l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 By Roger D. Luchs
A quotation in the September 19, 1926 edition of the Chicago Tribune
included the following observation on the electorate of the day:
No one in this world, so far as I know - and I have searched the records for
years, and employed agents to help me - has ever lost money by
underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.
Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.
Its author was H.L. Mencken, a noted journalist. Could it be that President
Obama, a... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 2 By John O'Sullivan
March 14, 2012 4:00 A.M.
Where is conservatism heading in the English-speaking world? This question
is currently being answered in the four countries of the Anglosphere —
namely, the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Britain — in four distinctive ways.
THE UNITED STATES
I will assume that American readers have a rough grasp of the state of
conservatism in the U.S. as revealed in the Republican primaries. It is
currently — as it has been for many years — a struggle for dominance in
... 阅读全帖 |
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w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 3 其实不一定非要修改宪法. 宪法只是规定了Electoral College,但是没有说他们应该怎
么投票
So far eight states and Washington. D.C. have passed legislation adopting
the "National Popular Vote Bill." They have a total of 132 Electoral College
votes. When enough states have joined to bring that up to the 270 needed
for victory in the presidential race, they will all be obliged to cast their
Electoral College votes for whoever comes first in the popular election
nationwide. |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 Jay Cost
November 2, 2012 6:00 AM
When I started making election predictions eight years ago, I had a very
different perspective than I do today. I knew relatively little about the
history of presidential elections or the geography of American politics. I
had a good background in political science and statistics. So,
unsurprisingly in retrospect, I focused on drawing confidence intervals from
poll averages.
Since then, I have learned substantially more history, soured somewhat on
political scien... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 5 Pennsylvania没有提前投票，对共和党比较有利。好戏连台！
President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the
presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began
contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.
The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at
47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the
Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to
stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to satu... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 6 How Conservatives Can Win in Blue-State America: Lessons from South Africa's
Opposition
The new conventional wisdom in the aftermath of the 2012 elections is that
Republicans face two challenges: first, that the United States is no longer
a center-right nation, but a center-left one; second, that the country’s
demographic shift away from whites will make it tougher for Republicans to
win votes. The proposed solution is that Republicans must compromise on the
party’s core policies, from immigrati... 阅读全帖 |
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o**n
发帖数: 2130 | 7 右逼可以对照开头的那个韩裔先自己照照镜子，是不是你想入共党就能入了
During the recent No Labels-hosted Problem Solver Convention in New
Hampshire, things got a little uncomfortable.
When Joseph Choe, an Asian American college student, stood up to ask a
question about South Korea, Donald Trump cut him off and wondered aloud: “
Are you from South Korea?”
Choe responded, “I’m not. I was born in Texas, raised in Colorado.” His
answer prompted laughter from the audience, and nothing more than a shrug
from the GOP presidential candida... 阅读全帖 |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 8 1992年，只有36%的亚裔投票给民主党
2008年，64%的亚裔投票给民主党
2012年，73%的亚裔投票给民主党
是亚裔吃福利的，比其他族群多吗？
不是。
2009年统计表明，亚裔的收入远高于其他族群。
亚裔的中位家庭收入是65500美元，白人是51900美元，西班牙裔38000美元，黑人32600
美元。
那么，是亚裔无知吗？
在美国，教育程度最高的族裔，是亚裔。
那么，是亚裔犯贱吗？
美国新闻版的极右会大声说，是！然后用各种各样的恶心的污言秽语招呼任何跟他们政
见不同的华人。
我想说，你们赢了。
你们2008年就赢了。
你们2012又赢了。
你们帮助民主党赢了。
2016年，你们还会赢！
下面这篇文章，详尽分析了为什么亚裔越来越远离共和党的原因。不一定全面，但是，
文章提到了金博士永远不会投任何共和党人任何一票的原因！
During the recent No Labels-hosted Problem Solver Convention in New
Hampshire, things got a little uncomfortable.
When Joseph Choe,... 阅读全帖 |
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i***a
发帖数: 4718 | 9 In a three-way race, it’s unlikely any candidate would win a majority of
electoral votes, and then the power to choose the president would be taken
out of the hands of the American people and thrown to Congress. The fact is,
even if I were to receive the most popular votes and the most electoral
votes, victory would be highly unlikely, because most members of Congress
would vote for their party’s nominee. Party loyalists in Congress -- not
the American people or the Electoral College -- would de... 阅读全帖 |
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b**********s
发帖数: 9531 | 10 这篇文章的内容很多人都能大致猜到。关键看后面的评论
http://news.yahoo.com/ohios-dirty-little-secret-blue-collar-dem
CANTON, Ohio (Reuters) - If Donald Trump wins the Republican Party
nomination, his path to the White House will run through this working-class
city with a knack for picking presidents.
No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. And nowhere better
reflects the challenges and opportunities Trump faces in his 2016
presidential quest than Canton, a once-booming industrial city that, like
Ohio and ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 11 90年代以后就没戏了。很多人把这个归功于90年代GOP通过的最严厉的反移民法案。这
个法案通过后，GOP就和latino说byebye了。
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/10/17/prop187effect/
According to polling data from the California Field Poll, after winning the
presidential election in 1980, former California Governor Ronald Reagan
raised his share of the Latino vote from 35% to 45% in 1984 while carrying
59% of the entire state. Republicans went on to win the Golden state again
in 1988. Since that election, three significant changes have reshaped... 阅读全帖 |
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c****a
发帖数: 3173 | 12 Dear MoveOn member,
Let me get right to it: An overwhelming number of MoveOn members want MoveOn
to launch a massive campaign to confront Donald Trump and the bigotry,
misogyny, and violence his campaign is fueling. Over 70% of the votes cast
in last week's membership-wide vote agreed.
Now, we need to invest in a mobilization big enough to take on a media-
dominating billionaire and to face down the dark forces of hate and violence
he has unleashed. That won't be cheap, and it won't be easy—but ... 阅读全帖 |
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a*******1
发帖数: 1554 | 13 If the U.S. presidential election were held today, Democrat Hillary Clinton
would win the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia and have a 95
percent chance of beating Republican Donald Trump to become America's first
female president, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation
project.
The project, which combines opinion polls with an analysis of voting
patterns under different election scenarios, shows Clinton currently beating
Trump in the popular vote by six percentage poin... 阅读全帖 |
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b******s
发帖数: 1572 | 15 The parties have rules that dictate what happen when a candidate has to drop
out. They would likely choose a replacement candidate since there isn't
time for another primary. My guess is that they would choose Joe Biden.
Since the public votes for electors and the electoral college votes for
president, I think the party could tell their electors to vote for the
replacement candidate. |
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S******8
发帖数: 24594 | 16 http://www.conradmblack.com/1221/november-8th-predictions
Before outlining my predictions for November 8th, let me first offer this
disclaimer: I am no statistician, do not consult computer algorithms, and
have no experience as a pollster. I am happy to leave all of that to
professionals like Nate Silver. However, my experience as an author of
American history, biographer of two American presidents (who between them,
ran ten times for national office from 1920 to 1972), and as someone who has
cl... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 17 换bernie还是不换 是个问题
[在 gemini2012 (双子AB) 的大作中提到：]
:她drop out,对她身体有好处，对川普的胜选也有好处。
:理由如下：
:她筹的钱肯定不希望用在别人身上，别人也没她那么会筹钱。民主党竞选，靠的就是
钱，没钱就买不到媒体，买不到工作人员，买不到选票。
:她的那一班人马，也不会立即全身心投入到别人的竞选中去，换个新人凑齐一班人马
都不是一天两天的事。
:还有那些认为她从政经历长，适合做总统的人，换了别人未必会拥护
:想美国出个女总统的人，如果换了男候选人，有可能就不投了。
:民主党内部也有pollster的，经常性的poll，如果换别人比她更有希望，早换了。
:最重要的一点，美国的大选，不仅是大众投票，还有electors，而最终的结果由
:electors决定。
:有29个州和华盛顿特区的electors是绑定了的，谁得到的popular票数多，谁就得到
:.......... |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 18 Controversial issues[edit]
Studies of the electoral process in Florida have been done by Democrats,
Republicans, and other interested parties, that reveal various flaws and
improprieties. Controversies included:
All five major U.S. TV news networks (CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox and CNN) made the
incorrect assumption that all of Florida's polls closed at 7:00 p.m. EST.
They reported this incorrect information at 7:00. In fact, the westernmost
counties in Florida had polls open for another hour, until 8:00 ... 阅读全帖 |
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l********7
发帖数: 2974 | 19 有意思的一个问题，我刚才从统计数据和模型看了下，有两点客观原因很容易解释
Sanders的失利：
1、Sanders的所谓人气高，统计意义上，并不一致，只是在primary开始之后的3月份人
气冲了一下。
2、其次，Sanders的人气只集中在了少数几个州，远远低于Clinton人气的统计覆盖范
围。
所以，统计上看，Sanders的人气更像是outlier，有暴涨暴跌、地域集中的特点，而
Clinton的人气具有平稳一致的表现。
不过这两人算是close call，相对预测的不确定性较大。我的模型给出如下的回测结果：
Predict Clinton : Sanders = 0.54873 (2583) : 0.45127 (2124) （Expected）
Actual Clinton : Sanders = 0.60378 (2842) : 0.39622 (1865)
Clinton Electoral Votes: 2842 (MAP: 2460.947, range: 2135-3074)
Sanders Electoral Votes: 1865 (MAP: 2246.05... 阅读全帖 |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 20 popular vote， electoral vote 差距会高于100票。
也就是那个30%的候选人electoral vote至少差100票以上。
到选举日自己看，但要相信科学。
: 你说的是popular votes还是electoral votes？
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HQ
发帖数: 19201 | 21 A candidate must receive an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently
270) to win the presidency or the vice presidency. If no candidate receives
a majority in the election for president or vice president, that election is
determined via a contingency procedure established by the Twelfth Amendment
. In such a situation, the House chooses one of the top three presidential
electoral vote-winners as the president, while the Senate chooses one of the
top two vice presidential electoral vote-wi... 阅读全帖 |
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h*********d
发帖数: 336 | 22 昨天回家问女儿知道现在有人提出因为希拉里赢了popular vote, 所以应该算她赢了，
她的看法，以下是我们的对话
我：你知道为啥希拉里赢了popular vote，缺输了electoral vote吗？
女儿：知道啊，因为Trump在每个他赢的州都赢得不多，但只要赢了，就是所有的选举
人票；而他在他输的几个州里，却输的比较惨，所以绝对数就比较大。
我：对，就比如举个极端的例子，希拉里只赢了加州和纽约州，她可以得到84张选举人
票，但这两个地方她一共比Trump多了300万popular vote。而Trump呢，在其他所有州
都赢了，可每个州只赢了5万popular vote，这样他有454张选举人票但可能只赢了希拉
里250万popular vote。所以算下来还是希拉里比Trump多50万popular vote。对了，你
知道选举人票怎么来的吗？
女儿：知道啊，选举人票是按照各州人口定的，所以加州纽约的选举人票也很多。这相
当于在每一个州搞个全民公投，选出来一个最有利于本州的候选人。
我：你还知道这个？好，我再问你，那为啥我们在national wide 不用popular... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 23 按照 Founding Fathers 的意思，普通民众一般辨别力不强，容易受到误导，所以不能
让民众直选，而是让各州选出德高望重的 elector 代表本州进行投票。所以依宪法的
本意，elector 本身就应该按自己的判断来投票，而不应盲从民意。历史上 elector
违背民意投票的例子多的是。
这次选举完全可以印证立宪先贤的智慧了。看小左们被 MSM 洗脑得多彻底。老妖婆赢
了 popular vote，多亏 electroral college 的设计，才没让它攫取权力。 |
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s******r
发帖数: 21961 | 26 这两个华盛顿州议员应该投希拉里，但他们不愿意了。
左逼现在搞得连英文都看不懂了？
Despite the fact these two electors are seeking to keep Donald Trump from
presidency, they’ve made it clear that they are NOT in favor of electing
Hillary Clinton either. Both have said they weren’t planning on voting for
her on December 19 when the electoral college members officially cast their
ballots. They’ve instead decided it would be best to persuade other members
to write in John Kasich or Mitt Romney. Either would be a better decision
than Trump ... 阅读全帖 |
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M********n
发帖数: 4650 | 27 话不是这么说的。这次选举希拉里可能对形势估计不足，或者对作弊系统过于相信，导
致electoral votes输掉。后台再怎么强大，要控制全国人民的投票还是有困难的。
但是Electoral College没多少人了，比较容易买通、控制，而且对主党来说是背水一
战了。关键还是这个过程并不违法，是个合法的过程。相反地，武装暴动却是实打实的
违法。这种违法而且会大规模流血的行动，事到临头多数人都会重新估量。至于军队，
那是要听命令的，一旦Electoral College翻盘，老川就没有正当的身份来调动军队，
主动权尽失。那时候就太晚了。
所以翻盘这种事情，虽然看起来很ridiculous和unlikely，但希望老川还是不要掉以轻
心，当前主党的疯狂是不能低估的。把这个苗头扼杀在摇篮里是成本最低的做法。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 29 现行的左逼梦是Hamilton Electors，让希婆release所有的赢得的elector，并策反38
名共和党的elector, 凑成270投给希婆与川普之外的第三人为总统，据说左逼们现在支
持的第三人是罗姆尼 :) |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 30 这个不可能的，所以我说他们梦想到疯狂的地步了！
: 现行的左逼梦是Hamilton Electors，让希婆release所有的赢得的elector，并
策反38
: 名共和党的elector, 凑成270投给希婆与川普之外的第三人为总统，据说左逼们
现在支
: 持的第三人是罗姆尼 :)
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c*****e
发帖数: 737 | 31 Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta on Monday backed Electoral
College electors who are asking to receive an intelligence briefing on
foreign interventions into the 2016 election ahead of their December 19 vote.
The statement is the closest Podesta and Clinton's former campaign
infrastructure have come calling into question the legitimacy of Donald
Trump's presidency and suggests that Clinton's campaign feels Electoral
College members should do the same. |
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D**s
发帖数: 6361 | 32 西婆别闹了，四年后再选
[在 coollpe (coollpe) 的大作中提到：]
:Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta on Monday backed
Electoral College electors who are asking to receive an intelligence
briefing on
:foreign interventions into the 2016 election ahead of their December 19
vote.
:The statement is the closest Podesta and Clinton's former campaign
:infrastructure have come calling into question the legitimacy of Donald
:Trump's presidency and suggests that Clinton's campaign feels
Electoral
:College members... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 33 如果trump支持者威胁elector,媒体肯定铺天盖地的报道，谴责。而且会让trump公开谴
责。
拉里的支持者骚扰，威胁trump electors,媒体报道居然是elector应该仔细考虑，该不
该投trump.这双重标准已经无法用语言来形容了。 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 34 Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called for change in the Electoral College
system on Monday as electors across the country gathered to cast their
ballots.
Sanders noted Clinton’s lead over president-elect Donald Trump in the
nationwide popular vote in arguing that the 200-year-old system should be
changed.
He said such a result was not democratic, strongly suggesting that the
Electoral College should not be used to decide the winner of the
presidential election. |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 35 下面第一个 comments：
It still baffles me how many idiots don't know why the electoral college
exists. It's to prevent runaway majority voting (tyranny of the majority).
We are a representative constitutional republic, not a democracy.
Without the electoral college, a few major cities would decide every single
election, resulting in major under-representation of rural areas. The
electoral college is in place to prevent a Rome 2.0 from happening. |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 36 Ruth Bader Ginsburg said Monday that she’d like to change the Electoral
College.
The Supreme Court justice, a liberal who has reached icon status for her
many young followers, was at Stanford University on Monday night for a talk
on the meaning of life when a student in the audience asked her what she’d
like to change about society.
She offered that there are “some things I would like to change, one is the
Electoral College,” without providing more details. She seemed like she was
about to offer... 阅读全帖 |
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h****r
发帖数: 258 | 37 Inside the Left’s Plans to Occupy Trump
Veterans of Occupy Wall Street are dusting off an old protest tactic for a
new era.
NEW YORK — One week after Charlottesville, “the Resistance” is planning
its next move. Members of a group calling itself “Refuse Fascism” met in
five cities around the country on Saturday with the intent to plan and
organize nationwide demonstrations later this year. Their goal, according to
Eva Sahana, a 22 year-old organizer, is simply to “drive out the Trump and
Pence fa... 阅读全帖 |
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 38 How America Can Rise Again
Is America going to hell? After a year of economic calamity that many fear has sent us into irreversible decline, the author finds reassurance in the peculiarly American cycle of crisis and renewal, and in the continuing strength of the forces that have made the country great: our university system, our receptiveness to immigration, our culture of innovation. In most significant ways, the U.S. remains the envy of the world. But here’s the alarming problem: our governin... 阅读全帖 |
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k**n
发帖数: 6198 | 39 为什么要替他们出头?黑人为什么要出来反AA?
参见"Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make It Harder for Blacks to
Succeed" by Jason Riley
"When it comes to affirmative action, Jason Riley asks the key question: “
Do racial preferences work? What is the track record?” Like many other well
-meaning and nice-sounding policies, affirmative action cannot survive
factual scrutiny"
民主党并不是代表少数族裔,只是需要少数族裔.
2007年,奥巴在slema演讲之后两周希拉里就来了.....当年肯尼迪和尼克松抢的就是黑
人的选票
Kennedy received 112,827 (0.17%) more votes than Nixon nationwide and
... 阅读全帖 |
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d****g
发帖数: 7460 | 40 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: StephenKing (金博士), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 为什么亚裔远离了共和党？ (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Feb 5 23:46:32 2016, 美东)
发信人: StephenKing (金博士), 信区: USANews
标 题: 为什么亚裔远离了共和党？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Feb 5 23:44:40 2016, 美东)
1992年，只有36%的亚裔投票给民主党
2008年，64%的亚裔投票给民主党
2012年，73%的亚裔投票给民主党
是亚裔吃福利的，比其他族群多吗？
不是。
2009年统计表明，亚裔的收入远高于其他族群。
亚裔的中位家庭收入是65500美元，白人是51900美元，西班牙裔38000美元，黑人32600
美元。
那么，是亚裔无知吗？
在美国，教育程度最高的族裔，是亚裔。
那么，是亚裔犯贱吗？
美国新闻版的极右会大声说，是！然后用各种各样的恶心的污言秽语招呼任何跟他们政
见不同的华人。
我想说，你们赢了。
你们20... 阅读全帖 |
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r*****e
发帖数: 7853 | 41 Road to 270: Electoral College map
Clinton's electoral vote total is at 268 when you add up all the states
that are solidly or leaning in her direction and Donald Trump's is 204
when you combine all the states that are solidly or leaning in his direction
. That leaves six remaining battleground contests worth a total of 66
electoral votes in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina,
and the second congressional district in and around Omaha, Nebraska.
Solid Republican:
Alabama (9),... 阅读全帖 |
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J*********s
发帖数: 16 | 42 你说的是elector吧？议员不能选总统，除非没有人过270。
elector的话会有faithless elector，不过按照今年的这种比例，这种根本影响不到结
果。 |
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S*********g
发帖数: 24893 | 43 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: StephenKing (金博士), 信区: USANews
标 题: 为什么亚裔远离了共和党？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Feb 5 23:44:40 2016, 美东)
1992年，只有36%的亚裔投票给民主党
2008年，64%的亚裔投票给民主党
2012年，73%的亚裔投票给民主党
是亚裔吃福利的，比其他族群多吗？
不是。
2009年统计表明，亚裔的收入远高于其他族群。
亚裔的中位家庭收入是65500美元，白人是51900美元，西班牙裔38000美元，黑人32600
美元。
那么，是亚裔无知吗？
在美国，教育程度最高的族裔，是亚裔。
那么，是亚裔犯贱吗？
美国新闻版的极右会大声说，是！然后用各种各样的恶心的污言秽语招呼任何跟他们政
见不同的华人。
我想说，你们赢了。
你们2008年就赢了。
你们2012又赢了。
你们帮助民主党赢了。
2016年，你们还会赢！
下面这篇文章，详尽分析了为什么亚裔越来越远离共和党的原因。不一定全面，但是，
文章提到了金博士永远不会投任何共和党人任何一票的原因！
During... 阅读全帖 |
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l**n
发帖数: 7272 | 45 马州primary是06/24。
=========
Please - if you haven't done so, make sure you know which electoral (
congressional, state, councilmanic) districts you live in. Here's a link to
an electoral district locator:
https://voterservices.elections.state.md.us/PollingPlaceSearch
These are the main countywide/statewide offices - those that will appear on
ALL of our ballots:
-County Executive
At-large seats on the County Council (there are four)
Board of Education (BOE districts refer only to the ... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 46 Charles McCarry, When Kennedy Blinked. Wall Street Journal, May 28, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487048166
04576335594159928256.html?mod=WSJ_Books_LS_Books_5
(book review on Frederick Kempe, Berlin 1961; Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the
most dangerous place on earth. Putnam 2011)
Note:
(a) benighted (adj):
"1: overtaken by darkness or night
2: existing in a state of intellectual, moral, or social darkness :
UNENLIGHTENED"
(b) primal (adj; Latin primus, first): "first in importanc... 阅读全帖 |
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l********7
发帖数: 2974 | 47 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: leibniz137 (莱布尼兹), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: 原来桑德斯人气也比老婊子高很多可还是输了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 24 02:26:01 2016, 美东)
有意思的一个问题，我刚才从统计数据和模型看了下，有两点客观原因很容易解释
Sanders的失利：
1、Sanders的所谓人气高，统计意义上，并不一致，只是在primary开始之后的3月份人
气冲了一下。
2、其次，Sanders的人气只集中在了少数几个州，远远低于Clinton人气的统计覆盖范
围。
所以，统计上看，Sanders的人气更像是outlier，有暴涨暴跌、地域集中的特点，而
Clinton的人气具有平稳一致的表现。
不过这两人算是close call，相对预测的不确定性较大。我的模型给出如下的回测结果：
Predict Clinton : Sanders = 0.54873 (2583) : 0.45127 (2124) （Expected）
Actual Clinton : Sanders = 0.... 阅读全帖 |
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l****e
发帖数: 609 | 48 (一)历史篇
（1）总统辩论
1980年里根和卡特的十月28日辩论之前，卡特的Favorable 和支持率都很高。当时10月
28日辩论的收看人数是个记录(80+million) ，辩论之后，获得辩论胜利的里根扭转局
势，他的Favorable 和支持率急速上升，两个星期后当选总统。
今年的辩论的收视率也是个记录（84+millions），还有人看网络直播的。Hillary获得
了辩论的胜利，本来她的Favorable 和支持率本来就比trump的要好，辩论之后她的他
的Favorable 和支持率扶摇直上。
虽然第二场副总统辩论是Pence赢了，但是9月26日的第一次辩论是这四场辩论中最重要
的一场，而且观看的人那么多，由此推论Hillary必会当选。
（2）Favorable 和 Unfavorable rating
http://www.gallup.com/poll/193376/trump-leads-clinton-historically-bad-image-ratings.aspx
Favorable 和 Unfavorable是一个重要指标。根据历史数据，从1956年... 阅读全帖 |
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P*****t
发帖数: 4978 | 49 美国精英们搞得越来越nasty了。
Election 2012: Struggling States May Cancel Or Delay Primaries
MONTGOMERY, Ala. — In these tough times, even how we nominate presidents is
facing the threat of the budget ax.
Lawmakers and elections officials in at least six cash-strapped states are
hoping to move or replace their stand-alone 2012 presidential primaries,
sacrificing some influence over who wins the nominations in favor of saving
millions of dollars.
The moves to either delay primaries by several months or hand ... 阅读全帖 |
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P*****t
发帖数: 4978 | 50 美俄对抗新一轮又来了
Putin 'elected Russian president'
Vladimir Putin has been elected Russian president for the third time, exit
polls suggest, after spending the last four years as the country's PM.
The exit polls gave Mr Putin about 60% of the vote, meaning that he should
avoid a run-off with his nearest rival, Communist Gennady Zyuganov.
Officials say turnout was higher than for the last election in 2008.
But opposition groups have reported widespread fraud, with many people
voting more than once.
The... 阅读全帖 |
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