r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 1 Unfortunately you are right :(
The biggest issue I have with the IUL/VUL type of product is - people's
attention has been led to the "protection on the downside", etc, without
showing them the alternative.
I will bet that most people won't buy IUL/VUL if they were shown the
alternative, as people tend to have high confidence on themselves.
But as you correctly pointed out - few people have the discipline to
consistently invest with DCA on low cost index funds, even that's something
very easy to... 阅读全帖 |
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z*f
发帖数: 139 | 2 Sorry. Obviously, you don't know IUL perfectly. You have confused the word
premium with Cost of Insurance(COI) charge. UL/IUL/VUL are all flexible
premium products. Within certain limitations, premium amounts can vary as
long as there is enough money in the account values to pay the ongoing fees(
including COI charge) and expenses.
You have also confused the word "DB" with Net Amount at Risk(NAR)when you
say "as CV grows, it(DB) will decline". There are two common death benefit
options:
Option A... 阅读全帖 |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 3 Unfortunately you are right :(
The biggest issue I have with the IUL/VUL type of product is - people's
attention has been led to the "protection on the downside", etc, without
showing them the alternative.
I will bet that most people won't buy IUL/VUL if they were shown the
alternative, as people tend to have high confidence on themselves.
But as you correctly pointed out - few people have the discipline to
consistently invest with DCA on low cost index funds, even that's something
very easy to... 阅读全帖 |
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i****e
发帖数: 157 | 4 Thanks, redsim.
From diversification point of view, if I have already put some money in high
risk stock market for gambling, some money in index for long term growth,
and still have a little left, then what I can think of is to put the left
money in CD or saving account. My question is: can I use some sorts of
hybrid annuity products to replace CD/saving account, as a relatively
flexible and conservative investment tool.
The reason I mentioned hybrid annuity, because my understanding about hybri... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 5 DGS and EEMV.
I am also looking closely at QUAL and MTUM, that exploit quality and
momentum. Size and value factors are easy to come by, quality and momentum
factors are not, VIG may be an option for value factor. There are a few low-
volatility factor ETFs. The additional good thing about QUAL and MTUM is
they are cheap, at 0.15% ER.
IELG and IESM are two multifactor funds that target value and quality
factors and will likely be able to offer deeper factor exposures than a
portfolio of single-f... 阅读全帖 |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 6 你的ROR 的计算是理性的. 但是关于风险的分析有问题, 这个实际上不是你的问题, 而
是金融领域关于风险的定义和计算的问题.
只有向下的surprise是真正的风险, 向上的surprise是大家欢迎的风险. IUL protects
the downside risk, but at the same time also shields you from the upside
opportunity.
ROR实际上不是一个好的比较指标, 一方面比较难以向大众解释, 一方面难以计算. 一
个简洁实用的指标是after-tax cash value of the three products, 因为这是大家实
实在在可以用得到的.
I am an Excel guy, I have done many comparisons of IUL and Term+Index and I
can say the following:
1. 单纯假设一个annual growth rate然后比较after-tax cash value of the two没意
义, 因为显然Term+Inde... 阅读全帖 |
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p******g
发帖数: 15 | 7 time horizon is important. actually, if you buy and hold VFINX from 2000-
2014 your total return(dividend reinvested) is 1.5% annual equivalent. if
you hold from 2000-2012 your annual return is -0.75%.
Without question, IUL would have beaten VFINX. even with averaging cost
basis method, IUL still beats VFINX.
In theory you can mimic IUL with a call spread option on SPX. the premium
for the option costs about 6-8%. so you need a fixed income instrument that
can generate 6-8% interest to fund the ... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 8 If in your example, since you can postpone buying a house, then that is not
much a risk. No big deal. But if the downside consequence could lead to with
some significant family issue, such as your significant other breakup with
you because of you screw up the down-payment money, do you still want to
take the chance? |
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v**5
发帖数: 745 | 9 Dollar cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy for reducing the
impact of volatility on large purchases of financial assets such as equities
. By dividing the total sum to be invested in the market (e.g. $100,000)
into equal amounts put into the market at regular intervals (e.g. $1000 over
100 weeks), DCA reduces the risk of incurring a substantial loss resulting
from investing the entire "lump sum" just before a fall in the market.
Dollar cost averaging is not always the most profitable ... 阅读全帖 |
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r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 10
The problem you found is a key downside of investing in condo - 先不谈 high
condo fee， you don't have much say on condo's fate, you gave a very good
example
Try to find a townhome. |
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l******i
发帖数: 303 | 11 发现我写错了，应该是100k，sorry!!!
时间的话至少2-3年应该不会用到这部分钱，能承受downside 30%的风险吧。 |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 12 I am putting all IRA in it. If long term return is 7%, it's already a good
investment. Consider the downside risk is so much lower than stock. |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 13 I don't get why HYG is comparable. Didn't HYG have a huge drop just like
every stock in 2009?
If you are looking for 7% annual return for last 5 years, any major index
ETF has better return.
Truth is, HYG hasn't even recovered to pre-2009 level. What a joke!
The point of lending club is the downside risk is well contained.
d |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 14 I might be wrong, but my gut feeling says that you might be underestimating
the risks of lendingclub notes. I am not convinced there is any investment
that has equity-like return and downside risk comparable to or less than
bonds.
I do have a small amount of money invested in those notes (for a little less
than a year). I treat it like illiquid, junk bonds. In a zero-interest rate
environment, there aren't really good options for steady income. |
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S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 15 I fail to see the credit risk of lendingclub and alike can be lower than
junk bonds.
There may be some investment that has equity-like return and downside risk
comparable to bond, such as privately managed woods. Not like forestry
companies which have to cut the trees regardless to meet their obligations,
when lumber price is low, these privately managed woods can stay out and let
trees grow (thus the value of their holdings grows). But it certainly not
for us ordinary investors.
underestimatin... 阅读全帖 |
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u****e
发帖数: 99 | 16 I feel you are changing my definition of scope of greed.
No, I am not sure I can control my greed very well. Greed is part of human
nature, a weakness, at the same time a strength. Human race makes to its
current form partially for being greedy. Desire to outperform, to gain more.
I am merely aware of this tendency, but not too sure I will control it well.
Going for index, and try to perform "benign negligence" is one way for me to
deal with it. If I follow too closely on all the market news, I ... 阅读全帖 |
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k********0
发帖数: 20 | 17 Well, IUL is for people who doesn't want to take market risk.
We just want simple/reasonable return with 0 downside.
If I am good with stock then I won't be looking at IUL. =)
Good night!
Plus
threshold |
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k********0
发帖数: 20 | 18 Well, on the contrary, it's perfect tool for the average Joe considering the
downside protection of 0%. If you been through 2008 of 38% down market then
you would appreciate that and sleep better at night. It's simply trade off.
Average Joe can't trade like goodbug, they tend to lack of self-discipline
and tend to sell low and buy high.
% |
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l*******o
发帖数: 669 | 19
Guarantee
I have the same plan. Will retire this year. No way will I trade my life for
money any longer.
The only thing I will do differently though is that I will avoid using
medicaid. This is a big downside of using medicaid. Rather I will game the
Obamacare system so that I will maximize the subsidy. Health insurance will
not be free but I will pay very little. |
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s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 20 我自己拥有一些residential rental properties, 在 退休帐户里也长期拥有VNQ 和
FRIFX 这样 diversified 的 REIT etf 或者fund。大致谈谈我个人对这两个不同的
asset class 的看法。
选择 reit fund 的好处是分散了风险 ，并且因为钱是由房地产业的职业投资者 打理
, downside risk 会小于自己直接持有出租物业。另外基本上是passive 的投资，一切
交给 professional 去打理，自己基本不用费心。肯定不是每个人都适合自己做地主，
但是基本上每个人都可以长期在自己的资产里配置 一定比例的VNQ 。
选择直接拥有出租物业当然也就选择了更多的风险。房产的投资需要相对较大的资金量
，我们绝大多数散户都肯定做不到大机构那样的分散投资。但是较高风险的同时，也会
伴随着更大回报的机遇。散户小地主做好了，确实可以取得比机构投资者更好的回报。
首先大机构必须投出去的 资金量也决定了它不可能象散户那样专买一个市场里的 deal
价，另外它的overhead 比散户也更多。就我所知，很多大机构的物业 c... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 21 世事无常，万事皆变，英国脱欧，川普上台。市场何去何从，2017年如何投资，谁也没
有水晶球。一方面大盘指数不断节节创新高，失业率低，GDP预期增加，看似全球只有
美国经济一枝独秀；另一方面财政，货币，以及外交政策都充满极大的不确定性，有人
认为川普会是下一个柯立芝（Calvin Coolidge) 或里根（Ronald Reagan)，也有人认
为他闭关锁国之策不能长久，甚至会变成希特勒，促使美国内战爆发。
下面内容纯粹作为讨论，当然，在考虑这些另类投资前，应该先放满401k, 有IRA, 529
, 至少有个term保险, 大多数钱在传统投资产品，比如股票,mutual fund, ETF, bond
里面。
1. Muni bond，高一些的可以到4%，那么税前就大概6%左右了。风险比较小，就算是深
蓝的加州default过，也只是拖了一段时间利息，本金还是还了的。但是投资期限长，
而且现
在在加息周期，如果你只是拿到到期日当然没问题，但是要受得住加息中间bond
mark to market的风险.
2. TIPS. Hedge inflation risk。概念是很好，但是操作... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 22 世事无常，万事皆变，英国脱欧，川普上台。市场何去何从，2017年如何投资，谁也没
有水晶球。一方面大盘指数不断节节创新高，失业率低，GDP预期增加，看似全球只有
美国经济一枝独秀；另一方面财政，货币，以及外交政策都充满极大的不确定性，有人
认为川普会是下一个柯立芝（Calvin Coolidge) 或里根（Ronald Reagan)，也有人认
为他闭关锁国之策不能长久，甚至会变成希特勒，促使美国内战爆发。
下面内容纯粹作为讨论，当然，在考虑这些另类投资前，应该先放满401k, 有IRA, 529
, 至少有个term保险, 大多数钱在传统投资产品，比如股票,mutual fund, ETF, bond
里面。
1. Muni bond，高一些的可以到4%，那么税前就大概6%左右了。风险比较小，就算是深
蓝的加州default过，也只是拖了一段时间利息，本金还是还了的。但是投资期限长，
而且现
在在加息周期，如果你只是拿到到期日当然没问题，但是要受得住加息中间bond
mark to market的风险.
2. TIPS. Hedge inflation risk。概念是很好，但是操作... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 23 今天来和大家唠唠嗑。
May Eighteen前几天和一个朋友聊。他说看了Ken Fisher的书，书里说，作为非专业的
投资人，长期定时买入大盘指数ETF是最好的选择。 我连连竖大拇指，太对了，如果没
有时间精力，没有专业的知识和团队，没有华尔街大行的平台和资源，作为散户，定期
投入大盘指数ETF的确是个成本最小，最为经济的选择，而且投资回报常常比一些专业
投资者更为靓丽。
可是会有人问，现在美股每年创历史新高，甚至每个月，每一天都创历史新高。自己的
账户虽然也是账面富贵，但心里好害怕。全球政局不稳，一会中东恐怖组织出击，一会
北韩武器导弹升空，唯一还不错的美国又有一个不按常理出牌的总统，不知道明天又会
发什么推特，出什么幺蛾子，好害怕自己的账户分分钟缩水。所以经常有人问May
Eighteen: 你说我要不要逢高卖出，等待抄底呢？
凡是问这个问题的，便是没有定力做到任凭风吹雨打寒风霜冻依然做到定投大盘指数的
。嚷嚷着大盘高了要清仓等抄底，大盘跌了要割肉保存实力的，通常是亏得最惨的。那
个Murphy's law说什么来着？Anything that can go wrong, wi... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 24 今天来和大家唠唠嗑。
May Eighteen前几天和一个朋友聊。他说看了Ken Fisher的书，书里说，作为非专业的
投资人，长期定时买入大盘指数ETF是最好的选择。 我连连竖大拇指，太对了，如果没
有时间精力，没有专业的知识和团队，没有华尔街大行的平台和资源，作为散户，定期
投入大盘指数ETF的确是个成本最小，最为经济的选择，而且投资回报常常比一些专业
投资者更为靓丽。
可是会有人问，现在美股每年创历史新高，甚至每个月，每一天都创历史新高。自己的
账户虽然也是账面富贵，但心里好害怕。全球政局不稳，一会中东恐怖组织出击，一会
北韩武器导弹升空，唯一还不错的美国又有一个不按常理出牌的总统，不知道明天又会
发什么推特，出什么幺蛾子，好害怕自己的账户分分钟缩水。所以经常有人问May
Eighteen: 你说我要不要逢高卖出，等待抄底呢？
凡是问这个问题的，便是没有定力做到任凭风吹雨打寒风霜冻依然做到定投大盘指数的
。嚷嚷着大盘高了要清仓等抄底，大盘跌了要割肉保存实力的，通常是亏得最惨的。那
个Murphy's law说什么来着？Anything that can go wrong, wi... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 25 6%以上的固定回报要看你投资期限多长，如果1-3年，那肯定风险比较大了。如果5年左
右，还是有不少选择的：
1. 5年的structured note with 40-50% downside protection。年回报大约5-6%
2. private REITs。年回报可以到6-7%。至少要4年。
3. BDC. 年回报5-7%。也是至少要5年左右。
这几个都是比较安全的选择。不能说保本，但是比较稳妥。 |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 26 There are costs incurred, so it's too much to ask for the fund to be
perfectly tracking the index. I'm not recommending this fund, but I think
they do fairly well.
The 2027 fund is too new. Let's take BSCH (to return all capital this year):
Expense Ratio 0.24%
Median Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.26%
Max. Upside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.19%
Max. Downside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.33%
Hypothetically, if you and Buffett combined put in 10 million dollars into
the fund, they will hav... 阅读全帖 |
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w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 27 There are costs incurred, so it's too much to ask for the fund to be
perfectly tracking the index. I'm not recommending this fund, but I think
they do fairly well.
The 2027 fund is too new. Let's take BSCH (to return all capital this year):
Expense Ratio 0.24%
Median Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.26%
Max. Upside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.19%
Max. Downside Tracking Difference (12 Mo) -0.33%
Hypothetically, if you and Buffett combined put in 10 million dollars into
the fund, they will hav... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******j
发帖数: 274 | 28 读了一些plan，感觉有downside protection挺好的，有人买过吗？有什么不好的或者
需要注意的地方吗？ |
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I**A
发帖数: 2345 | 29 首先赞一个，这个DP算法很合理。
两个问题
1） 你是说104，是么？
10－43－70－104
2） 你怎么理解这个reachable？
我觉得每个node可reach的downside只有两个,upside一个或者是两个，找一个node的
child比较简单，找parent就会稍微复杂一点点。。
比如 （不好意思， BBS会把下图的格式改掉，反正大致就是这么个金字塔的意思）
10
/ \
20 33
/ \ / \
31 16 27
/ \ / \ / \
19 02 34 25
我原来想的是for each node, get its two child, then use modified Dijkstra's
algorithm to find the maximum path to the leaf，
看了你的DP算法之后，得到提示， 可以用DP,从the second level from bottom 开始
go upward.. as[i] = max(as[i]ch |
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z******i
发帖数: 102 | 30 我的情况比较复杂，和直接的manager关系不好，给我穿小鞋。
比如我很想在公司发个patent,但这个家伙从中阻挠，非要把他的人加进来。
都要辞职了，还有必要去care这个patent，向上层告他一状吗？
我是想把事情闹大点，否则我走了，patent也就成了他的了。
downside是这样就burn the bridge了。 |
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l***i
发帖数: 1309 | 31 Depends on how much house allowance they give.
The best option is to find a Stanford dorm, join ACSSS mailing list. The
downside is that you might have problem parking your car.
If you have a car or do not mind 20min biking, you can try Mountain View
where there are more houses/apts for rental and prices are more reasonable,
around 650-800/month. |
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T********n
发帖数: 528 | 32 在本版潜水良久，虽然受益匪浅，可是同时对于我这类非博士，非fresh，非CS，想要
转行，想从小公司到大公司的人 - 面经信息不多。想要看最重要一点的人，直接跳到
“第三个经验”。
这三个月来骑驴找马。上个礼拜给了notice，这个礼拜会从几个offer选择，再此分享
我找工作的过程和经验，希望对大家有帮助。
本人的背景一般。本科经济系，学校不是牛校也不是二流。毕业后在华尔街一家小型的
investment firm工作了一年后到了我现在刚要离开的软件公司。从entry-level
support engineer做起，六年来一步一步爬，公司只有～200人，所以基本上什么都做
了一点。Customer service, project management, product management, product
strategy, business development, marketing, corporate communications, etc.
待过很多组的代价是简历上没有显示专精于任何一方面。
我第一个想跟大家分享的经验就是找工作要有focus。从我的例子来说，几乎任... 阅读全帖 |
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d******e
发帖数: 551 | 33 Gainesville rocks!
Very good high school (East Side high), cheap house, quite large Chinese
faculty and student community in a college town. Three Chinese grocery
stores. Very nice ppl. The Phillips center always have great shows. Great
football and basketball games. also though I'm not a christian, I kind of
like the baptists there.
It's also easy for your wife to find a job at UF if she choose to.
Downside is you don't have a lot of other career opportunites, plus the
Chinese food sucks compar... 阅读全帖 |
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w****8
发帖数: 142 | 34 There is no official definition for black-out period. The general guidance
is 6 month from your last recruiting activity (either phone screen or on-
site). But it all depends on the feedback, the job type etc. So if you ask a
recruiter, he/she is always going to encourage you to re-apply. There is no
downside here. They don't punish you because you applied within 6 months.
So I suggest just apply if you want to, let them decide. |
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l*******s
发帖数: 194 | 35 NY Income tax is 8.75%.If you don't buy a house, 100k is still OK. When you
have more work experience, I think your boss will raise your salary.
you have more opportunity for your career when you are close to NYC. Plus
there is a big Chinese population in Westchester, when you come here, you
will not feel lonely. Your kids will have a lot of Chinese friends.
The downside is living cost here is very high. not only housing, but also
child education. I think people here feel more financial stress t... 阅读全帖 |
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l*******s
发帖数: 194 | 36 NY Income tax is 8.75%.If you don't buy a house, 100k is still OK. When you
have more work experience, I think your boss will raise your salary.
you have more opportunity for your career when you are close to NYC. Plus
there is a big Chinese population in Westchester, when you come here, you
will not feel lonely. Your kids will have a lot of Chinese friends.
The downside is living cost here is very high. not only housing, but also
child education. I think people here feel more financial stress t... 阅读全帖 |
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w*****s
发帖数: 438 | 37 Really? Any downside working for them? I didn't know ICC could be a public
company... |
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l***i
发帖数: 1309 | 38 这个我早就考虑过，其实门槛不搞，加盟dealer或者自己创业都不难，收入可比entry
level马工，work life balance不错，dealer那里约mechanic都是8am－4pm。career生
命长，估计干到60问题不大。唯一的downside据说是手上的机油洗不干净，对于外来务
工人员可能H1B和绿卡都不sponsor，有卡的兄弟可以考虑。
听说去正规店3-6个月training就可以出师。 |
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m*****n
发帖数: 204 | 39 SRE is primarily NOT a development role. They may write some tools but it's
not their main job. Typical work include (but not limited to):
- Production system monitoring and trouble shooting: detect problems, gather
data, fix or contain the problem if possible, and identify the right
development teams to escalate the problem if necessary.
- Help development teams define meaningful metrics that help with their job
above
- Perform general design reviews from the angle of resiliency and recovery.
A... 阅读全帖 |
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s**x
发帖数: 7506 | 40 RF stock can easy double in a year or two.
Can be a buyout target.
Downside, recession is near, 3-5 years?
When recession comes, everyone going down.
Fb is big and stable.
I would vote for Rf even the offer is slightly worse.
Risk is always there. |
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b*******5
发帖数: 95 | 41 what's the downside to quite now then?
I guess there won't be any issue unless USCIS hold the approval of the case?
has |
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a*****u
发帖数: 1712 | 42 哦，看错了，原来s股票多四十万啊，也不知道四十万是百分之几
我跟楼上想法有点不一样，最近这些年，social的增长速度比其他产品快，也许这就是
有些人认为的泡沫。我觉得为了的几年s比a的增长速度会快。不过location对我来说是
个巨大的downside，肯定不会去la的，lz好像无所谓
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.7 |
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a*****y
发帖数: 613 | 43 这个downside跟股票的风险比起来可以忽略不计 |
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r***s
发帖数: 737 | 44 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-17/the-fuzzy-ins
Here's the secret to how Silicon Valley calculates the value of its hottest
companies: The numbers are sort of made-up. For the most mature startups,
investors agree to grant higher valuations, which help the companies with
recruitment and building credibility, in exchange for guarantees that they'
ll get their money back first if the company goes public or sells.
One stipulation, called senior liquidation preference, ensures that a... 阅读全帖 |
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m******o
发帖数: 571 | 45 相信大多数人都不知道有downside protection这个东西，所以Uber这种$40 billion
valuation水分还是蛮大的 |
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u*s
发帖数: 183 | 46 大惊小怪。liquidation preference和downside protection都几十年的老饭了。小编
还当啥新货炒。
startup的真实价就是它的option price，而不是对外的prefer share price。 |
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x****k
发帖数: 2932 | 47 恭喜恭喜,在纽约做IT,bloomberg是个不错的选择,尤其是在R&D的base普涨过一次后.比
所有大的投行都好,比大部分fund也好,能比BB好的financial公司为数不多.这里的好包
括base bonus和benefit.
downside是他们的系统和技术比较私有,不是外面常用的.不少legacy的东西需要维护的
重写. 里面的开发工具你没法挑,别想着open source,搞定手上的活要紧. 总体
financial application那块的还是非常挣钱的.挑组的时候避开烙印老板.不建议去
tradebook,钱途没有其他好.
你进去后有个trick的判断哪个组的legacy的code比较多,如果那个组维护的app的界面
是最老的基于*big的C/fortran或者gtk写的,则是老代码,如果是基于javascript的
rapid界面,就是新代码.经过training课之后你自然会分辨.
个人认为一个好老板远比维护legacy code之类的重要,这你就只能通过里面的人打听了.
Bloomberg |
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r****7
发帖数: 2282 | 48 其实我也觉得，用户习惯的力量是惊人的，facebook在美国的地位远逊于腾讯在中国，
所以另一家social发展起来的机会非常大。唯一的downside就是不在湾区了。 |
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g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 49 Limited downside, limited upside. We all know this too well. Risk/reward
wise, it's not better than staying in companies like FLG. |
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l****l
发帖数: 148 | 50 后面一个回答对于“想去google学技术”的人也很有指导意义:
From an engineering perspective, the upside is that you can focus on
developing your product without worrying too much about how to scale since
things are nicely abstracted from you with GFS, Bigtable, protocol buffers,
etc. The downside is that after doing that for a few years, you may very
quickly lose touch with the real world on how to scale things via open
source technologies. |
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