l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 Tuesday, 20 Sep 2011 01:23 PM
By Greg MdDonald
For the first time in 32 years, Americans believe the federal government is
wasting a little more than half of every dollar it takes in — regardless of
how that money is spent, according to new Gallup poll.
The Gallup survey of 1,017 adults taken Sept. 8-11 also indicates that
Americans have little faith cost-cutting efforts to reign in the federal
budget will have much of an effect on wasteful spending.
Most of those surveyed estimated that at leas... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 2 by Jammie
Yup, sure looks like respondents to polls also thought Obama got his ass
kicked all over the stage Wednesday night.
There’s no debate about it — Mitt’s bouncing high.
After what many saw as a landslide victory during the first presidential
debate last Wednesday, Mitt Romney led President Obama by two percent in a
national poll released today, winning support from 49 percent of voters
nationwide, compared to Obama’s 47 percent.
Going into the debate, Obama led by two points,... 阅读全帖 |
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 3 Mitt Romney has overtaken President Obama in a Public Policy Polling survey
released on Tuesday.
Romney won 49 percent support from likely voters in the poll, compared to 47
percent for Obama.
It’s the first time all year Romney has led in the poll, which was
conducted on behalf of the liberal Daily Kos website and the Service
Employees International Union. Obama led 49-45 percent in the group’s
previous poll, conducted before last week’s debate. |
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j****r
发帖数: 192 | 4 And this IBD/TIPP is consistent with all polls? Keep living in your bubble
but won't be long.This poll is a garbage. See the fluctuations compared to
yesterday and the previous day. Several left wing polls are really in
desperate and freaked out mode. They don't want credibility any more. Or I
bet they will do adjustment until close the the election day. MSM and left
wing polls are in panic and trying whatever they can to drag 0bama through
the finish line. People with conscience will give them ... 阅读全帖 |
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e****M
发帖数: 280 | 5 Registered voters的Polls都会报告民主党，共和党和无党派被调查的比例，所以有没
有bias是可以看出来的。当然调查公司可以撒谎，受众也可以选择不相信。
Likely voters的polls比较麻烦，因为不同的公司或者组织会用不同的模型和公式，而
且都是商业秘密，所以没法说。这些模型也不是简单的把以前投票比例拿过来用。poll
的时候会问其他关于选举的问题，比如投票地点，或者直接问你打不打算去投票，然后
通过这些问题的回答来判断是不是likely voter。
当然Gallup模型比其他公司的会好一点。不过这不是因为其他公司不关心自己声誉，主
要是模型难建，需要nb的人和很多年的修正。
媒体也不经常自己雇人去搞polls，更多的是报道专业调查公司的结果。
大部分媒体的是不是liberal很难说，左翼的人还觉得CNN偏右呢。但是fox确实是极右
，它想不承认也没办法。Fox的选择性报道和报道没有证实的消息是出了名的。当初共
和党初选的时候，Fox可是一点机会都没给Ron Paul，即使Ron Paul是最好的候选人。
如果一个人自己是极右，但是仍认为自己是偏右，那么中... 阅读全帖 |
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a******o
发帖数: 16625 | 6 民主党花椒面多加了11%。
Final CNN poll shows surge among Independents for Romney
Examiner.com - 4 hours ago
CNN's latest poll deconstructed: Does it really show a Romney victory?
Human Events - 1 hour ago
CNN released a poll this morning taken between 11/2 and 11/4. Among likely
voters, it projects that the election is tied 49 percent Obama/49 percent
Romney (page 2). Looking at the poll by party affiliation, it also projected
that 93 percent of Democrats, 1 percent of Republicans and 37 per... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 7 Remember how, during the media's failed months-long crusade to push for gun
control, the GOP was under siege 24/7 from left-wingers like Chuck Todd, Joe
Scarborough, and Wolf Blitzer armed with polls that showed 80% wanted
background checks tightened, including a majority of Republicans?
Part of the media strategy (CNN turned their entire network over to the
partisan cause) was relentless concern-trolling. The cries that the GOP was
doomed if our 2nd Amendment rights weren't further restricted c... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 8 Warner Todd Huston October 7, 2014
A new poll of how people feel about Obama’s presidency is not good for team
Obama. It appears that most respondents feel his presidency is a failure.
A new IBD/TIPP poll which ended Friday, last week found that 53 percent
characterized Obama as a failed president. This versus only 41 percent who
rated it a success. And to show that nearly everyone has an opinion about
this president, only 6 percent said they weren’t sure.
Interestingly, and more ominously for O... 阅读全帖 |
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S*****r
发帖数: 1272 | 9 Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has overtaken businessman Donald Trump as
the top pick of Republican primary voters to be the party’s presidential
nominee, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.
The result marks the first time since June that the Journal/NBC News poll
has found a Republican other than Mr. Trump to be leading the GOP field.
Some 29% of GOP primary voters rank Mr. Carson as their top choice, while 23
% favor Mr. Trump.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz r... 阅读全帖 |
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s**p
发帖数: 518 | 11 这个poll是Mar1-3，中间有个debate，那个poll是debate结束后做的，不过那个poll的
sample size比较小。那个poll的致命地方是trend。 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 12 rrpatreilly
After the polls showed that Reagan was monumentally behind in his 1st
election, that he won by a major landslide, I never put much faith in polls.
After the polls and the election, the lefties were in sghock. They said
they knew no one who voted for Reagan. Imagine that. They surround
themselves with like minded lefties and have no clue what the Americans
really want. Just like the establishments elites of both parties and the
media today. These polls have their own agenda and to bel... 阅读全帖 |
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h****g
发帖数: 2216 | 13 你可能记错了。那个是在SC初选之前。不仅national poll上做手脚，还在SC poll上玩
花样。结果两天之后SC就选了，然后那个poll就成笑话了。
我记得还有人在这个板上为它辩护，说那个poll对wsj的读者make sense，属于没下限
笑话。
这是典型的spin.他们看大势已去就疯狂造势否认床铺初选已经不可阻挡，给反对床铺 |
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F******t
发帖数: 948 | 14 1. always vote who you like, not what polls says.
2.所谓的左逼polls对他有利的,你们床大师天天提.
一没利,就你妈左逼polls 啦,大师lose几百遍了.
都是same左逼polls
3.叔早就说过,床大师支持者就是精神分裂,对他们有利,你妈不管那个屁报发的,
连街边小报都要当成真理,对他们不利的,马上左逼报纸,bias media了. |
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C*******h
发帖数: 6095 | 15 我一直觉得这些不管什么polls，如果是假的就是为了给最后作假的结果铺垫，那么必
然要连着exit polls一起作假，否则会自相矛盾。不过唐老壮之前说自己会赢，如果不
是虚张声势的话，有可能自己做了internal polls。毕竟外边个大媒体的polls可能故
意作假抬高克鲁兹以便为读票作假造做铺垫。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.6 |
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p**j
发帖数: 7063 | 16 你到现在还在用poll指选举啊？我已经给你说了，vote才是选举，没有poll结束不结束
这么一说。exit poll，是说投票站出口的poll，exit不是结束的意思。 |
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r*********e
发帖数: 7733 | 17 这个poll 说老婊大幅领先老床。
一看最后，有12%没有registered，估计GE也没有投票权了。
这种poll 就是尼玛骗人的。媒体发展到现在，完全背离了neutral的精神，沦为猪党的
婊子了。
The poll was conducted online from June 6 to 12, surveying 10,604 adults,
including 9,355 who are registered to vote. The margin of error is plus or
minus 1.4 percentage points.
Read more:http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/poll-trump-clinton-who-is-winning-224298#ixzz4BZfzVKPW
Follow us:a class="__cf_email__" href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection" data-cfemail="c3f183b3acafaab7aaa0ac">[email... 阅读全帖 |
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b****l
发帖数: 23606 | 18 你们川粉可能要改变 一下形象，帮川普拉点中间票。
历届选举，民主党的选情都比poll要好，共和党反之。原因有几个：
1 女性倾向于选民主党，但是女性在采访的时候更喜欢说：我不知道，我还没决定。
2 黑人区的黑人倾向于选民主党，但是poll的时候，这些烂人往往poll不到。
当然现在还有足够的时间去争取更多的中间派。如果任由这个poll的情况持续到大
选，那么共和党必输无疑。 |
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l****d
发帖数: 1593 | 19 如果他们要作弊，有没有poll都会做，而且即使poll显示Trump领先却输了，美国老百
姓也不会起义，所以我选择忽视poll，多和周围同事谈谈，互通有无，交了朋友，也不
影响心情。 |
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h****g
发帖数: 2216 | 20 今年大选的许多poll必定是不要节操的了。大家预测一下poll的走向吧。
我预测poll会两极分化，方差会非常大，因为总有要脸的poll。 |
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f*********1
发帖数: 2518 | 21 媒体人自己承认poll里做假算不算？俺觉得这个事上是要看动机的，老床的粉丝做poll
，是真心想知道结果，所以竭尽全力做一个跟真实情况相符合的poll，媒体做 poll是
努力避免事实显现，所以努力做一个跟事实相反的结果。
另外你们可以不要再去跟liar浪费时间了吗？很无聊的。她没有证据的情况下骂别人不
educated。别人用事实反驳又说别人骂回去她受不了。谁还对她抱幻想谁才真该唉骂了
！ |
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发帖数: 1 | 22 10万人 poll 的结果靠谱了啵～
— ”New polls suggest Trump is getting crushed by Clinton. Do they reflect
how you are going to vote?” Some 64% told Zip they would vote for Trump,
compared to 36% for Clinton. In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Clinton leads
Trump, 42% to 36%.
— ”California, who you voting for?” Trump got 55%, compared to 45% for
Clinton. In the latest Public Policy Institute of California poll, Clinton
has a 16-point advantage over Trump, 46% to 30%.
— "What do you honestly think Trump meant b... 阅读全帖 |
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a********9
发帖数: 3813 | 24 4年前 管用的 poll 现在早就过时了。
英国退欧的 poll 把你的脸都打成猪头。
poll 看看笑话就行， 谁信谁傻逼。 牢记英国退欧的poll。 |
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a********9
发帖数: 3813 | 25 4年前 管用的 poll 现在早就过时了。
英国退欧的 poll 把你的脸都打成猪头。
poll 看看笑话就行， 谁信谁傻逼。 牢记英国退欧的poll。 |
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a********9
发帖数: 3813 | 26 英国退欧的 poll 把信poll的人的脸个个打成猪头。
英国退欧 证明 poll 已经 是过时的， 无效的工具。
poll 看看笑话就行， 谁信谁傻逼。 和投硬币一样。 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 27 Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by roughly three points in the latest USC
Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak poll.
Trump earns 45. 1 percent support in the poll, while Clinton is at 42.3
percent.
According to the poll two weeks ago, Trump was behind Clinton by three
points, 45.5 percent to 42.1 percent.
The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak survey questions 3,
000 voters each day about who they support ahead of the election on Nov. 8.
The numbers are averaged ... 阅读全帖 |
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q*c
发帖数: 9453 | 28 there is lie, big jumbo lies, and there is statistics.
媒体需要啥样的 poll? 就是永远相近的，这样才有人看。所以无论真实 poll 啥样，
无论西婆还是闯爷领先， 你只能看到接近的结果。
最后打脸打破了咋办？ 所以选举前几周 poll 就会开始拉开反映一点真实。
这就是媒体的把戏。 因为闯爷领先实在太明显，所以你们看，这个 poll 从现在开始
略有震荡，然后选举前一个月就会开始慢慢拉大。
我根本懒得看这些骗子的数据。 |
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l****e
发帖数: 609 | 32 http://www.npr.org/2016/09/28/495805190/no-donald-trump-didnt-win-post-debate-polls
Many of the results he cited came from very Trump-friendly sites, such as
Breitbart News and the Drudge Report. Some of these polls were shared by
Trump supporters on reddit, encouraging people to go vote. These were not
selective samples with any merit, and in no way could they accurately
measure whether the more than 81 million people who tuned in for the debate
thought Trump did better than Hillary Clinton.
Ev... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********k
发帖数: 5274 | 33 米犹媒体的poll就别相信了，本身就很仇视川普的米犹媒体，居然还搞poll。搞笑的是
，川普居然那么相信poll。这几天poll低，顶好的，可以让他更加重视第二次辩论。 |
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q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 34 哈哈哈。
所有的POLL，只要给钱，就给结果，一分钱一分货。
POLL都属于商业运作，必须要有主顾，也就是要有人给钱才可能继续生存。
就这么简单。
美国的POLL，有钱就是娘。
谁给的钱多，POLL就对谁有利。
这就是自由资本主义的最基本原则。 |
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m*****h
发帖数: 61 | 35 don't just read the poll number, and read about how they polled. They start
to oversample democratic and women in order to fabricate the polling results
they need. Now D +1 0% for some polling. |
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m*****h
发帖数: 61 | 36 don't just read the poll number, and read about how they polled. They start
to oversample democratic and women in order to fabricate the polling results
they need. Now D +1 0% for some polling. |
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q***0
发帖数: 225 | 40 大家看到的polls都是用 likely voters，今年选举由于很多人对两个人都不满意，没
算在 likely voters 里面，两党内部都花钱买private polls来看这些人里有多少支持
自己。现在两党private polls里，希拉里领先得更多，也就是说如果turn out低，希
拉里小胜，如果turn out高，希拉里大胜。
你以为共和党那些和川普切割的人傻啊，他们看到了这些private polls，认为川普不
可能赢。川普自己也一定清楚，你看他九月份努力争取中间选民，但现在只想巩固base
，还整天鼓吹选举是 rigged，这已经完全不是想赢了，而是在准备为败选先找好接口
，在选举后接着被base拥戴 |
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l****e
发帖数: 609 | 41 当然还是承认这个poll 的，因为每个poll 都有误差和置信度。
你做一个抛硬币的实验，不会每次都是5正5反。
polling公司随机抽查人群打电话，说不定某一次共和党选民居多也可能。做专业调查
的公司，自有它的科学模型来保证它的精确性。
你如果没有证据，而想当然地认为他们是被Hillary买通的，那谁也没办法。不过大多
数人还是相信poll的。 |
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l****e
发帖数: 609 | 42 没听说过，不过方舟子有一篇关于polling的文章，我觉得他说的比你靠谱。
不如你展开说说，为什么polling公司的poll不准确。难道online polls更准确？愿意
受教 |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 44 在大选阶段，所有poll都有政治目的，并非完全依据科学。
当时逼Sanders退选呼声高，就有七家主流媒体的poll平均在53：37,希拉里领先。实际
上仅
几天后，Sanders以50：48反胜希拉里，重要选举的poll都有政治目的，看不到这点，
也太不了解poll的实际操作。 |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 45 模型可以预测结果，年轻人投票Sanders以前几个州就已显示出来，他们选择取样模型
才是关键。比如如果你把妇女投票率限定在50%，川普一定是poll赢，如果把妇女投票
选择
在70%，希拉里一定大胜，这才是关键，poll是科学，但关键在样本取舍。
: 美国是商业社会。
: 这些公司都做POLL几十年了，也预测过BUSH的胜利。
: 显然和党派没有关系了。
: 这次选举如果TRUMP获胜，就是他们依靠的以前预测选举的模型不对了。
: 人们投票的习惯有很大的改变。
: 并不是他们把POLL造成支持HILARY那么多。
: 你说的MI民主党初选，就说明问题。
: 他们从来不认为低于30岁一下的年轻人对初选有什么热情，所以统计的时
候，
: 给这部分人的比例太低，结果这部分年轻人出来投票的太多。
: 彻底搞坏了他们的模型。
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 46 有些新闻机构自己没有雇佣POLL组织。
就是看几十家POLL的结果，拿一个出来说。
新闻机构确实有倾向性，也有TRUMP领先的POLL。
领先很小，但是新闻不提而已。
但是综合来看，这么多POLL，还是HILARY领先的多。
TRUMP领先的很少，而且就是领先也是误差范围内，很小的。 |
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l********7
发帖数: 2974 | 47 认为这些polls是给她们下套子。。。
（Hillary Facebook）
Hillary Clinton shared Barbra Streisand's video.
3 hrs · 0 shares，
Top comment
Cindy Slick-Harris Vote, whether true or not true the point is don't
believe the polls. Jimmy Carter was polling 8% above Reagan and we know what
happened there. Get out to VOTE don't take it for granted. We need everyone
of you to vote!!!! Don't believe the polls get out and VOTE we cannot let
this dangerous man anywhere near the Whitehouse. |
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q***0
发帖数: 225 | 48 做poll的人实际上是设计一个模型，然后用选举结果检验这个模型。如果看到别人的
poll后中途修改，就完全没有意义了。你看LA times/USC 的poll 和别的polls差别一
直那么大也没有去修改模型 |
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发帖数: 1 | 49 又不相信poll，又看poll，我从来不讨论poll，因为我觉只有11月8号那个有意义，所
以你们该拉票拉票，该捐钱捐钱，该跟网上左逼干架就干架，尽己所能把trump送进白
宫，被poll牵着鼻子走只会伤士气 |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 50 poll 已经沦为某些人的选战工具了，今后应该办掉。如果要搞 poll 要先有资质认证
。可以请联合国四大常任理事国派观察员组团搞 poll。狗腿子们没有资格公布他们的
poll |
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