Y******u
发帖数: 1090 | 1 Can someone educate me on this ?
With more liquidity provided, both should drop significantly.
But they both rise today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=US0003M:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
I am puzzled. |
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 2 今天的消息， 是解决bank的liquidity的问题， 不是解决debt crisis.
EU meeting postpond decision for 10 days.
基本上， 一些eu countries注定要被抛弃了。
【在 Y******u 的大作中提到】
: Can someone educate me on this ?
: With more liquidity provided, both should drop significantly.
: But they both rise today.
: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=US0003M:IND
: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
: I am puzzled.
|
Y******u
发帖数: 1090 | 3 If liquidity is indeed increased, or promised to be increased, we should see
an easing on LIBOR. Eruodollar borrowing cost should get cheap. But it's not
happening.
The action by central banks, in my understanding, is to provide cushions to
the banks so that they can maintain their liquidity at lower cost. The
deleveraging will keep going. Long term trend (for the coming months) may
not be changed.
Da Niu make some comments?
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 今天的消息， 是解决bank的liquidity的问题， 不是解决debt crisis.
: EU meeting postpond decision for 10 days.
: 基本上， 一些eu countries注定要被抛弃了。
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 4 agree with u,
global QE出来的背景是深刻的危机， 严重到０８年的程度， 所以才会有这个
action.
QE的效果和危机的深刻程度， 还需要观察。
市场崩溃的风险并没有完全消除。
不过中短期内， 应该是可以跑一阵了。
see
not
to
【在 Y******u 的大作中提到】
: If liquidity is indeed increased, or promised to be increased, we should see
: an easing on LIBOR. Eruodollar borrowing cost should get cheap. But it's not
: happening.
: The action by central banks, in my understanding, is to provide cushions to
: the banks so that they can maintain their liquidity at lower cost. The
: deleveraging will keep going. Long term trend (for the coming months) may
: not be changed.
: Da Niu make some comments?
|
Y******u
发帖数: 1090 | 5 Actually, it is not equivalent to QE. It is providing easier access to
already existing QE to the European banks.
Those central banks could print their own currencies if they want to.
Borrowing more USD is not going to save their currency.
For European banks, easier access to borrowing USD gives them extra cushion
if they collapse, but it won't raise their capital ratio.
And it does nothing for the governments of PIIGS.
To me, this action is like providing a heart pump to someone whose house is on fire.
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: agree with u,
: global QE出来的背景是深刻的危机， 严重到０８年的程度， 所以才会有这个
: action.
: QE的效果和危机的深刻程度， 还需要观察。
: 市场崩溃的风险并没有完全消除。
: 不过中短期内， 应该是可以跑一阵了。
:
: see
: not
: to
|
Y******u
发帖数: 1090 | 6 Some analysis on Business insider
http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-is-dying-and-the-worlds-c
Note that it is now cheaper for foreign banks to borrow dollars from
their local banks than it is for US banks to borrow dollars from the Fed, so
we could see a 25bp cut in the discount window in the coming days to level
the playing field.
Again, we look at this facility as eliminating the liquidity element of
LIBOR (banks don't need to be as afraid of lending term because they know
they have a backstop liquidity source that won't be that expensive, which
means the money market curve stays flatter) rather than thinking that LIBOR
will move all the way to the new ceiling. So we think LIBOR can still creep
a bit higher than spot, but it will be difficult to get higher than 60bp.
In addition, the other central banks are setting up bilateral lines (
sterling for Euros, etc) , although we don't expect those facilities to be
used in anywhere near the size of the dollar facilities so we don't expect
any significant impact.
This is a very big deal if you are trading Eurodollar contracts as the
Fed was more aggressive (we thought they would go to OIS+75bps rather than
OIS+50bps), but it doesn't change any of the fundamental issues in Europe.
The major help to risk assets is that those investors no longer will need to
see LIBOR rise relentlessly (and it should make year-end a little less
messy), but we don't think this is a real game-changer.
Read more: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/11/worlds-central-bankers-hand-dying-europe-a-band-aid/249265/#ixzz1fDKxvpXJ |
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 7 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/central-banks-rescue-todays-actio
这篇帖子基本上解释了这个输出性QE的工作原理
In the first place, European banks are major lenders to the US corporate
market. When they cannot participate in dollar loans to US companies, US
credit also contracts. What's more, these are loans to the ECB, which is
unlikely to default. Finally, the Fed isn't lending out "taxpayer dollars"
at all. Rather, it is lending out newly created dollars at very low interest
rates.
That doesn't mean that US taxpayers are not risk here, of course. The new
dollars have the potential to spark inflation-which could result in higher
interest rates and higher taxes as the government combats inflation. But in
the current economic environment, the risk of inflation is very slight. |
Y******u
发帖数: 1090 | 8 Then the next question is, why do we ever need ECB? |
Y******u
发帖数: 1090 | 9 Thanks. It is definitely printing new money. I agree.
interest
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/central-banks-rescue-todays-actio
: 这篇帖子基本上解释了这个输出性QE的工作原理
: In the first place, European banks are major lenders to the US corporate
: market. When they cannot participate in dollar loans to US companies, US
: credit also contracts. What's more, these are loans to the ECB, which is
: unlikely to default. Finally, the Fed isn't lending out "taxpayer dollars"
: at all. Rather, it is lending out newly created dollars at very low interest
: rates.
: That doesn't mean that US taxpayers are not risk here, of course. The new
: dollars have the potential to spark inflation-which could result in higher
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 10 作为fed qe的一个缓冲
【在 Y******u 的大作中提到】
: Then the next question is, why do we ever need ECB?
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 11 大本还是按捺不住啊
国内压力太大， 就搞global的
【在 Y******u 的大作中提到】
: Thanks. It is definitely printing new money. I agree.
:
: interest
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 12 所以fundamental没有改变不重要。
美元贬值和借贷成本降低就够股市跑一阵子了。
今天是dressing day, 过几天如果有回调， 还是可以果断的上写中期仓。
【在 Y******u 的大作中提到】
: Thanks. It is definitely printing new money. I agree.
:
: interest
|
Y******u
发帖数: 1090 | 13 Now I have the answer.
It is only for emergency, when LIBOR is reaching the ceiling.
It's a life boat that is expected to save your life, your ship is going to
sink anyway.
【在 Y******u 的大作中提到】
: Can someone educate me on this ?
: With more liquidity provided, both should drop significantly.
: But they both rise today.
: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=US0003M:IND
: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
: I am puzzled.
|
