value (or alpha) 是拒绝null hypothesis (当h0=true)的几率 (type I error发生的几率)
--alpha和P值的关系是一个是事先定的,一个是后来算的。
如果P 和总体量是有差异的。
-------------
俺现在去研究t test z test anova test都怎么用……
B******1
发帖数: 9094
40
来自主题: WashingtonDC版 - 我这五年的事 (转载)
发信人: cyberholic (cyberholic), 信区: Chemistry
标 题: Re: 我这五年的事
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Dec 25 20:00:55 2012, 美东)
Steve Mason教授是个喜欢做好人的人。印象比较深的是,有一次开组会,应该是什么
ethics training,大家说起了Sames和Sezen的事情(他们两就用真名了,也算是公众
人物了)。他说: Sames人很聪明,早年还为我说了几句话呢(他是指grants,
proposals之类的事情)。他出了事以后,我看到报纸报道,就赶紧给他发了email,说
听说你那里出了不少事情,good luck。Steve然后反问我们,你们觉得我做得对吗?说
罢环视左右,大家都没出声。
我自认在科研上天赋不高。Qualify过得有点丢脸。试来拭去的折腾了到了二年级末,
也没找到高ee。只能如实地把做过的事说一遍。Committee劈头盖脸地说,应该
formulate hypothesis,应该hypothesis driven,screening没意义等等等等等等。我
只有一个劲... 阅读全帖
G***a
发帖数: 27294
41
光算卡路里是过简单了。
可是站半个小时能消耗的卡路里确实是低于日常代谢两个数量级。
低于两个数量级的东西,是怎么能产生作用的呢?能有理论模型吗?反正我想不出来合
理的理论模型。
因此,就算有funding支持,做research, 最基本的就是hypothesis-driven.
没有hypothesis,和理论模型,给你钱,你也试不出来啊!

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb - 中文网站浏览器
G***a
发帖数: 27294
42
当然可以做实验。只要你自己愿意,你自己有钱就行:)
我只是针对他说的, "没有这种实验,是因为没有funding"这句话而言。欧美国家所
有的funding agency几乎只fund hypothesis-driven的实验
你没有理论模型,人家再有钱,也不会给你钱。
因为,没有理论模型,就很有可能乱试,很有可能abuse subject,也很有可能钱打水
漂。
而且,没有理论模型,从一个侧面也证明了investigator对相应的literature不熟悉,
所以想不出合理的hypothesis。
Investigator本身的素质,也是决定实验成功的重大因素
如果你是funding agency,面对那么多有系统理论的申请人,你也不会把钱给没有理论
,要乱实验的人啊。。。
总结,没有理论,你要做preliminary data是可以,但是要从自己兜里掏钱。
有preliminary data之后,你也要形成理论,才能申请funding。光有data,没有理论
,也一样申不到钱。
这是科学界的普遍现状。
G***a
发帖数: 27294
43
来自主题: loseweight版 - 话说,美国的OB这么不靠谱么?
首先,我也画了整个通路图。那么你很容易就可以查出我是否是"一知半解"
那就是根据我给的reference和通路图,提出科学上的质疑和问题, 甚至考考我。
但我没发现,你对我给的reference有兴趣,也不想question我
只是assume我是"一知半解" ---这有可能是false assumption,因为很有可能我知道
比你医生还多。
其次,就实践经验来说。医学不是木工。医学的实践是evidence-based practice
所谓evidence-based practice,其实原理和做实验一样,必须有理论基础,有
hypothesis,有证据支持这个hypothesis,然后再实践
一个好的医生,必须明白是怎么回事,才实践的。
因此,医学是"理论指导实践"的,不是反过来。
第三,所有搞过scientific publication的人,都知道一句话
Saying is human,writing is divine
平时说的话,难免有错误,只有经过反复edit过的材料才是最坚实的依据。包括医生自
己。
最后,医生虽然对他的话必须负责,但是他不会对你转述他的话负责。
你... 阅读全帖
P****D
发帖数: 11146
44
来自主题: loseweight版 - 为毛大家都觉得跑步减肥?
你们搞生物的,请一定要stick to your hypothesis,不要想到一出是一出!我忍你们
很久了,只是工作中敢怒不敢言而已。如果你的original hypothesis是“想论证节食
效果比跑步强”,那就别扯interaction!你要explore,咱们再说explore的。
N******t
发帖数: 16051
45
这个理论叫做“acid-ash hypothesis”,说大量动物蛋白的摄入会导致体内pH变酸,
需要分解骨骼提取钙质来中和
事实上,近期的几篇meta-analysis都不支持这种观点。我摘抄最近一篇review的
abstract:
"Milk and dairy products neither produce acid upon metabolism nor cause
metabolic acidosis, and systemic pH is not influenced by diet. Observations
of higher dairy product intake in countries with prevalent osteoporosis do
not hold when urban environments are compared, likely due to physical labor
in rural locations. "
"Measurement of an acidic pH urine does not reflect metaboli... 阅读全帖
B******e
发帖数: 16928
46
来自主题: Soccer版 - 球员受伤不能上场确实很正常
因为你的回应完全是你自己的YY,根本无法reject alternative hypothesis
梅西自己感觉不好是周三的比赛,为什么感觉不好?因为周末的比赛又上了疲劳加剧。
周末的比赛呢?也许是教练组因为比分落后所以要让梅西上来挽回比分,我说的是这一
场而不是周三的比赛,这个alternative hypothesis你根本没办法reject.

z***i
发帖数: 9880
47
来自主题: Soccer版 - 低压锅被瓜扇耳光了
统计做不了test这个我们昨天就讨论了sample size确实不够。但其实真不是8次5次,要
是就看最近的6年欧洲就丢了一次。
但其实本质上以后欧洲球队夺世俱杯比之前夺丰田杯容易是个forecast问题,就是fore
cast夺冠概率是否>52%(或者说远大于52% say 60%)的问题。虽然hypothesis做不了,
但make这个forecast还是可以的吧,forecast并不一定要用hypothesis test,简单的m
oving average或者qualitative method看看现在欧洲寡头俱乐部实力做这个forecast还
是reasonble的。太多种组合会forecast下次欧洲球队夺冠概率超过52%。
y**w
发帖数: 516
48
Paraben structure is not SIMILAR to estrogen. If you read WIKI, your
conclusion is so far no conclusive experiment could demonstrate the
correlation between cancer and paraben.
Please read more carefully.
here is good reference. Parabens, oestrogenicity, underarm cosmetics and
breast cancer: a perspective on a hypothesis
Journal of Applied Toxicology
Volume 23, Issue 5, pages 285–288, September/October 2003
Abstract
A recent review by Darbre (2003) published in this journal (J. Appi. Toxicol
. 2... 阅读全帖
y**w
发帖数: 516
49
Paraben structure is not SIMILAR to estrogen. If you read WIKI, your
conclusion is so far no conclusive experiment could demonstrate the
correlation between cancer and paraben.
Please read more carefully.
here is good reference. Parabens, oestrogenicity, underarm cosmetics and
breast cancer: a perspective on a hypothesis
Journal of Applied Toxicology
Volume 23, Issue 5, pages 285–288, September/October 2003
Abstract
A recent review by Darbre (2003) published in this journal (J. Appi. Toxicol
. 2... 阅读全帖
a*o
发帖数: 25262
50
来自主题: LeisureTime版 - Ipad 3, 说说 Steve Jobs (转载)
什么 hypothesis?
阿哥的还是阿妹的?
种田的时候听隔壁年迈的的阿婆说的,有个哥的叫哥巴赫的 hypothesis 很出名的。。
既然有阿哥的猜想,那肯定有阿妹的猜想了。。
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