s*******t
发帖数: 335 | 1 Operator expects to plug well within 24 hours
* Leak began while company was attempting permanent plug
(Reuters) - An inactive natural gas well in the shallow Gulf of Mexico
suffered a blowout on Tuesday as operators were trying to permanently plug
the well, causing an oil sheen that briefly rekindled memories of the BP Plc
spill three years ago.
Houston-based Talos Energy LLC said it was in the process of shutting the
inactive Ship Shoal 225 B-2 well when natural gas and condensate began
flowin... 阅读全帖 |
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m******e
发帖数: 536 | 2 This morning ENB just lost 0.43 cents, i.e., -1.04%. There is a negative
news report juct coming out this morning regarding environmental concerns
against Canadian Oil firms' latest expansion plan.
main excerpt on ENB
Quote "Enbridge Inc. (ENB, ENB.T) faces a wall of aboriginal opposition to
its proposed Northern Gateway pipeline in British Columbia"
Companies Struggle to Balance Aboriginal Needs and Industry -- Globe & Mail
8:15a ET December 9, 2013 (Dow Jones)
Companies Struggle to Balance Abo... 阅读全帖 |
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a**********2
发帖数: 355 | 3 NY ROUNDUP – Wednesday, April 2, 2014
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
COMMENTS
· Equities put in another day for the faithful and make new highs
yet again. The bourses came cruising out of the gate following consensus ADP
numbers and positive revisions as investors focused their sights on the end
-of-week employment metrics. The good spirit was almost universally felt as
all but one sector finish in the green (Utilities small -0.16%). SPX and
Nasdaq now +2.5% for the year, while DJIA is back to flat. C... 阅读全帖 |
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f**********n
发帖数: 299 | 4 trade with crude, and crude to 40ish, too much pain |
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s********n
发帖数: 151 | 5 if in California, it might be the effect of cap and trade, something about
emission control. It only affects gasoline price, not crude, and only in
california. In late Feb, changing into summer formula will cost the price to
go up a bit, too. But again, only gasoline, not crude. |
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o****3
发帖数: 5100 | 6 Is there any stock related to crude oil?
It is difficult to see the correlation between crude and oil company. |
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w*****8
发帖数: 703 | 9 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/oil-s-1986-collapse-si
oversupply vs. low-demand, the difference???
Shale gas/oil technology will easily survive the recent crude crash. With
consolidation in energy sector,it may be unlikely for crude to go back to
the historically high price because of the long-term supply-demand balance
shifts toward over-supply side. There are vast amount of shale gas and oil
reserve around world, including China.
Dismal global economy will unlikely drive a surge of o... 阅读全帖 |
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s**h
发帖数: 477 | 10 看下面新闻的数据,美国石油storage capacity 60%满了, commercial storage 75%满
了,等都全满了看来还要有一次暴跌
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/25/why-oil-prices
One final collapse?
In the long run -- barring an unexpected intervention by OPEC -- oil prices
will stabilize around the marginal long-run cost of production (including
the cost of capital spending). This level is almost certainly higher than
the current price, but well below the $100 a barrel level that's been common
since 2011.
However, things could get... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******5
发帖数: 170 | 11 是refinery罢工啊。。。看来crude堆积如山，下游厂商超负荷运转压力过大啊。。。
这下好了，堆在那的crude越来越多出不掉。。。明天油价要下去了 |
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t*******5
发帖数: 170 | 12 U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.3 million barrels from the previous week.
At 413.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest
level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.
继续堆积如山，大家怎么看？朝U型底的第二个底部进发？ |
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l*l
发帖数: 2043 | 13 refinery strike? 这个对crude oil价格会有啥影响呢？ 没人去refine会导致crude
oil库存增加从而价格下跌？ 不懂等大牛现身 |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 14 赞分析， 比午饭贴多些营养。
不过brent vs crude spread 这个理解很像有点问题， 当然还得请石油大拿来讲解一
哈。 我的狗狗结论是简单的说brent-国际通用的油价， crude-美国本地油价。 就是
oklahoma汇聚地的油价。 这个spread大说明美国当地的油价比国际市场上的低， 因为
运不出去。 应该说的是美国的油矿即便油价这么低， 产量并没减。 国际油价因为需
求稳定或预期上涨(china)暂时稳定。 |
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m*****g
发帖数: 3029 | 15 1 US has crude export ban
2 dry shit has no crude tanker |
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o****x
发帖数: 287 | 17 PBR is decided by the crude price and the Brazilian Real to USD exchange
rate.
assuming WTI and Brent trend together,
if WTI goes down, assuming the currency exchange rate holds steady, then the
PBR will go down together with crude.
of course, political climate excluded in the above analysis. |
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k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 18 Refining crack spread 是重要calling crude bottom 的leading indicator之一。
上个月crude反弹的时候 spread widening 差不多$12-$14左右 一月份spread 一度接
近于零 有一天我记得是负的。这个月一直在收缩现在 $9-$10左右。但是在那些oil
basin 特别是Bakken之类的 可能也就 $5-$7左右。而且估计crack spread 短期还要有
下行风险 因为春天是US refiners capacity turnaround/ outage 的季节 。加上
heating oil需求下降，Cushing inventory 升高，对WTI的整体压力很大。对油价短期
是很大阻
力。 |
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k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 19 短期的趋势向下的。刚才API weekly crude inventory 出来了 好像 Cushing
inventory build还是很高 要是明天EIA的report 确认这个，油还是要下挫的。crack
spread 短期之内大概也不太行，US rig count 减少的速度每个礼拜也就那样了， 就
看USD的走向了。要是明天Yellen是dovish, 推迟市场加息预期，也许USD能走弱。然后
就是看看利比亚伊朗有没有什么超出预期的事件。还有寄希望于short selling
traders能cover short, take profit？估计短期之内不太可能 他们大部分人短期下
看 $30多，大概一旦crude 有一些rebound 他们更倾向于press the short. |
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c********a
发帖数: 111 | 20 估计是WLL要价太高了。
同意现在USD对油价的影响比较有限，主要是 crude FA和TA在短期都是bearish为主。
crude
HES |
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k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 21 因为现在WTI和Brent 价格浮动密切相关 （前面解释过）。WTI价格现在走向的市场焦
点之一是 US Cushing inventory (前面也解释过）。 对于世界油价和美国油价来说
现在最重要的问题是supply side。这个只有OPEC和美国是最重要的，还有一些
geopolitical的国家叙利亚伊朗这样的。OPEC明确表示近期不减产，压力都在美国减产
，inventory是confirm美国减产足够多的重要指标之一。欧洲和亚洲都不是主要产油国
它们用Brent计价，对油价的影响是在demand side。欧洲作为一个整体对Brent
demand有比较大影响 但是 德法这样单独的国家不 move the needle。
中国是亚洲主要买家 很重要。它的 crude reserve 前几年都比较低 因为Brent很贵
还有中国自己的经济不景气。它更多的是opportunistic buyer在油价相对走弱的时候
。最近几个月中国在大量买油，最近也有一些报道说中国的crude reserve 大幅上升，
也不能无限的买下去。这对Brent price是个坏消息。
就像前面D... 阅读全帖 |
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k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 22 如果油价底确认，并且市场比较明确反弹的timing和幅度，XES相对于XLE，从TA
的角度上 short covering potential 更大 更容易squeeze higher。
像刚才讲的 三个ETF主要成分股的FA层面上 XES相对最弱 但是从TA来看它的beta和
short interest 也相对比较高，所以对油价浮动比XLE敏感很多。
我觉得 如果短期油价看升 XES会跑赢XLE 主要是TA的原因，如果短期油价看跌 或是觉
得油价在一定时期内是个L型的，XLE比较稳比XES强。我同意你的看法 - 短期油价看跌
的话，XES比XOP可能更volatile 下行风险更大 因为它的FA在3个ETF中最弱，TA上更容
易被press the short。XOP的主要成份股相对来说FA比较好 它们之中很多股票的底都
出来了 是机构投资者在当前形势下愿意持有的 在油价反弹时愿意加仓的，还有就是这
个ETF在TA上看也比较有momentum。
XOP要outperform，对油价反弹的幅度要求没有XES那么高。如果crude是V型rebound,
XES 可能跑赢XOP，如果是... 阅读全帖 |
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c********a
发帖数: 111 | 24 http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/236473-house-panel
House lawmakers will vote next week on a bill that would lift the 40-year-
old ban on crude oil exports.
The House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on trade said Friday that will meet
March 25 to debate the bill sponsored by Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas) and vote
on it.
It will be the first time in recent years that lawmakers have voted on a
proposal to lift the ban, enacted in 1975 to protect the country from the
Arab oil embargo.Barton in... 阅读全帖 |
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k*********2
发帖数: 98 | 25 刚看到的消息，Saudi已经在也门开始air strike，美东时间7点开始的，得到美国支持
了。Saudi说有10个国家（包括一些海湾国家）参加联合空袭。Saudi和Iran在也门有很
大利益冲突，主要是Saudi说Iran支持Houthi rebels。这两个国家也是global crude
supply的焦点。还有也门控制的 oil chokepoint of Bab el-Mandad 主导很大一部分
中东到亚洲 非洲的海上石油运输 （crude tankers）。 Saudi肯定要争夺。WSJ刚刚说
WTI和Brent futures rallied after Saudi launched the air strike in Yemen. |
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g*******e
发帖数: 3013 | 26 • U.S. crude oil inventories rose 12.2M barrels last week, according
to the API, up from 5.2M barrels the previous and week and against
expectations for a 3M barrel gain.
• The EIA reports its numbers tomorrow morning.
• WTI crude oil is lower by 0.8% to $53.13 in per barrel in after
hours action following about a 3% gain in the regular session to its highest
level of 2015.
• USO -1.2% after hours. |
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t*******i
发帖数: 4960 | 27 Proshares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil Bull 2x ETF UCO
VelocityShares Crude Bull 3x ETN UWTI
好像不一样。 |
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a****o
发帖数: 6612 | 28 I bet when the crude inventory starts to drop, the price will try to break
64 - 65. Sure it will drop again since crude inventory is still high. |
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C********N
发帖数: 1263 | 29 请问dwti是做什么的呀？
是三倍看空油价吗？ 请大牛指导。
VelocityShares 3X Inverse Crude ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index
Excess Return(NYSEARCA:DWTI |
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g****d
发帖数: 3461 | 30 美元涨是什么意思？
Crude/USD 是油价本身
Gold/USD 是金价
CAD/USD 是加元
JPY/USD 是日元
SP500/USD 是股票指数
好像就是没有美元的价格。
我说crude可能去75，你信么？ |
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K**e
发帖数: 56 | 31 Iran and USA negotiation may have the last punch on the crude oil price. The
WTI price $50/barrel is not sustainable and it can not stay around $50/
barrel for months. Looking at the move of energy sector and crude oil, we
may see the bottom or they should be bottoming.
Your money your decision. |
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t*******i
发帖数: 4960 | 32 反着看
The oil price chart suggests that prices could trade between $50 and $55 per
barrel. Goldman Sachs estimates that prices could hit $45 per barrel by
October 2015—led by oversupply and the strong dollar. The EIA (U.S. Energy
Information Administration) estimates that WTI crude oil prices will average
$55 per barrel in 2015. Crude oil prices could rebound due to bottom
fishing. |
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s**h
发帖数: 477 | 33 Crude inventories fell by 7.3 million barrels. Crude stocks at Cushing,
Oklahoma rose by 420,000 barrels. |
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b***s
发帖数: 809 | 34 U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum
Reserve) decreased by 4.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 461.4
million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this
time of year in at
least the last 80 years. |
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t*******i
发帖数: 4960 | 35 Weekly crude stocks off 1.9 million bbls
Weekly crude stocks at Cushing off 381K bbls
Weekly distillate stocks up 4.3 mln bbls |
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t*******i
发帖数: 4960 | 36 我只是把信息贴在这里。
高盛说的话要自己解读。
The price of oil could be stuck firmly at around $50 a barrel by 2020, a
Goldman Sachs analyst told CNBC, raising new fears about the energy
companies that have already started to cut costs, projects and jobs to cope
with falling revenues.
Several big oil and gas companies announced this week they intend to make
cutbacks to stay afloat in this sinking environment. Royal Dutch Shell
expects to cut 6,500 jobs, 6,000 for Centrica, and at Chevron, a 2 percent
slash to its glo... 阅读全帖 |
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C*K
发帖数: 400 | 37 Asia crude trade hits record volume on Chinese oil giants' deals
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/48328963.cms
SINGAPORE: Trade volume in Asia's crude market hit a daily record on Monday
after close to 6 million barrels of Dubai partials were sold to meet strong
demand from a Chinese trader, traders said.
Chinaoil, the trading arm of PetroChina Co Ltd swept up most of the partials
from fellow Chinese state trader Unipec during the Platts Market on Close
price assessment process, t... 阅读全帖 |
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u********3
发帖数: 3785 | 38 In crude oil, market intelligence firm Genscape added to positive sentiment
by estimating a draw of nearly 810,000 barrels in the week ending Sept. 15
from storage tanks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the main delivery point for U.S.
crude futures, according to traders who have seen the data.
这个大概解释了今天的涨势。
这样来说这波涨势应该能持续到周三，看看明天的API就大概有数了。
不过美国这几个礼拜连续draw down是什么意思，有点看不懂。进口基本稳定，炼油厂
利用率在下降，为何石油储量反而在下降。 |
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M***n
发帖数: 5815 | 41 DBO的说明写的是
The Fund seeks to track the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index-Optimum
Yield Crude Oil Excess Return which is intended to reflect the changes in
market value of crude oil.
就是说它跟踪的是在荷兰银行的证券交易所交易的原油，不是WTI |
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u********3
发帖数: 3785 | 42 我现在发现，每天早上打开电脑先搜索crude oil和OPEC的新闻，大概可以感觉到当天
交易的sentiment，用这个sentiment来指导交易，成功率会提高一些。
今天早上没有什么关于crude oil的负面新闻，正面新闻有OPEC和non-OPEC member 正
在study委内瑞拉召开紧急会议的提案。
综合下来看今天的sentiment 牛>熊，这大概也解释了为什么EIA之前WTI反而涨到了44.
6左右
开盘前来看，
sentiment：牛 略大于 熊
技术面上，天线趋势不明，4H，1H线都还有上涨空间，牛 大于 熊
如果EIA报告偏牛，今天WTI应该会起飞，如果偏熊，暂时就不好说了，不知道
sentiment会怎么改变，不知道目前opec study proposal这个消息有多大能量。
换位思考的话，如果我是熊，看到这个消息，我可能会收敛一点，不会很贪心，及时
take profit。也就说今天即使下跌，大跌的几率也比较低，43这个range border也许
能hold住。 |
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g******n
发帖数: 1536 | 43 不知道为何油价暴涨
这是这个星期的数据
Crude Oil (Excluding SPR) 455.9
Motor Gasoline 217.4
Distillate Fuel Oil 154.0
这是上三个星期的数据
Crude Oil (Excluding SPR) 458.0 455.4 358.6
Motor Gasoline 214.5 214.2 212.4
Distillate Fuel Oil 150.9 150.0 127.5
和上个星期比，虽然原油库存减少了2.1，可是汽油和燃油库存分别大幅度增加了2.9和
3.1
特别是汽油的库存增加不是什么好事情。。。 |
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M***n
发帖数: 5815 | 44 What is it about USL that drove the outperformance? Even though USL and USO
both track WTI light, sweet crude, USL is designed to track the daily
changes in the average prices of the near month futures contract as well as
the contracts for the 11 months that follow the near month contract. When a
futures curve spends a lot of time in contango (months further out on the
curve trade at a higher price), it is generally beneficial to own a product
that tracks the average of 12 months of contracts ra... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 45 OPEC is at war - and it's sending shockwaves around the world
By Matt Egan @mattmegan5
Crude truth behind oil's global boom
OPEC is broken.
Oil prices fell below $40 a barrel on Friday after a 7-hour OPEC meeting in
Vienna highlighted the deep divide within the cartel.
OPEC surprised observers by failing to agree on an official output quota,
leaving production near record highs despite the massive glut keeping prices
low.
"The cartel is basically broken," said Matthew Smith, director of commod... 阅读全帖 |
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u********3
发帖数: 3785 | 46 胆战心惊在API以后买入了两个Long contract， 4月份合约＠38.32…..
这个汽油和分馏油的库存增加是什么鬼。。。
U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels
Crude stocks at Cushing up by 1.4 million barrels
Gasoline stocks rose by 7.1 million barrels
Distillate fuels stocks rose by 5.6 million barrels
产出远远超过消耗？进口的？不然怎么解释这个现象？谁知道，麻烦指点下，谢谢。 |
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u********3
发帖数: 3785 | 47 U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels
Crude stocks at Cushing up by 1.4 million barrels
Gasoline stocks rose by 7.1 million barrels
Distillate fuels stocks rose by 5.6 million barrels |
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a*****e
发帖数: 2503 | 48 depends on when you start to follow them, they used to call crude $200 when
crude price was $140. Then,... there is no then..... |
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m*******v
发帖数: 294 | 49 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oman-says-its-prepared-to-slas
Oman is the first major non-OPEC oil producer to say it would slash its
output in coordination with other countries, as the resumption of Iranian
exports of crude weighed heavily on oil prices on Monday.
Oman would be ready to cut 5% to 10% of its total crude oil production, if
other producers were willing to do the same to stabilize the oil market,
said Mohammad bin Hamad al-Rumhy, Oman’s oil minister, on the sidelines of
a confere... 阅读全帖 |
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l*w
发帖数: 567 | 50 US 出口这点油可以忽略不计。
而且文章说了，美国出口油不划算，目前对市场啥也不影响。
Just a year ago American oil would have been a hot seller on the global
stage. It was trading about $12 a barrel cheaper than Brent crude, the
global standard. That means European buyers would have been willing to front
the heavy costs involved with shipping oil across the Atlantic.
But that's changed. U.S. oil prices are now just $1 or $2 a barrel cheaper
than Brent. "The economics don't entirely work for U.S. crude to be traded
everywhere in the worl... 阅读全帖 |
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