h*****g
发帖数: 144 | 1 Among the recent (or any time range) 485 submission,
(EB1 + EB2Row) / (EB2C + EB2I + EB3) = ?
Roughly speaking? |
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a****l
发帖数: 8211 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 EB23 讨论区 】
发信人: cne0904 (cne0904), 信区: EB23
标 题: 预测：EB2C日历年之内排期进至2012年
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Feb 4 19:56:09 2012, 美东)
取决于2012年多少Chinese申请EB2（没有发生因此谁也不知道），2013年可能某个时候
全C。以上结论不考虑3012。
政治立场：兄04年EB2现已公民；弟07年EB2已入485；自己10年EB2。
没有看到其他人的分析，自己做的功课，仅供参考比较。
库存日期 中＋印 全球EB1 中印外EB2 总计 当
时排期
2012/1 3,624 + 12,950 = 16,574 15,583 12,016 44,173 1/1/09
2011/10 4,136 + 8,965 = 13,101 14,072 10,146 37,319 7/15/
07
2011/5 9,787 + 22,5... 阅读全帖 |
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S****S
发帖数: 293 | 3 据说USCIS降低EB1的速度，是为了spill over 名额给07大潮的人。
不知道是不是准确。
根据印度人的网站，我查了一下， 从去年10月到现在，EB1 485总共才批量大约300个左右。总量不降低 反升。
我会根据大家的意见来修改，大家可以畅所欲言，把需要改的东西都发上来，我会综合成搞，给大家
我们需要行动，大家团结一下行吗
如果在同一时间，大家给USCIS的director 发信，我相信是由效果的。 要去争取，不要死等。
大家需要我做什么 可以列出来
Two emails with your own representation and status：
c**********[email protected]
S********[email protected]
声明：我没有损害EB2地意思，只是想让大家都早拿绿卡，生活方便。如有不妥之处，请大家指出。
下面的新式从别的地方copy的另外一个模板
To Whom It May Concern,
We are a group of people who have applied our permanent residencies underEB1 (res... 阅读全帖 |
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q*p
发帖数: 667 | 4 先补充几个
SO: Spill Over
ROW: Rest of world
EB2I: EB2 indian
EB2C: EB2 China
CDP: Card/Document Production |
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m******n
发帖数: 151 | 5 我刚来这个版的时候也是云里雾里的。先贡献几个,大家补充。
谢谢Luckychong, qYp，mdcai的补充。
AD: Approval Date
AOS: Adjustment of Status ( 485 pending)
ASC:Application Service Center (local USCIS service center)
AP: Advance Parole
AP: Assistant Professor
BC: Birth Certificate
CDP: Card/Document Production
CSC: California Service Center
DIY: Do-It-Yourself
EAC: Eastern Adjudication Center (= VSC)
EB: Employment-based
EB2I: EB2 indian
EB2C: EB2 China
EAD: Employment Authorization Document
EVL: Employment Verification Letter
FP: Fing... 阅读全帖 |
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m******z
发帖数: 608 | 6 uscistracker更新了，6月份nsc和tsc总共收到不到2w个485，没有大潮。看来row比
eb2c和eb2i还是少多了。 |
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b*******e
发帖数: 24532 | 7 The thing that I worried about turns out to be the reality.
In the past august, we saw large tide of green from TSC, one after another,
indicating the high usage of EB1 quota as well. However, the most horrible
thing will be that EB1C usage from India will continue to escalate in the
future considering the long waiting period for EB2I. Therefore, we will
never see EB1 as freely used as before.
Indeed, earlier this year, EB2IC both overused the quota this year.
Then it may be possible that we wi... 阅读全帖 |
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d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 8 绝对是个别啦。trackitt都找不到一个09pd的eb2I，所以09pd能绿的绝对是凤毛麟角。
有10pd已经拿到卡了？请给source。
485 |
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h*****i
发帖数: 1017 | 9 大量的SO都被他们吃了，下个月要处理他们的了，我们的485批准影响大吗？ |
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z******e
发帖数: 302 | 11 男朋友刚跳槽，新公司给办绿卡。之前的140已经通过，PD12年8月。现在头疼是办EB3
还是EB2。看EB3现在都在EB2前头了，然后DEMAND DATA EB2I十分恐怖，EB2C数量也不
少，但EB3除了烙印一如既往的多之外，EB3C和EB3ROW的DEMAND都很低了。请问是不是
这个时候办EB3会更快一些呢？当然，是在CIR不通过的情况下。
求大神指教！谢谢！ |
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z******e
发帖数: 302 | 12 男朋友刚跳槽，新公司给办绿卡。之前的140已经通过，PD12年8月。现在头疼是办EB3
还是EB2。看EB3现在都在EB2前头了，然后DEMAND DATA EB2I十分恐怖，EB2C数量也不
少，但EB3除了烙印一如既往的多之外，EB3C和EB3ROW的DEMAND都很低了。请问是不是
这个时候办EB3会更快一些呢？当然，是在CIR不通过的情况下。
求大神指教！谢谢！ |
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e******u
发帖数: 1067 | 13 悲观的想……
刚在trackitt看到第一个8/1批的eb2i case了 |
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e******u
发帖数: 1067 | 14 Yeah! Big Cong!
This means they do EB2I and EB1 concurrently! |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 15 Most of the EB2i 485s, which was submitted in the beginning of 2012, have
already been pre-adjudicated.
USCIS just needs to allocate visas to them. Why would it keep them so busy? |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 16 eb2i has 2800/12 visa number every month from 10/1/13 |
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n***m
发帖数: 1627 | 17 EB2I反对EB3I升级是众人皆知的事情，甚至于要打官司将升级堵住。至于烙印之间互斗
，不用你这个老中为了烙印的和谐呕心沥血吧。这次任意降级事件，有心人都会加以利
用，将之引向对自己有利的方向。不做任何行动，等天上掉馅饼，可能吗？ |
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W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 18 It can't be that long.
1) Some EB2 might upgrade to EB1 when time comes.
2) If the economy is bad, EB2 will get more spillover. Of course, EB2I will
get much more.
of
after Oct 2010. So your total waiting
time will be 3.17 years. |
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g******c
发帖数: 218 | 19 assuming EB2I before CY2007 shall be 22,830, it seems both C&I will have
33000 before CY2007. So the question is how many there will be for the rest
of FY10. If 20,000 available from FB/EB1/ROW, by Sep 2010, the cutoff date
will be Mar to Jun 2006 for C&I. If Mr. O does apply FB left by China to
EB C, C may be 20-40 days ahead of I. If DOL keeps the speed of approving
Perm, based on H1B data labor market shows no material improvement, by Sep
2011, all backlog before Jul 2007 may be cleared. |
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l*******r
发帖数: 218 | 20 如果是横向两年，再纵向两年，交替执行的话，EB2C就被搞死了，EB3I,Eb2I轮流通吃
剩余名额。 |
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l*******r
发帖数: 218 | 21 文件里提到了EB4,5spill up toEB1，好像是没有提EB3 ROW spill up to EB1
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
（EB1M,EB2M FALL down EB3M和FBM，这个O大一直在执行）（就是没有执行FBC to EB2C)
可以想象，Mexico EB3M,Philipines， EB3P,EB3I,等肯定也在游说，特别是去年2009EB3I也没有达到2800.他们也有很多的理由来影响O大。
EB3C只需要足额批准，不需要spillover，排期就可以快速前进，有的话当然更好。
EB2C最需要纵向分配了。
如果是横向两年，再纵向两年，交替执行的话，EB2C就被搞死了，EB3I,Eb2I轮流通吃剩余名额。如果一直是横向的话，EB2C就会隔年（大小年）得到一些好处。 |
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j********1
发帖数: 762 | 22 EB2C , c: chinese. EB2I, I: Indian |
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W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 23 The portability doesn't affect Chinese too much because there are more EB2C
than EB3C. But the indian EB3 upgrading to EB2I will eat lots of spillover.
That's really annoying. Luckily, they are fighting against each other now.
So we can be the fisherman.
了。 |
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W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 24 Even now, there are around 15-20% EB3I to EB2I but less than 10% EB3C to
EB2C. Image those indians with PD
at 2003, they have been here more than 10 years. They will try anything to
upgrade EB2 like we Chinese try
everything to get EB1.
Let's see next 485 inventory and I will calculate about EB3 upgrading.
Indian |
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l**k
发帖数: 1755 | 25 Well, there is an scenario (quite likely). If Chinese EB1/EB2/EB3+FB >7%
before spillover this year, quite possible since EB1 will have more
applications this year, then EB2C won't get any leftover from FB at all, if
Mr.O follow NIU's proposal of enforce 7% first before apply vertical
spillover rule.
Most spillover (no matter how much) will flow to other countries less than 7
% limit (but have EB3C and other kinds of backlog) before go to EBB2C and
EB2I. If I understand correctly, this is ver |
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W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 26 No. The spillover will be allocated by PD, which EB2I have much earlier PD
then us. So they will eat most of the
spillover.
No other countries has PD for EB2s only I and C. |
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l**k
发帖数: 1755 | 27 hehe, guess too complicated for me to understand.
Where is the link Mr.O said that? I know last year EB2I/C got EB1/4/5
spillovers, although not much. If not this year, definitely hurt EB2. |
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T****k
发帖数: 1374 | 28 That 3000-4000 should bring EB2C to Mar,06. PD later than that have to share
spillover with EB2I. Hopefully EB1 demand is not as high as last year? So
all the vertical spillover can go to EB2 and push PD to later 2006. |
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g******c
发帖数: 218 | 29 So roughly without any spillover#
EB2C will be the end of CY05 and EB2I will have 8400 of CY05 left.
If FB and EB2 ROW have 10000 and 10000 left, assuming all go to EB2 first (
P838's point), cutoff date will be early May 06 |
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W*********r
发帖数: 989 | 30 He made mistake again? He might forgot to subtract 400 from EB2I, LOL. |
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l*******r
发帖数: 218 | 31 又查了下EB2I6月的数据，没有改变，说明数据没有问题。
又查了下EB2I 3，4，5月的数据，老印四月份就用完了自己的配额，等着吃spillover
也就是说他们前七个月，每月得到450左右。
老中头几个月慢，头七，八个月才批1900，这几个月多了一点，心里很美？是不是这里有猫腻？大家再看一看 |
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l*******r
发帖数: 218 | 32 EB2I/ 02/01/2005, 由此可见那些移民官员做事是如何的马虎？拿申请人的钱，但不认真的做事。cutoff的数据，批准的数据，inverntory的数据，你们相信他们计算不出每月批准的数据吗？ |
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S*p
发帖数: 1483 | 33 Only EB2I is 02/01/2005, all the others (including China) are Current :-) |
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l**k
发帖数: 1755 | 34 hehe. I have predicted the PD will be in Nov or Dec in NIU forum. Don't get
excited about it. Now we got all the 3000 annual quotas we deserved. The
next big question is how many spillover will we get?
Don't be excited about it, next month we will stuck there till EB2I catch up
. nothing we can do about it. If A3 doesn't catch up, that just means we
won't get and spillover.
I believe we are NOT getting any FB spillover like NIU said, even the 800.
So what P838 said is correct. All the FB sp |
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C******e
发帖数: 1850 | 35 你的意思是到10月之前，我们的PD就停在这儿了？EB2I还在05年5月，那还不是有多少
剩余名额他们就通吃多少啊？ |
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l**k
发帖数: 1755 | 36 这个帖子给出了VB数据分析-EB2C。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31165895.html
分析的很清楚。但我觉得有漏洞
基本观点：
截止6月底EB2C将拿到1900 + 1726 = 3626个名额.
EB2C本财年应得名额(quota)2,987 + 1,173=4,160个名额.
My question: are we really getting FB spillover?
Mr.o曾经很清楚的说过，会在用spillover之前用完所有的quota(EB2C). A3们已经用完
了，因为很多EB3-EB2,所以EB2I一直不动. 七月之前，EB2C的也会用完。
按楼主的分析，EB2C实拿3626名额。so far.
考虑到大量EB2C-EB1C transfer，EB2C 实拿名额就3000。有可能实际EB2C几乎没拿到
任何FB spillover. 并不像NIU说的那样。
我希望我是错的，下个月排期出来就知道了，如果EB2C不动，A3们前进，或者和A3EB2I
平头并进，就说明我们没有任何FB spillover. 如果小 |
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b**********e
发帖数: 460 | 37 假设剩余名额不够cover当前eb2c排期之前所有c和i的inventory, 什么时候eb2c排期停
止，eb2i开始前进，那就是spillover开始分配的时候。当然现在我们的排期前进越多
越好，至少能够在spillover的时候拿到一个半个名额。现在改变分配原则可能很小，
推进排期前进是最好的获得生于名额的办法。 |
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j********1
发帖数: 762 | 38 EB2I also want to do that. |
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i****r
发帖数: 1797 | 39 科普了很多次了, EB3短缺名额是O失职，告之是名正言顺。EB2分配原则是国务院定的
。你那两种可能都用不上。现在比较可行的是找他操作上的失误(故意失误)。我看他早
早让EB2I吃完quota而不同等对待EB2C这个方面倒是可以做点文章。 |
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S*****0
发帖数: 538 | 40 "我看他早早让EB2I吃完quota而不同等对待EB2C这个方面倒是可以做点文章。"
Agreed. |
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p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 41 It is clear Mr O did big mistake on EB3C case. We have to sue him.
I agree with itiger (毛爸), I can only say it is unfair EB2I get so many
visa number,can not find his mistake.
let us wait and see what happen after EB3C law suit. |
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s********n
发帖数: 944 | 42 EB2I (10116), EB2C (3046), EB2K (South Korea, 4491).
10116 + 3046 + 4491 - 3 X 2800 = 9253
发信人: p838 (只关心EB-2共同利益), 信区: EB23
标 题: Re: 赶紧行动吧！if you are current in June.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 28 16:46:15 2010, 美东)
it is not 9千多.查证去。 |
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g******6
发帖数: 782 | 43 我倦了，本来要走了，不想来EB23论坛趟浑水，还是EB1论坛对我有用些。
现在老夫在这个论坛的最最后一贴不是这个月，是8月或9月，专门回答关于梦的问题，
你p838到时候不要不坑声，大家作证！
立此存照，再说一遍，
spill over for both Eb2I and EB2C: 25,000+
开玩笑了，我不是斤斤计较的人，大家早拿卡，该干嘛干嘛，p838 祝你早拿卡，
以后股坛见了。
最最最后一帖！
allocated |
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p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 44 如果你不知道的话，那少说梦话！
it is impossible "spill over for both Eb2I and EB2C: 25,000+".
你还真信NIU说的"Potentially 15,000 to 22,000 E2 numbers under AC21 provision
." 然后再加码到25,000+。 |
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l**k
发帖数: 1755 | 45 我希望你是错的，但我也有同样的疑惑。
这是我以前的帖子：到底有没有FB spillover? 至少800？
————————————————————————————
这个帖子给出了VB数据分析-EB2C。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31165895.html
分析的很清楚。但我觉得有漏洞
基本观点：
截止6月底EB2C将拿到1900 + 1726 = 3626个名额.
EB2C本财年应得名额(quota)2,987 + 1,173=4,160个名额.
My question: are we really getting FB spillover?
Mr.o曾经很清楚的说过，会在用spillover之前用完所有的quota(EB2C). A3们已经用完
了，因为很多EB3-EB2,所以EB2I一直不动. 七月之前，EB2C的也会用完。
按楼主的分析，EB2C实拿3626名额。so far.
考虑到大量EB2C-EB1C transfer，EB2C 实拿名额就3000。有可能实际EB2C几乎没拿到
任何FB spillover. 并不像NI |
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l*******r
发帖数: 218 | 46 What is the exact quote for EB2C in 2010? If the quote is not reached by
then, he shall not set EB2C and EB2I at the same cutoff date. |
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T****k
发帖数: 1374 | 47 RE: EB2C and EB2I cut off date will be different! Thanks for this
new
piece of information, p838!
If this is the case, which may mean China FB spillover to EB2C is
happening.
Hopefully, EB2C will go to 2006, even Apr. 2006. |
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i*****r
发帖数: 372 | 48 Here is one from IV.
Below are the counts of cases pending (including upto EB-I) from
ImmigrationRoad data.
As per this thread we are assuming that there is going to be some visas
available for spillover.
The data below helps to pinpoint cutoff dates for EB2I for spillover (if
happens):
EB-Cat Country Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Jun-06
EB-1 China 20 22 26 26 34
EB-1 India 32 33 37 38 52
EB-1 Mexico 5 5 5 5 5
EB-1 Phillipp 0 0 0 0 1
EB-1 ROW 93 94 94 94 105
EB-2 China 1871 2233 2609 3067 5704
EB- |
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T****k
发帖数: 1374 | 49 10K spillover will only bring EB2I to 2006. China will get nothing. I feel
spillover is more than that number hence China can also benefit a little. |
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i*****r
发帖数: 372 | 50 他们出的是如何行动的主意, 现在的问题是稿子如何写? 希望大家出出主意, 在现有情
况下, 理性的说明为什么EB2C的排期要与EB2I不同. |
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