r*****9
发帖数: 2080 | 1 和model有个毛关系，实际上是主流媒体刻意造假来压制床铺支持者的投票意愿，我百
分百肯定这是蓄意造假，先定一个poll结果，然后改model去得到他们想要的poll结果。
这种做法以前左逼就用过，而且曾经有个媒体承认很多年前刻意伪造poll结果，就为了
压制民众投票意愿
co2
92 |
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L*********4
发帖数: 883 | 2 说句公道话，除了midwest，其它地方确实还算是准了，基本都在统计范围之内。
但是midwest的polling离谱，整个midwest: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan,
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Minnesota全都离谱。比如Wisconsin到选前所有poll
没有一个说Trump赢的。
而且平均值甚至到Hillary +4 +5 +6，完全超过了统计误差允许的范围。
Midwest只有Ann Selzer保持了dignity。她的Iowa +7可能是少数几个在误差范围内的
poll。
的。 |
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L*********4
发帖数: 883 | 3 对刚才说不准的时候忘了NC。NC也是离谱了。
OH不准，OH的poll里面只有两个是Trump +6, +7.剩下的都是什么+1,+2.只有这两个可
以算准。
AZ，FL是准的。AZ的538 final average是Trump +2,实际Trump +3.5，individual
poll里面有Trump +5的好几个。
FL的final average是Hillary +0.5,实际Trump +1，individual poll里面有Clinton +
2, +1, trump +4，+3.这不能算不准，可以算是在误差范围之内。 |
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s*f
发帖数: 1071 | 4 poll没有问题，Trump比希拉里少了3，000，000票。希拉里赢得多数票。poll是符合实
际情况的：多数美国人支持希拉里。 |
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h***e
发帖数: 2823 | 5 我也不信poll，但是我猜多数人都怕高压锅。就算黑墨都哆嗦。
: 说句实话，所有的poll我都不信，不管是不是对trump利好。等18年中期选举，
如果共
: 和党还掌控两院，我才开始信poll.
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s******n
发帖数: 6806 | 7 别再站位了,也别给别人贴标签了。
现在谈的是poll，公认的都是national poll才准，
national poll对应的就是popular vote,只能这么比。
再说了，这是右逼先提出这个问题的，要不然谁提啊，
每天那么多好玩的新闻，谁关心这个啊。
离。 |
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s******n
发帖数: 6806 | 8 再说state polls, 选前一周的state polls，
rust belt 那三个州就是1个百分点左右，
不过是1个月前pussygate后离谱的poll让左派忽视了这个问题而已。 |
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s*f
发帖数: 1071 | 9 因为美国主流poll，随机取样，真实反映民意。
看看11月6号 7号poll
Bloomberg
Clinton 44%
Trump 41%
+3%
CBS
Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
+4%
路透社
Clinton 42%
Trump 39%
+4%
ABC
Clinton 47%
Trump 43%
+4%
最后Clinton赢了 +2.1%，
主流poll容许误差3%，都准确预测了希拉里赢得300万多数票。 |
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w******7
发帖数: 445 | 10 目前大部分poll都表明美国民众支持大赦非移。
然而，各种移民新闻下面的网友评论，却几乎全部是骂声一片。
poll是机构做的，他们的政治倾向如何，怎么选的sample外界无从得知。
但至少我知道那些阅读新闻的网友们不是机构选出来的。如果一定要拿民意说事，我更
愿意相信那些草根网友的评论，而不是xx机构cook出来的poll。
不同意的欢迎辩论。 |
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s****e
发帖数: 137 | 11 Poll Worker火热招募中：
如果您想对美国的政治运作稍微有所了解，同时又能得到一点报酬，请考虑做今年两次
选举的poll worker（中、英文双语，帮助华裔选民投票的）。如有兴趣，请给sdaa4e@
gmail.com发邮件。
如果您的家庭里面有高中生，那么参加这个工作属于community service，跟学校报备
是不计算为absent的，如果这位高中生还在修political science方面的AP课程，那么
参加这个工作，不仅能拿到报酬，还可以拿到一个special的credit。请与sdaa4e@
gmail.com 或者Edwin Lin (e*******[email protected])直接联系报名参加。因为需
要预先做两个小时的培训工作，请尽快报名，以便选民登记处统一给所有poll worker
做培训工作。
您必须要是公民或者持有绿卡才可以报名从事这项工作。更多Q&A请见选民登记处的正
式回复。
简介：
选民登记处并不是一个由选民选举产生官员的组织，而是隶属于郡（County）政府下的
一个办公机构，属于郡里提供的Community Service之... 阅读全帖 |
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s****e
发帖数: 137 | 12 Dear Frank,
您好！謝謝您所提出的問題。
1． Poll Worker 的job description: 投票站工作人員一般的主要任務是要協助選民
投票，而雙語的投票站工作人員是要協助一些有語言服務需要的選民。投票站工作人員
的職位歸分爲以下類別：
i. Precinct Inspector (PI): 主要的選務官，負責聯絡投票站業主和其他隊員，set
up所負責的投票站以及提前到所規定的地方pick up選舉所需的用品/材料。
ii. Touchscreen Inspector (TI): 負責在選舉日前pick up選舉用品/材料、set up
touchscreen (觸屏投票)、投票站等。
iii. Assistant Inspector (AI): 負責在選舉日前pick up 選舉用品/材料、set up
投票站、協助選民投票、關閉投票站等。（有可能要填補PI或TI的空缺）
iv. Clerk: 負責一般任務，幫忙set up投票站、協助選民投票、關閉投票站等。
v. Standby: 後備投票站工作人員， 有可能要填補PI或TI的空缺。
有關投票站工作人員的... 阅读全帖 |
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i*******h
发帖数: 216 | 13 今天Manager's Manager开了个全组大会, 是研究Poll的Result,结果就像针对我的批斗
大会,每逢有Negative的结果,老板就点我的名,问我有什么评论,该如何改正.
最要命的,是我在Diversity这项给了个负面评价,而我们组9个人有7个是印度人,另外一
个香港97难民是我的直接经理从原来的组带过来的,关系非常密切.这11%的负面评价无
疑就是我了.
我发誓相当一部分负面评价根本不是我给的,但老板估计认为就是我了,就算是我给的我
也是有根据的. 而且Diversity的问题,印度人偏袒自己人我想多数中国人都有经历的,
而且我们组原来的中国大牛就是因为这个而离开的.
所以这个Poll根本就不是匿名的!
问问大家,这个距离年终reivew没多远的时候我该怎么办呢?
最后,大家以后做什么匿名的poll千万要多个心眼. |
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m*********s
发帖数: 354 | 14 OK, Here is mine interpretion about the charges of rules:
1. Foo is charged for US$4.00 since 2 new players received from trade.
2. Foo is charged for 400 coins since 2 new players received from trade.
3. Monster is charged for US$2.00 since 1 new player received from trade.
4. Monster is charged for 200 coins since 1 new player received from trade.
Please ignore the poll about charges. I will remove that poll.
For the poll about trade:
1. If there are 6 "no" votes, or 51% of voters cast "no" vo |
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t*****i
发帖数: 668 | 15 The two polls that matter -- the USA Today and Harris -- rewarded Auburn for
beating a now 3-5 Ole Miss team ahead of Boise State. The Broncos beat
Louisiana
Tech, who by the way is also now 3-5, but at least La. Tech beat their FCS
opponent in Grambling State. Ole Miss lost to Jacksonville State in week one
, so
in some strange universe that means Auburn is better then Boise?
Or, it was just an excuse to move up Auburn since they beat Ole Miss by a
single
point more then Boise State did. Auburn... 阅读全帖 |
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h*******j
发帖数: 50 | 16 Auburn picks up first-place votes, closes gap on Oregon in Harris
Interactive poll
The Tigers, who won the SEC West with a 49-31 win over Georgia on Saturday,
went from seven
first-place votes last week to 35 first-place votes Sunday. Auburn is still
No. 2 to Oregon's No.
1.
Oregon has 65 first-place votes and 2,788 points in the Harris scoring
system. Auburn is second
with 35 first-place votes with 2,733 points.
Last week, Oregon had 93 first-place vote and Auburn had seven.
Auburn also gained... 阅读全帖 |
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z*****a
发帖数: 3809 | 17 USC is still under NCAA sanctions and is not eligible for ranking in the
Coaches poll. USC could be ranked by the AP poll though, since the AP poll
doesn't care about NCAA sanctions. |
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M***y
发帖数: 2252 | 18 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
USA TODAY TOP 25 COACHES’ POLL — Sept. 18, 2011
The Top 25 football coaches poll, with team’s records in parentheses, total
points based on 25 points for first place through one point for 25th,
ranking in last week’s poll and first-place votes received:
Last week’s First-place
Rank School (record) Points rank votes
1. Oklahoma (2-0) 1463 1 50
2. Alabama (3-0) 1402 2 4
3. LSU (3-0) 1373 3 5
4. Boise State (2-0) 1212 4 0
5. Stanford (3-0) 1208 6 0
6. Oklahoma State (3-0) 1126... 阅读全帖 |
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g*********d
发帖数: 8125 | 19 any poll put michigan top 15 is no brainer poll. |
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z*****a
发帖数: 3809 | 20 Last week, OkSt was already #3 in AP poll but was #5 in both Harris and
Coaches polls. Only the Harris and Coaches polls count in the BCS.
Also, it's not guaranteed that OkSt will have better computer ranking than
Alabama. The new Sagarin rankings still have Alabama ahead of OkSt.
I think it'll be extremely close no matter what the outcome. |
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j***4
发帖数: 3119 | 21 投票规则：
1. 一人一票，新老ID一律欢迎
2. Div1 Bowl Division Teams 从No.1 到No.25。如有缺漏，选票作废
3. 截止时间：2012年6月30日
开奖规则：
1. 以coach preseason poll为参照（大约在8月第一周. 没用AP是因为出台太晚）
2. 你所列的每只球队（在选票中的排名 - 在coach poll中的排名）的绝对值做为这支
球队的得分，如果在Coach poll里没有排名，都以26计算。
3. 25支球队的得分总和就是最后得分，得分越小名次越前。
4. Tie breaker: 每张选票前10名球队得分
这几个月光拿工资没干啥，我个人出1000Wb赞助，版面能不能出1000？
奖金：第一名1000， 第二500，第三250, 第四150，第五100
选票template:
NCAAF Rankings
RK TEAM
1 Alabama
2 LSU
3 Oklahoma State
4 Oregon
5 Arkansas
6 USC
7 Stanford ... 阅读全帖 |
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s****y
发帖数: 958 | 22 1 Florida State Seminoles 1-0 1541 57 NR
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 1-0 1432 NR
再次证明了preseason poll是非常bias的，而且对以后的poll有很大的影响。
第一次poll应该放在第四周以后 |
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Y******e
发帖数: 20256 | 23 教练poll就是自己一堆人在YY。而且还不是全部教练。这个poll出来一点皮意义都没有
。大家都忙，现在夏天fall camp快要开始了连其他球队roster都不清楚，比AP poll还
没说服力。当然像Freeze这种老是要和family在一起，背后一堆bagman的，看的别球队
录像可能比较多除外。 |
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d**w
发帖数: 14889 | 24 the poll is where you go to vote.
or the counting of votes cast is a poll.
反正最终vote的什么什么被称为poll. |
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s**a
发帖数: 8648 | 25 太多可能原因了吧，不做调查不知道的。
poll永远是在一个时间静态点作出的调查，但是到投票前选民的心态是不断变化的。这
次选举变数很多，民主党三个人都有机会。一个假设：正是因为poll显示希拉里落后，
激励了那些本来不想参与投票的人（支持希拉里）的人参与投票。可能还有人觉得
obama和希拉里差不多，如果obama再赢了new hampshire，希拉里可能没戏了，还不如
先支持希拉里，让好戏撑到后面。
今天早上npr采访一个女选民，就说，本来觉得两人差不多，不想投票了。后来意识到
希拉里落后，觉得女性在这个国家的地位太收低估，一定要来投希拉里。
poll的预测相差这么远呢？ |
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p****y
发帖数: 23737 | 26 【 以下文字转载自 Vegetarianism 俱乐部 】
发信人: Paramita (波罗蜜), 信区: Vegetarianism
标 题: Today's CNN Poll: 18% out of 30372 people are vegetarian
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jul 12 20:50:07 2010, 美东)
Today's CNN Poll: Could you give up eating meat?
18% out of 30372 people voted are vegetarian. It's an amazing percentage!
http://eatocracy.cnn.com/2010/07/12/lunchtime-poll-vegetarianism/?hpt=C2
Just click "View results".
As of 5 minutes ago:
I don't consume any animal products 4.3% (1,305 votes)
I don't eat meat 14.1% |
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P******0
发帖数: 9787 | 27 The 2010 TIME 100 Poll
help This table lists the poll results as voted on by Time.com users. To
sort the data, click on any of the column headers. refresh results
Rank Name Avg. Rating Total Votes
1 Lady Gaga 87 164819
2 Yu-Na Kim 91 107553
3 Rain 95 98428
4 Conan O'Brien 92 95325
5 Adam Lambert 95 57076
6 Sachin Tendulkar 96 43890
7 Shah Rukh Khan 95 39217
8 Robert Pattinson 86 40968
9 Penny Arcade guys 92 |
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 28 More than half of Germans see Muslim immigrants as a drag on the country, a
poll published Thursday has found.
According to the Allensbach poll commissioned by the Financial Times
Deutschland, 55 percent judged that the migrant group “has cost
significantly more financially and socially than it has yielded economically
.”
Only one fifth of respondents believed Muslim immigrants were more a benefit
than a burden. The skepticism is particularly strong in the former east of
the country, where 74 pe |
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d******g
发帖数: 6966 | 29 德国也真tmd厉害。。这种poll也能搞出来。。。美国没有媒体敢搞什么少数民族是不
是drag之类的poll吧。。。虽然白猪也就是那么认为的。。哈哈。。厉害 |
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f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 30 A just released USA Today/Gallup Poll finds swing state voters are now split
48-48. comparing last poll, Obama up 4.
The battle between 538 Nate and Gallup: Nate scores 1. |
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g******o
发帖数: 4042 | 31 China, not Iran, is now America's No. 1 enemy, according to a new Gallup
poll.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/02/20/china-iran
The Chinese hold that distinction primarily because Americans have spread
their negative views across several perceived threats -- Iran (16%), North
Korea (16%), Russia (9%), Iraq (7%), Afghanistan (5%) and Syria (3%) --
while holding relatively constant in their mistrust of China (20%) over the
past few years.
More political independents cites China as t... 阅读全帖 |
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w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 32 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: willhung (黄威廉), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: 美新版的Loser疮粉现在改贴John Doe的Poll
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 4 13:08:27 2016, 美东)
In John Doe's Poll. Trump is winning everywhere. 20+ in NY and 30+ in CA |
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c****o
发帖数: 248 | 33 这个poll希拉里47对老床38。
但是这个poll里有个问题是12年你投谁了，结果是46投的obama，31投的romney。
NBC/WSJ的民调自己露馅了
他们sample的里面，给奥巴马螺母泥投票比例是46：31，而真实比例是52：48
另外川爷在螺母泥的基础上增加了22%的票数 |
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w******z
发帖数: 1872 | 36 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: wizardoz (hoho), 信区: USANews
标 题: 我记得前几次exit poll出来的比较早而且比较准确啊
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 8 16:56:44 2016, 美东)
这次连exit poll都迟迟不出，一点消息都没有， 是不是非常蹊跷啊 |
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m**c
发帖数: 7349 | 37 It is possible that “shy Trump” voters didn’t want to admit their support
to pollsters. However, there was no evidence of such a pattern during the
Republican primaries, when Mr Trump did not generally beat his polls.
And given his margin with working-class whites, it is hard to imagine that
people whose friends and neighbours mainly backed him would be ashamed to
say so themselves. A likelier cause is “non-response bias”—that working-
class whites who backed Mr Trump were particularly reluctant... 阅读全帖 |
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b******s
发帖数: 1572 | 38 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: banshees (banshees), 信区: USANews
标 题: 其实poll错的唯一原因就是对底层白人的比例搞错了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Nov 13 13:50:39 2016, 美东)
这次选举Trump能赢唯一的原因就是这个国家被没受过教育的白男给fuck了
而poll的错误，完全在于这些人的比例很难搞到
数据都不准
不存在所谓的shy Trump voter。 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3817 | 39 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: addadd1 (haha1), 信区: USANews
标 题: 笑死了人了，Gallop 现在成了美国的黄金尿 poll
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Feb 19 19:02:53 2017, 美东)
今天最新2月19的approval 是 41%了。
2月16 的approval 是 38%
从2月16到2月19，才三天， Trump的 approval rate 就增加了3 个点， 美国有3亿多
人， 3% 就是 900 多万人。
这900 多万人 三天 就改变注意了。
Gallop 自己 证明自己的民调造假。
Gallop 现在成了美国的黄金尿 poll |
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t******n
发帖数: 320 | 40 我虽然绝对不希望有种族倾向的川普连任 但是更不希望被这些poll给误导 当年希拉里
的poll数据一直领先的 结果你也看到了 不要掉以轻心 美国白右是沉默的大多数 政治
正确不让他们说心里话 他们就会用手里的选票说话
宣传战绝对不应该靠民主党简单粗暴的教条式的政治正确来强压 而是要靠润物细无声
的浸入式宣传 攻心为上 |
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v***t
发帖数: 27100 | 41 Poll这东西关键是谁做的, 受众群体决定了数据的倾向性
这是CNN的poll? |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 42 AP-GfK Poll: Likely voters ready to embrace GOP
WASHINGTON – All signs point to huge Republican victories in two weeks,
with the GOP now leading Democrats on virtually every measure in an
Associated Press-GfK poll of people likely to vote in the first major
elections of Barack Obama's presidency.
In the final survey before Election Day, likely voters say the GOP would do
a better job than Democrats on handling the economy, creating jobs and
running the government.
Most also think the country's h... 阅读全帖 |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 43 PEW POLLS 在各种POLLS里居中，说明还有比这支持率还高的。当然轮到投票时支持的
没有反对的有激情，什么时候相差5%就没问题了。 |
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h*****b
发帖数: 492 | 44 感觉从初选一开始，各大媒体的poll都是不利于hillary的。NW那一次，都说obama领先
多少个百分点，结果呢？ 接下来就是Texas，ohio，现在又到了宾州。看前面的帖子说
obama在PA领先了2个百分点，这是多大的joke啊？
其实poll就是媒体吸引民众眼球的工具，故意把两者的差距搞得很小，造成很激烈，悬
念很多的样子，其实结果一出来，有几个能像Texas那样。
我敢打赌，hillary肯定在PA赢两位数。 |
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s**********e
发帖数: 110 | 45 Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6
points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat
Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain
still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By
both measures, the race is tight.
The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his
much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now
ahead 49%-45% among |
|
s*******u
发帖数: 2249 | 46 Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has reached the 50 percent
milestone in the latest Gallup Poll, the first time he has hit the threshold
considered to be a safe number for victory.
According to Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll, the Democratic presidential
nominee now maintains an 8-point lead over Republican John McCain, 50
percent to 42 percent.
McCain, despite enjoying the media spotlight at this week’s Republican
National Convention, is “well below” his 48 percent top support level, |
|
m***o
发帖数: 995 | 47 http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN097920080909
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate John McCain has
gained huge support among white women since naming Sarah Palin as his
running mate and now leads Democrat Barack Obama among those voters,
according to a survey published on Tuesday.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll found that much of McCain's surge in the
polls since the Republican National Convention is attributable to the shift
in support among white women.
The ra |
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t***o
发帖数: 462 | 48 Suffolk poll shows McCain leading Obama in Ohio
Jessica Fargen By Jessica Fargen
Monday, September 15, 2008 - Updated 6m ago
Sen. John McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama by a slim margin in the key
battleground state of Ohio, where voters say they trust McCain more than
Obama and identify the most with hockey mom Sarah Palin, according to a
Suffolk University poll out this morning.
The GOP 搈averickticket of McCain and Alaska Gov. Palin led Democrat Obama
and his vice president pick, Delaware Sen. Jo |
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w*********8
发帖数: 3339 | 49 看来0大师应该去选地球球长，看全世界人民多么爱戴和坚决得拥护他啊，不过在美国
，老头还是越微领先大师。是不是全世界人民这次想看美国个好戏。
A new global poll of 17 countries finds a huge preference for Barack Obama
over John McCain in the presidential election in 16 of those countries. In
the 17th country -- the U.S. -- McCain was edging out Obama.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Barack Obama's proclamation last July to being a "citizen of the world" was
affirmed Monday as a new poll -- taken before the August conventions --
showed that in 16 out of 17 countries surveyed |
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a***c
发帖数: 315 | 50 No one denies Obama is ahead. But the poll may be inaccurate due to several
reasons.
+ A lot of people voted in democratic primaries. In order to vote in
democratic primaries, you had to register as democratic. Remember Rush asked
his listeners to vote for Hillary? A significant number of republicans
registered as democrats to vote in democratic primaries.
+ ACORN submitted a great deal of fake democratic registrations.
Almost every poll samples 7 - 10% more democrats than republicans. The
reaso |
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