i*****r
发帖数: 1302 | 1 举个例子
Y X
10% 5%
5% 10%
-10% -5%
-5% -10%
10% 5%
5% 10%
-10% -5%
-5% -10%
10% 5%
5% 10%
-10% -5%
-5% -10%
过程结果
downside correlation, downside beta |
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P**********e
发帖数: 2964 | 2 The Downside to the Recovery of the Ozone Hole
Amanda DeMatto
OurAmazingPlanet Contributor
LiveScience.com Amanda Dematto
ouramazingplanet Contributor
livescience.com – Thu Jul 1, 4:55 pm ET
While the hole in the Earth's protective ozone layer is slowly healing, its
recovery might have a downside, scientists say: Climate change could change
wind patterns and send ozone from high in the atmosphere down to the surface
, where it is a major component of smog.
The discovery of a hole in the ozone la |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 3 I'd bet on the downside just to respect the chart... |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 4 【 以下文字转载自 TraderSuccess 俱乐部 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: TraderSuccess
标 题: Stocks Being Tracked For Potential Downside
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 28 12:48:25 2011, 美东)
Need to use uptrend line to help trigger and
pinpoint price peak:
RHT, 20110325, 46.5600, -4.9484, -10.6
MELI, 20110325, 74.2000, -5.0402, -6.8
CRM, 20110325, 128.0000, -5.2334, -4.1
FFIV, 20110325, 95.6700, -5.2341, -5.5
CMG, 20110325, 256.2400, -5.5341, -2.2
BWEL... 阅读全帖 |
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g**S
发帖数: 116 | 5 Buy UVXY at 52 week low! Limited Downside, Huge Upside (80%+) ! |
|
发帖数: 1 | 6 Jim Cramer was intrigued by DoubleLine Capital's founder Jeffrey
Gundlach's commentary that the recent rally in stocks was simply a small
rally within a very large bear market.
"I just don't want you to lose sight that a guy like Gundlach isn&#
39;t really addressing you, the individual investor, when he says the stock
market has 2 percent upside and 20 percent downside. He was simply trying to
make the point that the market might be more dangerous than you think,"
the "Mad Money"... 阅读全帖 |
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b*******r
发帖数: 6655 | 7 While the hole in the Earth's protective ozone layer is slowly healing,
its recovery might have a downside, scientists say: Climate change could
change wind patterns and send ozone from high in the atmosphere down to
the surface, where it is a major component of smog.
大张旗鼓的禁用CFC,最后发现上帝放一个屁就把臭氧洞补上了, 补上了不算, 又来smog
,看来赶紧重
新再启用CFC是正道 |
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w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 8 想抄底的同学最好还是多存钱吧。
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254354/the_dismal_out
The Dismal Outlook for the US and Global Economy and the Financial Markets
Email PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati Nouriel Roubini | Nov 11, 2008
Here is a below brief summary of many of the points that I have made for the
last few months on the outlook for the U.S. and global economy and for
financial markets:
The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since WWII, much worse
and longer and... 阅读全帖 |
|
u****d
发帖数: 23938 | 9 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
caoy (caoy) 于 (Thu May 26 11:20:06 2011, 美东) 提到:
这个策略是我翻译网上的: (未名发帖也太烂了, 总是断行)
比如你50块买的股票, 现在跌到40了,你最好的挽救这艘沉船的方法
就是用ratio call spread策略. 这个策略适合你的损失从-10%到-50%不等.
如果下面股票开始涨了, 你能迅速回本, 但是继续跌的话, 就跟你原来持有一样.
也即买1个at the money, 40块的call, 同时卖2个45块的call(这个strike 45的
选择,一般是40加上你损失的一半(也即50-40=10的一半,5),
使得买/卖call的成本基本互相抵消.
之所以叫ratio call spread, 是因为买1份call, 卖2份call, 比例ratio是1:2,
叫spread,是因为有同时有买和卖.
一般从2个月到期的call开始选, 使得买卖call的成本相抵消,
最长到1年. 因为时间太短的话, 没法使买卖call的成本相互... 阅读全帖 |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 10 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:13:00 2010, 美东) 提到:
RT
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Tue Nov 16 18:24:25 2010, 美东) 提到:
发信人: tanmaomao (坛猫猫), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 铀价格走势图 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 16 18:23:29 2010, 美东)
Ux U3O8 Price indicator is the longest-running weekly uranium price series,
used by the industry in sales contracts
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
tanmaomao (坛猫猫) 于 (Wed Nov 17 09:34:37 20... 阅读全帖 |
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j****y
发帖数: 1714 | 11 don't mix insurance and investment
http://whitecoatinvestor.com/dont-mix-insurance-and-investing/
A wise physician will have a solid insurance plan and a solid investing plan
. But she shouldn’t mix the two. Remember the combination TV/VCRs?
Seemed like a great idea initially. But then you ended up with the worst of
both worlds, and when one of them broke, the other became useless. It’s
the same with investing. Instead of providing some kind of synergy by
mixing the two, you end up with th... 阅读全帖 |
|
j****y
发帖数: 1714 | 12 don't mix insurance and investment
http://whitecoatinvestor.com/dont-mix-insurance-and-investing/
A wise physician will have a solid insurance plan and a solid investing plan
. But she shouldn’t mix the two. Remember the combination TV/VCRs?
Seemed like a great idea initially. But then you ended up with the worst of
both worlds, and when one of them broke, the other became useless. It’s
the same with investing. Instead of providing some kind of synergy by
mixing the two, you end up with th... 阅读全帖 |
|
a*****y
发帖数: 33185 | 13 我觉得板上的主流结论应该是：回国有很多downsides,以及这些downsides具体是什么？
而这篇文章里面对这些也都提到了。
就算说回国就完蛋，那也应该说是海归如果不懂行情，不接地气，不知道这些
downsides就归，那确实会完蛋。 |
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n*******s
发帖数: 149 | 14 Applying a 100% weighting to Sina Weibo as a social network, our Sina
valuation would rise to about $165, implying about 16% upside.
On the other hand, our $105 target price implies 26% downside.
Applying a 100% weighting to Sina Weibo as a social media gives a
valuation
of $79 and implies 45% downside.
Our DCF valuation for Weibo (based on standalone financials rather
than
benchmarking its user base against other platforms) implies $1.2bn valuation
($18 per share) for... 阅读全帖 |
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t*********e
发帖数: 313 | 15 http://www.cnbc.com/id/44068981。 宁可信其有
“Downside targets on the Dow are 10600 with a long-term potential at 9700.
Downside targets on the Nasdaq are 2370 (already exceeded) with longer-term
targets near 2100. Downside targets on the S&P 500 are 1130 (already
exceeded) with longer-term targets between 950 and 1000.” |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 16 None of the 柯达/两房/aig/c/bac/enron worth the risk when they were in the
downward spiral. You can find pros and cons for any stock any any time. The
questions is whether the downside are limited or protected.
Having said that, there are always opportunities when there is crisis. When
AIG was getting to $2 and BAC was approaching $3 in 2008-2009, the
opportunities were not in the common stock. There was real possibility that
both AIG and BAC were going down the toilet.
The opportunities were in the... 阅读全帖 |
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 17 You guys pay too much attention to the downside of demoracy. Not paying
enough attetion to the downsides of dictatorship. |
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 18 Because American officials do not have much power, they will have a hard
time
to be corrupted.
That is the choice of ppl la.
If you want to a strong government, the downside is that the government can
be easily corrupted.
If you don't want to a strong government. The officials are not easily
corrupted.
The downside is the government can not do many things either.
American ppl happen to believe in the weak government. |
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d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 19 国内资产价格太高，预期回报率低，downside risk比upside更高，相对于欧洲的机会
，欧洲前几年资产价格大跌，现在的预期回报率高，欧洲的downside risk非常小，从
资产组合角度来说，当然要shift 资产到欧洲。
不知道李嘉诚不shift资产到美国的理由是什么？估计要么是他对欧洲比较熟，对美国
相对没有那么熟，另外一点更重要的原因，美国投资有政治风险，李嘉诚喜欢基本产业
，美国国会总是block他的投资，不能投资美国的通信行当和basic utility。所以没有
办法，只能买欧洲便宜的资产。
李嘉诚的策略一直是房地产，或者其他基本utility，比较能预测的行当。
对小散户来说，李嘉诚都这么做了，说明中国房地产确实今后增长会放缓，如果主要资
产在房产和其他utility的，那也应该考虑撤；如果主要资产在国内价格比较低的行当
，自己又有点内部消息，那也不一定急着撤。 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 20 by Rick aka Mr. Brutally Honest
Victor Davis Hanson is painting things so clearly as to this President's
character that only the completely obtuse would miss the point being made:
Former president Bill Clinton just appeared in a reelection television
commercial for President Barack Obama. At one point, Clinton weighs in on
the potential consequences of Obama’s decision to go ahead with the planned
assassination of Osama bin Laden. He smiles and then pontificates, “
Suppose the Navy SEALs had... 阅读全帖 |
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R***a
发帖数: 41892 | 21 the downside is when you dont have 7 ppl in car.
for 7 ppl, it is still better.
and the main reason I choose odyssey is I am will pay for the extra legroom
on 3rd row, which tc/gc can't give me.
for those don't care for 3rd row legroom, gc/tc is a solid choice
downside |
|
W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 22 What's New for 2016
The 2016 Grand Cherokee gets a new shift lever that physically remains in
the selected position, while the 3.6-liter gasoline V6 receives standard
automatic stop-start technology along with variable valve timing and lift to
incrementally improve fuel economy and horsepower. All trims except the SRT
gets standard electric-assist power steering (with adjustable effort), and
weight reductions across the lineup come courtesy of additional aluminum
suspension components. Finally, ... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******v
发帖数: 2599 | 23 来自主题: ChinaStock版 - 为什么卖？ 你不知道有时间窗口回滚统计，或者各种带forgetting factor的filter吗。
大盘的downside risk一直都在变。现在downside risk已经下降不少了。
但还是没达到我的要求。 |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 24 If you are really concerned about your investment (or speculation) and
want to have limit downside. Use the collar strategy.
Buy stock at 100, buy leap 95put and sell 105call, usually they are about
the same price. So you limit your upside and downside to 5%. You can
also pay a premimum to buy 100p and sell 105c or 110c. |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 25 then no downside protection.
However, if it passes 10% and 0% twice, it gets twice the downside
protection.
Of course, ETF cannot mimic option strategies completely. But
something similar is reasonably good bah... The main merit is
"cheap". |
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o*****c
发帖数: 241 | 26 here are some arguments from me.
upsides:
FA: PE Ratio, Factory Orders, ISM, Ted Spread, Yield Curve, M2 Money Supply,
CPI, GDP, Consumer Confidence.
SA: VIX, AAII Survey
TA: TICKS, New Highs/Lows, Breadth, Momentum Thrusts, Counter Trend
Downsides:
FA: Corporate Yields, 10 Yr Yields
TA: Longterm Trend, Some Patterns, Volume
Cautions are needed, but overall, upsides still beat downsides. Let's ride
SP 10% more bah. hehe |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 27 If you google, you will find many such services, all can be done online
easily.
There are two different approaches to it -
a) You ask the tenant to give you his/her SS# (and the fee) so you can run
the report by yourself (e.g. ctcredit.net). The downside: since you have
someone else's SS#, it comes with potential liabilities.
b) You let the tenant do it him/herself (and pay the fee directly), you get
a copy of the report (e.g. mysmartmove.com). The downside is you won't get
the tenant's SS# w... 阅读全帖 |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 28 As a small business owner with employees, you can try SEP-IRA, it's very
easy to set up and required little paperwork. The downside is you can't
contribute much.
If you want to contribute more, you can consider SIMPLE-IRA. The downside is
more paperwork will be required. |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 29 As a small business owner with employees, you can try SEP-IRA, it's very
easy to set up and required little paperwork. The downside is you can't
contribute much.
If you want to contribute more, you can consider SIMPLE-IRA. The downside is
more paperwork will be required. |
|
发帖数: 1 | 30 不知道讨论的人里有多少是买过structured notes的？我本人是对这行非常了解。
Structured notes可以设计的很复杂，很tricky，很危险，可以是有downside
leverage,在市场下跌的时候有加速的亏损，也有link to CMS甚至proprietary index
(比如摩根大通的efficiente指数）这些非常不透明的指数的。（btw, CMS stands for
constant maturity swap, 如果你不明白这是什么，最好不要碰和CMS相关的产品）
可是，structured notes也可以设计得很稳妥，比如有很大的downside protection，
比较常见的是５年期只要SPX不跌５０％就还本。SPX 5year rolling period return
过去几十年有没有跌过５０％？最多一次跌多少，有没有人计算过呢？很多money
manager算过，所以他们自己也买了structured notes.
一个60岁的老太太，是买5%的annuity，到头来本金一分不剩，还是买一些bonds和
structured ... 阅读全帖 |
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d******s
发帖数: 113 | 31 有什么好的structure note推荐吗？link to SP500的，有下跌保护的。return低点也
可以。
: 不知道讨论的人里有多少是买过structured notes的？我本人是对这行非常了解。
: Structured notes可以设计的很复杂，很tricky，很危险，可以是有downside
: leverage,在市场下跌的时候有加速的亏损，也有link to CMS甚至proprietary
index
: (比如摩根大通的efficiente指数）这些非常不透明的指数的。（btw, CMS
stands for
: constant maturity swap, 如果你不明白这是什么，最好不要碰和CMS相关的产
品）
: 可是，structured notes也可以设计得很稳妥，比如有很大的downside
protection，
: 比较常见的是５年期只要SPX不跌５０％就还本。SPX 5year rolling period
return
: 过去几十年有没有跌过５０％？最多一次跌多少，... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 32 看你的投资期限和风险承受能力了。
如果在1-2年以下，又需要保本，建议就存银行吧。如果可以承受点风险，考虑点大盘
ETF。
如果在5年左右。但是希望比较稳健的，可以考虑floating rate loans,或者其他有很
大的downside protection的产品。比如带collateral的secured loan, muni,
investment grade bond. 当然，列举的几个都是很保守的。如果希望激进点，可以考
虑带leverage的equity linked notes，同时也有一定downside protection.
如果时间再长，变数就更大了。如果没有保险的话买个whole life。或者买个大盘指数
长期持有。另外，给自己换个大房子住，买点喜欢的东西，让自己心情愉快不枉此生，
也是好投资。 ：） |
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c***g
发帖数: 472 | 33 what's the downside of the sigleton?
what's the downside of the binary search tree compared to linked list? |
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b********2
发帖数: 5191 | 34 【 以下文字转载自 CaliforniaMortgage 俱乐部 】
发信人: blueangel2 (Feedback is power), 信区: CaliforniaMortgage
标 题: Interest Rates Jump to Highest Level in Three Months zz
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Aug 15 19:03:37 2012, 美东)
Treasury yields moved to their highest level in three-months Wednesday, as
selling hit the bonds sought as the safest haven in a scary world just a
month ago.
Traders said improving U.S. economic data was behind the selling. But they
also pointed to a big seller overnight during the Asian session... 阅读全帖 |
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M********8
发帖数: 3837 | 35 我觉得这种安排对于楼主来说没有upside.
老公的upside很多：百人混好了，孩子身边了，父母天伦了，万一百人不好，老婆在美
国公民还能撤退了。
Downside: 老婆在美国跟人跑了，不过有孩子，这条不太可能
楼主的upside? 只有一条，老公百人很成功，吃香喝辣，做阔太太（老实说机会不大）
但是楼主的downside是铁板钉钉的：孩子跟自己不亲，老公不在身边没个照应，自己不
能跟父母聚天伦。而且一不小心，老公变心的话，什么都没有，竹篮打水一场空。
楼主老公的安排就是好处全他拿着了，风险全部楼主承担了。不管回不回，楼主要从风
险回报方面分析问题。如果楼主自己也喜欢美国的话，要坚持两点
1）两个孩子必须留在身边自己照料
2）老公必须负责楼主在美国的开销。
我认识好几个分居的家庭就是这种模式，老公在大陆打拼赚钱，小孩老婆在美国拿公民
上学，由老公支持。好像楼主老公这种发配老婆一人在边疆的模式，完全没有看到过，
听都没有听到过。 |
|
G**T
发帖数: 2610 | 36
怒赞。
情商似乎不是个新概念了，但楼主的comments却似乎有很多新意--对我来说。
=== quote
而在子女教育版的话，感觉又是将带入家长急切心态的，家长特别注重孩子前十几年的
发展，不是从一个长期发展的观点，而是急着把人一辈子要学的最好都在孩子人生前二
十年完成，或者十五年内完成。
=== end quote
我特别赞同这个说法 -- 并且检讨一下，即使完全同意这个道理，在教育孩子的过程中
，也经常会下意识地往这个急功近利的方向偏，经常需要有意识地矫正自己。
=== quote
在集中求学的时期，应该是青少年由自己的本能驱动去发现自己comfort zone的过程，
而并不是一个急于去expand的时期，外沿的expand是后期的，有的人会在十几岁，有的
人会在二十几岁，有的人会在五十岁，六十岁。找到合适自己的领域，有适应，才能有
拓展。这是一个了解规则，熟悉规则，改变规则，创造新规则的过程。
=== end quote
这一段儿简直总结得太精辟了。前几天某id开玩笑问，精心培养孩子的downside是什么
，我开玩笑地说，是孩子太优秀了娶不好嫁不好。但隐约之中，觉得有更s... 阅读全帖 |
|
w*********y
发帖数: 7895 | 37 === quote
在集中求学的时期，应该是青少年由自己的本能驱动去发现自己comfort zone的过程，
而并不是一个急于去expand的时期，外沿的expand是后期的，有的人会在十几岁，有的
人会在二十几岁，有的人会在五十岁，六十岁。找到合适自己的领域，有适应，才能有
拓展。这是一个了解规则，熟悉规则，改变规则，创造新规则的过程。
=== end quote
这一段儿简直总结得太精辟了。前几天某id开玩笑问，精心培养孩子的downside是什么
，我开玩笑地说，是孩子太优秀了娶不好嫁不好。但隐约之中，觉得有更serious的
downside。
这段儿话，就言简意赅地总结回答了我的隐约的concern。 过于精心培养，代价之一是
，会不小心急于去expand，留给孩子有本能驱动去发现自己comfort zone的过程，会受
到负面影响。
当然，现实中的困难永远是find the balance，但明确知道balancing between what
factors，还是有很大的帮助的。至少朝着某个方向推火车的劲头儿去做推妈推爸，而
不是总去寻找某种balance，是有害无益的。... 阅读全帖 |
|
G**T
发帖数: 2610 | 38
怒赞。
情商似乎不是个新概念了，但楼主的comments却似乎有很多新意--对我来说。
=== quote
而在子女教育版的话，感觉又是将带入家长急切心态的，家长特别注重孩子前十几年的
发展，不是从一个长期发展的观点，而是急着把人一辈子要学的最好都在孩子人生前二
十年完成，或者十五年内完成。
=== end quote
我特别赞同这个说法 -- 并且检讨一下，即使完全同意这个道理，在教育孩子的过程中
，也经常会下意识地往这个急功近利的方向偏，经常需要有意识地矫正自己。
=== quote
在集中求学的时期，应该是青少年由自己的本能驱动去发现自己comfort zone的过程，
而并不是一个急于去expand的时期，外沿的expand是后期的，有的人会在十几岁，有的
人会在二十几岁，有的人会在五十岁，六十岁。找到合适自己的领域，有适应，才能有
拓展。这是一个了解规则，熟悉规则，改变规则，创造新规则的过程。
=== end quote
这一段儿简直总结得太精辟了。前几天某id开玩笑问，精心培养孩子的downside是什么
，我开玩笑地说，是孩子太优秀了娶不好嫁不好。但隐约之中，觉得有更s... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********y
发帖数: 7895 | 39 === quote
在集中求学的时期，应该是青少年由自己的本能驱动去发现自己comfort zone的过程，
而并不是一个急于去expand的时期，外沿的expand是后期的，有的人会在十几岁，有的
人会在二十几岁，有的人会在五十岁，六十岁。找到合适自己的领域，有适应，才能有
拓展。这是一个了解规则，熟悉规则，改变规则，创造新规则的过程。
=== end quote
这一段儿简直总结得太精辟了。前几天某id开玩笑问，精心培养孩子的downside是什么
，我开玩笑地说，是孩子太优秀了娶不好嫁不好。但隐约之中，觉得有更serious的
downside。
这段儿话，就言简意赅地总结回答了我的隐约的concern。 过于精心培养，代价之一是
，会不小心急于去expand，留给孩子有本能驱动去发现自己comfort zone的过程，会受
到负面影响。
当然，现实中的困难永远是find the balance，但明确知道balancing between what
factors，还是有很大的帮助的。至少朝着某个方向推火车的劲头儿去做推妈推爸，而
不是总去寻找某种balance，是有害无益的。... 阅读全帖 |
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a******o
发帖数: 261 | 40 This happens in my house too. The short answer is both of you are right,
the key here is balance.
You obviously recognize the downside of "比较严厉", but the downside of your
method is that kids will soon learn (or already learned?) that rules are
all "optional". As a result, kids will procrastinate until death about
everything b/c there is little consequence for them to listen right away.
Basically, you don't have authority over them.
It may not matter for something as trivial (or is it?) as bru... 阅读全帖 |
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t******l
发帖数: 10908 | 41 [quote]
Most people inherit a version of a gene that optimizes their brain’s
thinking circuitry, yet also appears to increase risk for schizophrenia*, a
severe mental illness marked by impaired thinking, scientists at the
National Institutes of Health’s (NIH) National Institute of Mental Health (
NIMH) have discovered. The seeming paradox emerged from the first study to
explore the effects of variation in the human gene for a brain master switch
, DARPP-32.
[/quote]
Common Gene Version Optimizes... 阅读全帖 |
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m*********a
发帖数: 3299 | 42 I saw ceiling of $12.5 and downside risk of cash value $6. For me, $9 is the
entry point that downside risk is less than upper side risk. I may buy a
small position at $9. Average down to $6 if the company has no risk to
bankrupt. |
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l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 43 【 以下文字转载自 bluechips 俱乐部 】
发信人: liliwater (lyrist), 信区: bluechips
标 题: Goldman is behind Geely
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Mar 30 12:05:41 2010, 美东)
Geely Buys Volvo: Goldman Gets The Upside, You Get The Downside
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/30/geely-buys-volvo-goldman-gets-the-upside-you-get-the-
downside/
Goldman Sachs’ private equity owns a significant stake in Geely, with the
explicit goal of helping that company
expand internationally. Remember what Goldman is – or rather what Goldman
becam |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 44 so you see a lot more downside ahead?
I feel it will be up and down market for a while, 10000 should be the
downside limit, barring any 911 like event.
My strategy is still to hold some short positions for financials/tech/
material sector ETF, while bottom fishing individual stocks that I consider
as oversold/undervalued. And I always sell (part) long positions on any
sizable rebound while holding onto the short positions. |
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w******s
发帖数: 16209 | 45 NEW YORK—Despite disappointment in the stock market over Apple Inc.'s
quarterly earnings, options traders were putting on bets Tuesday that the
stock might climb over $320 as soon as Friday.
Apple reported Monday afternoon that its fiscal fourth-quarter profit surged
70%, but its stock fell 2.7% to $309.49 Tuesday as the company's gross
margin and iPad sales numbers failed to meet analyst expectations.
Nevertheless, options traders bought an elevated number of October $320
calls Tuesday priced a... 阅读全帖 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 46 【 以下文字转载自 TraderSuccess 俱乐部 】
发信人: MB80528 (肥猫(Contrarian)[食MM而肥]), 信区: TraderSuccess
标 题: Re: 最新卖空机会 -- 红帽 （RHT) 今天的高峰价 47+ 现在是 46.85
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 25 03:12:29 2011, 美东)
..........................
Today's short-squeeze is mostly offset by an increase
in downside, making RHT an even more attractive short
once the uptrend line breaks.
Downside target: 47.25 - 5.19 = 42 (approx.)
SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
RHT, 20110324, 47.2500, -5.1930, -11.0
RHT, ... 阅读全帖 |
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i**********0
发帖数: 73 | 47 FYI
Despite significant revision, we still see downside to 1Q consensus EPS
estimates
We expect non-GAAP revenue to rise 19% yoy to US$95m, which is in line with
company
guidance (US$93m-96m). This is mainly driven by 34% yoy growth in ad revenue
. We expect
the GAAP gross margin to further decline 2ppt qoq to 56% on higher video
content and
bandwidth costs, and the non-GAAP op margin to narrow 4ppt qoq to 23% on
higher S&M
expenditure on miniblog. We note that Bloomberg consensus estimates for ... 阅读全帖 |
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g****u
发帖数: 695 | 48 你另外建舱位，如果是 stock，你就同时引入了 upside and downside，跟你现有
的舱位没有什么关系。你可以买 call，这样只有 upside 没有 downside，of course
with a cost of the premium，但是那就抵消了你卖的 covered call，改变了
你本来的 strategy. 你可以说用不同的 expiry/strike。但是 at the end of
the day，你搞得再复杂，无非就是在 play with the risk/reward profile.
说白了，你能靠 option 做的无非就是拆东墙补西墙，不能改变你买错了股票并且已经
在亏损的现实。
我告诉你，期权 at the best 是 fair value，实际上算上 bid/ask spread
根本就是个 sucker's game。你说的 zero cost 根本就不是 zero cost，你放
弃了你本来 underlying 的 upside 这本身就是一个 cost。如果没有 underlying
在那里，你这个组合的风险大了去了。... 阅读全帖 |
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y******i
发帖数: 199 | 49 又是一个把卖put当成和limit buy order等效的。。。
你卖了put就只能承受downside而没有upside。如果被你exercise了，你就同时有了
upside和downside，那你为什么第一天能收买家的钱？ |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 50 Again, no one summarized it better than David Rosenberg!
Enjoy:
First, the Fed once again downgraded its outlook on the economy, citing "
significant downside risks" (the word "significant" was not there on August
9th) and added "strains in global financial markets" as one of the reasons
for the more downbeat assessment.
If there hadn't been so many trial balloons being floated in recent weeks
over the prospect of an Operation Twist ("OT") style of policy easing,
perhaps the stock market would h... 阅读全帖 |
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