s*****c
发帖数: 753 | 1 Corrections!
The hr3012 amendments changed the allocation during 过渡期. Now 在过渡期,
设定了任何国家不能拿>85%剩余名额的限制
so the analysis change to:
2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 0.85*0.85=72.25% india, leaves at most 12.75%
to china
2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 0.9*0.85=76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to
china
2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to china.
still, we should be alarmed that there are no reserved visa number nor
limit for any country after 2014. We can't only look at the visa number
we can rob from ROW, we should be prepared for the visa number indian
can take from us.
_________________________
作为旁观者，我读了hr3012. 看起来hr3012废除了EB的country limit,只是开始几年
过渡期给ROW一些保底. 同时在过渡期,设定了任何国家不能拿>70%的限制 (basically
India since it has earlier PD)
2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 70% india, leaves at most 15% to china
2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 70% india, leaves at most 20% to china
2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 70% india, leaves at most 20% to china.
Note, the 70% mentioned in the allocation of unreserved visa number is
"70%
of the total visa number made available in 203(b)"
Also, what china got will be shared with ROW. However, if it is based
on PD
, I suppose we will get majority of the quota. I don't think we can get
any
number from india's 70% since it will be depleted to solve the massive
EB3I.
So far, it is good news to EB2C&EB3C.
However, since all of those are covered in "the transition rule for EB
immigrants", after 2014, ROW will not get any reserved visa number and
there
are no 70% limit for any single country, unless there are new
amendement, I
saw the disaster for EB3C and EB3ROW. EB2ROW will be hurt as well.
EB2C
was 捆绑 with EB2I already, so unless EB2I number grow like EB3I (which
is
possible), there is less concern for EB2C.
reference:
HR3012: http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/112hr3012.pdf
INS ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS:
http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-2
1083.html#0-0-0-1345 |
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 2 EB2C demand is constantly above 3K even in bad ecomony.
And there are more students than ever coming into US
every year. EB2C will remain the 2nd largest group in
EB2 category in foreseeable future and no way below 7%.
basically
%
PD
any
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】
: Corrections!
: The hr3012 amendments changed the allocation during 过渡期. Now 在过渡期,
: 设定了任何国家不能拿>85%剩余名额的限制
: so the analysis change to:
: 2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 0.85*0.85=72.25% india, leaves at most 12.75%
: to china
: 2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 0.9*0.85=76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to
: china
: 2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to china.
: still, we should be alarmed that there are no reserved visa number nor
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 3 棒子很有赶超的希望！
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: EB2C demand is constantly above 3K even in bad ecomony.
: And there are more students than ever coming into US
: every year. EB2C will remain the 2nd largest group in
: EB2 category in foreseeable future and no way below 7%.
:
: basically
: %
: PD
: any
|
c*********n
发帖数: 1371 | 4 从我们学校小本数量的增长趋势看，我觉得棒子玄。。。。。。。
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 棒子很有赶超的希望！
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 5 光看EB绿卡的话
棒子有几年是不逊老中的
中国人主要还是FB多
还有就是各种真的假的政治迫害绿卡多
【在 c*********n 的大作中提到】
: 从我们学校小本数量的增长趋势看，我觉得棒子玄。。。。。。。
|
c*********n
发帖数: 1371 | 6 根本问题是PD。
PD早的就先吃名额，这是这个法案的根本着力点。换句话说，只要你的PD比ROW早，那
不管是过渡期还是之后，都是你先吃名额，唯一的不同是过渡期内ROW还有15%可以吃。
关于15%。 牵扯到了category内部划分15%还是EB各个category一起分15%。但我趋向于
认为在执行时会将15%分在各个category内部，否则没法执行。哪条也没规定eb1可以有
优先级吃掉15%的所有名额。
basically
%
PD
any
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】
: Corrections!
: The hr3012 amendments changed the allocation during 过渡期. Now 在过渡期,
: 设定了任何国家不能拿>85%剩余名额的限制
: so the analysis change to:
: 2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 0.85*0.85=72.25% india, leaves at most 12.75%
: to china
: 2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 0.9*0.85=76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to
: china
: 2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to china.
: still, we should be alarmed that there are no reserved visa number nor
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 7 15%肯定是类别内部的，否则一整年都没名额，抱怨会很大。
【在 c*********n 的大作中提到】
: 根本问题是PD。
: PD早的就先吃名额，这是这个法案的根本着力点。换句话说，只要你的PD比ROW早，那
: 不管是过渡期还是之后，都是你先吃名额，唯一的不同是过渡期内ROW还有15%可以吃。
: 关于15%。 牵扯到了category内部划分15%还是EB各个category一起分15%。但我趋向于
: 认为在执行时会将15%分在各个category内部，否则没法执行。哪条也没规定eb1可以有
: 优先级吃掉15%的所有名额。
:
: basically
: %
: PD
|
S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 8 中国小本都是富二代官二代
要回去继续家族事业的
【在 c*********n 的大作中提到】
: 从我们学校小本数量的增长趋势看，我觉得棒子玄。。。。。。。
|
n****t
发帖数: 158 | 9 请问哪个条款规定了"Leaves at most 15% to china"? 请说说，谢谢。我怎么觉得85%
都给India，因为它的PD老。
basically
%
PD
any
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】
: Corrections!
: The hr3012 amendments changed the allocation during 过渡期. Now 在过渡期,
: 设定了任何国家不能拿>85%剩余名额的限制
: so the analysis change to:
: 2012 reserve 15% to ROW, 0.85*0.85=72.25% india, leaves at most 12.75%
: to china
: 2013 reserve 10% to ROW, 0.9*0.85=76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to
: china
: 2014 reserve 10% to ROW, 76.5% india, leaves at most 13.5% to china.
: still, we should be alarmed that there are no reserved visa number nor
|
s*****c
发帖数: 753 | 10 15% refers to total visa number for ROW. The allocation in each category is
still based on 203b which is unchanged.
【在 c*********n 的大作中提到】
: 根本问题是PD。
: PD早的就先吃名额，这是这个法案的根本着力点。换句话说，只要你的PD比ROW早，那
: 不管是过渡期还是之后，都是你先吃名额，唯一的不同是过渡期内ROW还有15%可以吃。
: 关于15%。 牵扯到了category内部划分15%还是EB各个category一起分15%。但我趋向于
: 认为在执行时会将15%分在各个category内部，否则没法执行。哪条也没规定eb1可以有
: 优先级吃掉15%的所有名额。
:
: basically
: %
: PD
|
|
|
N*******r
发帖数: 1098 | 11 老PD是中印混杂，当然烙印多多。但老中仍然会是这85% 的收益人。
FIFO无论如何都比现在的出生地歧视有道理。 |
c*********n
发帖数: 1371 | 12 我的感觉是3年以后，等烙印可能吃掉所以eb3的时候，国会肯定会通过另一个法案来阻
止这种事情发生。
dependent
natives
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】
: 15% refers to total visa number for ROW. The allocation in each category is
: still based on 203b which is unchanged.
|
s*****c
发帖数: 753 | 13 Maybe.
Remember, it is claimed that it will take 70 years to absorb all EB3I
currently. I am sure EB3I vastly outnumber EB3C. I hope this imbalance
does not occur on EB2 (hopefully EB2C can outnumber EB2I). Anyway, in
extreme circumstances, EB3C will be even worse under the new rule than
before.
【在 N*******r 的大作中提到】
: 老PD是中印混杂，当然烙印多多。但老中仍然会是这85% 的收益人。
: FIFO无论如何都比现在的出生地歧视有道理。
|
c*********n
发帖数: 1371 | 14 我认为罗富贵的amendment对烙印通吃的情况作限制了。
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】
: Maybe.
: Remember, it is claimed that it will take 70 years to absorb all EB3I
: currently. I am sure EB3I vastly outnumber EB3C. I hope this imbalance
: does not occur on EB2 (hopefully EB2C can outnumber EB2I). Anyway, in
: extreme circumstances, EB3C will be even worse under the new rule than
: before.
|
s*****c
发帖数: 753 | 15 Right, that is what I believe. However, it will not happen after 3 years,
maybe 6-7 years or more when the EB23ROW and EB3C's problem become obvious.
(say, it take 70 years for other EB3 to get green card). But I don't know
if they have enough voice to have new amendment.
【在 c*********n 的大作中提到】
: 我的感觉是3年以后，等烙印可能吃掉所以eb3的时候，国会肯定会通过另一个法案来阻
: 止这种事情发生。
:
: dependent
: natives
|
s*****c
发帖数: 753 | 16 Sorry, I didn't see the amendment changed the 70% of the total EB visa
number to 85% of the un-reserved.
However, the entire amendment applies to the transitional period only.
【在 c*********n 的大作中提到】
: 我认为罗富贵的amendment对烙印通吃的情况作限制了。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 17 ROW 最多15%, 单个国家最多70%，你觉得呢？
85%
【在 n****t 的大作中提到】
: 请问哪个条款规定了"Leaves at most 15% to china"? 请说说，谢谢。我怎么觉得85%
: 都给India，因为它的PD老。
:
: basically
: %
: PD
: any
|
r****x
发帖数: 1250 | 18 Can remember the exact numbers of approved EB green card, but are we sure
that China is "one of the two states with the largest numbers of natives
obtaining lawful permanent resident status during fiscal year 2010 under
such section 203(b)"?
When determining the two largest states, it's based on number of EB (section
203 (b)) green card approved in 2010, FB or other category not included,
right?
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 棒子很有赶超的希望！
|
s*****c
发帖数: 753 | 19 Sorry, I didn't read the amendment.
The amendment http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/10272011%20Lofgren%20Amdt3%20-%20PASSED%20by%20voice.pdf
now says, during the transitional period of 2012, 2013, and 2014, no single
country can get more than 85% of the un-reserved visa number.
So for 2012, 2013, 2014
15%, 10%, 10% for ROW
72%, 76.5%, 76.5% at most for either india or China, we believe it will
belong to india.
This leaves:
13%, 13.5%, 13.5% for China.
85%
【在 n****t 的大作中提到】
: 请问哪个条款规定了"Leaves at most 15% to china"? 请说说，谢谢。我怎么觉得85%
: 都给India，因为它的PD老。
:
: basically
: %
: PD
: any
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 20 That's correct, though for EB2, I think EB2C : EB2I is higher
than that ratio. Essentially, EB2C/I will be tied all along like
now and eating EB2 ROW's quota.
single
【在 s*****c 的大作中提到】
: Sorry, I didn't read the amendment.
: The amendment http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/10272011%20Lofgren%20Amdt3%20-%20PASSED%20by%20voice.pdf
: now says, during the transitional period of 2012, 2013, and 2014, no single
: country can get more than 85% of the un-reserved visa number.
: So for 2012, 2013, 2014
: 15%, 10%, 10% for ROW
: 72%, 76.5%, 76.5% at most for either india or China, we believe it will
: belong to india.
: This leaves:
: 13%, 13.5%, 13.5% for China.
|
|
|
m******a
发帖数: 1394 | 21 为什么老是说越来越多的留学生到美国，所以申请EB的人会越来越多。
工作职位并没有增多，H1B名额也还是那么多。 越来越多的留学生只能说明外国人找工作会越来越困难。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: EB2C demand is constantly above 3K even in bad ecomony.
: And there are more students than ever coming into US
: every year. EB2C will remain the 2nd largest group in
: EB2 category in foreseeable future and no way below 7%.
:
: basically
: %
: PD
: any
|
a***x
发帖数: 26368 | 22 困难倒未必。小留们想留下来的不会越来越多地。
【在 m******a 的大作中提到】
: 为什么老是说越来越多的留学生到美国，所以申请EB的人会越来越多。
: 工作职位并没有增多，H1B名额也还是那么多。 越来越多的留学生只能说明外国人找工作会越来越困难。
|
m******a
发帖数: 1394 | 23 现在的fresh graduate，连找到一个sponsor H1B的雇主都很难. 更不要说绿卡， 更不要说了EB2。。。
【在 a***x 的大作中提到】
: 困难倒未必。小留们想留下来的不会越来越多地。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 24 来得多，想要留下的就多。竞争之下拿到h1b的比例就高。
工作会越来越困难。
【在 m******a 的大作中提到】
: 为什么老是说越来越多的留学生到美国，所以申请EB的人会越来越多。
: 工作职位并没有增多，H1B名额也还是那么多。 越来越多的留学生只能说明外国人找工作会越来越困难。
|
m******a
发帖数: 1394 | 25 不论来多少，想要留下的多少，就是中国每年有一百万人来美国读书，这一百万人还是
得和别的国家的人一起抢那8万5的h1b名额。
所以说只要H1B名额不变，那对于EB来说就没有问题。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 来得多，想要留下的就多。竞争之下拿到h1b的比例就高。
:
: 工作会越来越困难。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 26 当然不是，来得人多，牛的人自然就多，抢H1B就有优势。
【在 m******a 的大作中提到】
: 不论来多少，想要留下的多少，就是中国每年有一百万人来美国读书，这一百万人还是
: 得和别的国家的人一起抢那8万5的h1b名额。
: 所以说只要H1B名额不变，那对于EB来说就没有问题。
|
a***x
发帖数: 26368 | 27 这倒也未必。
不要说了EB2。。。
【在 m******a 的大作中提到】
: 现在的fresh graduate，连找到一个sponsor H1B的雇主都很难. 更不要说绿卡， 更不要说了EB2。。。
|
d*******p
发帖数: 2525 | 28 其实啊，只要h1b数量不再变化，那么等几年把现在积压的清空后，不管绿卡怎么分配
，所有国家的h1b都基本够用了。
所以如果能有recapture的机会，那其实对所有职业移民都是最利好的消息，一个
recapture,到下次h1b名额增加以前，绿卡排期都根本不再是问题 |
