Q*K
发帖数: 3464 | 1 如果其他国家的需求没有满足，而且没达到quota，不应该有其他国家开始用spill
over
中国还没有到quota，必须给够我们才能让老印使用spill over，否则是违法的。
这个角度怎么样？ |
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Q*K
发帖数: 3464 | 2 基于NIU以前的一个模板，我写了一封信。高手们帮着改改，如果需要的话我们发给奥
本。
Dear Mr. Oppenheim:
This is New Immigrants United (NIU). We are sending this letter on behalf of
tens of thousands of legal immigrants from P.R. China in employment based
category 2 and 3 waiting for visa numbers.
First, we would like to express our appreciation in your effort in pushing
forward the cut-off date. In FY2011, we noticed there are positive signs in
resolving severe backlog of Chinese employment based immigrants. We are
hoping that with clo... 阅读全帖 |
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Q*K
发帖数: 3464 | 3 so...did you get answers for these:
1. will O allow china eb2 reach 2800 in may?
2. will china eb2 get any spill over in may?
if the answer is no to 1, then we are fucked again, all spill over goes to
India while we have not used our own 2800. |
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j****l
发帖数: 1440 | 4 From the tally sheet, there are more than 15k Chinese EB2/3. Why so few
people would like to stand out to make our voice.
India go to DC and get the spill over. Why Chinese stay at home and do
nothing?
Most NIU's effort is just email. We need more affirmative actions. Protest
in DC is an urgent action and need to pursue ASAP before India eat all the
spill overs.
My PD is almost there. And I may not need to care about this anymore. But I
have to say:
Rise UP! , NIU! Rise UP! Chinese! |
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z********i
发帖数: 60 | 5 Did you know?
You are the 10th person from Illinois to sign this petition!
The sample letter in the website when I preview has a lot of space and not
aligned returns. So I delete those hard returns to make the paragraph more
complete. I paste here, hopefully it can be copied and pasted easier.
=================
New Immigrants United
End Discriminatory Practice That Led to Disadvantage of China Employment-Based Second Preference in FY 2011
I am writing to express my grave concerns regarding sever... 阅读全帖 |
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k****g
发帖数: 3 | 6 From internet
This was just posted by the American Immigration Lawyers Association:
Possible EB-2 Priority Date Movement in the Coming Months
Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 11040563 (posted Apr. 5, 2011)"
Following-up on his earlier observations on EB-1 demand and "spill-down" to
EB-2 reported on InfoNet on March 29, 2011 (InfoNet Doc. No. 11032960),
Charlie Oppenheim discussed scenarios for EB-2 movement in the coming months
. In preparation of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin, DOS will consider the
... 阅读全帖 |
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y*******w
发帖数: 5917 | 7 ＴＮＮＤ，难道我的大脑处理这种逻辑不够用？还是不能理解，让我来试图理解，看看
我理解得对不对，
每个季度limit每国７００，那么到五月印度用了自己配额的２１００，中国也用了２
１００，然后因为预计有spill-over, spill over 按PD排序，所以印度用了SO的xxxx
个，加上原来的２１００已经超过了２８００ annual limit．印度吃了SO后仍然没有
达到中国的PD，所以中国这个月没有吃到任何SO．从下一季度开始，中国仍然是７００
个名额，印度人仍然有700个名额，然后剩余的SO再按PD分配．这就是奥本的逻辑，对
么？
我现在还有一个疑问，既然中印自身的2800的名额肯定都会用掉，还搞什么quartly
limit有什么意义？应该每一年度的第一天就把２８００全部用掉，然后等到年末的时
候吃SO．这样不是更符合逻辑么？
limit |
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c*u
发帖数: 916 | 8 如果明年还有spill over，应该是需要一年半，即2012年末。如果没有spill over，应
该还要4年。所以你赶快祷告美国经济继续恶化。 |
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a****l
发帖数: 8211 | 9 其实也就是一个很现实的问题:比如明年的这个时候,发现eb2的库存只有一万了,但是
spill-over有两万(假设的数字),要问O打算怎么办.按理应该就马上前进eb2突破07/7,
但是这样一来等于把半年的名额在一两个月里用掉,O不一定喜欢.如果不这样的话,到八
九月才突破的话,新的485比较难在一两个月里批掉,这样eb2就不能完全用到spill over
了.当然,其实这种情况下总名额是不浪费的,因为没用的就会留给eb3用了.这就又回到
了古老的怎样分大饼的问题上了. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 10 If more spill over can be generated in this summer, they have to allocate
the extra number to NVC, you may get a chance to submit 485. It depends how
many visa numbers NVC can get.
Even if you can't submit 485 this summer, you will be able to submit it next
summer. Next year I expect at least 25k spill over. 4 years waiting is
impossible. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 11 originally I had similar misunderstandings.......
after detailed research, I found the spill over will not go to EB3 or minmum
will go to EB3.
NVC has sent invitations to many people to submit fee, some people with PD
2008 also got notices already.
Apparently NVC started this action after DOS realized the huge number of
spill overs this year in this April. NVC sent tons of emails in this April. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 12 It is bad, but why?
the root of this is that Mr.O does not allocate the spill over based on a
quarter basis.
If he can allocate the spill over on a quarter basis, they can move the PD
slowly and steadily.
Q2
PWMB |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 13 In senario1: we will have 5.5k spill over in the last month.
In senario2: we will have 11.5k spill over in the last month.
Currently we have 10.5k pending demand, minus 2.5k in August, we will have
8k pending demand in september. 11.5k will be enough to clean 8k in senario2.
In senario1, we will reach the end of June 2007.
I think the final result should be in the middle. If Mr.O wants to build a
pipeline, then we will reach Q1 or Q2 of 2008. |
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r********n
发帖数: 1162 | 14 what he said is:
19k-EB1 approval-EB2 ROW approval-EB3 approval=the final spill over.
I think the final spill over will be enough to clean 2007 mess.
AND |
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H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 15 这件事要从长计议，利弊现在还看不清楚。
从原则上说，中国人现在受欺负是明显的，原因是奥本想减少印度的backlog, 否则让
印度EB3等9年，听起来不人道 ( 2011-2002 = 9 )，这是美国人蠢，印度人ICC精明,
钻了美国人的空子，是历史遗留下来的问题，现在查ICC太晚了。
如果class suit, 告赢了中国人集体得益，可以吃spill over, 经济不景气， 下面两
年的spill over 应该还有不少。
但是如果告不赢， 或者赢不了实惠，是不是会有副作用，我想他们也不敢明目张胆的
报复，但是穿小鞋是有可能的。 |
|
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k****k
发帖数: 3322 | 17 Unless Quarterly Spill Over, 07大潮的人又陷进11小潮里了.奥先生果然是皮影戏专
家.就像CNUS说的那样,Push Quarterly Spill Over才是正道. |
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H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 18 没有这方面的数据，但是我上面贴出来的数据表明，一旦排期过了大潮，大概只须要一
年左右的时间就可以清空FY2008和FY2009年的EB2库存。这两年只有区区5340人批了
PERM, 其中包括有人换工作（相当于一人在两年里申请了两个PERM,这种人极其少，我
们算八十个吧），还包括从2008年到2011年海归的人（这种人应该有四百人左右），还
包括与美国公民结婚的（我们算五十个吧），还包括...
总共剩下来的大约4900人左右，其中就算70%是EB2, 也不过是3430人，假设25%是夫妻
都申请的，25%是单身，总共需要5145个绿卡名额。
我们EB2一年有2803的配额，加上下面两年美国公司帮员工申请绿卡的应该比往年少，
能够产生Spill Over, 如果中国EB2能够拿到两千三百个左右的Spill Over，应该一年
就可以消化掉2008和2009年的中国EB2。
但是到了2010年就慢下来了... |
|
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 19 没有这方面的数据，但是我上面贴出来的数据表明，一旦排期过了大潮，大概只须要一
年左右的时间就可以清空FY2008和FY2009年的EB2库存。这两年只有区区5340人批了
PERM, 其中包括有人换工作（相当于一人在两年里申请了两个PERM,这种人极其少，我
们算八十个吧），还包括从2008年到2011年海归的人（这种人应该有四百人左右），还
包括与美国公民结婚的（我们算五十个吧），还包括...
总共剩下来的大约4900人左右，其中就算70%是EB2, 也不过是3430人，假设25%是夫妻
都申请的，25%是单身，总共需要5145个绿卡名额。
我们EB2一年有2803的配额，加上下面两年美国公司帮员工申请绿卡的应该比往年少，
能够产生Spill Over, 如果中国EB2能够拿到两千三百个左右的Spill Over，应该一年
就可以消化掉2008和2009年的中国EB2。
但是到了2010年就慢下来了... |
|
n****n
发帖数: 568 | 20 是不是说PD在2008，2009的即使不靠spill over也就等一两年就拿到了？如果spill
over的话基本上就可以大跃进了？ |
|
n****n
发帖数: 568 | 21 是不是说PD在2008，2009的即使不靠spill over也就等一两年就拿到了？如果spill
over的话基本上就可以大跃进了？ |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 22 Why does it matter? We are tied to indians if we submit > 2800
And if we don't have backlog, we don't get spill over.
It's not like current allocation and spill over can clear the
backlog anytime soon.
Only we become ROW without backlog and we can't use 2800 every
year we suffer. How is that gonna happen? |
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p********9
发帖数: 37 | 23 你看错了demand data. Demand data 指的是before 1/1/2005有1175个可批cases,而在
1/1/2006前约有2900个cases，所以2012财年的最终排期到不了1/1/2006(除非有family
spill over).排期爬行的原因是因为EB3C只有2500个名额，分到每个月只有200多点，
而EB3C的CP case 很多及所谓的hidden demand也不少。老O说consular总是领过多(多
于demand)的visa number,有时是浪费掉了，有时用掉了（我也不懂他们如何用掉的）
。按以往经验，下半年的排期会快些。
family spill over必须自己去争取。我不相信印度人2011年会有8000个FB剩余名额，
但是老O在最后两个月（8，9）给了EB3I几千个多余名额。 |
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b***d
发帖数: 288 | 24 1．一段话
China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration
Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment
of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has
required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in
an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual
limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases
significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of
the cut-off. Rea... 阅读全帖 |
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H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 25 除了跟立法的国会进行互动之外，我们还在和USCIS的数据处和国务院的奥本保持密切
联系。我得到的确切信息不加括号，我个人的解读加括号。
2012年的SO可能近似于2011年的SO（略高于2011年的SO）；
排期在夏天之前不倒退（夏天之后也未必倒退，即使倒退也不过是退到2010年初）；
三月排期前进之后将停止大幅前进的速度，改为不动或者微调；
(虽然现在已经在透支3012的红利）但是3012过后排期将继续大幅前进；
（解决EB3C的最有效途径是通过3012后，EB2C可以current而且不需要EB1的spill over
就能自给自足,从而使EB3C能够吃到EB1C的spill over) |
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H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 26 除了跟立法的国会进行互动之外，我们还在和USCIS的数据处和国务院的奥本保持密切
联系。我得到的确切信息不加括号，我个人的解读加括号。
2012年的SO可能近似于2011年的SO（略高于2011年的SO）；
排期在夏天之前不倒退（夏天之后也未必倒退，即使倒退也不过是退到2010年初）；
三月排期前进之后将停止大幅前进的速度，改为不动或者微调；
(虽然现在已经在透支3012的红利）但是3012过后排期将继续大幅前进；
（解决EB3C的最有效途径是通过3012后，EB2C可以current而且不需要EB1的spill over
就能自给自足,从而使EB3C能够吃到EB1C的spill over) |
|
c****r
发帖数: 969 | 27 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
cnus (会飞的猪) 于 (Thu Jul 14 17:40:07 2011, 美东) 提到:
THERE ARE ABOUT XXX EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN AVAILABLE AFTER THE
AUGUST DATES HAVE BEEN SET。 BUT AS I KEEP SAYING USCIS USES THOUSANDS OF
ADDITIONAL NUMBERS EACH MONTH。 THAT USE WOULD INCLUDE THE REST OF JULY AND
THEN DURING AUGUST（EVENTUALLY SEPTEMBER） FURTHER REDUCING THE REMAINING
NUMBERS EVEN BEFORE THE SEPTEMBER ALLOCATIONS ARE MADE。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
cnus (会飞的猪) 于 ... 阅读全帖 |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 28 please study on spill over. 30K or more spill over is not a dream. |
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c*m
发帖数: 836 | 29 不容易呀，恭喜。我的PD比你还早一个月，我的PERM是在关闸之后一个星期批的，这一
等就是四年半。想起atlanta center就来气。０８年的时候还没意识到形势的严峻，天
天在这个版上灌水，骂p838, 后来的同学可能不知道，那个什么vertical spill/
horizontal spill的名词就是我发明的，当时还用visio画了个图来表示我的理解。到
０９年上半年年，开始意识到没戏了，也不看移民版了，也不关心排期了，那个时候的
分析都很恐怖，一竿子就捅到十年以后了，所以也懒的想这事儿了，基本上就是爱谁谁
的心态。
当年觉得遥遥无期的，不知不觉也就这么过来了。虽然有很多小同学说，其实我不急着
绿，能交上去排队就行了。只能说你们把现实想的太轻松了，当年PWMB和成千上万的０
７PD＇er们，其实就这么点小小的愿望嘛，有这么简单就好了。关于这个提前提交４８
５的admin fix的建议，都推动无数次了，现在基本上可以肯定是被法律条文绊住了，
没有什么灰色地带可以play。现在我觉得移民局是相当友好的，法律条文的灰色地带，
基本上能可严可松的地方，都尽量松。但是从移民法的角度看，... 阅读全帖 |
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c*m
发帖数: 836 | 30 不容易呀，恭喜。我的PD比你还早一个月，我的PERM是在关闸之后一个星期批的，这一
等就是四年半。想起atlanta center就来气。０８年的时候还没意识到形势的严峻，天
天在这个版上灌水，骂p838, 后来的同学可能不知道，那个什么vertical spill/
horizontal spill的名词就是我发明的，当时还用visio画了个图来表示我的理解。到
０９年上半年年，开始意识到没戏了，也不看移民版了，也不关心排期了，那个时候的
分析都很恐怖，一竿子就捅到十年以后了，所以也懒的想这事儿了，基本上就是爱谁谁
的心态。
当年觉得遥遥无期的，不知不觉也就这么过来了。虽然有很多小同学说，其实我不急着
绿，能交上去排队就行了。只能说你们把现实想的太轻松了，当年PWMB和成千上万的０
７PD＇er们，其实就这么点小小的愿望嘛，有这么简单就好了。关于这个提前提交４８
５的admin fix的建议，都推动无数次了，现在基本上可以肯定是被法律条文绊住了，
没有什么灰色地带可以play。现在我觉得移民局是相当友好的，法律条文的灰色地带，
基本上能可严可松的地方，都尽量松。但是从移民法的角度看，... 阅读全帖 |
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d*********y
发帖数: 748 | 31 EB1可能是历史上第一次没有任何spill down吧，以后可能会抢EB2-ROW的名额。即使还
剩下一些EB2-ROW的spill over, 如果还是跟老印捆绑，老中EB2每年基本也就拿2800了。 |
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m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 32 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Helsinki (跑步然后桑拿) 于 (Fri Sep 16 13:16:14 2011, 美东) 提到:
旧政策：
（1）排期先紧后松，可能浪费
（2）估计visa demand, 决定VB日期，摸着石头过河
新政策：
（1）排期先松后紧，避免浪费
（2）建立库存，观测实际 visa consumption 情况
（3）一旦出现实际 visa consumption 达到了年度配额，即使PD早于VB，可以递交485，但是交上去的485却被打入冷宫，直到奥本释放 spill over.
这里的关键是即使PD早于VB，也不可以批准绿卡，一个与VB同等重要的备忘录将会被制度化来通知律师和申请人。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
bearJhonson (八棵七七葚) 于 (Fri Sep 16 13:17:19 2011, 美东) 提到:
source?
旧政策：估计visa demand, 决定VB日期，摸着石头过河
新政策：建立库存，观... 阅读全帖 |
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m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 33 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Helsinki (跑步然后蛋腚地桑拿) 于 (Fri Mar 23 09:31:57 2012, 美东) 提到:
结果是否会多几个spill over呢？
Coming to America Costs $500,000 With Job Plan Prone to Failures
2012-03-23 04:03:00.0 GMT
By Dune Lawrence
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Civic leaders in El Monte, California, saw the
Transit Village development planned for land around the bus station as a way
to revitalize downtown.
Developers John Leung and Jean Lang pitched it as something else to
wealthy Asians: a t... 阅读全帖 |
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a*******d
发帖数: 4846 | 34 http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/987681833
Posted by Leo1970 (2) 16 hours 2 minutes ago
to billgates1:
Guys,
Here are some facts about employment based category and some more specifics
about ROWERS.
Employment based community was united up until Spill over rule got changed
few years back followed by HR 3012 introduction by IV.
INDIAN Community, Honestly, Indian community has been the driving force for
past 5 years for all employment based activities (may not have benefited
m... 阅读全帖 |
|
m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 35 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
KRISWANG (KRIS) 于 (Thu Mar 29 09:23:42 2012, 美东) 提到:
看来只好等到最后一个季度再看了。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Helsinki (跑步然后蛋腚地桑拿) 于 (Thu Mar 29 09:28:43 2012, 美东) 提到:
很有意思的是虽然我们的PERM数据表明老印是我们的十倍，这厮却说只有三倍多。值得
大牛们研究。
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
initid (initial D) 于 (Thu Mar 29 09:31:51 2012, 美东) 提到:
多谢
with
status
use
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
KRISWANG (KRIS) 于 (Thu Mar 29 09:36:13 2012, 美东) 提到:
我记得有人扫号140的case... 阅读全帖 |
|
m*******l
发帖数: 12782 | 36 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
kickok (淡定熟男) 于 (Thu Sep 15 13:35:17 2011, 美东) 提到:
Today, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Immigrant Visa Control Office
issued a memorandum notifying United States Citizenship and Immigration
Service (USCIS) of the exhaustion of all employment-based visa numbers for
Fiscal Year (FY) 2011. Accordingly, please note, empolyment-based
applications for adjustment of status in the U.S. and immigrant visa
applications abroad will not be accepted and will ... 阅读全帖 |
|
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 37 Prior to 1/1/2012, the number is 4950. This is the number very closed to the
EB2C whose PD is before 5/1/2010. If we consider EB1C or other EBC, the
number could be less, say 4500.
Based on this data, it will take 1.6 years to digest these PD from October,
2012 if no spill over. That is middle of 2014. Considering of possible spill
over, the people whose PD is before 5/1/2010 may get GC in the first 6
months of 2014.
For PD who lost the last boat, it may get 485 submitted no early than the
end o... 阅读全帖 |
|
H******i
发帖数: 4704 | 38 那中国EB1没有用完的名额直接给EB2C了吗？
菲佣EB2没有用完的名额，有什么法律规定要先spill down给菲佣EB3吗？而不是先
spill over给中印EB2呢？ |
|
|
f*c
发帖数: 2726 | 40 还有我记得我以前就跟你说过，EB1，4，5下来的不就spill over,EB2 row剩的才叫
spill over ,才是你说的SO
到。 |
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z******a
发帖数: 582 | 41 我记得以前 spill over 的绿卡名额是按国家分配的，不是按排期分配的。如果能改回
来，老中就能多拿到名额，而不是把spill over的名额都给老印 |
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s*******e
发帖数: 4188 | 42 TEPCO will pay if they are proven to have made mistake. The donations are
for people displaced by the natural disaster. |
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m*******o
发帖数: 625 | 43 有公民身份的请make our voice heard都去vote吧！
还在挣扎办绿卡的同胞，请为NIU捐款！一年一度又到了和烙印抢spill over的时候。
如果能从烙印手中抢到spill over，EB23排期降大大缩短。如果现在还不行动，今年的
spillover又将全部归烙印了，办绿卡人数EB23C只有印度人的十分之一，还没有韩国人
多，这些年却一直有长达5年的排期；这样下去，烙印技术移民只会加速增长，中国技
术移民却每年只能分到很有限的名额。斗争未必能胜利，但至少让uscis听到EB23C的声
音，有所顾忌。
小女子刚买完房，穷的叮当响，捐了。但能力实在有限，希望各位办绿卡的同胞以及关
心新移民的同胞，捐个款吧！滴水不成海，独木难成林，请大家和衷共济，群策群力，
为共同利益尽一份力！
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/32101337.html |
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H********t
发帖数: 81 | 44 http://rt.com/uk/212451-bp-jobs-global-cutbacks/
"The company will outline details of the planned job cuts on Wednesday"
Oil giant BP is accelerating plans to cut hundreds of jobs within its back-
office departments - many of them based in the UK and US.
The company, which has been downsizing since the oil spill in the Gulf of
Mexico in 2010, said it had long planned the cuts, but is speeding up the
process due to falling oil prices.
Crude prices have fallen by almost 40% this year, reducing oil... 阅读全帖 |
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s****y
发帖数: 18685 | 45 太特么无耻了
Tesoro Logistics has agreed to pay a proposed $7,000 penalty to compensate t
he state of Utah for a diesel fuel spill in Salt Lake City's Rosewood Park l
ast year.
The spill, which leaked from a broken fuel transmission line, released about
100 barrels of fuel into Rosewood Park, about 1400 N. 1200 West, on January
30, 2015. The fuel mingled with water leaking from a nearby city main, whic
h broke at roughly the same time; together they formed a pond in the park. S
ome of the oil-water mi... 阅读全帖 |
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m******h
发帖数: 5753 | 48 找到答案了
Boat Battery Buying Guide
written by Keith Sutton
Confused about marine batteries? This guide will help you sort through the
different types and choose the ideal battery for the task at hand.
Marine Battery Buying Guide
Understanding the different types of marine batteries available and their
applications will help you select the right battery to power your rig.
Selecting a new 12-volt marine battery for your boat can be a daunting task
for first-time buyers. Many types are availab... 阅读全帖 |
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n*x
发帖数: 7 | 49 A sad day for those who love fishing under the lake livingston dam or spill
way. A 6 year old boy lost his life while on a fishing trip with his family.
Couldn't imagine how his family face the tragedy.
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?section=news/local&id=8727643
Just a reminder to those who like to go fishing over there:
- There are currents and drop-offs under the dam or spill way, always go
with someone who is familiar with the area if it is your first time
- Personally, if I need t... 阅读全帖 |
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f*********n
发帖数: 11154 | 50 这片短文不错，聊了一些从车内使用手枪的难题：
http://handgunsmag.com/tactics_training/shooting_from_a_car_110310/
......
For instance, while seated behind the wheel doing a right-handed,
strong-side draw, you can easily have the gun muzzle track across your
legs and an arm. "Stubbing" the gun muzzle in the steering wheel or
against steering-column levers is also easy to do. And this assumes you
have managed not to entangle hand, arm and handgun in the seat belt and
have avoided any drinks in the center-console cup hol... 阅读全帖 |
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