y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 1 看具体数据，RUBIO很讨女人喜欢，46-46；
Hillary Clinton has 47 percent of Florida voters who already have cast
ballots, with 43 percent for Trump.
Independent likely voters are split with 45 percent for Clinton and 44
percent for Trump. Trump leads 86 – 7 percent among Republicans, while
Clinton takes Democrats 85 – 10 percent.
White voters back Trump 57 – 34 percent while non-white voters back
Clinton 68 – 23 percent. Women go to Clinton 50 – 42 percent, while Trump
leads among men 48 – 40 percent.
... 阅读全帖 |
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k**********i
发帖数: 8706 | 2 Wisconsin (Key Senate race): Republican Incumbent Ron Johnson Holds Off
Challenge From Democrat Russ Feingold
Last time a Wisconsin Republican won a Senate race in a presidential
election year was 1980 |
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s***l
发帖数: 2769 | 3 原文链接：
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37918303
Donald Trump has defied all expectations from the very start of his
presidential campaign more than a year ago.
Very few people thought he would actually run, then he did. They thought he
wouldn't climb in the polls, then he did. They said he wouldn't win any
primaries, then he did. They said he wouldn't win the Republican nomination,
then he did.
Finally, they said there was no way he could compete for, let alone win, a
general election.
N... 阅读全帖 |
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f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 4 Why the Establishment Was Wrong
NEWT GINGRICH·WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2016
One of the most amazing things about Donald Trump’s historic victory was
how badly almost everyone in media and politics misread the country.
Time and again in the months before the election, the establishment
suggested I was either insincere or insane in predicting a Trump victory.
Our differences reflected two very different understandings of reality.
The establishment’s self-reassuring assumption was that the Amer... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 5 Official in West Virginia on leave after racist Obama post
Associated Press 1 hour 16 minutes ago
CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) -- A local West Virginia official said she has been
placed on leave after she made a racist post on Facebook about first lady
Michelle Obama.
Clay County Development Corp. director Pamela Ramsey Taylor made the post
following Republican Donald Trump's election as president, saying: "It will
be refreshing to have a classy, beautiful, dignified First Lady in the White
House. I'm... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 6 Breaking: Paul Ryan Wins Re-Election for Speaker
After an internal GOP election Tuesday, Rep. Paul Ryan has emerged
victorious in his re-election for Speaker of the House. Along with Ryan, Rep
. Kevin McCarthy won his re-election for Majority Leader, Rep. Cathy
McMorris Rogers won her re-election for Chair of the House Republican
Conference, and Rep. Steve Scalise won his re-election for Majority Whip.
The election was closed door and shut off from the press. There was no real
objection to any o... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 7 Former Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) would handily defeat incumbent New York
City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) if she ran as an independent in 2017,
according to a new poll.
A survey from Quinnipiac University released Wednesday found that Clinton,
running as an independent, would top de Blasio, running as a Democrat, by 49
percent to 30.
There are rumors that Clinton may be interested in running for mayor of New
York City, although her top aides have sought to tamp down that speculation
in public i... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 8 Sen. Elizabeth Warren may not have an easy path to re-election victory in
2018.
A new poll released on Monday morning shows that 46 percent of Massachusetts
voters think it’s time for someone else to have a shot at the Senate.
“It’s not a great place to start for her but she still would be the
favorite at this point,” said MassINC Polling Group president Steve Koczela
, who conducted the poll with WBUR.
Fifty-one percent of the poll's respondents have a favorable opinion of
Warren, while 37 view... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 9 Khizr Khan, the father of a Muslim American soldier killed in Iraq, said
President Trump’s expected executive actions on immigration are alarming.
Trump reportedly plans on limiting U.S. entry for refugees and others from
several Middle Eastern countries, and is expected to sign an executive order
as soon as Thursday.
“Donald Trump’s race to violate constitutional principles and fundamental
American values by targeting Muslims and immigrants is of tremendous concern
,” Khan said in a statement W... 阅读全帖 |
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A******1
发帖数: 106 | 10 We understand far too little about Muslims leaving their homes. What is
Hijrah? Obama is well educated in the Muslim religion since he studied it
while living in Indonesia. He does not want this email to be spread all over
the US because he wants us to be totally ignorant of what is really going
on with the ISIL movement. All this turmoil now makes sense. Sad, and doesn'
t bode well for us at all.
So what is a Hijrah? Hijrah is when large scale mass migrations become
invasions. What is happening... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 11 BHARARA LANDS A NEW JOB WHILE HE CONSIDERS HIS NEXT MOVE
Those hoping that the ousted U.S. attorney would run for office may have to
wait a bit longer.
Less than two weeks after Preet Bharara was unexpectedly fired, the former U
.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York has landed a new gig. In
the immediate wake of his dramatic ouster, speculation quickly turned to how
Bharara, one of the most popular figures in New York politics, might
leverage his incredible political capital. Democr... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 12 Republican leaders and high-powered donors in Utah are waging a quiet but
concerted campaign to convince 83-year-old incumbent Senator Orrin Hatch not
to seek reelection next year—and now, they may have found a successor.
Mitt Romney, the one-time presidential nominee and leading Trump critic, is
exploring a run for Hatch’s Senate seat.
According to six sources familiar with the situation, Romney has spent
recent weeks actively discussing a potential 2018 Senate bid with a range of
high-level Re... 阅读全帖 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 13 国会议员不是incumbent出来选基本起点就是党派差，和党一般新人出来就是55%左右，
主党2个月砸下去几个M就买了几千票回来，和大统领1M创造一个扫厕所的工作有异曲同
工之妙 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 14 主党要复制茶党和党09-10年连续选举胜利，这次 KS 候选人走蓝领路线是个趋势，主
党明显要走bernie路线争夺蓝领选民。
: 国会议员不是incumbent出来选基本起点就是党派差，和党一般新人出来就是55%
左右，
: 主党2个月砸下去几个M就买了几千票回来，和大统领1M创造一个扫厕所的工作有
异曲同
: 工之妙
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 15 你们这些人对美帝的选举制度一知半解阿，基本incumbent congressman屁股干净点干
一辈子没问题，连任不赢30%都不算赢 |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 16 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/23/technology/travis-kalanick-pushes-uber-
and-himself-to-the-precipice.html
Travis Kalanick’s drive to win in life has led to
a pattern of risk-taking that has at times put his
ride-hailing company on the brink of implosion.
By MIKE ISAACAPRIL 23, 2017
SAN FRANCISCO — Travis Kalanick, the chief executive of Uber, visited Apple
’s headquarters in early 2015 to meet with Timothy D. Cook, who runs the
iPhone maker. It was a session that Mr. Kalanick was dreading.
Fo... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 17 leak个trump穿浴袍，吃两勺冰激凌，骂谁，看啥电视也就算了。现在连相关国家安全
的信息都leak.
But he attacked leakers who revealed the contents of the discussion to media
outlets, saying that was the story that should be getting more attention.
“I think the real issue and what I would like to see debated more is that
our national security has been put at risk by those violating
confidentiality," he said. "I think national security is put at risk by this
leak and leaks like this."
McMaster hinted that the administration would conduct ... 阅读全帖 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 18 incumbent的众议员一般都是自动20点领先。tom price 16年仅仅得到61%选票，创下他
历年的票最低。很多评论事后认为这个区已经蓝了 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 19 你看state senate更明显了
Georgia 6th District State Senate Results: Hunter Hill Wins
BY THE NEW YORK TIMES FEB. 10, 2017, 4:39 PM ET
CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PCT.
Hunter Hill*
Republican
40,390 51.6%
Jaha Howard
Democrat
37,865 48.4
incumbent的和党赢得比这次还少，所以6区不是乱挑的，还是有大数据支持的 |
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t*******4
发帖数: 767 | 20 一个incumbent，一个刚刚参选。
恩，DEM在一个中立至浅蓝的地区花了数倍的竞选资金，只是小输4%，果然MAGA，花了
近4千万，一人发200美元也够买20万选票了吧！ |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 21 纠正一下，是深蓝地区。
共和党tom price去年只有62%的选票。
incumbent应该减去40%
所以去年GOP是22%对78%惨败了。 |
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n**m
发帖数: 463 | 22 哈哈哈，你高兴就好。晚上做个好梦
: 纠正一下，是深蓝地区。
: 共和党tom price去年只有62%的选票。
: incumbent应该减去40%
: 所以去年GOP是22%对78%惨败了。
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t*******4
发帖数: 767 | 23 报告里面有incumbant的例子你不去看。不过你逻辑这么差，我用一个事实教教你。
LA洲算你眼里最煞笔的深红了吧，结果一个mary landrieu居然当了三界senator,要不
是你家obama这么煞笔把obamacare搞的鸡飞狗跳，也不至于被哄下台去。所以议员选举
和一个洲红与蓝关系不大。总统选举才能看的出来，明白了吗？可以绝程而去了吗？ |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 24 老头核心就是40%。
Kamala Harris in dead heat with Trump in 2020 poll, but other Democrats win
handily
A new poll released Public Policy Polling projects that five different
potential Democratic 2020 challengers would defeat incumbent President
Donald Trump, but at varying margins of victory.
According to the poll:
Former Vice President Joe Biden defeats Trump 54 percent to 39 percent
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders defeats Trump 52 percent to 39 percent
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren defeats Tru... 阅读全帖 |
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n****g
发帖数: 14743 | 25 Evanston 12-year-old was arrested, put in a police wagon and taken to the
police station after officers saw him riding on the back of a bicycle that
went through a red light, the boy's father said.
"I realize and recognize we need police. But why are we arresting a 12-year
old?" said Robert Bady, whose son, Iain, 12, was arrested in downtown
Evanston after riding on the back pegs of his friend's BMX bike July 14.
ADVERTISING
Bady spoke at the Evanston City Council meeting Aug. 14, telling alderm... 阅读全帖 |
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t*****9
发帖数: 10416 | 26 incumbent + 20%, 即便真如 MSM 说的那样支持率35%，也是稳赢 ~~ |
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S*******i
发帖数: 2018 | 28 Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon is expanding his efforts to
unseat sitting Senate Republicans in primaries next year.
In the two weeks since Bannon-backed former judge Roy Moore defeated Sen.
Luther Strange in Alabama's Republican primary, Bannon has expanded his map
of targets in the 2018 midterms and ramped up his efforts to establish a
donor network to fund his slate of insurgent candidates.
Bannon has added Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer and
Utah Sen. ... 阅读全帖 |
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S*******i
发帖数: 2018 | 29 Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon is expanding his efforts to
unseat sitting Senate Republicans in primaries next year.
In the two weeks since Bannon-backed former judge Roy Moore defeated Sen.
Luther Strange in Alabama's Republican primary, Bannon has expanded his map
of targets in the 2018 midterms and ramped up his efforts to establish a
donor network to fund his slate of insurgent candidates.
Bannon has added Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer and
Utah Sen. ... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 30 实际上，他估计2020年大选，老头能拿到400个选举人票。米犹媒体造谣被抓现行！
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/bannon-electoral-votes-trump/2017/10/14/id
/819710/
President Donald Trump will win reelection with 400 electoral votes in 2020,
his former chief strategist Steve Bannon declared Saturday in a reversal of
reports claiming that he'd said the president had just a 30 percent chance
of finishing out his first term.
"The populist, nationalist, conservative revolt that's going on, that drove
Donald Trump to victory, that drove ... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 31 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: Lobsterparty (龙虾党), 信区: Military
标 题: 川粉必看！川总的登基周年大礼包
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Nov 18 14:29:40 2017, 美东)
转载自微信公众号“MIT吐槽君”
11月8日，是一个值得纪念的日子，2016年的11月8日，政治素人、电视选秀节目制作人
、房地产商、高尔夫球爱好者：Dotard, 哦不，唐纳德-川普 以三百万 popular vote
落后但是304:227选举人票胜出的奇怪比分，赢得了总统大选，于此同时， GOP以排山
倒海之势赢得了两院，开启了保守势力统治美国的新篇章。（担心接下来的文字你们受
不了，这一段吐槽君帮川总粉丝们重温一下去年胜利盛况 ）
问题来了，美国的保守势力抬头，社会风向是全面右转还是仅仅向右快闪，需要由时间
来证明。
一年之后的2017年11月7日，为了庆祝川总登基这么一个大日子，美国几个州给川总送
上了一份大礼包：
1. VA Governorship: (Dem) Ralph Northam
2. Dem wave... 阅读全帖 |
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t*****9
发帖数: 10416 | 33 incumbent automatically gain 20%, 加上基本盘，稳赢哈 ～～ |
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发帖数: 1 | 34 The Office of Superintendent of Public instruction is the primary agency
charged with overseeing K-12 public education in the state. The
superintendent of public instruction, who heads the agency, is publicly
elected every four years. Two-time incumbent Randy Dorn announced that he
would not run for re-election in 2016. The office is nonpartisan, though the
two major parties often endorse and/or support a particular candidate.
Although he was not formally affiliated with a particular political p... 阅读全帖 |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 35 Why didn’t you help to answer my question on the definition of
subgroup in the other thread, since you know how the school district works
so well?
: The Office of Superintendent of Public instruction is the
primary
agency
: charged with overseeing K-12 public education in the state. The
: superintendent of public instruction, who heads the agency, is
publicly
: elected every four years. Two-time incumbent Randy Dorn
announced that
he
: would not run for re-election in ... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 36 这想法很不成熟，还是 “新中国” 的那种 “东方红太阳升，中国出
了毛泽东” 的落
伍思维，这种人根本不适合民主制度。民主制度不是仰仗一个圣贤，而是依靠群体智慧。
当然啦，如果真出了一个圣贤，人民当然希望他一辈子当总统。所以应该是这样：当某
位总统任期满了，选票上除了所有候选人外，应该还有一个选项 "incumbent&
ldquo;。只要人民满意，他可以无限连任。 |
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j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 37 Democrat Archie Parnell wins in South Carolina despite spousal abuse
accusations in divorce records
A Democratic candidate for a U.S. House seat in South Carolina won the party
’s primary Tuesday despite accusations that he violently abused his wife
decades ago.
Archie Parnell received enough votes to secure his party’s nomination and
will face off in November's general election against incumbent U.S. Rep.
Ralph Norman – a Republican who defeated Parnell by 3 percentage points in
a special elect... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********u
发帖数: 2749 | 38 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: sgrastar (人马座A星), 信区: Military
标 题: CNBC：疮破再打贸易战会丢掉6个关键州
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Sep 7 14:51:02 2018, 美东)
伊利诺伊，印第安纳，密苏里，宾西法你啊，田纳西和德克萨斯。
Trump risks midterm voter backlash for GOP if he expands China trade war, as
tariffs are unpopular in six key states
President Donald Trump is considering even more tariffs on Chinese goods in
an expanding trade conflict.
It's a politically risky move, as voters in six key midterm states have not
gotten behind the trade barriers.
Repu... 阅读全帖 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 39 希望如此
但是红州民主党incumbent投Kav的前提是共和党能有50票 ...
Murkowski的最大问题是阿拉斯加的原住民现在在push她投反对票, 而原住民占阿拉斯
加20%的人口，而且在2010年Murkowski是在输掉共和党初选的情况下 因为原住民的大
力支持才用write in的方式赢得最后选举的 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 40 其实McConnell是可以搞一个不管死活的floor vote的 民主党就是要在中期之前避免投
票 但如果McConnell豁出去了 就搞个投票 民主党的几个今年选举的红州incumbent投
反对票就等于自动放弃选举了 同理对于Collins |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 41 Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Democratic Leader Charles
Schumer (N.Y.) have struck a deal to vote on a package of 15 judges and
recess the Senate until the Nov. 6 election.
All of the nominees, including three circuit court nominees, are expected to
pass despite opposition from liberal groups that fought an all-out-battle
to block Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh earlier this month.
The development is welcome news for vulnerable incumbents in tough races
eager to get ba... 阅读全帖 |
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L*********4
发帖数: 883 | 42 看了一下early voting的结果。有两个公认比较准的early voting分析网站：
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog
http://steveschale.com/
两边看下来基本感觉Dems的情况是比2016稍好但还是比较有限。Florida目前GOP的优势
是3%,显著低于2014年的8%，但高于2016年的0.5%。虽然这里是比2016年好，但是有一
个关键的因素是今年independent较为偏民主党，按照我从各个poll里总结的结果基本
上是在55% - 45% 到 57% - 43%之间。但independent经常投支持第三党的废票，所以
大概可以估计independent是49% Dem - 40% GOP左右，可能误差到48% - 40%或者49%-
41%或者50%-40%。而2016年的independent是42% Clinton - 48% Trump。这样里外里差
出来大概14-16个点。这14-16个点在Florida刚好可以把目前GOP比2016年的优势... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 43 还很支持 trump，声称自己不是 crazy 民主党！
或者其实就是演戏？
McCaskill swipes at Warren, Sanders when asked about 'crazy Democrats'
Speaking exclusively to Fox News on Monday, vulnerable incumbent Missouri
Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill dropped the names of two high-profile
colleagues, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, when asked to identify the
"crazy Democrats" from whom her campaign has distanced itself in recent days
. McCaskill said she wouldn't call the two "crazy," but noted they had
disagreements with ea... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 44 一般参议员连任的概率都很大。特别2任以上的参议员要被defeat,需要很大的气力。这
些州都不是open seat.都是已有参议员在连任。要想选下incumbent, 一般都是需要
wave election的。比如2006，2010，2014。 |
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s*********r
发帖数: 9493 | 47 BETO领先20万票！加油！
O'Rourke
53.1%
1,865,120
Cruz
Incumbent
46.2%
1,621,388 |
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k******0
发帖数: 2438 | 48 对着可撸之的头像撸吧，他已经领先了。
：BETO领先20万票！加油！
：O'Rourke
：53.1%
：1,865,120
：Cruz
：Incumbent
...... |
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f*****9
发帖数: 6768 | 49 Beto能把你白鼻毛染黑？
: BETO领先20万票！加油！
: O'Rourke
: 53.1%
: 1,865,120
: Cruz
: Incumbent
: 46.2%
: 1,621,388
|
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L*********4
发帖数: 883 | 50 我说的是作为incumbent选举。仅限于说这次选举和与之相关的大嘴问题，没有讨论经
济。我对川总的执政是佩服的。我大概是愿意支持Trumpism without Trump的。 |
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