C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 1 Maybe we never come out of a secular bear market.
A sucker's rally |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 2
F came out with stellar earning:
43c vs 38c, beat estimate by over 10%.
profit generating in North America (!)
relatively small market share in China, but gaining
will pay off UAW this week, 11 yrs ahead of schedule.
====================================================
F is a secular bull as i have said early this year and it continues to
deliver. a run to $20 by year end would seem very much likely. I ratcheted
up a 3month long call during the dip as anticipated. now just sit back and
watch th... 阅读全帖 |
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C****a
发帖数: 1639 | 3 in april, people are also super optimistic about US economy. But a few bad
news can completely break the fragile confidence in investors. Many
analysts are still projecting euro going down to 1.20 by the end of this
year. So, the sentiment can turn around very rapidly.
We are not in a secular bull, we are in a cyclical bear.
assured
dollar |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 4 Guest Post: Plaza Accord 2.0: Is it Coming? Is it Here?
October 15th, 2010 by Michael Krieger
If we desire respect for the law, we must first make the law respectable.
The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of
zeal, well-meaning but without understanding.
Experience teaches us to be most on our guard to protect liberty when the
government’s purposes are beneficent.
Fear of serious injury alone cannot justify oppression of free speech and
assembly. Men feared witch... 阅读全帖 |
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w********1
发帖数: 3492 | 5 i just read brcm CC, it seems unlikely it could rise:
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from James Schneider from
Goldman Sachs.
James Schneider - Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
If we look at your Q1 guidance, you talked about first of all, normal
seasonality in the Wireless business. I guess I would've thought that it
might be a little bit better than normal given the secular growth you're
seeing in smartphones and your attachment to the combo chips there. Can you
address that... 阅读全帖 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 6 如果你相信这只是整个bull market cycle的中端而不是尾端，
这么好几个cyclical+secular growth的sector里面最少也有上百个可以trade的股票了
。如果在这些里面都找不到candidate,在不那么obvious的sectors里面就可能会觉得更
找不到了。如果你觉得这一轮调整里面几个good value的candidate都找不到，那看来你可能觉得bulll market到头了。
关键是这些不obvious的sectors里面，个股的功课重要很多，跟踪的功夫也大很多。如
果是我的话，有容易做的，我还是选容易做的吧 |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 7 船运股不是不好。
但是你不能把它当secular growth/value stock来看待，因为它这行业是很cyclical的
。建议看看peter lynch的书。历史上cyclical的股票一般P/E异常低的时候都不是好现
象。表示市场对未来成长期望很差。 |
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M********4
发帖数: 1272 | 8 Warren Buffet cannot make money in the secular bear market. He was bailed
out in the 2008-2009 crash. That tells a lot about his investment IQ. |
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l*********m
发帖数: 16971 | 9 【 以下文字转载自 Daily_market_prediction 俱乐部 】
发信人: lovefreedom (freedom), 信区: Daily_market_prediction
标 题: The Bear Market Rally Has Begun
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 30 15:41:25 2011, 美东)
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/bear-market
The Bear Market Rally Has Begun
By Toby Connor Aug 30, 2011 2:40 pm
The stock market has stretched to ridiculous levels, both technically and in
terms of sentiment, which should generate an extremely convincing bear
market rally.
I've been warning bears fo... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 10 一个犹太的自白。希望你有耐心看完。
Why Are Jews Liberals?
By NORMAN PODHORETZ
One of the most extraordinary features of Barack Obama's victory over John
McCain was his capture of 78% of the Jewish vote. To be sure, there was
nothing extraordinary about the number itself. Since 1928, the average
Jewish vote for the Democrat in presidential elections has been an amazing
75%—far higher than that of any other ethno-religious group.
Yet there were reasons to think that it would be different in 2008. The main
one was ... 阅读全帖 |
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G*******m
发帖数: 16326 | 11 secular or cyclical bull market ? |
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g********5
发帖数: 10335 | 12 secular bull markets last 24 yrs enough for u make big forturn alreayaha |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 14 What happens with coal right now is mainly a reflection of China's
decelaration, that has yet to be priced in. Recent break down of the
triangle signifies a secular bear cycle that could last for Months. |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 16 I think I have made it pretty clear: a cyclical bull and a secular bear |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 17 well, if you want to judge it by inflation-adjusted data, you need
to define how to gauge the inflation.
By CPI? lol. Then I am sure it does not change my previous point
By gold? Looking at Dow/Gold ratio, I agree with you that the bull never
made its return. It's actually supporting my argument that we are still
in a secular bear market in the stocks.
financial |
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c*****r
发帖数: 529 | 18 Should You Trust Your Instincts on Gold?
Recent events in San Francisco and at La Guardia Airport made me recall a
terrifying experience years ago. It was my last flight of the year, and I
was headed home for Christmas. The plane was speeding down the runway to
take off, when the pilot suddenly reversed thrust and slammed on the brakes;
the plane shook like I have never experienced before as the pilot aborted
the takeoff. As we stopped mere feet from the end of the runway and caught
our breath, ... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 19 we are no where close to a biotech bubble, at least 10 years away
an anology would be IT companies in early 80's
yes, many of them will be eliminated through the next cyclical bear market
but the sector will be the main driver for the following secular
bull market, which will push SP500 to 10000 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 290 | 20 When Will Twitter Become Profitable
Jun. 29, 2014 8:37 AM ET | 4 comments | About: Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no
plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary
The network’s growth rate is slowing down, but that doesn’t mean it
isn’t growing.
This business generated $24 million in revenue for the company this
quarter. Atpresent, that's 10% of the total revenue. But that doesn't mean
it can't gr... 阅读全帖 |
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t***l
发帖数: 3644 | 21 这说的不错，rates要上，USD进入secular bull trend，所有commodity都不看好，能
横盘就算强势了。别再抓住博士后提供的“最后的机会”拉，LOL |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 22 growth stock短期都受制于大盘，甚至比大盘多跌两三倍。但是中长期来看其实是可以
脱离大盘的，因为根本来讲他们的故事是secular的，大盘的故事是cyclical的。 |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 23 不敢当，我就闲着没事儿打打酱油。政府如果能有更给力的政策固然好，但我倒不觉得
EV会长期依赖那个。现在补贴的这几千块钱，有钱买ModelS的说实在的也不在乎，电池
成本下来后就更不算啥了。石油和汽油行业方面，美国政府能干的事情不多，因为利益
关系太深厚了，就算奥巴马想怎么样也动不了根基，而且他也不是真想。EV的成功还是
要靠它自己作为一个行业来讲对消费者能make more sense，带来更好的体验，就像我
们现在都用数据了都不用固定电话了一样。我觉得大可不必把汽油车当成眼中钉。该发
生的自然会发生，fossil fuel是不可再生的资源，也没剩几十年的储量了，所以长期
逐渐退出的趋势是很明确的，短期的价格起伏对EV这种secular trend的行业变迁不会
有很大的影响。
举个反例，太阳能。这个政府可没少补贴，各种烧钱，最后还是大部分都倒掉了。原因
是那会儿技术没成熟到那个程度，全行业的商业逻辑还是不成立。任何行业，把政府因
素拿掉以后的单纯商业逻辑必须先成立了，然后政府才能帮助加速进程。 |
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k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 24 1) WLL增发后dilution还是比较大的 （$7-$8）2）WLL发股发债后，leverage还是比较
高 （3.5-4X 左右今年年底 现在还是高于4X，银行要求不高于4X）3）WLL如果不能买
掉一些midstream的资产，今年明年的funding gap 还在，cash flow vs capex 缺口还
在 4）WLL自己说近期不可能把自己卖了，这样股票估值里M&A premium 就没有了。5）
Bakken assets的风险比Permian和Eagle Ford都高，breakeven要求的油价也高不少，
在基于长期油价下 估值的时候要有一个discount。目前 WLL大概值high-$30s, 不应该
再高了。不过话又说回来，energy sector 现在很多股票已经fairly valued 或是over
-valued. 大家基本上用股票和ETF在追高油价。还有short squeeze也很厉害。感觉现
在风险挺大的。听说dedicated energy specialist funds 准备逢高卖出锁利。今天早
上Morgan Stanley刚说的。
... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 25 Here's what Wall Street is predicting for stock market in 2016
Akin Oyedele
Nov. 28, 2015, 6:00 AM 173,206 8
Most of the big stock-market forecasts for 2016 are in.
Wall Street steadily lowered its expectations for the market as 2015
unfolded.
On Thursday December 24, the S&P 500 closed near 2,061. Last December, the
median year-end target for 2015 among the top strategists was higher at 2,
213 according to Bloomberg.
Based on the forecasts we've received so far, many of the most bull... 阅读全帖 |
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N****p
发帖数: 1691 | 26 好像是同时 long-short 同一行业的两个相互竞争的公司
这样比较容易出问题 比如2013年的QCOM和BRCM
当时QCOM垄断高端市场 BRCM的相应部门投资好几Billion却一直在死亡线挣扎 后来
2014年这个部门彻底关门 所有投资打水漂 很难想象2013-2015 QCOM腰斩 BRCM翻倍吧
我觉得如果是做secular trend 还是同时long-short两个行业的ETF比较好
中期long-short 个股 风险挺大的 |
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发帖数: 1 | 27 STX 今天大跌18%。
以下是我司3月30日发布的空方报告。更多请看timelylongshort.com or .cn
投资假设：看空
希捷科技 Seagate Plc 代码：STX
希捷科技全面致力于在硬盘驱动器（HDD）市场发展，但是随着这个市场逐渐被固态硬
盘（SSD）所取代，希捷科技面临着长期的发展困境。此外，西部数码通过收购美国晟
碟公司（SNDK）布局SSD，限制了希捷科技通过大规模收购快速布局SSD的前景。
Hypothetical Short Case published on 3/30/2016
STX is fully concentrated in the hard disk drive (HDD) segment. As this
segment is losing market share to Solid State Drive (SSD), STX will face
secular headwinds. In addition, while WDC has entered SSD market by
acquiring SNDK, STX is le... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 28 2180。2180要是再撑不住，本轮牛市终结，甚至可能是8年的secular牛市的终结。 |
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n**i
发帖数: 116 | 29 这两次其实是一次， 上下半场， 是对 1982 ～ 2000 大牛市的反正。
2013年4月开始的， 是又一轮大牛市，this secular bull will run until 2030. |
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j**********r
发帖数: 3798 | 30 DIS早晚被NFLX操死。secular trend是不可逆的。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 31 I am serious with my business.
Please help me.
I really need secular success to prove something.
Thank you. |
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c******a
发帖数: 4400 | 32 说的很好。归根结底，产品服人，创新力强，secular trend，啥也挡不住。
: 指数型增长，每三年十倍
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n*******s
发帖数: 17267 | 33 我看到的是房间商，半导体，金融。。。
MS说的secular bear market 挺准，但是2750年底的数字似乎是 off了 |
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j*****t
发帖数: 5475 | 36 没有什么industry能保持30年growth, 这年头能看清今后3-5年就不错了
就目前的形式举几个例子：
Retail方面，best buy, jc penney这样的brick & mortar就在垮下去，Amazon这样的e
-commerce就在不断增长；广告业方面，5-6年前newspaper/ print advertising就完蛋
了，现在普通的online banner advertising(Yahoo!, FB to some extent)也在走下坡
路，但mobile advertising是新的增长点。这些也不需要什么高深的商业知识，看看自
己作为普通消费者行为上有什么变化就知道了。
我差不多一年前跳的槽，前一个industry在decline，我走了之后眼看着公司revenue/
earnings从好不容易manage 1-2% growth到一下溃跌-6%，股价跌了近一半，然后宣布
要structure/ layoff；后一个industry是secular growth，轻轻松松每个quarter都有
double digit growth，一年内... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********s
发帖数: 126 | 37 I know you want to sound sarcastic but Unofrtunately you are right-This
country, the United States of America, los estados unidos, is unambiguously
turning to the left day by day.
就算你们这个美国新闻版的小丑不开心，还是蜉蝣撼大树，可笑不自量，美国这个国家
，就是正在一步步的向左转，它的人种，即使这次CIR不通过，也会变得更多元，白人
在20-30年内降到50%以下。它的宗教势力正变得越来越弱，SECULAR以及其他宗教势力
越来越强。它的社会观念越来越左化，同性婚姻这两周几乎是闪电般在几个州通过，6
月份DOMA极其可能又要被击败。
你们这一群小丑，例如美新那几个LCZLCZ,PGXJ等等，再怎么蹦达，也改变不了这个大
趋势，还是省一点。
CIR是大势所趋，我一直这么说，主要是因为它不是一个孤立的政策，它是在美国整体
就在左化这个大背景，大趋势之下，和同性婚姻，人种组成变化，社会世俗化等等都是
密切联系的。... 阅读全帖 |
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p********r
发帖数: 565 | 38 从下面的例子可以看出来，造假，是个永恒的话题，只要人性中还有贪婪欺诈的一面，无
论是在火星还是地球，都会有人造假，正如我在以前的文章中一再重申的：对付人类动物
性本能的负面影响的唯一的绝对有效方法就是“监督”和“惩罚”。我不相信西方人天生
就那么绅士风度就那么克遵守法就那么不耻盗版软件（其实受偶的影响，我办公室内的所
有老外都在使用盗版的Windowssoftware了，哈哈)，我们之所以看到见到一个高度有序和
守法的西方社会，关键还是他们的先人在血的教训中建立起了一个非常严格庞大无孔不入
的法制体系，并且这个法制体系在不断的随着社会的发展而发展，这客观上形成了一个因
果报应系统（呵呵，想起了善有善报恶有恶报来了:p)，并且潜移默化的影响了他们的思
维方式，那就是：
be honest! tell the truth! 当然这里面也有宗教的影响在内（"guilty"!!) 但主要还
是世俗化(secular)的强有力监督和完备的法律体系（jurisprudence）
但是任何事物都不可能是完美的，法律也总有漏动啊，就算in principle没有漏洞，执行
起来也肯定有了，因此监督还需 |
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l****c
发帖数: 838 | 39 Robots get out of here.
For Human Beings to read:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_law
Blue laws, also known as Sunday laws, are laws designed to restrict or ban
some or all Sunday activities for religious reasons, particularly to promote
the observance of a day of worship or rest. Blue laws may also restrict
shopping or ban sale of certain items on specific days, most often on
Sundays in the western world. Blue laws are enforced in parts of the United
States and Canada as well as some Europea... 阅读全帖 |
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s***s
发帖数: 107 | 40 我同意你的观点，宗教的名义不能超越法律。不过好像也没人超越啊。
不过也将心比心的想想，不是每个人都能总是控制自己的情绪的。
比如一个日本人和一个中国人在路上发生了一点摩擦，日本人说了句“支那人”
，有多少人会去选择法律解决，去法院去告那个人侮辱，而不是出手打人？
“清真猪肉“起的是同样效果。所谓的汉回冲突，最初可能只是个打架事件，
一方动手狠了，或者公安没有及时制止，矛盾就升级了。
我看这个讨论还是中止吧，因为我们都不知道具体事件的具体情况，在这里评价
是非曲直，不过都是提出一些道理，这些道理可能都对，但是不是能够用来评价
某个事件，谁也说不清。
applied
performing
God!
have
of |
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m****a
发帖数: 2216 | 41 去年NBA的TNT解说员Steve Kerr（熟悉老公牛队的都知道他了，前年
在马刺退役）在解说火箭的一场常规赛时说了一句“shoot over the
7'6 Chinaman ”，他指的是姚明。当天篮球版几乎所有ID都发邮件或
打电话给NBA或80-20，结果是Kerr公开道歉，说他并不知道chinaman
还有歧视的意思，又说他弟媳就是chinese，没有理由去歧视中国人，
并给姚明打电话道歉。另外姚明刚来NBA时，头号中锋Shaq O'neal
故意跟记者说了一串“ching chong...”自编中文，本来什么意思都
没有，也有华人抱怨说他取笑中文，Shaq不得不道歉了事。
国内要形成以民族歧视，城乡歧视，地域歧视，性别歧视等等为耻的
道德规范，同时也有对这些歧视进行处罚的法律手段的话，大家碰上
纠纷诉诸法律裁决或舆论谴责的意识就会渐渐增强。
这几代基本上都没戏了，这方面的教育从偶们的下一代起，多教点国
情常识，国史，民族常识，等等做人的基本常识。别什么共产主义，
社会主义, 那么小的孩子懂什么. |
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r******y
发帖数: 21907 | 42 不过看前几年那个冲突， 有些人利欲熏心也着实可气，矛头还是指错地方了，其实老百
姓自己械斗能有什么用处，死伤一些人真是很不值 |
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d********r
发帖数: 303 | 43
You can only punish them as trespassing or damaging other people's
property. That't it. You should not infer teh word "religion" , or there will
be severe consequence.
Give you an example of muslim leader. Ataturk, the founder of turkey
republic, stated firmly that a nation should be secular. This is why turkey is
more advanced than arabic country. Never forget, though we should respect
other people's faith, the nation as a whole should be not directly support any
branch of religion. |
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d********r
发帖数: 303 | 44
The issue is not whether religious group will accept, but whether this is
the law that fullfill the secular spirit. There shall be no compromise on this
issue.
I have extensive experience with religious people. I have firends from iran,
turkey and center asia. They are very nice. The issue is not religion itself
but politics. Religiion shall only be kept in individual's heart rather than
be a political issue. That should be prevented with all costs.
If we open the door for muslims (say ha |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 46 怎么会没关系? 当初小布什肯定不同意搞卡扎菲的阿.
巴马这个穆斯林, 一看卡扎菲叛变了,就要去搞了.
埃及叙利亚的政府其实都是secular的, 所以巴马要把他们搞掉, 然后让穆斯林执政,
没想到埃及兄弟会被军方干掉了.
不会关阿, 共和党肯定支持伊拉克不撤军的. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 47 怎么会没关系? 当初小布什肯定不同意搞卡扎菲的阿.
巴马这个穆斯林, 一看卡扎菲叛变了,就要去搞了.
埃及叙利亚的政府其实都是secular的, 所以巴马要把他们搞掉, 然后让穆斯林执政,
没想到埃及兄弟会被军方干掉了.
不会关阿, 共和党肯定支持伊拉克不撤军的. |
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g******4
发帖数: 6339 | 48 【 以下文字转载自 History 讨论区 】
发信人: gogo2004 (挑灯看剑), 信区: History
标 题: Evolution of Chinese intellectuals' thought over two decades
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jan 15 17:38:31 2012, 美东)
Working at a top political think tank of the government, the author of the
patriotic Chinese tome Paradoxes of American Hegemony today delights in
contrasting Western economic failures with the successes of China’s chosen
economic path.
Back in the 1980s Ding Yifan had idealistically believed in Western models
as offering solut... 阅读全帖 |
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t**********p
发帖数: 2672 | 49 A correlation does not imply causation. This is seems like your conclusion
rather than the author's conclusion, don't quote something out of a whole
context as evidence to support and make your own conclusion.
"The U.S. is therefore the least efficient western nation in terms of
converting wealth into cultural and physical health. Understanding the
reasons for this failure is urgent, and doing so requires considering the
degree to which cause versus effect is responsible for the observed
correla... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******s
发帖数: 9926 | 50
Los Angeles was founded in 1781 on a site southeast of Olvera Street near
the Los Angeles River by a group of Spanish pobladores (settlers),
consisting of 11 families — 44 men, women and children, led by Don Fernando
Rivera y Moncada, Lt. Governor of the Californias and accompanied by a
contingent of soldiers — who had set out from the nearby Mission San
Gabriel Arcángel to establish a secular pueblo along the banks of the Porci
úncula River at the Indian village of Yang-na.[1] |
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