l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 Calif. Democrats walk middle path in health debate
April 12, 2014 - 11:03 AM
By KEVIN FREKING, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic Rep. Ami Bera has been making a habit lately
of bucking his own president and voting with the Republican majority in the
House as it moves to amend or overturn parts of the national health care law.
Bera, a physician who favors expanding access to health coverage, said that'
s consistent with his position that Congress should keep what works in the
law and ... 阅读全帖 |
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z*****n
发帖数: 151 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: zhixian (三国), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 加州：AD-16即将创造华人参政的辉煌
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr 30 01:40:40 2014, 美东)
共和党的资金确实是有限。要打破民主党的super majority，他们确实只能集中
在几个有限的区。
最近有人拿一个几个月前的共和党资料，说Baker并没有被列入共和党的重点支
持。企图破坏华人对AD-16的Baker 信心。其实，不用什么内部材料，我以下自己整理
的列表，就可以告诉你，AD-36， AD-65，SD-34 是要争夺的席位中的重中之重，另加
两个中加州需要保住的两个参院席位。但是，AD-36 和AD-65 都是挑战现有的在位者，
虽战况激烈，却谁也无法保证100%的胜算。因此，增加一到两个区，以增加保险系数是
必然的。
现在的问题是，AD-16 和AD-66哪个会成为更受垂青的区。党内的相当多的意见
，是AD-66可能更有希望。他们的根据是，在2012年和2010... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 German Jewish Émigrés and U.S. Invention
via Cato Headlines
Immigration policy has been the subject of heated debate in the United
States. One key claim in support of high-skill immigration is that it spurs
innovation, but existing evidence is mixed. New research by Petra Moser,
Alessandra Voena, and Fabian Waldinger provides new evidence on this
question by examining the impact on innovation of German Jewish scientists
who fled from Nazi Germany to the United States after 1932.
“Germa... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 ‘Salute The Tea Party Of Texas’: Tea Party Candidates Win Big In Primary
Runoff
May 28, 2014 5:36 AM
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Republican voters appeared ready to push Texas even
further to the right Tuesday, backing Tea Party favorites and casting out
longtime Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst for a state senator and firebrand radio
talk show host who criticized the incumbent as too moderate for one of the
state’s most powerful political jobs.
Dan Patrick, who emerged as the front runner from the first round ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 5 June 4, 2014 - 1:35 PM
By JAY REEVES, Associated Press
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) — New laws requiring voters to present photo
identification at the polls were enforced in two Southern primaries on
Tuesday, but with mixed results.
In Alabama, there were few hitches, but a razor-tight U.S. Senate race in
Mississippi could hinge on provisional ballots, some of them cast as a
result of a new voter ID law.
Here are five things to know about voter ID laws:
WHAT HAPPENED DURING THE PRIMARIES?
No major prob... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 6 Mark Zuckerberg Just Proved Liberals Hate Bipartisanship
July 9, 2014
Silly little Mark Zuckerberg thought that because he knew how to create an
Internet-based tech company he could obliterate America’s borders and
legalize illegal immigration with his “smarts.” While his effort has thus
far proven to be a failure, one thing he did succeed in doing is unmask the
lie that liberals are interested in bipartisan solutions to… well, to
anything.
A recent article in Politico reports that Suckerberg’s... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 7 If Chicagoans Would Vote for Commie Karen Lewis, They Shouldn’t Be Allowed
to Vote at All
July 15, 2014
A new poll of likely Chicago voters seems to find that Mayor Rahm Emanuel is
in bad shape for his re-election coming up next year. The poll shows that
two other candidates are far and away more popular than the incumbent mayor.
One of those two is Chicago Teachers Union President Karen Lewis, a woman
who is nearly an out and proud communist. But, if Chicagoans would vote for
Lewis, they don’t... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 8 Poll: GOP Candidate Holds 13-Point Lead in Democratic New York Congressional
District
6:28 PM, Sep 11, 2014 • By JOHN MCCORMACK
In New York's 21st congressional district, Republican Elise Stefanik is
leading Democrat Aaron Woolf 46 precent to 33 percent, according to a new
poll released by Siena College Thursday evening. Green Party candidate Matt
Funiciello garners 10 percent of the vote, and 11 percent remain undecided.
The race for the 21st district has been rated a "toss-up" by the Coo... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 9 Debate Crowd Laughs As Democratic Senator Dodges Question On Support For
Obama [VIDEO]
10:33 PM 10/21/2014
Derek Hunter
At a time when being seen as too close to President Barack Obama is a
political liability, Democratic candidates are rushing to distance
themselves from the man. But two things are standing in their way – their
voting records and the president himself.
The president this week told Al Sharpton:
“We’ve got a tough map. A lot of the states that are contested this time
are states t... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 10 Connecticut’s Democrat Governor Enacts Mandatory Ebola Quarantine Prior to
Obama Campaign Stop
by Jammie via Jammie Wearing Fools
Somehow we doubt he’ll face as much scrutiny as Chris Christie.
Connecticut officials have joined counterparts in other states –
including New York and New Jersey — in defending and detailing quarantine
powers they’ve enacted as a precaution against the Ebola virus.
Connecticut Gov. Dannel P. Malloy and Public Health Commissioner Dr.
Jewel Mullen announced Mon... 阅读全帖 |
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r*********e
发帖数: 7733 | 11 Pennsylvania 共和党输了，德州赢了。Arizona共和党没有悬念。CT和CO咬得很紧。
incumbent |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 GOP adds another Senate seat as Sullivan wins Alaska
Republican candidate Dan Sullivan defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark
Begich in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race Wednesday.
The win gives the GOP eight Senate pickups in the midterm elections. The
party is also seeking a ninth seat in Louisiana’s runoff in December.
Sullivan ran a confident campaign, ignoring the debate schedule Begich
established and setting his own terms.
He pledged to fight federal overreach, talked about energy independence a... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 13 支持
Blum先生是个好人啊。
He speaks in plain-Midwestern tones sprinkling his conversation with the
Yiddish word emes (pronounced "EM-ess"), which means "truth." A 1973
graduate of the University of Texas, Blum said he started out as a Democrat,
but by the early 1980s began reading the neoconservative Commentary
magazine and changed his views. In 1984 he voted for Ronald Reagan. He soon
became a successful stockbroker at Paine Webber in Houston. Then, in the
early 1990s, came the "acorn that began all my a... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********I
发帖数: 10729 | 14 支持
Blum先生是个好人啊。
He speaks in plain-Midwestern tones sprinkling his conversation with the
Yiddish word emes (pronounced "EM-ess"), which means "truth." A 1973
graduate of the University of Texas, Blum said he started out as a Democrat,
but by the early 1980s began reading the neoconservative Commentary
magazine and changed his views. In 1984 he voted for Ronald Reagan. He soon
became a successful stockbroker at Paine Webber in Houston. Then, in the
early 1990s, came the "acorn that began all my a... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 15 The American public has questions. And unlike others running for president,
I have frank answers.
And with my answers to major questions presented below, I officially throw
my hat into the GOP presidential sweepstakes ring.
11 Questions US Public Wants to Ask Candidates
Gallup has an interesting article based on the premise If the American
People Were Running the GOP Debate what would they ask?
Gallup claims the questions are based on issues that people say are the most
important problems facing... 阅读全帖 |
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l**t
发帖数: 6971 | 16 政客之所以总是被代表少数人的利益集团左右，而不是代表广大中产阶级的利益，正是
因为中产阶级之“中”。因为其“中”，所以没有什么要命的强烈的诉求。经济政策比
如加税减税还有福利，对巨富和穷人来说都是伤筋动骨的核心利益，是要团结起来出钱
出力拼命争取的。对中产阶级来说则不过是每年几千美元，所以往往只是嘴上骂一骂，
不会诉诸行动，不值得为此给政客捐钱。另外比如说这个同性恋婚姻，对支持一方来说
这是核心利益，可以为此大笔捐钱。反对一方则总是停留在打嘴炮。
所以对于中产阶级来说，如果出现一个candidate，有稳固基本盘和财力，有不依赖于
媒体吹捧的自然魅力，他相对来说肯定受利益集团的影响小，对中产阶级会更好。2008
年的Obama正是如此。到了2012年连任，有了incumbent的包袱，没有了08年的气势如虹
，Obama不得不借助于LGBT和Latino的势力，所以你看他第二任的政策明显跑偏。
现在的Trump比2008年的Obama条件更好。Trump自己有钱，可以pick and choose他的
donor，不用逢迎利益集团。Trump在娱乐界摸爬滚打多年，名气早就打出来了，不用... 阅读全帖 |
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m****s
发帖数: 494 | 17 What is most important for America and the next president? For me, the
answer is obvious — we have lacked leadership in both parties, and because
of this leadership deficit, the American people live in a nation less safe
and in a world that is more uncertain. Americans deserve real leadership in
the White House, and the choices Americans have in this presidential
campaign are clear.
What passes for leadership in Washington is really more about position,
seniority and the influences of special in... 阅读全帖 |
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a**e
发帖数: 8800 | 18 州议员才几个？
选举是从底层一步一步向上的。
一般从学区的教育委员会开始。
就开会时间一样，就基本上把真正生产工作的人排除了。
如果你有资格和能力竞选州议员了，那几千到万把的注册费不是问题，但是对不同的人
确实是不同的：
对于生产工作的人，这笔钱基本就是白瞎了。
对于律师和商业狎客，这笔钱是效用最好的广告费支出。
所以这个制度是全方位的打击社会财富的制造者，无论工农科技人员还是真正的商人。
If you are running for the U.S. House, Senate or the Presidency, you must
register with the FEC once you (or persons acting on your behalf) receive
contributions or make expenditures in excess of $5,000. Within 15 days of
reaching that $5,000 threshold, you must file a Statement of Candidacy (FEC
Form ... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 19 你说的有些道理，他们的influence还在哪儿，上两次，没有突出的偏右候选人，散瞳
木和哈科比，除了宗教，其它方面太弱。其实，12年时，newt要出来，估计即使输了，
也不会输的那么窝囊，因为对incumbent 一直都非常难。
了。 |
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f**********n
发帖数: 29853 | 20 阿里歪，先谢谢这个链接。
我读完了，该文作者的结论是总统对经济增长没啥效果，就是运气而已。下面这段摘自
该文。
阿里歪你贴证据之前，自己先读完，好不好呀。
Political scientists have shown that the performance of the economy is one
of the most important factors for voters when they head to the polls. If the
economy is doing well, the incumbent will likely win, and vice versa. But
Blinder and Watson have shown that the president has little effect on the
economy. Economic performance is determined by factors that are largely
outside the control of public policy, or at least ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 22 In the lead-up to Donald Trump’s loss in Iowa, staffers sought additional
funding for campaign infrastructure and were denied.
Now, six days from the New Hampshire primary and looking for his first win,
Trump is still refusing to shake up his ground game. He has added just one
paid organizer in the state, a move that came a month ago. Instead, he is
pushing ahead with plans to campaign outside of the state in the final week
of voting and will count on the glamour of famous surrogates, including ... 阅读全帖 |
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c******i
发帖数: 4091 | 23 In the recent debate, Trump was given a chance to recant or at least clarify
his Playboy comment. Instead, he basically defended his previous statement,
saying, “That doesn’t mean I was endorsing that. I said that was a strong
, powerful government. They kept down the riot, it was a horrible thing.”
And horrible things, in Trump World, are sometimes necessary. What is so
disturbing here is that Trump’s default to despotism rears its head often
enough in other ways to be a pattern. Recently, he u... 阅读全帖 |
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x****d
发帖数: 2239 | 24 有一篇以前的Ron Paul 的campaign advisor: Doug Wead 写给Trump team的：
Warning to the Trumpets. It ain’t over. It is just beginning.
Below are a list of tactics that Establishment Republicans may use to block
the nomination of Donald Trump. Yes, I know. If they succeed they will not
win the White House but many in the establishment will make just as much
money under a Democrat insider as they will with a Republican insider. So
they may not care.
All they may want to do is send the message to any future “ou... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 25 Roger
Why doesn't the GOP and the media go after Cruz with the same vigor they use
to go after Trump? As for the Cruz Trump fight it was Cruz who started it
allowing one of the pac's to do the ad featuring Melania. I liked the pic
but hated the content of the ad. Pay attention to the real content of Trump,
he doesn't say as much crap about women as the media, gop and dnc want you
to believe. He makes a statement today and they are all still talking about
for months making you believe he said it ... 阅读全帖 |
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K********y
发帖数: 5068 | 26 Exactly, the same opinion with you -- That seems to be the only possible way
for Trump to gain the presidential campaign in 2016~~
time for Trump to start preparing to challenge all incumbents in all
congressional district for all the congressional and senate seats. That
will be a prelude to a third party presidential run. Time is running short |
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M****1
发帖数: 702 | 27 Fox News的访谈里Trump说：
"I think somebody with political experience, that really has a close
relationship with the Senate, with Congress, where they go in and help so we
don’t have to sign executive orders like President Obama does every hour."
根据这句话判断，最可能的人选是目前国会incumbent的某人，至少在国会做过8年以上
，在参众两院都有良好的人脉和关系，观念不太激进，出镜率中等，风格比较稳重和坚
韧，年龄在65岁以下。
目前大家熟悉的国会人Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, 纽金，Rubio都不太可能，Rand不讨喜
，Ryan选过VP了而且议长当得正开心，纽金太老，Rubio太嫩。 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 28 Los Angeles TV station discovers hundreds of dead people voting
By Thomas Lifson
Every time a state tries to enact reasonable voter identification
legislation, Democrats (and only Democrats) rush to assure us that vote
fraud is very rare.
Unless you look for it, as the Los Angeles CBS affiliate did:
A comparison of records by David Goldstein, investigative reporter for
CBS2/KCAL9, has revealed hundreds of so-called dead voters in Southern
California, a vast majority of them in Los Angeles Co... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 29 WARSAW, Poland (Reuters) - President Barack Obama on Friday made an
impassioned plea for the nation to do more to address the combative
relationship between local police forces and the black and Hispanic
communities they serve, after the shootings of two black men by police in
Minnesota and Louisiana in two days.
"When incidents like this occur, there's a big chunk of our fellow citizenry
that feels as if because of the color of their skin they are not being
treated the same," Obama said shortly... 阅读全帖 |
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t*c
发帖数: 8291 | 31 incumbant本来对挑战者有巨大优势的，因为经过一个任期的经营，很多社会名流去附
庸了，重选会从他们身上得到很多的资源，钱和endorsement.
但是普通选民发声了， 本来沉默的不投票的，这次出来投票了。 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 32 President Obama Is 'Reaching Across the Aisle' to Smack Donald Trump
Partisan politics played perfectly.
By Charles P. Pierce
...
It's been a long time since we had an incumbent president who actively
campaigned for the person he wanted to succeed him.
Teddy Roosevelt pushed hard for William Howard Taft, and then regretted the
hell out of it thereafter, and even tried to beat him four years later.
Eisenhower held Nixon at arm's length, the way you carry a snake, as any
reasonable person would.
H... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 34 A new study by two Old Dominion University professors, based on survey data
from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, indicated that 6.4
percent of all non-citizens voted illegally in the 2008 presidential
election, and 2.2 percent in the 2010 midterms.
Given that 80 percent of non-citizens lean Democratic, they cite Al Franken
’s 312-vote win in the 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate race as one likely tipped
by non-citizen voting.
As a senator, Franken cast the 60th vote needed to make Obamac... 阅读全帖 |
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|
发帖数: 1 | 36 Michael Straw, a senior at Penn State University, returned to campus this
week, put on a crisp blue suit, and walked into a Trump buzzsaw.
The president of the school’s chapter of College Republicans had a sense of
what he was in for. Less than two weeks before, the group had announced in
a Facebook post that they would not endorse Donald Trump after holding an
online vote — a move that sparked outrage, including a call from the
chairman of the Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans for ... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 37 August 30, 2016
Another Soros puppet string revealed
By Thomas Lifson
George Soros has directed his wealth into an under-the-radar 2016 campaign
to advance one of the progressive movement’s core goals — reshaping the
American justice system.
The billionaire financier has channeled more than $3 million into seven
local district attorney campaigns in six states over the past year — a sum
that exceeds the total spent on the 2016 presidential campaign by all but a
handful of rival super-donors.
His ... 阅读全帖 |
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l*********o
发帖数: 3091 | 39 Replacing a member of a major-party ticket would be exceedingly rare, though
not unprecedented. This happened in 1972 when Democratic nominee George
McGovern’s running mate -- Sen. Thomas Eagleton -- withdrew from the race
in July after it was revealed he had undergone electric shock treatment for
mental health issues.
Eagleton was replaced in August by Sargent Shriver as the new vice
presidential nominee. The McGovern/Shriver ticket went on to lose the race
in a landslide to incumbent President... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 40 Portman 绝对是个指示灯。对 trump 赢 OH 乐观。
Another Republican, Senator Rob Portman, holds a commanding lead of 53
percent to 36 percent over former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland in the
state’s U.S. Senate contest. The incumbent leads with a ratio of more than
2-to-1 among independents and is even getting 14 percent from Democrats and
those who lean that way.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/440027/basket-full-favorable-polls-trump |
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p**f
发帖数: 3549 | 41 主档一些做法跟憋党很像，为保政权，不择手段，而不是从广大老百姓谋福祉利益出发。
主档借政治正确搞腐败，搞大福利。赢家是票蛆和incumbents，输掉的是广大中产，以
及公司（交税者）。康州政府雇员薪水高到惊人。随便一个校园警局局长，年薪轻松30
万，这都是从政府抽薪水的啊。大政府，好福利，养闲人，外加养一堆票蛆，只能提高
各种税收了，消费税，个人所得税，公司税，无一不在长。主档一直坐政下去，就是个
恶性循环。康州虽小，可管中窥豹，其命运亦适用于整个美国。
主档和憋国不同的是，美国可自由迁徙，主档害了人，人可以跑。憋国害了你，你跑不
了。
如果全美国都是主档这样子，基本也没地跑了。。 |
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l*****o
发帖数: 19235 | 42 It's that time of year again, Mr. President.
Time to celebrate the lingering Yuletide spirit and the bright promise of
the year to come. Time to savor the companionship of friends and family.
Time to donate your underpants to a charitable organization so you can later
claim a deduction on your 1993 tax return.
If the recent past is any guide, Bill Clinton and his wife, First Lady
Hillary Rodham Clinton, have been spending the past few months gathering up
unwanted belongings -- from old shoes to ... 阅读全帖 |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 43 打烂老婊砸走狗的碧莲
Criticism of presidential forecasts[edit]
In a series of posts in 2011 and 2012, FiveThirtyEight criticized the
forecasting methods that relied on macro-economic modeling of the electoral
outcomes.[538 80][538 81] According to Silver, models based primarily on the
macro-level performance of the economy (such as unemployment, inflation,
and the performance of the stock market), presidential approval ratings (
when an incumbent is running for re-election), and the ideological
positionin... 阅读全帖 |
|
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 44 打烂老婊砸走狗的碧莲
Criticism of presidential forecasts[edit]
In a series of posts in 2011 and 2012, FiveThirtyEight criticized the
forecasting methods that relied on macro-economic modeling of the electoral
outcomes.[538 80][538 81] According to Silver, models based primarily on the
macro-level performance of the economy (such as unemployment, inflation,
and the performance of the stock market), presidential approval ratings (
when an incumbent is running for re-election), and the ideological
positionin... 阅读全帖 |
|
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 45 打烂老婊砸走狗的碧莲
Criticism of presidential forecasts[edit]
In a series of posts in 2011 and 2012, FiveThirtyEight criticized the
forecasting methods that relied on macro-economic modeling of the electoral
outcomes.[538 80][538 81] According to Silver, models based primarily on the
macro-level performance of the economy (such as unemployment, inflation,
and the performance of the stock market), presidential approval ratings (
when an incumbent is running for re-election), and the ideological
positionin... 阅读全帖 |
|
r*s
发帖数: 2555 | 46 One of the most famous failures of political polling occurred in the 1948
presidential election between Harry Truman (the democratic incumbent) and
Thomas Dewey (the republican challenger). There were also a couple of third
party candidates. The Gallup, Roper, and Crossley polls all predicted that
Dewey would defeat Truman by a significant margin, but in fact, just the
opposite happened. The results of the polls and the actual election results
(in percentages) are given in the following table:
1... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 47 报导中的这句话很对。
“Historically, presidential elections tend to attract more voters,
especially when there is not an incumbent in the White House。”
large
not
not |
|
g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 48 Donald Trump is Winning in Minnesota’s 8th – The Monster Vote
October 24, 2016 / datagooroo
A poll released today gives insight into the “Monster Vote”. It is a
congressional poll that shows a small edge for a Republican running for the
House of Representatives against a Democrat incumbent in Minnesota’s 8th
district.
The evidence in the poll for the monster vote is found by linking the poll
data with some historical information. The polls headline is that the
Republican is winning by 4 poi... 阅读全帖 |
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x****v
发帖数: 16 | 49 这是 Obama,Biden,Bernie 这星期的安排，Trump Supporters 不要老是胡乱猜测或听
信谣言。
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-election-events/index.html
President Barack Obama
Tuesday, November 1: Obama hits Columbus, Ohio, home to Ohio State
University and more young voters the Clinton campaign needs to keep the
incumbent's coalition intact.
Obama's final mission: Help Clinton close the deal
Wednesday, November 2: Then to Chapel Hill, North Carolina and the
University of North Carolina. Aga... 阅读全帖 |
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u****q
发帖数: 24345 | 50 我是按California democratic party的建议的。Local的要具体看。觉得现状不差就选
incumbent。Local measure要仔细研究。 |
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