y***n 发帖数: 2318 | 1 5 Principal Reasons Why I'm Still Short Tesla
Aug. 8, 2017 5:29 PM ET|
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4096526-5-principal-reasons-still-short-
tesla
Amit Ghate
Long/short equity, value
Summary
I review my long-standing TSLA short position.
Despite a large run-up in price, I find the reasons to be short the stock
more compelling than ever.
In particular, corporate governance, emerging competition, bloated
valuations and a slow change in sentiment toward the company may help
reverse the stock ru... 阅读全帖 |
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y***n 发帖数: 2318 | 2 "Every normal automaker produces 500 or so beta test units of an all-new car
, especially one that’s produced on an all-new platform. These 500 or so
cars are driven by employees in various stages for at least 1-2 years in all
sorts of climates around the world, so as to be torture-tested."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4103361-tesla-selling-beta-test-cars-
employees-model-3-revenue-recognition-remains-joke?app=1&auth_param=1eblcj:
1cqgf84:1d12846d66ad8bbf8e02da579e8000df&dr=1
Tesla Selling... 阅读全帖 |
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f*******e 发帖数: 5277 | 3 你这个问题很好的。我来算一下
1. 2016年新车销售大概80 million
2. 按10k miles算
3. 这里方法上不对。汽油从gal转换到TWh用GGE的话相当于没有考虑内燃机不到30%的
能量转化效率。更合理的方法是直接用电车的平均电耗,用kWh/100 mile表示。不同车
型当然不一样,Model S大概是33,Leaf是30,Chevy Bolt是28,Model 3还没有正式数
据但根据满电量和最大里程以及中间的折损关系,大概在28-30之间(有人在网站源代
码上找到个23的数字,但我不太相信,而且这里的原则是保守计算)。电池电机发展空
间应该比发展了100年的内燃机要大,所以这些数字在未来10-20年应该更低,但暂时先
不考虑。这里取30 kWh/100 mile
4. 得到新车(假设全电)消耗电能240 Twh。再考虑到输电用电过程的损失大概是20%
,需求端需要的电量是300 TWh。
5. OECD国家2016年renewable energy(由于争议,核电排除在外)发电量是2500 TWh
https://www.iea.org/newsroom/n... 阅读全帖 |
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S**C 发帖数: 2964 | 4 150 mile, ~45 kWh, 10 min charging, 0.27 MW charge rate. Average US
household electricity usage is around 30 KWh per day, or at a rate of 1.25
kW, or less than 0.5% what you are asking for.
Swapping battery may be a far more realistic business model. |
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n****i 发帖数: 1772 | 5 对model 3需求,补贴和产量的讨论套路会在以后几周占据主流媒体。他的基本假设没有
任何数据支持,这种业余猜想没有任何意义。
没有人知道高配版tesla model 3的销量上限是多少,尤其是没有任何数据的情况下。
五月六月各卖了6000台不到,7月卖了一万四。7月底放开order后在一周内有3万7千个
用户使用信用卡付了non-fundable $2500(使用支票和银行ACH转账的无法统计,只有特
斯拉自己知道),根据这个数字,特斯拉在7-9月卖出5万高配版是大概率事件,风险是
产能。
低配版的利润率是主要另外一个问题:电池成本。如果你认为特斯拉电池成本和bolt/
volt类似($200/kwh左右),低配版是不可能盈利的. 特斯拉声称他们的电池成本在2018
底可以到达甚至低于$100/kwh.
digua关于固定成本的说法并不正确,会计和金融上已经完全考虑进去了这个问题。唯
一可能有猫腻的是售后成本,即保修期内维修和零部件费用,这个是多少会影响到利润
率,但是这个数字现在也没有,大家都是猜测。
35
a
in |
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a****o 发帖数: 6612 | 6 18650电池是松下生产的,其成本不是Tesla说了算。
2170电池的各种材料是采购的,电
池组装是Tesla与松下合作在内华达工厂完成的, 可以假定从电池到电池模块的组装时
特斯拉自己完成的。
显然2170电池的各种原材料的成本即使有下降空间,也非常微薄,因为各种原物料的价
格在疯狂上涨,而且阳极材料等的上游供应商,因为采购量增大,降低价格的可能性非
常小,除了Tesla,还有许多其他汽车厂商在推出电车,上游供应商的谈判余地大。能
够大幅下降的只有组装成本,这个也许有一定的规模效应,但是考虑到Tesla在生产方
面的效率低,因此我怀疑2170的实际生产成本要远远高于140,可能永远无法降到100。
Tesla在澳大利亚的蓄电池项目用的韩国(LG?)的电池,电池是空运到澳大利亚的。
有趣的是,内华达的电池的自动化生产设备,也是从德国空运的。
这种搞法,赚钱的生意也能给折腾到赔钱了。
Semi的售价还只是纸上谈兵。Elon Musk预计(或者说寄希望于)电池的价格降到每kwh
只要$100,但是能不能达到,是另外一种结果。圆柱形的电池好处是灵活,但是生产组
装成本要高于长方块电池。
真... 阅读全帖 |
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a****o 发帖数: 6612 | 7 Tesla给的价格分别是300 mile 的15万和 500 mile 的18万,我把数据说错了。如果电
池价格降低$100 / kwh,应该还是有得赚的。
争论在于500 mile的电池需要1000kwh, 电池价格要是$100/kwh, 电池成本就会占$100
,000。销售额是18万,
但是,同样的电池,可以生产13辆长程的model 3,销售额可达44000 * 13 = 57万。在
电池供应并不充裕的情况下,显然从经济上讲,前者选项并不合适。 |
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t*m 发帖数: 4414 | 8 家住米国东北部,目前用一个电热水器, 50Gallon, 12 warranty, installed on 07/
21/2007
标称每年用电$390.(assuming $0.086/KWh rate) However, the electric rate in
my town is $0.17/KWh.
我应该换成heat pump water heater吗? 花费$1650 installed (包括扔旧热水器), 有
30% federal tax credit.
热水器在地下室,洗衣间,离furnance (oil)有10几米远。
我要不要换呢? |
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m****e 发帖数: 235 | 9 They are both pretty expensive since they are both serve full-requirement
service. (Meaning they buy their power from suppliers for all products:
energy, capacity, renewable energy requirement, egress risk...etc)
And more importantly, NGrid recently signed a contract with an off-shore
wind project. If you read the news, they bought the power at ~21.5 cents at
a 3% escalation. (In short - price will go up)
If you want cheaper electric bill, I suggest you look for a 3rd party
supplier, like Do... 阅读全帖 |
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h*****t 发帖数: 1226 | 10 1200kwH / year, $0.2 /kwH, 是$240 /year.
或者你是说6000 kwH / year?
1200 |
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e*****3 发帖数: 541 | 11 电费账单分两部分:
1.发电
2.输电
输电部分是没法换的,你家的电线杆子是谁家的由不得你做主。
发电部分是可以选的。
大家可以看看这个:(从LEXINGTON email拿来的,供参考,注意,里面有推销员的名字)
From: Peggy Wang <[email protected]
(function(){try{var s,a,i,j,r,c,l,b=document.getElementsByTagName("script");l=b[b.length-1].previousSibling;a=l.getAttribute('data-cfemail');if(a){s='';r=parseInt(a.substr(0,2),16);for(j=2;a.length-j;j+=2){c=parseInt(a.substr(j,2),16)^r;s+=String.fromCharCode(c);}s=document.createTextNode(s);l.parentNode.replaceChild(s,l);}}catch(e){}})();
/* ]]> */
>
To... 阅读全帖 |
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P*****e 发帖数: 313 | 12 我们这里属于Nstar,power supplier 是NRG home。刚开始的rate还行,上个月居然15
.9 cents/kwh. 电费好贵啊。我查了一个,发现现在spark energy 和 conEdison
solution 还比较便宜, 都是10.99 cents/kwh. 大家有用过这两家power supplier吗
?service怎样? |
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e*****3 发帖数: 541 | 13 From my old post. You can call to get a new rate.
From: Peggy Wang <[email protected]
/* */>
To: Lexington Friends <[email protected]
/* */>
Sent: Saturday, September 27, 2014 9:13 PM
Subject: [LexingtonFriends] How you can save on your electric bills, by
signing up with Viridian 3 years fixed plan by the end of this month 9/30/14
- this rate won't last!
Dear friends
As yesterday’s Boston Globe’ front page says the electric rates in state
is climbing up for winter. National Grid is g... 阅读全帖 |
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a*********k 发帖数: 1467 | 14 exactly the same situation here, first two month price was fine, about 9c/
kwh, after two months price jump to 12c/kwh, since I got some united points
for using their service, overall i'm still better off a bit. I switched to
dominion power with fixed price immediately after I found out about the
price hike. |
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a*********k 发帖数: 1467 | 15 exactly the same situation here, first two month price was fine, about 9c/
kwh, after two months price jump to 12c/kwh, since I got some united points
for using their service, overall i'm still better off a bit. I switched to
dominion power with fixed price immediately after I found out about the
price hike. |
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h****o 发帖数: 107 | 16 电费11.8964cent/kwh, 然后是delivery charge 9.3964cent/kwh, 然后各项费用加税
, 然后是加完税的各项费用再收4.5%的sales tax. 大家的电费都是这样的吗?这里面
是不是有什么问题?大家都用哪家便宜的电力公司呀? |
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d*b 发帖数: 21830 | 17 basic service charge $16, delivery charge 11c per kwh. Yes, it is almost 50c
per kwh. if you run your own water heater, your monthly charge will around
thousands dollars. |
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a*o 发帖数: 25262 | 18 20%, 这个百分率说明不了东西 要看钱,多了多少。。算是正常。
每个人的情况不同,电费很复杂,如果你是 Voluntary Time-of-Use Customer 你什么
时候用电多的费用不同,好像搭车一样,peak time 收费比 off peak 贵的。相差 3
倍。。
譬如供应电价钱:off peak 0.06 kWh, peak 0.18 kWh.
不过一般都是一样。
嘿嘿。。复杂吧。 |
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P*****e 发帖数: 313 | 19 现在用的是NRG home,上个月是15.99cents/kwh。网上查了一下,有一个公司叫
conEdison也cover我们这个地方,有10个月的fixed rate at 10.99cents/kwh。有点
想换成这家。但是以前没用过,不知道口碑和服务怎样。在华人上考古了一下,好像纽
约的很多mm用的都是这家,好像是纽约的local supplier。 可是我在网上查了一下这
家公司的review, 有好多complains。有点犹豫要不要换?大家有用过的来说说吗?或
是有更便宜可靠的电力公司推荐? |
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N*******M 发帖数: 3963 | 20 账单一般有三部分, 月费(不用电也要交),输送费,发电费。
输送费要$0.05-0.10/KWH
发电费要$0.10-0.15/KWH |
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b*******m 发帖数: 72 | 21 check electricity rate before install 用电烘干机, you will be surprised.
it is about 28 cents per kwh after 400 kwh. |
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e******r 发帖数: 29 | 22 来自主题: SanFrancisco版 - 太阳能 第一个不了解,对于第二个, 我觉得还是划算的, 我准备买了房子后就自己装一套. 下面的内容是我收集的, 不能保证完
全正确:
Price Breakdown
Everyone in America receives a 30 percent tax credit on solar equipment
purchased and installed by the end of 2010. State incentives can further
compound the savings.
Payback period: The Energy Information Administration lists average U.S
residential electricity prices at 11.23 cents per kwh, as of February 2009.
A panel that puts out 250 kwh a year saves $28.08 annually at that price,
making the payback period just u |
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j****y 发帖数: 1714 | 24 4天,每天12.1 Kwh.
后面26天,每天baseline 只有11.0 Kwh.
居然前后两段base line 还不一样。太奇怪了 |
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l***i 发帖数: 1943 | 25 现在购买$0.117/kwh的单价12 month fix的plan值得么?
还是选择month to month的plan?
month to month这个月单价0.09/kwh不算很贵,
但是据说单价根据月份会有变动,到了夏天是不是会飚涨? |
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p****n 发帖数: 9263 | 26 原先都14c, 15c/kwh, 今天接到email让俺再签两年10.8c/kwh |
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f******6 发帖数: 72 | 27 I am not sure if they will really give $50奖励 or not.Their month to month
rate is 11.2 cents per kwh. I only got 5 days Introductory 6.9¢/ kWh
when I enrolled. It looks like bait-and switch game. The Misc fee is $8.73
per month(exclude tax).
bed |
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f******e 发帖数: 465 | 29 如果我选择10.3/kwh两年固定费率的计划,最后实际收费相当于每kwh多少cents?或者
说有哪些额外收费?谢谢! |
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r****9 发帖数: 4961 | 30 悄悄的推荐一下Brilliant Energy, 我没有referral bonus. 用了一年多了,还行,价格实在,
也没什么乱charge的钱,客服也不错,发个email很多事情都搞定了。
这个是我夏天的一个bill.
Pricing Plan: Resi500
09/02/11 Advanced Metering Fee $3.05
09/02/11 Energy Charges (3,259 x $0.08400 per kWh) $273.76
09/02/11 MGRT Reimbursement $5.53
09/02/11 PUCA Reimbursement $0.47
09/02/11 Total Tax Charges $2.83
Current Charges $285.64
这个是我冬天的一个bill
Pricing Plan: Resi500
01/06/12 Advanced Metering Fee $3.05
01/06/12 Energy Charges (754 x $0.08400 per kWh) $63.34
01/06/12 MGRT R... 阅读全帖 |
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r****9 发帖数: 4961 | 31 悄悄的推荐一下Brilliant Energy, 我没有referral bonus. 用了一年多了,还行,价格实在,
也没什么乱charge的钱,客服也不错,发个email很多事情都搞定了。
这个是我夏天的一个bill.
Pricing Plan: Resi500
09/02/11 Advanced Metering Fee $3.05
09/02/11 Energy Charges (3,259 x $0.08400 per kWh) $273.76
09/02/11 MGRT Reimbursement $5.53
09/02/11 PUCA Reimbursement $0.47
09/02/11 Total Tax Charges $2.83
Current Charges $285.64
这个是我冬天的一个bill
Pricing Plan: Resi500
01/06/12 Advanced Metering Fee $3.05
01/06/12 Energy Charges (754 x $0.08400 per kWh) $63.34
01/06/12 MGRT R... 阅读全帖 |
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G***G 发帖数: 16778 | 33 网上显示是8.4cents per kwh
但是打电话订购后,我发现我的账户里面,这个电费变成了4.6 cents per kwh
是输入错误吗? |
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s*****i 发帖数: 5548 | 34 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
GoooG (pumpkin) 于 (Mon Dec 10 10:01:52 2012, 美东) 提到:
how to renew bounce energy for a 12 months term with 8.4c per kwh?
Are there any deals for renewal?
Thanks.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
redalarm19 (pp) 于 (Mon Dec 10 10:10:41 2012, 美东) 提到:
Coask
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
qizhu (frank) 于 (Mon Dec 10 11:13:03 2012, 美东) 提到:
我不会renew bounce energy, 看的便宜,但加上 base charge, delivery fee 后要
13c, 太贵了。
☆─────────────────────... 阅读全帖 |
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a**o 发帖数: 510 | 35 7.7 ¢
per kWh at 1000 kWh VPower 3 Plan
Term: 3 months
Autopay & E-Bill Required
Early Termination Fee: $20.00 per month remaining
Utility Provider: Centerpoint |
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n*****o 发帖数: 48 | 36 5月买的房子,现在的plan是reliant month by month,12cents/kwh,电费好贵。
我看到txu energy有9.9cents/kwh的plan,不过需要一年合约。但是它的那个plan det
ails看得我有些糊涂,感觉一个月用到2000kwh以上才有这个rate,否则rate更贵一些。
不知道有没有什么trick在里面。还有,现在是renew energy的好时候吗?还是等等,到
10月份再renew。
另外有合适的电力公司计划也推荐一下,4000尺的房子,4口人,用电量有些多。包子伺
候,谢谢! |
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A***o 发帖数: 2783 | 37 你这个平均不到$0.05/KWH狠了不起咯。。。我查到的各种公司
各种plan都没这么低的,加上杂费和税,总在$0.13/KWH上下。。。
换来换去的也没折腾出几块钱。。。 |
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G***G 发帖数: 16778 | 38 really?
除了3c/kwh的电费
和3c/kwh的oncor费
和$5.25tdu费
它的其它的费用都有什么? |
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g*****9 发帖数: 4125 | 39 Most of your electricity is used to heat hot water, cooking, fridge and
dryer should also use quite a bit.
Assume you only heat up your water by 38C, it takes 1.18125 kwh to heat up one gallon. If you use 30 gallons of water everyday for shower, you would have used 35.43 KWH already everyday.
You can buy a meter to find out how much electricity your computer is using.
http://www.p3international.com/products/consumer/p4320.html
37kwh per day is normal or somewhat low for a all electric apt.
120kw |
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f*******6 发帖数: 665 | 40 谢谢回复!
1.18125 kwh 才能热1加仑水到38度,那效率太低了。我们平时用1000w电火锅,20分钟
就能把0.5加仑的水煮开。
shower开10分钟大概是30加仑水,2个人至少用60加仑水/每天,不可能每天用到60度。
one gallon. If you use 30 gallons of water everyday for shower, you would
have used 35.43 KWH already everyday.
using.
day.
is |
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s***e 发帖数: 5242 | 41 1 gallon 水 3.8 kg
水比热 4.2e3 J kg-1 C-1
升温 38C 需要能量
4.2e3*3.8*38 J = 6.0e5 J = 0.17 kwh
你怎么算的?洗个澡要35度电不make sense。。
one gallon. If you use 30 gallons of water everyday for shower, you would
have used 35.43 KWH already everyday.
using.
day.
is |
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g**y 发帖数: 983 | 42 //nod
for both condo and house, you need pay
property tax, normally 1% of the house value
maintainence/tools, at least $50-100/month
For house, you need pay
Water, 1.X/M3 depends on city
Electricity, 0.1/KWH for ontario,normally 15-20 KWH/day
Gas, 100-200/month, depends on the house size and the temprature you set
for Condo, you need pay
Condo fee, start from 100 for a new condo, to 500-800 for an old one |
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o*****s 发帖数: 1445 | 43 In June 2006, Tesla Motors reported the Roadster's battery-to-wheel
efficiency as 110 W·h/km (17.7 kW·h/100 mi) on an unspecified driving
cycle—either a constant 60 mph (97 km/h)) or SAE J1634 test—and stated a
charging efficiency of 86% for an overall plug-to-wheel efficiency of 128 W
·h/km (20.5 kW·h/100 mi).[37][122][123]
Evolution of the Roadster's plug-to-wheel efficiency (smaller values
indicate better efficiency)In March 2007, Tesla Motors reported the Roadster
's efficiency on the EPA hi... 阅读全帖 |
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k*****a 发帖数: 1518 | 44 【 以下文字转载自 Canada 讨论区,原文如下 】
发信人: kangjia (康佳--红太阳), 信区: Canada
标 题: [转载] 中泰马台生活质量大比拼:能源篇
发信站: Unknown Space - 未名空间 (Sun Apr 11 20:30:47 2004), 站内信件
【 以下文字转载自 ChinaNews 讨论区 】
【 原文由 IronRooster 所发表 】
中国人的生活质量20年内能候能赶上泰国就不错了。马来西亚人的生活水平中国人恐怕不
是我们着一代可以赶上的。台湾就更别说了。。
数据如下:
中国China
Energy consumption (kg oil equivalent per head) 853
Electricity consumption (kwh per head) 1,098
泰国Thailand
Energy consumption (kg oil equivalent per head) 1,255
Electricity consumption (kwh per head) 1,574
马来西亚Malaysia
Ener |
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k*****a 发帖数: 1518 | 45 all data are 2003's, data source: The Economist
China:
Energy consumption (kg oil equivalent per head) 853
Electricity consumption (kwh per head) 1,098
S. Korea:
Energy consumption (kg oil equivalent per head) 3,947
Electricity consumption (kwh per head) 6,303 |
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O**l 发帖数: 12923 | 46 不要听他扯 tsla用的18650是自己设计 松下特别定制的
和市面上卖的两回事
这也是为什么18650市面上价格已经降到150$/kwh tsla的价格还在200-250$/kwh |
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a*********a 发帖数: 3656 | 47 oh, those!
I don't know how you Californians do things since you guys do some really
whacky stuff. Here in the North East, we pay for electricity by kWH. The
more I use, they more I pay. If I bought a TESLA and plugged it in, that
little meter in my yard would be spinning fast.
That s exactly the model I was advocating. Who use, who pay, use more, pay
more.
As it is now, every body pays about the same to their ISP for internet. Yet
those who use Netflix uses 30% average, 60% peak through put. Th... 阅读全帖 |
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k*****a 发帖数: 1518 | 48 【 以下文字转载自 Canada 讨论区,原文如下 】
发信人: kangjia (康佳--红太阳), 信区: Canada
标 题: [转载] 中泰马台生活质量大比拼:能源篇
发信站: Unknown Space - 未名空间 (Sun Apr 11 20:30:47 2004), 站内信件
【 以下文字转载自 ChinaNews 讨论区 】
【 原文由 IronRooster 所发表 】
中国人的生活质量20年内能候能赶上泰国就不错了。马来西亚人的生活水平中国人恐怕不
是我们着一代可以赶上的。台湾就更别说了。。
数据如下:
中国China
Energy consumption (kg oil equivalent per head) 853
Electricity consumption (kwh per head) 1,098
泰国Thailand
Energy consumption (kg oil equivalent per head) 1,255
Electricity consumption (kwh per head) 1,574
马来西亚Malaysia
Ener |
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V***b 发帖数: 3419 | 49 按排量收消费税不科学,应该按MPG。
我大致算了一下,
Tesla Model S 60 kWh, MPG是126
Tesla Model S 85 kWh, MPG是113
也不是特别高啊,我还以为能500呢。
Raptor |
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