f*********d
发帖数: 3358 | 1 可惜还没有命名
China launched its first aircraft carrier for a maiden run on Wednesday, a
step likely to boost patriotic pride at home and jitters abroad about
Beijing's naval ambitions.
The long-awaited debut of the vessel, a refitted former Soviet craft, marked
a step forward in China's long-term plan to build a carrier force that can
project power into the Asian region, where seas are spanned by busy shipping
lanes and thorny territorial disputes.
"Its symbolic significance outweighs its practical s... 阅读全帖 |
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y****e
发帖数: 23939 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 Texas 讨论区 】
发信人: nogard (无卫士), 信区: Texas
标 题: 我已报案，请删除所有所谓飞哥的帖，勿再在版上泄露我个人信息br />
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 11 22:06:44 2011, 美东)
发信人: everflying (展翅飞翔), 信区: Dreamer
标 题: 我已报案，请删除所有所谓飞哥的帖，勿再在版上泄露我个人信息，否则法庭上见
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 11 21:36:23 2011, 美东)
我已报案，请删除所有所谓飞哥的帖，勿再在版上泄露我个人信息。
否则法庭上见
Your Online Police Report 2011-1808896 Has Been Approved
Your online report has been approved and the permanent case number is 2011-
1808896.
Please note in the attached report that sensitive informa... 阅读全帖 |
|
w********l
发帖数: 11447 | 3 呵呵，你还知道带参的和不带参的两种检验阿。还行。
我说的不是忽悠人的词汇，这些都是基础。我既然问你原理，当然希望你给出点解释。
我并没有跟你说得更多，你那个z-test只是最简单的wald test. 要说到复杂还可以复
杂的多。
你就算认为likelihood麻烦点，至少也要通过random variable来解释你的z-test. 可
惜你没有，却选择最业余的1,2,3。 来解释。我还没有难为你，有没有考虑同一场地比
赛的相关性问题。其实，你那个测试做得非常不严谨。
如果，你学过统计，应该知道我跟你讨论的是最基础的东西，并没有忽悠人的词汇。当
然，你要这么认为，那就说明你很业余。有的英文词语是我不知道中文是啥。你既然学
过统计应该知道，英文术语经常更直观明了。当然，业余水平的，就很难说了
还有，别动不动摆出一个居高临下的姿态，让别人别啥啥啥的。你统计在我看来就是一
般般，也就是个半瓶子醋的水平。 |
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i***z
发帖数: 7508 | 4 One of the more common complaints I've heard about Firefox over the last few
years has been about its gluttonous use of system RAM. Firefox 7, released
today, addresses this issue head on, with a MemShrink project that reduces
memory use by 20 to 50 percent, according to Mozilla, the non-profit
organization that develops Firefox. This results in both faster performance
and a lower likelihood of crashing. Version 7 also adds some new developer
tools, more graphics hardware acceleration, and an op... 阅读全帖 |
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d****o
发帖数: 32610 | 5 技术角度来说，这19个人又不是iid
claimed |
|
|
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d****o
发帖数: 32610 | 8 不独立啊
前面的人的行为肯定是对后面的人有影响的 |
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z*******h
发帖数: 346 | 9 Not sure about the confidence interval. Can you calculate it? |
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l******t
发帖数: 55733 | 10
it will kill some of my brain cells and doesnt deserve it at all. Let it be. |
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z*******h
发帖数: 346 | 11 In fact, you can't calculate it unless you make some assumptions about the
geographical distribution of good people in China. But since this is not an
isolated event, my hunch is that the CI will by no means include 1/10000.
that is all I want to say.
be. |
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I********l
发帖数: 8702 | 12 First of all, this accident is NOT a random sample as you presume. Secondly,
the sample size of 19 people is simply way too low to predict a population
as large as 1.4 billion.
You may randomly select a reasonable number of cases from a pool of total
accidents in mainland in a given year and see if immoral behavior is
significantly present in these cases.
However, Even if the result is significant, we can only cautiously conclude
that the vehicle drivers in the situation of accident are more lik... 阅读全帖 |
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I********e
发帖数: 1843 | 13 1肯定是高估了，具体百分比可以参考这个版上小将和五毛的并集占全部注册用户的比
例。
claimed |
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h*****s
发帖数: 228 | 14 小右的观点是不救人是普世有道理，小左认为是30年该开造成道德败坏 |
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w********l
发帖数: 11447 | 15 晕死，先不说别的，你这也不是binomial啊，至少也是个negative binomial. |
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r********n
发帖数: 7441 | 16 如果每个球都是独立的，除非已知的抽奖结果集合足够大，否则只是根据题目内容无法
求p(n)
当每个球在已知抽奖结果中都至少出现了一次，那么可以把每个球看作一个sample
point，可以根据抽奖结果来算频率，复杂的可以用entropy或者maximal likelihood来
算{p(n)}
为1 |
|
l*****d
发帖数: 7963 | 17 【 以下文字转载自 CanadaNews 讨论区 】
发信人: ladyred (落红万点，好运名：小旺红), 信区: CanadaNews
标 题: 卡扎菲先生去世——————生平及主要事迹
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 20 12:21:23 2011, 美东)
基本信息
奥马尔·穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲，另译：欧麦尔·穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲
[卡扎菲上校]
卡扎菲上校
（阿拉伯语معمر： القذا
في罗马语：Mu'ammar al-Qadhāfī，英语：Omar Mouammer al
Gaddafi），1942年6月生于利比亚南部费赞沙漠地区苏尔特的一个柏柏尔人普通牧民家
庭。属柏柏尔人的卡扎法部落,笃信伊斯兰教。1969年9月1日，卡扎菲领导“自由军官
组织”，推翻伊德里斯王朝，建立了阿拉伯利比亚共和国（1977年3月2日，改名为阿拉
伯利比亚人民社会主义民众国），出任革命指挥委员会主席兼武装部队总司令，并晋升
为... 阅读全帖 |
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h*i
发帖数: 3446 | 18 I agree that in the end of the day, bio-weapon could have the potential to determine the outcome. I would not be surprised that such weapon is under research in US.
It is just that the likelihood of success is probably very low, given the abysmal track-records of today's biology research establishment.
On the other hand, other civilizations were to develop such a weapon against the West, the possibility of success will be higher, for the core of Western civilization is probably genetically mor... 阅读全帖 |
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g*********o
发帖数: 4653 | 19 西方专家说经济要崩溃的时候，大放特放放了一张中国图。
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/next-great-depression-mit-
A renowned Australian research scientist says a study from researchers at
MIT claiming the world could suffer from a "global economic collapse" and "
precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's
resources at the current pace is still on track, nearly 40 years after it
was first produced.
The Smithsonian Magazine writes that Australian physicist Graham Turner says
"the world is ... 阅读全帖 |
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s********n
发帖数: 1540 | 20 =================================
zhu li
media lab
corporate central research
futurewei (huawei) technology
bridgewater, new jersey
phone: 908 541 3546
email: z****[email protected]
---------------------------------
About Me
Zhu Li (Bio, CV) is currently a Senior Staff Researcher and leads the Media
Analytics & Processing (MAP) Group of the Core Networks Research, FutureWei
(Huawei) Technology USA, at Bridgewater, New Jersey. He received his PhD in
Electrical & Computer Engineering from Northwestern Un... 阅读全帖 |
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H****g
发帖数: 14447 | 21 这是你引用那段话的全文。请你具体指出，你主贴里说的马克思”赞美“鸦片战争等谬
论是根据那段话”归纳“出来的？
Revolution in China and In Europe
June 14, 1853
A most profound yet fantastic speculator on the principles which govern the
movements of Humanity was wont to extol as one of the ruling secrets of
nature what he called the law of the contact of extremes. The homely proverb
that “extremes meet” was, in his view, a grand and potent truth in every
sphere of life; an axiom with which the philosopher could as little dispense
as the astronomer with... 阅读全帖 |
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D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 22 The likelihood of DEM losing Senate majority is smaller than that of GOP
losing its House majority.
There exists a finite possibility that DEM even regains majority in the
House while retaining its Senate majority (not necessarily expanding it,
though). |
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Y****g
发帖数: 662 | 23 警察因口头威胁被迫辞职
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/22/cop-quits-assassinate-
Cop Quits After Saying He Would Volunteer To Assassinate Obama
11/22/12 07:21 AM ET EST
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Obama, Obama Assassination Cop, Obama Assassination Police Officer, Police
Officer Obama Assassination, Crime News
Navy Yeoman ... 阅读全帖 |
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c****g
发帖数: 37081 | 24 http://news.yahoo.com/man-killed-2-firemen-left-note-killing-pl
WEBSTER, N.Y. (AP) — The ex-con who lured firefighters to their deaths in a
blaze of gunfire left a rambling typewritten note saying he wanted to burn
down the neighborhood and "do what I like doing best, killing people,"
police said Tuesday.
Police Chief Gerald Pickering said 62-year-old William Spengler, who served
17 years in prison for the 1980 hammer slaying of his grandmother, armed
himself with a revolver, a shotgun and a mil... 阅读全帖 |
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Y****g
发帖数: 662 | 25 美国政府只听好话, 谎言好话, 听不了真话和实话
Read below:
http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/05/business/sp-lawsuit-department-of
S&P faces lawsuit over high credit ratings: Why now?
By Ramy Inocencio and Kevin Voigt, for CNN
updated 12:34 AM EST, Tue February 5, 2013
A sign for Standard & Poor's rating agency stands in front of the company
headquarters in New York, September 18, 2012.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
U.S. government lawsuit against S&P would be first for a credit ratings
agency
S&P parent company, McGraw-Hill, plunged 13.... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 26 八马的白女朋友前一阵出来说，八马自传里和她经历的种族激辩和各个心潮澎湃的情节
都是编的。
结果八马亮出自传出版的一个fine print，说书里人物可能是composite figure，八马
可以把经历过的事情汇集到一个人身上写，所以O8仍然伟大光荣正确。
傅萍应该再版时加上这么一条小字，书里自己的经历可以是身边人的或是中国人可能受
到的迫害，in President Obama's style。
Obama: 'New York girlfriend' was composite
By DYLAN BYERS |
5/2/12 12:08 PM EDT
Editors’ Note: The original version of this post inaccurately stated that
Barack Obama had not revealed creating composite characters in his book, “
Dreams from My Father.” An update to the post was added that Obama h... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******n
发帖数: 1553 | 27 请问Likelihood function form 是什么？ |
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d*****u
发帖数: 17243 | 28 不管是likelihood， prior，还是normalization term都无从说起 |
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t**********8
发帖数: 1683 | 29 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: lczlcz (lcz), 信区: USANews
标 题: 欧元区失业率达到创纪录的12.1%
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 1 16:20:01 2013, 美东)
Governments across the eurozone have again been left counting the human cost
of the financial crisis after news that unemployment in the currency bloc
reached a record high, driven by soaring youth joblessness.
Eurozone unemployment rose to 12.1% for March, an all-time high, according
to Eurostat, the statistics office of the European Union. In the wider EU
area of 27 coun... 阅读全帖 |
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d**j
发帖数: 240 | 30 怎么样，家宝总理从这些小事儿入手？
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/905044
Cambridge University has come under pressure to reveal the identity of a
mysterious Chinese foundation that is donating £3.7 million for a new
professorship, amid fears that the pressure to raise funds may have exposed
it to backdoor diplomacy by Beijing.
The Daily Telegraph has learned that a number of Cambridge teachers object
to the substantial gift from the Chong Hua Foundation, which is set to
create a ne... 阅读全帖 |
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o*******n
发帖数: 407 | 31 http://eng.suda.edu.cn/article/20130721114559587.shtml
July 21, 2013
Ms. Ping Fu,
We are writing you in response to the bizarre tales you told, in Bend, Not
Break, of your undergraduate days with us in Soochow University （Suzhou
University in pinyin）.
As firmly stated in our 1st and 2nd Statements, the many falsehoods you
fashioned into the memoir, as well as a team of discrepancies in the many
clarifications you offered and/or were asked to provide to media, have both
unjustifiably defamed Sooc... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 33 China’s Massive Eugenics Project To Choose High-IQ Embryos
by JacobSloan on February 22, 2013 in News
Via Edge.org, NYU evolutionary psychologist Geoffrey Miller on how the
biggest eugenics push in history is just unfolding, which he feels will
dramatically shape the future:
China has been running the world’s largest and most successful eugenics
program for more than thirty years, driving China’s ever-faster rise as the
global superpower. When I learned about Chinese eugenics this summer, I was
... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 34 http://washington.cbslocal.com/2014/01/08/study-racism-may-acce
Study: Racism May Accelerate Aging In African-American Men
COLLEGE PARK, Md. (CBSDC) – Accelerated aging and a greater likelihood of
suffering from an age-related illness at a younger age are two consequences
being linked to African-American men who have experienced high-levels of
racism throughout their lives.
“We examined a biomarker of systemic aging, known as leukocyte telomere
length,” Dr. David H. Chae, assistant professor of ... 阅读全帖 |
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M**Q
发帖数: 477 | 35 "There is probably a significant likelihood" that Malaysia Airlines Flight
370 is on the bottom of the Indian Ocean, a senior U.S. official told CNN's
Barbara Starr Thursday, citing information Malaysia has shared with the
United States. Analysts from U.S. intelligence, the Federal Aviation
Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board have concluded
that pings sent to a satellite hours after the plane's last transponder
signal likely came from the missing aircraft, the official sa... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 36 http://www.forbes.com/sites/kylesmith/2014/03/25/5-reasons-appl
1. Regression to the mean. Apple came up with the iPod in 2001, the iPhone
in 2007 and the iPad in 2010, in each case not only creating a blockbuster
new product but a whole new category. Like a football quarterback who throws
for 400 yards a game for a month, Apple is overdue for a slump. “Apple was
essentially in violation of business physics for an extremely long time,”
says Harvard management professor Gautam Mukunda in the boo... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******g
发帖数: 689 | 37 http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20140416/BRF102133.asp
专栏昨日刊文说，美国《新乡时报》4月14日的报道称，使用简陋搜索设备的中国海巡
01轮宣布自己在印度洋侦测到了疑似由马航失联班机发出的信号，但英国配备精密侦测
设备的船只前往复查后，却未能侦测到任何信号。报道认为，中国的这一举动可能对澳
大利亚同时进行的搜寻工作构成了干扰，后者同样配备高科技侦测设备的“海盾”轮发
现了四个疑似由马航空失联客机发出的信号。
《新乡时报》的这篇报道说，4月5日，明显是在搜索行动协调员指定的区域之外进行搜
寻的中国海巡01轮宣布，自己在印度洋侦测到了疑似由马航失联班机发出的信号。
那么，这个中国在“指定区域之外”发现疑似信号的地方具体位于何处呢？据人民网4
月7日的报道说，当日，澳大利亚联合协调中心总负责人休斯顿召开新闻发布会说，海
巡01轮和“海盾”轮两船的搜索区域均在失联飞机与卫星“握手”的地点弧线上，海巡
01轮5日探测到马航失联飞机疑似信号的位置位于澳大利亚珀斯西北约1550公里处，而
“海盾”轮6日探测到疑似信号的区域则位于珀斯西北约1680公里处，... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 38 MEMORANDUM FOR: Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Ukraine and NATO
We the undersigned are longtime veterans of U.S. intelligence. We take the
unusual step of writing this open letter to you to ensure that you have an
opportunity to be briefed on our views prior to the NATO summit on September
4-5.
You need to know, for example, that accusations of a major Russian "invasion
" of Ukraine appear not to be supported by reliable i... 阅读全帖 |
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P*****0
发帖数: 34 | 39 Know the differences between apples & oranges
The Folly of a Professor
A Univ. of Calf., Riverside professor of public policy and political
science, KARTHICK RAMAKRISHNAN, did a poll asking a question about
affirmative action (AA):
"Do you favor or oppose affirmative action programs designed to help
blacks, women and other minorities get better jobs and education?"
He found 69% AsAms supporting AA. Even among Chinese Ams. 60% are in
support.
This professor THEREBY concluded that "T... 阅读全帖 |
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u*****n
发帖数: 3277 | 40 好像挺对的。
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21607830-mo
The more people are exposed to socialism, the worse they behave
Jul 19th 2014 | From the print edition
“UNDER capitalism”, ran the old Soviet-era joke, “man exploits man. Under
communism it is just the opposite.” In fact new research suggests that the
Soviet system inspired not just sarcasm but cheating too: in East Germany,
at least, communism appears to have inculcated moral laxity.
Lars Hornuf of the University of Munich a... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 41 The growing inequality in the US is indeed rapidly making US into a "
developing" country. Until the political system ceases to be an oligarchy
controlled by corporations and the wealthy, it is in all likelihood going to
stay that way.
The homeless panhandle on every busy street. It is indeed like living in a
Charles Dickens novel. |
|
t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 42 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/05/china-panicking
Sunday 5 July 2015 08.59 BST
As with many things in China, the numbers are staggering. The two main
indices - the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite - had risen
about 150% in the 12 months to mid-June. In terms of market value, that was
a gain of about $6.5tn. Since then, the market has tumbled almost 30% - call
it a $2tn plunge.
What's the big deal? Shares never go up in a straight line and anybody who
bought a year ago ... 阅读全帖 |
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h******t
发帖数: 872 | 43 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-brink-major-milestone-conse
"If the yuan goes in the basket, then the likelihood is that the Chinese
would prefer a gradual depreciation of their currency against the US dollar,
" she said. "And this is good news because it allows time for the real
income gains in the West to be spent and potentially for us to get into the
positive scenario."
But if the yuan is not allowed in the SDR, Choyleva said:
"The Chinese leadership is not going to wait another five yea... 阅读全帖 |
|
C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 44 Norway disarms its police officers
Oslo (AFP) - Norway's police, who have been authorised to carry firearms for
the past year due to a heightened threat of Islamist attacks, will be
unarmed again now that the threat level has been lowered, police said Friday.
National police chief Odd Reidar Humlegard told reporters the measure would
take effect on November 17.
The country's 6,000 uniformed police officers will "have to keep their
weapons locked in their patrol cars like they did previously," he... 阅读全帖 |
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a***s
发帖数: 1084 | 45 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: TFollowerII (铿锵), 信区: USANews
标 题: 杀手邻居看见但怕被人说racial profiling不敢报告
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Dec 3 13:15:24 2015, 美东)
早说过，左逼的政治正确就是白色恐怖。就是要禁你的言，禁你的思想。左逼这手杀人
不见血。
这不，邻居看见可疑。大量包裹，若干中东人来访，深夜加工，车库加工，怕被人说“
racial profiling”不敢报告。
CBS-LA interviewed one neighbor, who, with others, noticed “6 or so Middle
Eastern men” who came and went from the Farook-Malik home — once again
hinting at the likelihood that the two did not act alone, or are part of a
local terror cell that may sti... 阅读全帖 |
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c******a
发帖数: 4400 | 46 so wierd
what would she do across that bridge? it's far from UCB and no need to go.
if she missed her flight, it means she went out 11:30 on the night before
she depart for China
high likelihood: she went to say byebye to her lover, who kidnapped her,
throw her cell phone away, and drove off to the North |
|
c******a
发帖数: 4400 | 47 not necessarily
some algorithms have stochastic process when it needs to choose between
comparable likelihoods |
|
l**t
发帖数: 6971 | 48 头脑清楚，大局观强。虽然我现在是江轮，当年我也没觉得江core有多厉害。事后回味
才看出来江core不容易。
从Atlantic的文章摘抄的
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-d
Obama看中东外交：
I have come to believe that, in Obama’s mind, August 30, 2013, was his
liberation day, the day he defied not only the foreign-policy establishment
and its cruise-missile playbook, but also the demands of America’s
frustrating, high-maintenance allies in the Middle East—countries, he
complains privately to friends and advisers, that seek to exploit Ame... 阅读全帖 |
|
l**t
发帖数: 6971 | 49 头脑清楚，大局观强。虽然我现在是江轮，当年我也没觉得江core有多厉害。事后回味
才看出来江core不容易。
从Atlantic的文章摘抄的
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-d
Obama看中东外交：
I have come to believe that, in Obama’s mind, August 30, 2013, was his
liberation day, the day he defied not only the foreign-policy establishment
and its cruise-missile playbook, but also the demands of America’s
frustrating, high-maintenance allies in the Middle East—countries, he
complains privately to friends and advisers, that seek to exploit Ame... 阅读全帖 |
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B********4
发帖数: 7156 | 50 贝叶斯定理是为了解释一个新的知识（P(B)判有罪）出来以后，对之前的先验概率（
P(A)老张犯罪了）应该怎样修正。
修正因子P(B|A)/P(B)也有時被稱作標准相似度（standardised likelihood），贝叶斯
定理可表述為：
后驗概率 = 標准相似度*先驗概率
基于我们都同意这样一个假设：美国冤案率还没超过50%。所以这个修正肯定是会在P(A
)基础上提高。所以P(A)（在不知道审判结果的情况下老张犯罪概率）其实非常关键，
而这个其实就是争论最大的地方。 |
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