M********4
发帖数: 1272 | 1 If you guys are counting on the free polls on line, beware of the following
statement:
“The captured pollsters are like the credit rating agencies during the
financial crisis. They are putting a AAA-rating on a pile of dog crap. Buy
it at your own risk.”
BTW, the most respected name Gallup decided to stay out of this year's horse
race...
http://time.com/4067019/gallup-horse-race-polling/
The polling industry is facing a number of challenges
Oct 9, 2016
When it comes to election polling, it’s the best of times and the worst of
times.
On the positive side, there is more polling than ever from private
universities, news media and small independent shops. Sites like HuffPost
Pollster, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight also provide sophisticated
analysis of what the polls mean.
On the negative side, the glut of polls often doesn’t add up to much, while
problems with getting accurate results are starting to hurt the polling
industry’s reputation.
The announcement this week that Gallup, one of America’s most storied
pollsters, will no longer do horse-race polling on who’s ahead in the 2016
election cycle only underscored the huge changes in the industry.
Michael Dimock, president of the Pew Research Center, said it’s simply not
worth it for places like Gallup to stay in the game.
“It feels like some kind of pivot, mostly because they way the rest of the
polling market has developed,” he told TIME. “What you’ve seen is the
arrival of a whole ton of polls that are covering that horse race side of it
, just jamming us with new data day in and day out on the fortunes of the
candidates.”
Both Pew and Gallup are instead marshaling their resources to find out what
voters think about the issues.
Cliff Zukin, a professor of public policy and political science at Rutgers
University, said that makes sense, given the costs involved with doing
reliable polling for a place like Gallup. The decision also came after a
botched final pre-election poll in 2012 that put Mitt Romney ahead of
President Obama.
“These guys have contributed to the political process, they’re not just in
it for the short time,” said Zukin. “They do not want to mislead the
public and they don’t want to take a chance of not being able to do it well
—it takes a lot more resources to do it well now.”
The former head of the American Association for Public Opinion Research,
Zukin wrote wrote a June op-ed in the New York Times, detailing two major
problems with polling right now: people who only have a cellphone, and
people who don’t respond to pollsters.
While smaller polling outfits get around these problems by using automated
surveys or seeking out respondents online, methods that some critics say can
distort results, Pew and Gallup stick to more expensive traditional methods
, Zukin said.
Dimock, Pew’s president, says the high opportunity costs traditional
outlets face with each poll means it makes sense for them to ask questions
that have more staying power than who’s ahead today.
“We’re loaded with data over there,” said Dimock. “Where we really could
use more data is at this broader level of citizenship and understanding the
forces that are shaping the context of the election and they ways that
elections affect people above and beyond who they’re going to choose.” | m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 2 UP
following
horse
【在 M********4 的大作中提到】
: If you guys are counting on the free polls on line, beware of the following
: statement:
: “The captured pollsters are like the credit rating agencies during the
: financial crisis. They are putting a AAA-rating on a pile of dog crap. Buy
: it at your own risk.”
: BTW, the most respected name Gallup decided to stay out of this year's horse
: race...
: http://time.com/4067019/gallup-horse-race-polling/
: The polling industry is facing a number of challenges
: Oct 9, 2016
| o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 3 因为他们2012预测ROMNEY赢。
这次不敢再预测了。
following
horse
【在 M********4 的大作中提到】
: If you guys are counting on the free polls on line, beware of the following
: statement:
: “The captured pollsters are like the credit rating agencies during the
: financial crisis. They are putting a AAA-rating on a pile of dog crap. Buy
: it at your own risk.”
: BTW, the most respected name Gallup decided to stay out of this year's horse
: race...
: http://time.com/4067019/gallup-horse-race-polling/
: The polling industry is facing a number of challenges
: Oct 9, 2016
| d******y
发帖数: 2787 | 4 这是要脸的players
following
horse
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 13
【在 M********4 的大作中提到】
: If you guys are counting on the free polls on line, beware of the following
: statement:
: “The captured pollsters are like the credit rating agencies during the
: financial crisis. They are putting a AAA-rating on a pile of dog crap. Buy
: it at your own risk.”
: BTW, the most respected name Gallup decided to stay out of this year's horse
: race...
: http://time.com/4067019/gallup-horse-race-polling/
: The polling industry is facing a number of challenges
: Oct 9, 2016
| G*******h
发帖数: 4091 | 5 确实，他们预测不到猪党可以作弊，这个变量太大了，颠覆性的。
【在 o****y 的大作中提到】
: 因为他们2012预测ROMNEY赢。
: 这次不敢再预测了。
:
: following
: horse
| o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 6 所以不预测了。
【在 G*******h 的大作中提到】
: 确实，他们预测不到猪党可以作弊，这个变量太大了，颠覆性的。
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