f*******8
发帖数: 1430 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 EB23 讨论区 】
发信人: fakaoti08 (fakati08), 信区: EB23
标 题: Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast Push
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jan 12 21:49:10 2013, 美东)
President Obama plans to push Congress to move quickly in the coming months
on an ambitious overhaul of the immigration system that would include a path
to citizenship for most of the 11 million illegal immigrants in the country
, senior administration officials and lawmakers said last week.
Mr. Obama and Senate Democrats will propose the ... 阅读全帖 |
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G*******1
发帖数: 6411 | 2 1100万非法移民？！劳模只会越来越多
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100375167
Obama to Seek Immigration Overhaul
President Obama plans to push Congress to move quickly in the coming months
on an ambitious overhaul of the immigration system that would include a path
to citizenship for most of the 11 million illegal immigrants in the country
, senior administration officials and lawmakers said last week.
Mr. Obama and Senate Democrats will propose the changes in one comprehensive
bill, the officials said, resisting effort... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 How Obama Betrayed America
A policy of appeasement and intervention abets our enemies.
By David Horowitz
“If we have to use force, it is because we are America. We are the
indispensable nation. We stand tall. We see farther into the future.”
— Madeleine Albright, secretary of state (1997–2001), Clinton
administration
It is a judgment on Barack Obama’s timorous, apologetic, and irresponsible
conduct of foreign affairs that Madeleine Albright’s words, spoken little
more than 15 years ago, now sou... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 Guilty Verdicts in Liu Trial
The Former Campaign Treasurer, Fundraiser for City Comptroller John Liu Were
Found Guilty of Various Charges Involving Campaign Fraud.
By SEAN GARDINER And MICHAEL HOWARD SAUL
A federal jury found two former associates of New York City Comptroller John
Liu guilty Thursday of various counts of campaign-finance fraud, a setback
for the comptroller who vowed to continue his bid for mayor amid renewed
questions about his campaign's viability.
The jury convicted Xing ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 5 Fighting a law that is unfair, unworkable and unaffordable is reasonable and
necessary.
Now that the government shutdown has ended and the president has preserved
ObamaCare for the time being, it's worth explaining why my organization, the
Heritage Foundation, and other conservatives chose this moment to fight—
and why we will continue to fight. The reason is simple: to protect the
American people from the harmful effects of this law.
I spent a good part of my summer traveling around the country... 阅读全帖 |
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r****p
发帖数: 480 | 6 已经被扒皮了：
A check by CNN on Wednesday of traveling family members on the UK Electoral
Roll showed an email address associated with 18-year-old Hamza Mahmood that
links to a suspicious Facebook page.
The page appears to belong to a Birmingham resident with a similar name,
whose occupation is listed as Supervisor at Taliban and Leader at al-Qaeda.
When asked by reporters about the Facebook link, the family said the email
listed on the electoral roll is incorrect, missing some characters, and that
th... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 7 “通过的宪法《第十四修正案》只把黑人加了进去”是你的原话。我把十四修正案的原
文一字不差贴在下面，你告诉我那句话是“只把黑人加了进去”。
Amendment XIV
Section 1.
All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the
jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state
wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall
abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor
shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without
due process of law; nor deny to any per... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 8 “通过的宪法《第十四修正案》只把黑人加了进去”是你的原话。我把十四修正案的原
文一字不差贴在下面，你告诉我那句话是“只把黑人加了进去”。
Amendment XIV
Section 1.
All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the
jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state
wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall
abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor
shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without
due process of law; nor deny to any per... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 9 Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models
that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades.
A third model run by Moody’s Analytics predicts Democrats will win the
White House, in part because of President Obama’s rising approval rating.
The three models are being challenged like never before by the presence of
GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump, whose campaign has shaken up
politics.
Trump’s fights with Ted Cruz and his other GOP rivals hav... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 10 RE. 宾州是completely unbound.
Pennsylvania has 18 congressional districts multiplied by three delegates
equals 54 delegates. Why are those delegates important? Because they are
completely unbound.
In some contests, most prominently Florida and Ohio, the statewide winner
gets all the delegates. Many other states give the statewide winner the
leader, bonus, and ten of the electoral delegates. The rest of the electoral
delegates, those allocated by congressional district, go to the candidate
that won ... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 11 Los Angeles TV station discovers hundreds of dead people voting
By Thomas Lifson
Every time a state tries to enact reasonable voter identification
legislation, Democrats (and only Democrats) rush to assure us that vote
fraud is very rare.
Unless you look for it, as the Los Angeles CBS affiliate did:
A comparison of records by David Goldstein, investigative reporter for
CBS2/KCAL9, has revealed hundreds of so-called dead voters in Southern
California, a vast majority of them in Los Angeles Co... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 12 Speaking exclusively to Breitbart News, political polling pioneer Pat
Caddell said the Reuters news service was guilty of an unprecedented act of
professional malpractice after it announced Friday it has dropped the “
Neither” option from their presidential campaign tracking polls and then
went back and reconfigured previously released polls to present different
results with a reinterpretation of the “Neither” responses in those polls.
“This comes as close as I have ever seen to cooking the resu... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 14 Manipulating U.S. Elections: 10 Ways Voting Is Being Hacked by the Left
By J. Christian Adams September 19, 2016
1. Block Citizenship Verification
...
he Obama Justice Department has also interfered with citizenship
verification. With the collusion of Soros-funded organizations, the DOJ has
tried to stop states like Kansas and Georgia from verifying citizenship of
voters.
Sponsored
There’s one reason for this: aliens who registered illegally tend to vote
for Democrats.
---------------------
2. E... 阅读全帖 |
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q*z
发帖数: 715 | 15 But history shows, that for all its faults, polling is a better predictor of
electoral success in a broad electorate, than crowd size. |
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发帖数: 1 | 16 Michael Straw, a senior at Penn State University, returned to campus this
week, put on a crisp blue suit, and walked into a Trump buzzsaw.
The president of the school’s chapter of College Republicans had a sense of
what he was in for. Less than two weeks before, the group had announced in
a Facebook post that they would not endorse Donald Trump after holding an
online vote — a move that sparked outrage, including a call from the
chairman of the Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans for ... 阅读全帖 |
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l*********o
发帖数: 3091 | 17 Replacing a member of a major-party ticket would be exceedingly rare, though
not unprecedented. This happened in 1972 when Democratic nominee George
McGovern’s running mate -- Sen. Thomas Eagleton -- withdrew from the race
in July after it was revealed he had undergone electric shock treatment for
mental health issues.
Eagleton was replaced in August by Sargent Shriver as the new vice
presidential nominee. The McGovern/Shriver ticket went on to lose the race
in a landslide to incumbent President... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 18 By J. Christian Adams September 19, 2016
1. Block Citizenship Verification
...
he Obama Justice Department has also interfered with citizenship
verification. With the collusion of Soros-funded organizations, the DOJ has
tried to stop states like Kansas and Georgia from verifying citizenship of
voters.
Sponsored
There’s one reason for this: aliens who registered illegally tend to vote
for Democrats.
---------------------
2. Early Voting
...
There are so many reasons early voting is bad, but perha... 阅读全帖 |
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l****e
发帖数: 609 | 19 (一)历史篇
（1）总统辩论是job interview
1980年里根和卡特的十月28日辩论之前，卡特的Favorable 和支持率都很高。当时10月
28日辩论的收看人数是个记录(80+million) ，辩论之后，获得辩论胜利的里根扭转局
势，他的Favorable 和支持率急速上升，两个星期后当选总统。
今年的辩论的收视率也是个记录（84+millions），还有人看网络直播的。Hillary获得
了辩论的胜利，本来她的Favorable 和支持率本来就比trump的要好，辩论之后她的他
的Favorable 和支持率扶摇直上。
虽然第二场副总统辩论是Pence赢了，但是9月26日的第一次辩论是这四场辩论中最重要
的一场，而且观看的人那么多，Trump的job interview已经失败，由此推论Hillary必
会当选。
（2）Favorable 和 Unfavorable rating
http://www.gallup.com/poll/193376/trump-leads-clinton-historically-bad-image-ratings.aspx
Favor... 阅读全帖 |
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l****e
发帖数: 609 | 20 (一)历史篇
（1）总统辩论是job interview
1980年里根和卡特的十月28日辩论之前，卡特的Favorable 和支持率都很高。当时10月
28日辩论的收看人数是个记录(80+million) ，辩论之后，获得辩论胜利的里根扭转局
势，他的Favorable 和支持率急速上升，两个星期后当选总统。
今年的辩论的收视率也是个记录（84+millions），还有人看网络直播的。Hillary获得
了辩论的胜利，本来她的Favorable 和支持率本来就比trump的要好，辩论之后她的他
的Favorable 和支持率扶摇直上。
虽然第二场副总统辩论是Pence赢了，但是9月26日的第一次辩论是这四场辩论中最重要
的一场，而且观看的人那么多，Trump的job interview已经失败，由此推论Hillary必
会当选。
（2）Favorable 和 Unfavorable rating
http://www.gallup.com/poll/193376/trump-leads-clinton-historically-bad-image-ratings.aspx
Favor... 阅读全帖 |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 21 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 22 打烂老婊砸走狗的碧莲
Criticism of presidential forecasts[edit]
In a series of posts in 2011 and 2012, FiveThirtyEight criticized the
forecasting methods that relied on macro-economic modeling of the electoral
outcomes.[538 80][538 81] According to Silver, models based primarily on the
macro-level performance of the economy (such as unemployment, inflation,
and the performance of the stock market), presidential approval ratings (
when an incumbent is running for re-election), and the ideological
positionin... 阅读全帖 |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 23 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
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g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 24 打烂老婊砸走狗的碧莲
Criticism of presidential forecasts[edit]
In a series of posts in 2011 and 2012, FiveThirtyEight criticized the
forecasting methods that relied on macro-economic modeling of the electoral
outcomes.[538 80][538 81] According to Silver, models based primarily on the
macro-level performance of the economy (such as unemployment, inflation,
and the performance of the stock market), presidential approval ratings (
when an incumbent is running for re-election), and the ideological
positionin... 阅读全帖 |
|
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 25 这个 FiveThirtyEight 是 New York Times 旗下的打手，和飞机上的鸡西卡老太太是
一路货
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United
States electoral college,[538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling
aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August
2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It
was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. |
|
g******t
发帖数: 18158 | 26 打烂老婊砸走狗的碧莲
Criticism of presidential forecasts[edit]
In a series of posts in 2011 and 2012, FiveThirtyEight criticized the
forecasting methods that relied on macro-economic modeling of the electoral
outcomes.[538 80][538 81] According to Silver, models based primarily on the
macro-level performance of the economy (such as unemployment, inflation,
and the performance of the stock market), presidential approval ratings (
when an incumbent is running for re-election), and the ideological
positionin... 阅读全帖 |
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M******e
发帖数: 1193 | 27 资料整理自https://www.reddit.com/r/DNCleaks/，主体骨架来自于帖子（https://
www.reddit.com/r/DNCleaks/），会逐步补充整理。
每封邮件的链接地址形如https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/xxxx (
xxxx为代表EMAILID的四位数字)
请大家务必不吝对帖子内容赐以宝贵的意见。
利用财务漏洞来修补赤字。
EMAILID 2170 Attachment How to make $8 Million campaign debt disappear for
Hillary? For example by "renting voter and donor information lists" from the
Hillary 2008 campaign. Renting them with other organizations that they
control, thus funneling money back into the campaign to cancel... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 29 LASHBACK– Washington Post in 2014: Non-Citizen Voting Gave Democrats 60th
Vote for Obamacare
A 2014 report published by the Washington Post documented how non-citizen
foreign nationals voting in U.S. elections “likely gave” Democrats the
critical 60th vote they needed to pass Obamacare.
The report explains that non-citizens who illegally voted in 2008, and who
electorally “tended to favor Democrats”, could have handed the 2008
Minnesota Senate election to Al Franken, which gave Senate Democrats ... 阅读全帖 |
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k**k
发帖数: 214 | 30 https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/donald-trump-small-lead-three-145721448.
html
Donald Trump found himself ahead in three national polls Friday morning.
The Republican presidential nominee held a lead of 1 point in the Investors
Business Daily/TIPP tracking poll over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in
a four-way race that included Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green
Party nominee Jill Stein. Trump led Clinton 41% to 40% in the poll.
Trump also held a 2-point lead in the right-leaning ... 阅读全帖 |
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l********7
发帖数: 2974 | 31 Trump会以压倒性的优势，胜过Clinton，出任下一届美国总统。
这里，我不讲人品，不讲政治，不讲经济，不讲道德，甚至也不讲法律，仅仅依据客观
数据(Google Trends)建立模型，下面是定量模型预测的得票数结果。
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
2016 美国总统选举得票数（Electoral Votes）预测：
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
总票数（Total Electoral Votes）：538
可能的得票数范围：
Clinton：117 － 184 （21% - 35%）
Trump：354 － 421 （65% - 79%）
最可能或者平均期望得票数范围：
Clinton：149 － 156 （27% － 29%）
Trump：382 － 389 （71% - 73%）
顺便提一下对Clinton最有利、对Trump最不利的两个州：
首先，Mississippi，Clinton最有可能取胜，Trump最有可能失利。
其次，Iowa，Clinton也有较大胜算，Trump的胜算较低。
（注意：模型给出的这两个州的结果，... 阅读全帖 |
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l********7
发帖数: 2974 | 32 Trump会以压倒性的优势，胜过Clinton，出任下一届美国总统。
这里，我不讲人品，不讲政治，不讲经济，不讲道德，甚至也不讲法律，仅仅依据客观
数据(Google Trends)建立模型，下面是定量模型预测的得票数结果。
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
2016 美国总统选举得票数（Electoral Votes）预测：
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
总票数（Total Electoral Votes）：538
可能的得票数范围：
Clinton：117 － 184 （21% - 35%）
Trump：354 － 421 （65% - 79%）
最可能或者平均期望得票数范围：
Clinton：149 － 156 （27% － 29%）
Trump：382 － 389 （71% - 73%）
顺便提一下对Clinton最有利、对Trump最不利的两个州：
首先，Mississippi，Clinton最有可能取胜，Trump最有可能失利。
其次，Iowa，Clinton也有较大胜算，Trump的胜算较低。
（注意：模型给出的这两个州的结果，... 阅读全帖 |
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l*****o
发帖数: 19235 | 35 Over the past month, polls have shown us winning Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Florida,
Nevada, and North Carolina. If we maintain our leads in those six states,
we can reliably claim 266 electoral votes. Hillary can claim 193. But we’d
still have 4 electoral votes to go.
Polls show us close in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. Winning
just any one of those states would lead us to victory.
挑战还是很大的。 |
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t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | 36 The Mission of PollMole:
-Promote Free and fair Elections -Collect polling data from tens of millions
of voters -Canvas all 180,000 precincts in the US in real-time, 24/7 -Count
everyone’s vote, to make sure that everyone’s vote counts -Return
Electoral Power back into the hands of ‘We the People’ -Restore
transparency to, and faith in, the electoral process -Ensure “One Man, One
Vote” -Detect Election Fraud with very high accuracy
Why is PollMole Important and Why Should You Care?
No matter whi... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****e
发帖数: 215 | 37 TRUMP内部统计-TRUMP 266票，希婆193票
大家有没有收到TEAM TRUMP昨天晚上发来的MEMO？
Over the past month, polls have shown us winning Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Florida,
Nevada, and North Carolina.
If we maintain our leads in those six states, we can reliably claim 266
electoral votes. Hillary can claim 193. But weód still have 4 electoral
votes to go.
Polls show us close in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. Winning
just any one of those states would lead us to victory. |
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t**********r
发帖数: 882 | 38 你说得是一个可能性。可是美国的现状是共和党其实从electoral college的制度上占
了不少光。解决你说得问题的方法就是取消electoral college，你可以问问任何一个
共和党的人，看有同意的吗？
90 |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 39 这还是FBI之前的数据
: popular vote， electoral vote 差距会高于100票。
: 也就是那个30%的候选人electoral vote至少差100票以上。
: 到选举日自己看，但要相信科学。
: |
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p******e
发帖数: 897 | 41 LaS VEGAS—The line Friday evening stretched outside Cardenas Market in Las
Vegas, teeming with Hispanic voters eager to cast ballots.
Many had to wait for hours on the last day of a fortnight of early voting in
Nevada, plied by food and exhortations from activists who didn’t have to
do much. Election officials had to keep the polling place open an extra
three hours to accommodate the line, which was described thusly on Twitter
by Yvanna Cancela, the political director for the majority Hispanic C... 阅读全帖 |
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f********8
发帖数: 5601 | 45 Why the Establishment Was Wrong
NEWT GINGRICH·WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2016
One of the most amazing things about Donald Trump’s historic victory was
how badly almost everyone in media and politics misread the country.
Time and again in the months before the election, the establishment
suggested I was either insincere or insane in predicting a Trump victory.
Our differences reflected two very different understandings of reality.
The establishment’s self-reassuring assumption was that the Amer... 阅读全帖 |
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G****e
发帖数: 11198 | 47 这里面有关popular vote vs electoral vote，是两个选举系统下的事情。在electoal
college下，虽然希拉里得票多，但只是说她得票多，并不能下结论她更受欢迎。这就
像冬天偶尔几天气温20多度，你不能说这是夏天。想要说她是否更受欢迎，要在一人一
票制，全国一起统计，而不是按electoral college体系下。因为这会导致选举策略有
所不同。如果按一人一票制，则要去人口稠密的地方搞拉力，而不是那些人口稀少的州
。两个不同选举体制的各自得票数，不能推出一样的结论：谁更受欢迎。这是一个很微
妙的逻辑谬误：用的大前提错了，得到的结论也会错的。很微妙的逻辑关系。 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 49 Dear Democrats: Here Is Why You Lost
Thomas Wheatley
Law Student, Antonin Scalia Law School
11:30 AM 11/11/2016
Behold. The end of the 2016 presidential election. The sun has risen on
November 9, and Americans resume their daily lives.
The victor is Donald J. Trump, a businessman and television personality from
New York City, in an extraordinary upset with little, if any, historical
precedent.
Only a few weeks prior to election night, the Democratic candidate, former
Secretary of State Hillary C... 阅读全帖 |
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i**y
发帖数: 1170 | 50 不止没question，反而很欣赏，几乎所有媒体都是这个调调
“poll是希拉里领先几个百分点，Trump一直consistently落后，即使他national poll
打平，electoral college也是非常narrow path，因为他在每个battleground都落后。
”
当时在媒体看来，即使希拉里落后national，electoral college也是稳操胜券
oh |
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