b*****r
发帖数: 2065 | 1 https://360.gs.com/research/portal/research/econcommentary/?action=viewpage&
st=1&d=16792280&isRouted=true
Goldman Sachs Research
Global Markets Daily: Market views muted ahead of the FOMC
Published 05:12 AM Wed Mar 19 2014
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•The FOMC is now meeting for the first time with Janet Yellen as Chair.
•Our US team expects the FOMC to deliver an accommodative message...
•…alongside a continued tapering o... 阅读全帖 |
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c********a
发帖数: 767 | 2 从12月份就开始捣腾了，10%+已经赚好了，急不急得ben还没有说要taper的时候，我已
经说一定会taper的，因为inflation来了，那个时候我就开始load黄金了
黄金的底已经in了，现在就是不断在上升趋势调整的阶段buy dip
加息怕什么，加息的过程就是inflation不断飙升的过程，taper就是变相的加息，现在
天使，地理和人和都在黄金这边 |
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m****i
发帖数: 1980 | 3 Sequoia Century Report
Heads-up 超长。
我很少写报告了，大铁后因为手指伤没能及时写报告，后来手好了，都不记得很多细节
了。
这次我决定为这个三翠写个很详细的报告，主要是想让各位小伙伴能对这个著名的ride
有个直接的了解，为以后的人去骑提供点帮助。文笔很烂又爱跑题，各位将就了！
前言：
事前我十天没骑车，除了度假和啤酒，啥也没干，算是被迫taper了。
事实证明，只要一不怕苦，二不怕“死”，三不怕大胆，人人都能骑三翠。
虽然我骑过三翠，但是最难的只有100mile/6000尺爬升。
星期四和缪哥联系上，周五出去lunch ride,算是见面认识了。很遗憾我临时改时间，
要不缪哥还可以认识大名鼎鼎的老费。周五顶风飙了18迈，很过瘾，大概是taper了十
天的结果，感觉很好，觉得信心爆棚的可以去报名death ride了（晚上回家查资料，发
现6/25还会再re-open registration）。
周六清早临时决定不去大波罗，”含泪饮恨”错过拜见鼠鼠，对不起哈！
因为我很了解自己，从来没有爬过著名的大波罗，以我的个性去了是肯定在junction停
不下来... 阅读全帖 |
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W*******s
发帖数: 18705 | 4 我买的一包9X 5LB，从粗到细的线，粗头还有个圆结，那个叫什么？查了下叫Tapered
Leader。
还算是我混淆了，Tapered Leader已经包括了Tippet，所以我问题应该是Tapered
Leader前端细线用起来很快，用完了是重新换一条还是怎么样，看来大家的意思是哪里
不够了，买导线接起来，或是直接用细炭线尼龙线接起来。
我这次没理解错吧？ |
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b**s
发帖数: 4571 | 5 烂在SCII这个blank和st croix的设计。
差的杆子没有明显的腰身和taper的感觉，基本就是要软都软，要硬都硬。好的杆子，
除了重量轻，敏感，不管action如何，要体现出腰身的力度和taper的不同弹性。要体
现出cast的力量传递和fight时候的弹性，还要有一体化的感觉。
我曾经有个原则，如果美国货有相当质量，我就不买日货。所以我penn和st croix都用
过不少。以前st croix都是２－３百的高端，低端只有 premier，价位也在１００。后
来出了triumph，mojo bass, mojo surf等系列。我不否认每个系列里都可能有几个不
错的。但我用过的，买过的，试过的SCII blank，总体感觉就是感觉迟钝，重，没有腰
身和taper的感觉，易断。售后服务不好.
premier ice fishing rod，我递给店员，他垂直拎杆尖，可能稍微有点角度，瞬间UL
的那个就断了。
triumph ９wt fly rod，基本就是spinning rod的感觉，不是fly rod。利用升级计划
，升级成avid inshore。
avid insho... 阅读全帖 |
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t**h
发帖数: 229 | 6 I have a similar feeling here.
I hadn't had much sore in hip and
hamstring during the training this summer.
But, in the taper week, I started to feel
the sore. I don't know why. But I guess because the muscle had not been
recovered completely during the training and it was just hiding the sore until you have less workout.
I felt the sore during the taper off. Anyway, that did affect my race.
During the race, you won't feel it at all.
I was a bit nervous in the taper
week as well. But now I ha |
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A***a
发帖数: 1799 | 7 谢谢大侠指导.我一直走不出训练比比赛快的怪圈,你说的对,做了很多训练时不干的事,
我这次CRAB LOAD 完了重了5磅,吃得太多了.我对TAPER一直搞不好,估计不TAPER,一切
照训练时来也会比这次发挥好,下次我就只TAPER一周,也不狂CARB LOAD了.
说起吃盐,一路上倒是有人发,跟凡士林一起发的,下次我也吃点.还有就是不喝水了,改
喝SPORTS DRINK. |
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c*********n
发帖数: 2120 | 8 真的是一直在进步啊!-:)
关于taper，你在按照AM上的taper做吗？
我记得上面有说taper后会提高多少的百分比(10%?)，跟我去年最后的结果差不多，当
然也可能是我平时跑得太松懈了...
Good luck to your Boston! |
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o*******r
发帖数: 4921 | 9 骇人听闻的标题才有吸引力。
首先感谢政府感谢党。然后感谢老婆孩子对跑步的长期支持。还有pager和他的家庭。
最后感谢跑版的忽悠们，没有你们挑战一个又一个更长距离的忽悠，我也不会去掺乎这
种ultra marathon的。
恭喜pager，跑的相当英勇，吐了无数次，居然神奇的在27迈后超过我，赢了我足足5分
钟。而且还是在我擅长的hilly course赢的。可喜可贺。Truly happy for him。觉得
他下次马拉松进3:35还是很有希望的。
注册：
大家都知道我是以打酱油出名的。所以，也是毫不犹豫的把pager拉我跑TNF 50K的忽悠
坚决的拒绝。没想到，pager曲线救国，把我LD先说服了，告诉她有个免费的杯子和一
件north face technical shirt，然后我LD就要我去跑了。正好有groupon,半价，想想
$37太便宜了，于是就上了。悲愤的是，pager没告诉我们，其实跑5K也有同样的杯子和
同样的technical shirt。。。唯一的区别是，印的字在5K之间悄悄的夹了个小小的圈。
训练：
没有任何特别的准备，也觉得不太需要，慢慢跑就是了，玩玩... 阅读全帖 |
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R*****s
发帖数: 41236 | 10 taper多少跟人有关， 不过一般的建议是宁愿taper过多， 也不要taper不够... |
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w***u
发帖数: 724 | 11 别着急，我也是每次比赛前都感冒或有感冒的前兆。好好休息，比赛是应该能恢复过来
。而且我自己的经验是正好利用这个机会taper。一般来说over-taper比under-taper好
。加油，祝你好运。 |
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l***h
发帖数: 9308 | 12 我记得以前给过一个术语链接在某个置项贴里面，可能归档了吧，再贴一下，新人不懂
的可以参考一下
http://www.runnersworld.com/community/forums/runner-communities
Your friendly beginning runner's guide to .... runner's jargon.
You'll notice we don't have a FAQ here -- that's because we want you to ask
your questions, join in, become part of the community! That said, I am sure
new runners get overwhelmed by phrases we throw around all the time here
with impunity; you probably think we're all speaking some strange language.
To follow along here, ... 阅读全帖 |
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W***i
发帖数: 833 | 13 算了，我还是再贴一遍，
Your friendly beginning runner's guide to .... runner's jargon.
You'll notice we don't have a FAQ here -- that's because we want you to ask
your questions, join in, become part of the community! That said, I am sure
new runners get overwhelmed by phrases we throw around all the time here wit
h impunity; you probably think we're all speaking some strange language. To
follow along here, it's really helpful just to know some general stuff and w
hat terms mean. So in the interest of hel... 阅读全帖 |
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m**t
发帖数: 1956 | 14 taper
hansons认为taper只要10天就够了，意思是从最后的一个SOS开始到race，就10天，这9
天中只跑easy。hansons认为一个sos workout后10天，效果会开始消退。
如果仔细比较计划，其实和AM差不多，因为hansons的倒数第二周就不跑long run了。
具体来说，AM的倒数第二周开始taper，一周比一周减量，最后race周还安排一个dress
rehearsal。hansons，最后倒数第二周和倒数第一周是一样的，race周就只跑easy。
hansons建议carb loading，而且不要怕体重的临时增加。
饮食
hansons建议平时 60-70% carb, 20% fat，剩下蛋白质。hansons是认为carb要给够的
，这样才能保证SOS训练的质量。训练前一个小时不要吃固体食物。训练后半个小时内
，要补充水分，吃点200-400卡的carb，比如 冰激凌。不要跑完饿肚子很久。
strike
there is relatively little research on the topic ... as there is much... 阅读全帖 |
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m**t
发帖数: 1956 | 15 taper
hansons认为taper只要10天就够了，意思是从最后的一个SOS开始到race，就10天，这9
天中只跑easy。hansons认为一个sos workout后10天，效果会开始消退。
如果仔细比较计划，其实和AM差不多，因为hansons的倒数第二周就不跑long run了。
具体来说，AM的倒数第二周开始taper，一周比一周减量，最后race周还安排一个dress
rehearsal。hansons，最后倒数第二周和倒数第一周是一样的，race周就只跑easy。
hansons建议carb loading，而且不要怕体重的临时增加。
饮食
hansons建议平时 60-70% carb, 20% fat，剩下蛋白质。hansons是认为carb要给够的
，这样才能保证SOS训练的质量。训练前一个小时不要吃固体食物。训练后半个小时内
，要补充水分，吃点200-400卡的carb，比如 冰激凌。不要跑完饿肚子很久。
strike
there is relatively little research on the topic ... as there is much... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****l
发帖数: 2903 | 16 看到这个，贴给你看看。
8. Marathon runners don't taper properly before the race. It takes about
four weeks to recover from a long run of 18 to 20 miles or so. This means,
obviously, that no runs of 18 miles or longer should be conducted during the
month leading up to a marathon.
Unfortunately, many runners try to squeeze in one--or even two--long runs
during the four weeks before the big race. The emphasis should actually be
placed on recovery, not prolonged running, during the 28 days preceding a
marathon... 阅读全帖 |
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l***h
发帖数: 9308 | 17 marathon pace
跑步黑话大全
Your friendly beginning runner's guide to .... runner's jargon. Cool
You'll notice we don't have a FAQ here -- that's because we want you to ask
your questions, join in, become part of the community! That said, I am sure
new runners get overwhelmed by phrases we throw around all the time here wit
h impunity; you probably think we're all speaking some strange language. To
follow along here, it's really helpful just to know some general stuff and w
hat terms mean. So in the in... 阅读全帖 |
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R*****s
发帖数: 41236 | 18 包括初级中级高级3个16周计划，以及说明，我觉得非常的言简意赅，
有兴趣的可以看看, 当然他家的高级计划跟这里很多人比都不算啥了..
基本也是依据预期的MP来训练，高级计划最后几周也有tempo+long的组合拳...
http://www.baa.org/programs/training-programs/marathon-training
Rest Day
All training programs must have planned recovery. How often this takes place
is highly variable between athletes. Some people take two or three days off
from training each week. Others rarely take a day off. Everyone should have
planned easy days with little or no training. The program has the recovery
day set every... 阅读全帖 |
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R*****s
发帖数: 41236 | 19 包括初级中级高级3个16周计划，以及说明，我觉得非常的言简意赅，
有兴趣的可以看看, 当然他家的高级计划跟这里很多人比都不算啥了..
基本也是依据预期的MP来训练，高级计划最后几周也有tempo+long的组合拳...
http://www.baa.org/programs/training-programs/marathon-training
Rest Day
All training programs must have planned recovery. How often this takes place
is highly variable between athletes. Some people take two or three days off
from training each week. Others rarely take a day off. Everyone should have
planned easy days with little or no training. The program has the recovery
day set every... 阅读全帖 |
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W*******t
发帖数: 18 | 20 上周末跑了一个当地的小型比赛。成绩很慢。四小时十一分多。不想还进了age group
的前三名。看来大多数参赛者都是去打酱油的。这两三个月一直在版上潜水，受益匪浅
。也学着写个race report回馈跑版。很久没用中文写东西了，凑合着看吧。
训练：准备跑马前只是隔天在Gym 跑个二三迈而己。配速10左右。夏天忽发奇想要跑马
拉松。当时还没来跑版，有奌不知天高地厚，就从marathonrookie.com下载了一个16wk
训练计划。但是夏天的时候杂事很多，一直拖到八月初训练才正式上轨道。前八周训练
跟得很轻松。算了一下十六周结束正好有一个当地的比赛,一冒进就报了名。结果第十
周9:30跑了十六迈后停得太急，膝盖后面抽筋。歇了几天后龟速跑了第十一周的17迈。
接下来的一周伤情恢复得还可以, 就又比计划多跑了两天，以期把损失的时间补回来。
另外又意识到因为出差missed掉一个星期，最后决定skip 18迈的long run, 直接奔20
迈然后就taper了。不承想long run 的时候跑友十四迈shin splint 突发，只好陪他走
完了剩余的六迈。taper期间膝盖后面有时还略... 阅读全帖 |
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p*********l
发帖数: 26270 | 21 休息一周，什么也别干，使劲吃，使劲睡；
还恢复不过来的话，再休息一周，使劲吃，使劲睡；
两周都休息不过来的话，看医生查查各种激素指标。
恢复训练以后，每周至少有1-2天是rest day，不要跑步，可以做做yoga之类的拉伸，
什么也不做也可以。每天都使劲吃，使劲睡，不管运动不运动。
长期下来还是觉得越来越累的话，可以introduce休息周，那一周不一定要完全休息，
但是要大大降低运动强度和时间，类似赛前的tapering。可以根据自己的身体状况来制
定休息的频率，锻炼强度大的，可以每一个月taper一周，强度小的，可以每两个月
taper一周。定期休息，对于长期坚持有效的锻炼是很重要的。 |
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y**s
发帖数: 4 | 22 翻译机床说明书时，遇到以下问题，按通常翻译不能表达清楚，望专业朋友指点。不胜
感谢！！！
SPINDLE TAPER............................CAT 40
SPINDLE NOSE................ 40 TAPER
RAPID TRAVERSE RATE......... 650 IPM
CUTTING FEED RATE
CHIP AUGER
MAXIMUM TAPER ANGLE-------------45 DEGREE
JOG & RAPID FEED----------------118.1 IPM |
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p********m
发帖数: 325 | 23 Tips on Buying an Interview Suit (ZT)
The suit is the vehicle by which you create a first impression, says Norman
Fryman, former CEO of The Grief Companies and current consultant to
Bidermann, manufacturers of tailored men’s clothing. He goes on to explain
that a suit’s silhouette, drape, and color provoke a conscious thought in
the mind of the recruiter of what you are all about.
Let’s face it, a recruiter not only judges your resume and communication
skills, but will be influenced by the visu... 阅读全帖 |
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M********8
发帖数: 3837 | 24 texture不是为了好看，而是为了掩盖手艺不精，最难的就是完全光滑的表面，一点点
瑕疵就不能掩盖，对于taper的要求非常高，角度一点不对你就看得出来（小黑屋的墙
的交界点都不是90度，需要taper来视觉纠正）。我看到taper做光滑表面的时候要用好
几盏强光灯照射来找看所有的角度，但是做texture的时候完全不需要，喷上去就是了
，反正你看不出来。
不仅如此，就算是molding, 其他的finish, 越花越ornate的对于手艺的要求越低，越
线条简单的要求越高。所以起一个房子，要是追求modern简洁线条finish的话，人工费
是ornate的几倍，一方面是必须请熟手工人，一方面是这个熟手工人必须花更多的精力
在每个细节上不出错。 |
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X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 25 Next week the market-moving news will be dominated by the FOMC meeting on
Wednesday, and remarks from the Federal Reserve about its forward plans for
monetary policy.
The FOMC monetary policy statement, due out at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, will
be followed by a press conference with Ben Bernanke 30 minutes later. It’s
unlikely that any announcement about a taper in the Fed’s bond-buying
program will move the market, as the market is expecting a slight taper.
However, if the taper is extreme in eit... 阅读全帖 |
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m*t
发帖数: 7490 | 26 关键是5月联储突然爆料想taper QE
导致贷出去到全世界投资的美元回流，连中国6月都出现美元占款减少
更不提印度卢比跌了20%以上
后来联储发现taper是不能搞的，大家又放心了，美元继续外流
所以这两天美元又跌出屎了，欧元1.38了，人民币破6指日可待 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 27 改了后现在的二季度GDP也不过1.7%而已.
Sure everything is great with the economy!
Why?
They revised how the GDP is figured last week!
The Government "Revises" 84 Years Of Economic History This Week
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-29/government-revises-84-
'
Changes to the national income and product accounts data will be released at
the same time as the second quarter estimate of gross domestic product. The
revisions go back to 1929 and include the current business cycle. They will
probably show a deeper ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 28 Treasury Prices Rally on Jobs Report
By MIN ZENG
A disappointing U.S. jobs report generated a broad price rally in the U.S.
Treasury bond market, pushing down benchmark 10-year note's yield from the
highest levels in more than two years.
In midday trade, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note broke a three-day
losing streak and rose by 18/32 in price. The yield fell to 2.912%,
according to Tradeweb. Bond prices rise when their yields fall.
Speculation that Friday's data would show stronger jobs gro... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 29 Jobs Report: U.S. Economy Added Just 74K Jobs In December, Unemployment Down
To 6.7%
The stretch of positive economic news that led to the Federal Reserve’s
decision to begin trimming asset purchases last month has not continued into
the new year.
Employers added just 74,000 jobs in December, well below the 197,000
economists expected. The unemployment rate, which is drawn from a different
survey of households, was down to 6.7% from 7% in November. The labor force
participation rate was down fro... 阅读全帖 |
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A*A
发帖数: 257 | 30 最好的结果是不马上Taper，10 year T note能从2.9降到2.7至2.8，利率可能能降一到
两个八分之一点。
如果要开始Taper的话，T note能涨到3.2吧，利率过5。 |
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L*****e
发帖数: 2926 | 31 yes. there is a meeting and news conference at 2PM.
"Short-term will be still low. "
I guess short-term means 15-year fix?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/09/18/what-to-expect-from-t
By Victoria McGrane and Jon Hilsenrath
The Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting later today, and it’s a
nail-biter. Fed officials are likely to emphasize they’re moving slowly and
carefully even if they do decide to start pulling back on their signature
bond-buying program, and will also seek to reassure... 阅读全帖 |
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f******I
发帖数: 769 | 32
cytoxan and steroid for induction, i think treat for about a year then taper
, but it often relapse after tapering, so sometimes they use methotrexate or
cellcept or imuran as a maintainence therapy after achieviing remission
with cytoxan since they are less toxic than cytoxan,
i don't think there is really a "cure" per se, |
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h****n
发帖数: 2250 | 33 kawai k300 k500， tapered soundboard, underfelt hammer。
尤其是tapered soundboard, 一般用在三角琴上，对音色影响很大。
Yamaha u1,这两条全没有。
另外，就算比，u1 vs k300，拿k500比，太对不住人家了，呜～～～ |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 34 John Williams：Bernanke 和 Yellen 的最坚定同盟发话了：
Bond Purchases May Be Tapered by This Summer
The U.S. economic recovery may have strengthened enough for the Federal
Reserve to begin winding down its bond purchases by as early as this summer,
a top official from the central bank said Wednesday.
While he cautioned that more concrete evidence is needed to confirm that the
latest series of encouraging economic data are more than a “blip,” San
Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said it... 阅读全帖 |
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s****8
发帖数: 2537 | 36 前阵子整天说 tapering
现在尼码 Bernanke: Too early to tell when tapering will start |
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j*******i
发帖数: 1457 | 38 这个月当然 no taper 了
你赌的是几月taper |
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c*****1
发帖数: 2460 | 40 QE不taper还好，taper了就去见他妈的妈妈了。 |
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l*****u
发帖数: 12114 | 41 B神下台之前真的taper的可能性有多大？尤其是黑老大和B神的关系搞成这样。
不过我还是要请教一下，即使是taper立即上马，利息立即升上去，对AGNC这类的
mREITs的影响具体是怎样？会破产关门？看了几个文章都说这类的mREITs多少都有
hedge的，所以大家都是在猜测会怎样。老大你觉得呢？ |
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l*****u
发帖数: 12114 | 42 这个认识是错误的。tapering是关系景气的重大或者决定举措，背后牵涉的太多。市场
不可能price in这么一个大事件。能price in的就是FED的signaling, 就是每次放风都
会造成市场震荡，但是如果真的搞tapering了，没有人知道后果如何。 |
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c*****1
发帖数: 2460 | 43 没有taper. 100weibi to bet on no taper. |
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p****p
发帖数: 3360 | 44 刚刚复习了一下。也在想这个问题。tapering最终结束根据FOMC的七月份minutes应该
是明年中期。主席说市场重新启动明年4、5月份，差不多一个时间。主席请解释一下，
是不是说tapering会导致市场振荡？Fed似乎挺有信心明年中失业率会降到7%左右。
还有一个是美国政府开支预算在国会的争斗估计会有一些麻烦。还有什么？ |
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p****p
发帖数: 3360 | 45 刚刚复习了一下。也在想这个问题。tapering最终结束根据FOMC的七月份minutes应该
是明年中期。主席说市场重新启动明年4、5月份，差不多一个时间。主席请解释一下，
是不是说tapering会导致市场振荡？Fed似乎挺有信心明年中失业率会降到7%左右。
还有一个是美国政府开支预算在国会的争斗估计会有一些麻烦。还有什么？ |
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p****p
发帖数: 3360 | 46 谢谢大夫！
现在FED minutes已经直接把tapering和失业率挂钩，是不是tapering引起的大市下跌
时间已经可以预测了？
BOND
, |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 47 Fed不会亏的.
QE会停的,但是是taper off,从开始taper off到彻底结束都需要差不多1年.这个阶段股
市会因为正面经济数据而继续在怀疑中上涨,债市里的钱会不断抽出来进入股市.股市真
正跌要等到2-3年以后. |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 48 their goal has adjusted to 6.8%
and the unemployment rate drop may take longer base on the huge downside
revision for the 2nd quarter, 3rd may be subject to downside revision as
well
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the taper may start later, to later this year or even next year. while the
market has priced in a 10-15B taper, hence the big jump.
of course no more threat of war helps a lot 2. |
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A**C
发帖数: 505 | 49 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (no taper for sure
babe lets go!
no taper for sure |
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J*******r
发帖数: 2945 | 50 利好似乎出尽了，summers退赛都拿出来炒作了，真没啥材料了
taper不taper，早没人care了 |
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