h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 1 The future is not here. Stocks, bonds, gold and commodity all rallied
together today. I will say that the future is at least a few weeks away.
By the way, as an investor, that's one of the reason you should always build
inflation into your equation. As Buffett said, inflation is not an
economical phenomenon but a political one. There is no political force to
curb inflation (or to restrict the role of the FED), so it will continue
into the future.
prices |
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B*S
发帖数: 1328 | 2 This one won't crash until we can find some currency to replace USD. I would
say everybody is printing money like crazy, and the Americans are not the
craziest. |
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h***e
发帖数: 866 | 3 所以本质还是ponzi game，市场好多的时候没事，如果大家都去取钱就完蛋了 |
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h***e
发帖数: 866 | 4 我的理解是，既然是同一个pool，leverage大的那边万一赔得很惨就把stable这边的钱
赔进去了。换句话说，如果庄家都破产了，谁来保证conservative investor的收益。
当然做得好的话，也许能保证不把conservative这边赔进去。
ponzi game不一定都是贬义词，其实很多人这么玩，只是不出问题的时候看不出来。 |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 5 Why wouldn't it be V shaped? Once you start a ponzi game, it is impossible
to stop in the middle. Just ask Madoff. |
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j**********e
发帖数: 442 | 6 Quick quiz:
Which country prints the world currency today?
Which country has sold most national debt to China?
It's a big ponzi scheme--as long as the world economy keeps going, the US
economy will prosper.Of course, if the world economy collapses, every
country is finished, including the US.We will just migrate to the Mars. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 7
You wanna buy sth from, buy gold and silver with both hands. Don't waste
one single Yuan on the overpriced real estate Ponzi bubble crap. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 8
Price of everything is decided by supply and demand including gold. When
people first discovered lots of gold in new continents e.g. South Africa
hundreds years ago, gold price did come down as the result.
Still gold is somewhat stabilized and less likely to run into that kinda
big interruptions. The current issue is mostly the huge Ponzi scheme in
the gold market where according to Jim Willie "short position for gold
at COMEX & LBMA is roughly equal to the entire earth potential of future
gold... 阅读全帖 |
|
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 10 QE III is a done deal. At best Fed will pause for a couple of months. The
ponzi scheme needs new paper money to continue. |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 11 Welcome to the digital ponzi scheme. |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 12 The difference between real money and ponzi scheme is real money has
intrinsic value. |
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s*****e
发帖数: 21415 | 13 for you, yes . but not for other people coming .
典型的ponzi scheme。凡是炒作，不论普洱茶，邮票，锦鲤，藏獒，
郁金香……哪一个不是（至少短期内）limitted supply？理论上说
和bitcoin一样，也能作为支付。（类似bit coin，需要去exchange
换现金，然后用现金支付）
你说bitcoin有privacy。要我说普洱能喝，锦鲤能看，藏獒能看家，
郁金香能摆设…… |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 14 Welcome to the digital ponzi scheme. |
|
n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 15 The difference between real money and ponzi scheme is real money has
intrinsic value. |
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s*****e
发帖数: 21415 | 16 for you, yes . but not for other people coming .
典型的ponzi scheme。凡是炒作，不论普洱茶，邮票，锦鲤，藏獒，
郁金香……哪一个不是（至少短期内）limitted supply？理论上说
和bitcoin一样，也能作为支付。（类似bit coin，需要去exchange
换现金，然后用现金支付）
你说bitcoin有privacy。要我说普洱能喝，锦鲤能看，藏獒能看家，
郁金香能摆设…… |
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g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 17 这种平空来的东西就会平空消失。people are easy to forgive.荷兰郁金香太久了大
家忘记了，
ponzi scheme会时不时的变换形式出现。 |
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h*******7
发帖数: 1481 | 18 现在大机构持有大量Cash，Deposit 到Bank，今天已经有银行开始要Charge Fee了。
Short-Term Yields Going Negative As BoNY Announces It Will Charge 13 bps Fee
On Deposits
The stunner in this morning's newsflow (the long, long overdue market
collapse which is a much needed catalyst for QE3 should not surprise anyone)
, comes out of the WSJ which has just reported that the Bank of New York has
informed institutional clients it will begin charging a fee of 13 bps on
deposits in excess of 110% of the client's monthly average. Thi... 阅读全帖 |
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y***e
发帖数: 6082 | 19 已经晚了，我们这农村信用社都从1.5降到了1。。。。。。
现在大机构持有大量Cash，Deposit 到Bank，今天已经有银行开始要Charge Fee了。
Short-Term Yields Going Negative As BoNY Announces It Will Charge 13 bps Fee
On Deposits
The stunner in this morning's newsflow (the long, long overdue market
collapse which is a much needed catalyst for QE3 should not surprise anyone)
, comes out of the WSJ which has just reported that the Bank of New York has
informed institutional clients it will begin charging a fee of 13 bps on
deposits in excess of 110% of the... 阅读全帖 |
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g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 20 她可以先跑一步，不用到顶。ponzi game的策略 |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 21 In other words, you think the ponzi scheme will continue.
place
the
housing |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 22 Not gonna happen. That'll basically destroy the equity market -- the bread-
and-butter ponzi scheme for wall street. It's against their own interests.
If it does happen for any crazy reason I can't foresee, I'll just take the
complete distribution, pay the tax due and penalty, and be done with it.
.. |
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d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 23 现在的所谓的globalization, 跟1860-1890年的列强瓜分殖民地非常的相像。
两者都在促进世界经济文化的交流的同时， 隐藏了很多深刻的危机。
金融殖民的概念已经很久了， 相关文章和书籍很多。
我只不过对19世纪的殖民地瓜分读过些书， 玩过些游戏， 一一对应过去， 确实很多
地方都有映证。
08年的金融危机， 和1929年的相似度， 不如19世纪末的铁路危机相似度更高， 都是
滚动借贷， 用还没有挣到的钱贷更多的钱扩大远景再贷更多的钱。 1929年相对来说还
是物流过剩的原因更大一些。 而次贷危机和铁路危机都是更多的来自金融赌博操作，
i.e ponzi scheme. |
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 24 In that sense, why do people refer to US dollar collapse as a doomsday
scenario?
Heck, not even US as a country collapses is a doomsday scenario.
Dynasties come and go. Human being survives.
Oh, I got it. So it's all about timing. People have faith in the ponzi
scheme and think it can continue for decades more. Good luck people. |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 25 Wanna know how fraudulent Wall St firms could go? Especially how far JPM
went to cover the Ponzi scheme up in their mega naked gold and silver
shorts? Listen to Ann Barnhardt. |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 26 最近我知道了一个做real estate hard money loan的公司（就是借钱给别人
去买foreclosure，重新装修，然后卖掉，赚利息），是个private equity，
最低投资$25k，re-investment最低$5k。保证年8%收益，历史收益年年
12%以上。我认识几个在这个PE里面已经投资了的人，可以保证历史收益
是真的。只是我不知道他们做的business是真的还是某种ponzi scheme。
我想应该没问题吧？ |
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r*******y
发帖数: 290 | 27 Money market fund yield is close to zero now
TIPS YTD return is negative
Stable Value fund is a ponzi scheme
Bond/CD have IR risks as well
Your best option is to open Barclays online savings which give 1% interest
now |
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c******z
发帖数: 1230 | 28 听完了，做了点note.
Ponzi happens mostly among close circles;
Market Timing does not work;
Trying to beat the market by actively trading
Believing indexes create average returns(actually above average)
Believing owning the S&P 500 is enough
Settleing for buy and hold
Mistaking correlation for causation
Judging outcomes in a vacuum
Looking at the stats instead of direction of the stats(earning, unemployment)
Investing without context
Underestimating the impact of asset class selection on performance
Und... 阅读全帖 |
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k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 29 consistent 4% quarterly = ponzi scheme or scam |
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p******g
发帖数: 15 | 30 back test from 1998-2013
assuming a 0% floor 12% cap IUL
year s&p s&p IUL
13-Dec 1848 30% 12%
12-Dec 1426 13% 12%
11-Dec 1258 0% 0%
10-Dec 1258 13% 12%
09-Dec 1115 23% 12%
08-Dec 903 -38% 0%
07-Dec 1468 4% 4%
06-Dec 1418 14% 12%
05-Dec 1248 3% 3%
04-Dec 1212 9% 9%
03-Dec 1112 26% 12%
02-Dec 880 -23% 0%
01-Dec 1148 -13% 0%
Dec-00 1320 -10% 0%
Dec-99 1469 20... 阅读全帖 |
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c********a
发帖数: 767 | 31 前面有同学养老帐户上了1M，祝贺！
但是我个人对美国金融市场的了解，在你有余钱的情况下，除了放满所有不用交tax的
：401K，HSA，IRA。。。。 我不认为应该再放roth这种目前没有任何tax benefit。
美国股市再来个crash，所有的养老金都泡汤50%，ponzi的不能维持性决定了一旦crash
，后果是极为惨烈的。其次类似于roth这种，先不说在60岁以前不能拿出来，投资的选
择不多，将来的tax，老了以后，还是会降很多的，我认为没有必要为了一个uncertain
的东西，去lock资金，况且管理不是很方便。
我认为如果有余钱，可以投资的几个领域是：中国，黄金和能源行业
美国股市目前在顶部的位置，未来50%的crash （5年以内）的可能性又开始增大了。 |
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c********a
发帖数: 767 | 32 这个问题很有意思，我这样的想法，是基于以下的assumptions
1. 美国政府在为social security 破产作准备，所以鼓励大家多放养老的钱，包括HSA
，也是为了将来medicare的破产
2。 美国的养老的帐户都是投资美国的金融资产，stock 和bond，如果我要买中国的A
股，或者买房子出租，买实物黄金就不行
3。美国的金融资产是基于ponzi game （世界上的金融都是），所以总有calapse的一
天，所以我认为一定的养老需要买实物的黄金
4。我还有个假定就是能够做到超过美国股市的return
假设美国的roth IRA 能够做到6%的return，其他我说的，中国，黄金，或者房子出租
能够有10%的return，这样结果就是，高下立判
X Year X ^ Year
1.060 30 5.74
1.085 30 11.56
对。 |
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c********a
发帖数: 767 | 33 这种self direct还是政府control 你资产的工具，都是trusted的account，还有可能
要收各种fee
到时候ponzi calapse，bank run的时候，全都泡汤
参见lehman
you |
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L*********h
发帖数: 2617 | 34 单收入40多万才能避开AMT吗？
这是卡着码农狠狠的吸血吗？
这个401k, 最担心是美帝政府玩的ponzi scheme啊，到老了取钱在nm狠狠吸一遍血阿，
吸退休老人的血真是没良心的啊 |
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d*********e
发帖数: 52 | 35 从大约三年前开始， 笔者偶尔听到“世界金融集团”world financial group的名字（
以下简称WFG），知道它是一家关于金融保险类别的企业， 走的是多层次市场的行销模
式。 但是由于很少身旁亲友和熟人是WFG客户， 所以也没有多加留意。
但是近一年来， WFG却如同井喷般发展， 笔者许许多多朋友， 热衷于参加各种各样金
融培训和执照培训。 详加追问， 都和WFG各个社区办事处举办的活动有关。 不少熟人
， 因为我是财经报道背景出身， 也常常咨询：“最近出了一个新公司的新产品，据说
很多功能， 退休养老保险基金全包， 您帮我们看看？”，递过来的企划书和文案，
赫然也是WFG标志。 让我感觉的这个组织的庞大和无处不在。
笔者作为经济新闻写手， 收到越来越多保险从业人士和消费人士的内部消息和抱怨。
对这个横空出世，总部位于亚特兰大郊区的JOHNS CREEK, 号称挂钩保险从业人员高达
15万人的“多层次市场推销”（multi-level marketing network）组织产生了浓厚的
兴趣和疑问。
疑问最主要集中以下几点：
1 如此庞大的金融机构， 从业人员超过美国的... 阅读全帖 |
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b********n
发帖数: 632 | 37 刚签了offer,虽然公司不大，但给的薪水还满意（$95000+$5000 relocation fee,不能
和computer science比）。漫长的找工总算暂告一段落.本来不想写的，但回想自己三年曲折
而辛苦的找工经历，不吐不快。另外在本版潜水多时，获得不少帮助，反馈给大家，希
望对辛苦找工的同行有点帮助。
本人化工专业phd,二流中部学校毕业,作了快一年的postdoc.出国前在大型石化公司的研
究院工作6年，主要从事炼油过程的开发。从2009年开始找工作，
电话面试大概有20来个，7个onsite, 到现在总共拿到了三个offer，包括postdoc.去年
一个小公司给了offer,但薪水太低，比我现在的postdoc只高了一万刀，加上地方又差还
要常年出差，就回据了，做了现在的postdoc.
2009年是经济危机后job market最差的一年，虽然有位置贴出来，不是要求公民和gree
n card holder, 就是不提供sponsorship.投出去的简历根本没有回音。曾经被一个rec
ruiter劝过无数回，不要在美国找了，回去吧。挣扎到年底，有一个小公司要面... 阅读全帖 |
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h*d
发帖数: 19309 | 38 大家有熟悉的来说说？
Tom Y. Chan, noodle entrepreneur, grandfather of Lauren Tom
Fred Chang, founder of Newegg[1]
Sam Chang, New York real estate and hotel developer
Allen Chao, founder of Watson Pharmaceuticals
Roger H. Chen, founder of Tawa Supermarket Inc. also known as 99 Ranch
Market
Pehong Chen, founder of Gain Technology and Broadvision
Perry Chen, co-founder of Kickstarter
John S. Chen - CEO of Sybase
Steve Chen, founder and CEO of Galactic Computing
Steve C... 阅读全帖 |
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M**a
发帖数: 848 | 39 Tom Y. Chan, noodle entrepreneur, grandfather of Lauren Tom
Fred Chang, founder of Newegg[1]
Sam Chang, New York real estate and hotel developer
Allen Chao, founder of Watson Pharmaceuticals
Roger H. Chen, founder of Tawa Supermarket Inc. also known as 99 Ranch
Market
Pehong Chen, founder of Gain Technology and Broadvision
Perry Chen, co-founder of Kickstarter
John S. Chen - CEO of Sybase
Steve Chen, founder and CEO of Galactic Computing
Steve Chen - co-founder of YouTube
Andrew Cherng - co-foun... 阅读全帖 |
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M**a
发帖数: 848 | 40 Tom Y. Chan, noodle entrepreneur, grandfather of Lauren Tom
Fred Chang, founder of Newegg[1]
Sam Chang, New York real estate and hotel developer
Allen Chao, founder of Watson Pharmaceuticals
Roger H. Chen, founder of Tawa Supermarket Inc. also known as 99 Ranch
Market
Pehong Chen, founder of Gain Technology and Broadvision
Perry Chen, co-founder of Kickstarter
John S. Chen - CEO of Sybase
Steve Chen, founder and CEO of Galactic Computing
Steve Chen - co-founder of YouTube
Andrew Cherng - co-foun... 阅读全帖 |
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b******n
发帖数: 851 | 41 不过， 你去看wikipedia， 那国女的老公， 倒是一比。。 本来是gay。。。 然后好
像还被accused of ponzi scheme。。。 |
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i******r
发帖数: 1175 | 42 18到36个月，撑到那天也不会再值钱了，Ponzi scheme 需要后续接盘，但是接盘价越
来越难谈
[在 sayid (老留 小武) 的大作中提到：]
:二爷看来不跳槽了。 |
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m***y
发帖数: 14763 | 43 还以为神医们出完货 这冲就完了啦 看样子 这个ponzi还得接下去 不然二手的怎
么卖给下家? |
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n*********e
发帖数: 25274 | 44 吃杏仁要买黑巧克力包着的，一袋才$2不到。
现在只有FED的头头没看到通货膨胀，比卖道夫还ponzi. |
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m***6
发帖数: 884 | 45 投资最怕的就是“总结”经验。 等把草民训练成某一种固定思维模式后， 市场就会
反过来割一道韭菜了。
我认为： 现在再去中国投资有点晚了。 什么存10年每年30%的民间融资， 完全是
PONZI scheme， 现在再去会悲剧的。 |
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a****t
发帖数: 1056 | 46 The pension here is just Ponzi Scheme. When it comes to your age, you need
to wait until 69 years old to get your retirement benefit. |
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b**k
发帖数: 11850 | 47 国内的话，到不了你退休，退休金早就全部消失了，连Ponzi都不剩。
除非你是公务员
need |
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 48 I said when I have time, I don't have time right now.
But I can give you a few key points:
1. Local government debt is now 15-25% of the banking system, which uses
higher than market-value land as the collateral.
2. Shadow banking system is growing. Bank shares of new credit issuance
dropped to 40% Q4 2012, whereas a decade ago, almost all loans are
originated from banks.
3. Trust company and wealth management products are growing at fast pace to
attract those "yield pigs". Fitch estimates that ... 阅读全帖 |
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g**i
发帖数: 159 | 49 这全是现金买卖，做flip跟ponzi没什么区别，得玩得起。等哪天没人接盘了，政府不
会bailout. |
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w*****m
发帖数: 20421 | 50 米国的同学，昨天联系上了，跟我打电话说他创业了
我说好啊，自己干点啥都比给别人打工强，问他做什么
说是搞理财，怪怪的，又不是CFA，怎么理财，说是
卖保险，卖保险不就是SALE AGENT么，就是跟杨澜老公
以前在圣路易斯骗老人买保险，卖完公司就倒闭，
就失踪的那种吧，说是有团队，越发糊涂了，给公司卖
保险卖一笔赚一比，怎么还团队，自己的客户还要给上
面的老大，这不是传销么想起了小时候玩的那种来自大
洋彼岸的游戏，一封信抄10编，然后坐等收到礼物，就是
PONZI SCAM。这个同学上学的时候就听幼稚，没毕业就跑了，
后来搞了什么学位，有正经工作，还弄这个，还创业，
就说传销给人卖保险，说国内来的需求很大，我不信，
老中一听说你要卖保险给他，转身就走人的。 |
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