l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 October 3, 2012 Posted by DJ Drummond
Imagine I took a poll of delegates at the 2012 GOP National Convention. Let
’s say I made sure the gender, race, age, education, and other demographics
apart from party affiliation were carefully matched to voter norms. Would
you be happy with such a poll?
If you are a Republican, maybe, but obviously not if you are a Democrat. A
lot of folks would be quick to point out that Mitt Romney would pretty much
crush Barack Obama in such a poll. The flip side ... 阅读全帖 |
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P***e
发帖数: 804 | 2 https://news.usc.edu/109339/why-the-usc-dornsifel-a-times-presidential-poll-
is-unlike-other-polls/
The scientists behind the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Presidential
Election Daybreak Poll have answered a list of frequently asked questions
about the national probability tracking poll that many media observers have
labeled as an “outlier” because its results have differed from other polls
’ since its July debut.
The results of the Daybreak Poll are updated nightly, and are publicly
available ... 阅读全帖 |
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b******r
发帖数: 1619 | 5 Global investors are losing faith in China, giving the country’s markets
their worst rating in more than two years in the latest Bloomberg poll.
About a quarter of those surveyed say they expect Chinese markets to be
among the worst performers over the next year. That’s the highest negative
reading that the country has received in the quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll
since January 2010 and was second only to the 45 percent rating that the
European Union received in the Sept. 4 survey.
Enlarge ima... 阅读全帖 |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 6 所有的poll都是希拉里领先；
川普只在不限制投票次数的poll领先。
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/media/donald-trump-polls/index.html
Donald Trump has a new target: "Crooked polls."
With Hillary Clinton extending her lead nationwide and in key battleground
states, Trump is toying with what might be called "poll denialism," giving
his supporters license to dismiss the discouraging data.
"Even the polls are crooked," he said at a Monday night rally, expressing
disbelief that he is losing to Clinton in Pennsylvania. "Look, we'r... 阅读全帖 |
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s***5
发帖数: 453 | 7 https://origin-nyi.thehill.com/homenews/campaign/302571-are-the-polls-skewed
-against-trump
Want a tough job? Try being a pollster two weeks before Election Day.
Donald Trump is ripping pollsters and the media, arguing the surveys are
biased against him because many include too many Democrats in their sampling
surveys.
Conservative news sites have pounced on Trump’s arguments, pointing to a
trio of national polls that show the race between the Republican
presidential nominee and Democrat Hillary... 阅读全帖 |
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 8 很多人觉得诧异，为什莫不同poll出来的结果大不一样。
首先可以声明，poll是不会故意修改数据的，很多都是第三方代完成的，尤其是media
poll, 比如CNN, CBS的poll。
猫腻就出现在poll的对象怎末选。
poll绝不是随机抽取N个人调查。这N个人的组成才是poll的重中之重。一般来说，按照
一定比例选取一定名额的民主党，再选一定数量的共和党，最后是无党派人士。问题关
键在怎末定这个百分比。很多poll是按照2008年的投票人员组成来确定今年的抽样组成
的， 38%民主党， ~30%共和党，剩下的是无党派。这个比例准确性如何，仁者见仁，
智者见智。但是就算大部分民主党人也不会天真地认为今年民主党投票比例会有38%那
末高。
2004年，共和党投票比例也是高达38%，民主党31%-32%。可见这个比例才是关键。
如果你是亲奥巴马的，很有可能你会用民主党高比例的样品，反之亦成立。有些poll会
根据两党对这次大选的热情度，调整党派比例。
这个党派比例只是其中一个决定poll样品组成的一个重要因素。其他的因素也是需要考
虑在内的，比如黑人比例，白人比例，老墨比例。样品年龄段... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 9 September 11, 2013 Posted by Warner Todd Huston
Today we have a great example of a polling firm allowing its political
ideology to get in the way of its work. On Tuesday, Sept. 10, two anti-
Second Amendment State Senators in Colorado were recalled by huge margins.
In the days before the recall vote took place, Public Policy Polling (PPP)
had conducted a poll that showed that the senators were about to be
eliminated by voters but the firm refused to publish its own poll because
the left-wing pol... 阅读全帖 |
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M********4
发帖数: 1272 | 11 If you guys are counting on the free polls on line, beware of the following
statement:
“The captured pollsters are like the credit rating agencies during the
financial crisis. They are putting a AAA-rating on a pile of dog crap. Buy
it at your own risk.”
BTW, the most respected name Gallup decided to stay out of this year's horse
race...
http://time.com/4067019/gallup-horse-race-polling/
The polling industry is facing a number of challenges
Oct 9, 2016
When it comes to election polling, it’s the... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 Those who had written off Donald Trump need to reconsider things in light of
recent polls in five states.
Trump has soared in the latest polls in California, New York, Connecticut,
Maryland, and Pennsylvania. In no recent polls of upcoming state primaries
did Trump lose ground.
State by state, lets take a look.
California
In the latest poll by YouGov, Trumps margin soared to 18 percentage points
over Cruz, up from 7-8 percentage point in the two preceding polls.
This was barely enough to tip th... 阅读全帖 |
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 13 1: Gallup Poll: Mitt Romney leads President Obama 49 percent to 47 percent
among registered likely voters, the poll released Saturday shows.
2: The Rasmussen Reports: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday
shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while
President Obama earns the vote from 48%.
3:Reuters/Ipsos: Latest poll Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll showed Romney
leading Obama 47 percent to 44 percent nationwide.
4: American Research Group: New polls in two presi... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 14 Exclusive Poll: 74% of Adults Believe Religious Freedom Trumps ObamaCare
by Mike Flynn
Barack Obama's pavlovian adherence to a progressive worldview has sparked an
unexpected challenge to his reelection hopes: his administration's "war" on
the Catholic Church. Earlier this year, the Obama Administration,
implementing ObamaCare, finalized regulations that would require all
employers, including religious institutions, to provide free access to
contraceptives, abortion-inducing drugs and steriliza... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 15 September 9, 2016
The Battleground Poll and Trump's Path to Victory
By Bruce Walker
The GWU Battleground Poll published on September 9 shows Donald Trump a
clear path to victory: win the conservative vote. The data in this poll has
been consistent over the last two decades, and the data in the latest poll
is no different. The overwhelming majority of Americans are self-identified
conservatives.
The September 2016 Battleground Poll shows that 54% of all Americans are
self-identified conservativ... 阅读全帖 |
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w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 16 Poll: Romney lead grows in daily tracking poll
The latest national poll shows Mitt Romney with the largest lead over
President Obama this campaign based on Gallup's polling. In Gallup's Daily
Tracking poll out Thursday, Romney leads the president by 7 points, with
Romney obtaining 52 percent support of likely voters to Mr. Obama's 45
percent.
The results continue the latest trend shown in Gallup's polling - Romney
gaining an advantage in a race that has been consistently close. Just four
days ag... 阅读全帖 |
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l******a
发帖数: 3803 | 18 http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-travel-ban-polls-2017-2
President Donald Trump's executive order barring refugees and citizens from
seven majority-Muslim countries from entering the US is one of his most
popular so far, according to a new poll from Morning Consult and Politico.
The order has a 55% approval rating (with 35% saying they "strongly approve"
) with only 38% of voters polled saying they disapprove of it.
Opinions about the ban fall along partisan lines — 82% of Republicans
suppor... 阅读全帖 |
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m******1
发帖数: 19713 | 19 A new Quinnipiac poll reveals that a majority of New Jersey voters continue
to support same-sex marriage and want a referendum on the issue.
BY Julie Bolcer
May 17 2012 10:55 AM ET
6
According to the poll, voters in the Garden State back same-sex marriage by
53% to 42%, which is on par with findings from the winter. However, voters
across all age groups also want a referendum on the issue, a finding also in
line with polls earlier this year.
Among those who support same-sex marriage, support is ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 20 WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of adults say President Barack Obama does not
deserve a second term but are evenly divided on whether he will win re-
election next year, says a new Associated Press-GfK poll that highlights
some of the campaign obstacles he faces.
Although the public would prefer Obama be voted out of office, he fares
relatively well in potential matchups with Republicans Mitt Romney and Newt
Gingrich. Another bit of good news for the Democrat: For the first time
since spring, more ... 阅读全帖 |
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t*b
发帖数: 850 | 21 Pollsters developed all kinds of polling model or methods. Their goal is not
to make the pollling more accurate but easier for them to manipulate the
poll results.
For example, all polls left or right will interview citizens using a self-
developed population sampling theory. That is, if we poll 100 citizens, we
will have to poll x% registered democrats, y% republicans and (100-x-y)
independents. z% of the total interviewed has to be blacks, w% has to be
latino.....
Who determines x and y? the p... 阅读全帖 |
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s***5
发帖数: 453 | 22 http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html
A couple of other aspects of the Daybreak poll make it differ from most
other surveys:
Typically, polls ask people which candidate they favor or lean toward. Those
who say they don’t know or are undecided don’t get factored into
calculations of candidate support.
The Daybreak poll, by contrast, asks voters, using a 0-to-100 scale, to rate
their chances of voting for Clinton, for Trump or for some other candida... 阅读全帖 |
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h****n
发帖数: 3447 | 24 对呀，exit poll也是民意调查呀。难道不是调查那些投过票的人投给谁的结果吗？然
后反应所有人的结果呀。
问题是这个民意调查一般都是在poll结束以后才公布的，因为poll还没有结束，调查还
要继续的，我已经解释了，我还真不知道原来调查没结束就公布这个民意调查结果的。
但是字面上的确没问题，只要这个结果是投过票的人的就可以成为exit poll。因此才
搞出这个帖子的问题的呀。
难道你看到过cnn或者foxnews在poll结束以前公布过这个exit poll结果吗？这次解释
清楚了吧。
cnn和foxnews也正是因为每次都是最后时刻公布，而且往往还比较准，才让人非常重视
这个exit poll结果，当然如果不是这种效果，这个exit poll自然就没有那么大的魅力
了。实际上是被exit poll这个词吸引进的这个帖子呀。呵呵 |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 25 你说的 poll 是 raw poll. 任何数据不修改的 poll. WSJ 前一阵出个 raw poll,
trump 领先几个点。
一般 poll 都是加上自己的推断。比如 Monmouth 有个 poll, raw poll trump 领先。
Monmouth 就用 2012 年的 turnout, 还有其他什么，一加权，最后对外公布的结果就
变成了希拉里领先好几个点。但是 2012 turnout 会和现在一样吗？希拉里没有黑肤色
，相信黑人的 turnout 就不会像 2012 年。况且从 rally 人数就看出，她的 base 热
情不高， turnout 只会走低不会走高。
现在的 poll 基本都是加上自己的推断。主流媒体操纵 poll 的一个手段之一。以此来
影响选举结果。 |
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q***0
发帖数: 225 | 26 你以为搞统计的人都是吃白饭的啊？poll的方法是不断在改善的。先说Henry Truman那
次，几十年前的polling办法容易出错不说，最大的问题是电话还不完全普及，poll没
有调查到很多穷人。当然poll不是fool proof，会出错，这也是538网站把所有poll的
data都拿来分析。2012年Gallap poll 错了，但是绝大部分的poll是对的。
说起poll里女选民和男选民，或者两党比例不一样，这不是错误，而是根据以前的
data处理过了，为的是让poll更准确 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 27 Good news for Donald Trump: Your poll numbers are now better than Hillary
Clinton’s
President Trump has had a trying first six weeks as president. But at least
Americans don't seem to have buyer's remorse.
As Hillary Clinton makes her reemergence with a speech at the Kennedy Center
in Washington on Wednesday night, a new poll shows her with her worst image
numbers ever. The Suffolk University poll shows that just 35 percent of
registered voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared with ... 阅读全帖 |
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z*******n
发帖数: 1034 | 28 Pricing tracking and alerts service Nifti is testing the waters with a new
application called Cinch (no, not Klout’s advice-giving app also called
Cinch, but very close.) In fact, Nifti’s new app is practically a variation
on Klout’s earlier arrival, as Klout’s Cinch is about asking for
recommendations and Nifti’s Cinch is about asking for opinions. That is, it
’s meant to be a quick way to poll your friends and get their feedback by
posting photos and asking friends to choose which is best.
The... 阅读全帖 |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 29 Posted on Advocate.com August 11, 2011 11:25:00 AM ET
Poll: New Yorkers Pleased With Marriage Equality Law
By Julie Bolcer
NEW YORK MARRIAGE REGISTRATION FORMS X390 (FAIR) | ADVOCATE.COM
A new poll indicates that a solid majority of New Yorkers supports the
marriage equality law that took effect last month, with 63% being opposed to
the prospect of overturning the measure.
The NY1/Marist poll found that 55% of New York State residents support the
new law, 36% oppose it and 9% are unsure. Among r... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 30 Most Americans blame Wall Street for the nation's economic predicament —
but they blame Washington more.
By Brynn Anderson, AP
Sarah Jones stands outside the Nebraska State Capitol during Occupy Lincoln
on Sunday.
By Brynn Anderson, AP
Sarah Jones stands outside the Nebraska State Capitol during Occupy Lincoln
on Sunday.
And in the democracy that fancies itself the capital of capitalism, more
than four in 10 people describe the U.S. economic system as personally
unfair to them. A USA TODAY/Gallu... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 31 By Niall Stanage - 11/07/11 05:15 AM ET
An overwhelming majority of likely voters think it’s important to consider
a politician’s private foibles when assessing his or her suitability for
office.
But they also contend that presidential campaigns have become dirtier over
the past generation, perhaps indicating a reluctance to accept allegations
against particular candidates at face value.
The results of this week’s The Hill Poll indicate that 85 percent of voters
regard the way a politician condu... 阅读全帖 |
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B**W
发帖数: 2273 | 32 Washington (CNN) - Newt Gingrich's lead in the race for the GOP presidential
nomination has evaporated, according to a new national survey.
A CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday indicates that 28% of
Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say the former House
speaker is their choice for their party's nominee, with an equal amount
supporting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. In CNN's previous national
poll, conducted last month, Gingrich held a 24%-20% margin over Romne... 阅读全帖 |
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t***5
发帖数: 1057 | 33 全文在这里：
A just-released USA Today/Gallup Poll finds swing state voters are now split
48-48 between President Barack Obama and Republican candidate former
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — and that Obama has a four point “bounce”
since the last poll in October:
Voters in swing states are evenly split between President Obama and GOP
nominee Mitt Romney, according to a new poll from USA Today/Gallup.
The poll released late Sunday finds 48 percent of likely voters in the
nation’s key battlegrounds bac... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****g
发帖数: 21627 | 34 Rand Paul wins CPAC straw poll; Rubio close second
By NBC's Domenico Montanaro
CPAC stands with Rand.
“Torch of liberty” scion Rand Paul was the choice of the plurality of
conservatives at the Conservative Political Action Conference, as Paul won
the much-hyped straw poll with 25 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was a
close second with 23 percent.
It shouldn’t be surprising that the Kentucky senator won the straw poll.
This was not a weekend of self-reflection for conservatives. It was one of
s... 阅读全帖 |
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l******d
发帖数: 1633 | 35 arg 的 poll 是 pro kasich
from 538
I’m seeing a lot of people get excited about an American Research Group
poll that shows Kasich (!) pulling ahead of Trump in Michigan, 33 percent to
31 percent. It’s a newsy result, but here’s why you should be a little
skeptical.
First, American Research Group is not a highly-rated pollster. In fact, they
rank toward the bottom of our pollster ratings. Much to their credit, they
’ll sometimes post results that are way different from the pack, so you can
’t accus... 阅读全帖 |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 36 https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-just-pulled-ahead-clinton-141951200
.html
Donald Trump just took the lead in a major national poll for the first time
in roughly six weeks.
In a Rasmussen poll released Thursday, Trump held a 4-point lead over
presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Of the 1,000 likely voters
surveyed, the presumptive Republican nominee won over 43% of support,
compared with Clinton's 39%.
The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll is the ... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2
发帖数: 6571 | 37 Breaking Poll: Rick Perry Leads Ted Cruz by 9 Points in Texas Senate Race
Jim Hoft Aug 18th, 2016 9:03 am 320 Comments
Former Governor Rick Perry leads controversial Senator Ted Cruz in the
latest poll for the Texas Senate race.
rick perry
Senator Cruz stunned conservatives when he refused to endorse Donald Trump
at the RNC Convention in Cleveland.
This came after Cruz was thumped in the GOP primary race.
The crowd booed him off the consention stage.
Perry leads Cruz in a senate primary matchup ... 阅读全帖 |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 38 英国脱欧，纽卡斯尔地区poll和实际差了15%,因为媒体采用的poll样本把白领地区投票
比例放在70%，而劳工地区放40%, 而实际哪些劳工地区投票超过传统白领，poll这么会
不错？
: 是的，雇主当然要准确性，但发布哪个样本结果和poll公司准确性没有关系，也
从来没
: 有媒体解释poll不准的原因，英国脱欧为何poll差了10%，是因为几乎所有媒体
采用的
: poll样本都把英国东部投票比例设定在50%,而把伦敦定为75%,
: 所以poll公司没用，他们没有发布选择权。
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 39 老头核心就是40%。
Kamala Harris in dead heat with Trump in 2020 poll, but other Democrats win
handily
A new poll released Public Policy Polling projects that five different
potential Democratic 2020 challengers would defeat incumbent President
Donald Trump, but at varying margins of victory.
According to the poll:
Former Vice President Joe Biden defeats Trump 54 percent to 39 percent
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders defeats Trump 52 percent to 39 percent
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren defeats Tru... 阅读全帖 |
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g******o
发帖数: 4042 | 40 Fox News Poll: 66 percent favor path to citizenship for illegal immigrants,
with conditions
By Dana Blanton
Published January 28, 2013
FoxNews.com
The latest Fox News poll shows a majority of American voters believes
illegal immigrants should be given a chance to apply for citizenship, as
long as they meet certain requirements.
The poll asked voters what government policy should be toward illegal
immigrants currently in the U.S. Two thirds -- 66 percent -- think there
should be a path to citiz... 阅读全帖 |
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P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 41 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: PTO (Patent and Trademark Office), 信区: USANews
标 题: Poll of Polls show Mitt Romney will win the 2012 election
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Oct 20 20:25:53 2012, 美东)
http://www.examiner.com/article/poll-of-polls-obama-vs-romney-s
Sahit Muja: With just 16 days left before the presidential election, Mitt
Romney has sustained the momentum he gained from the debate. A series of
polls conducted over two weeks of likely voters showed that Mitt Romney
gained ground on President Oba... 阅读全帖 |
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u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 42 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/06/nyregion/de-blasio-is-elected
Bill de Blasio shared a laugh with the Brooklyn borough president, Marty
Markowitz, right, at a campaign stop on Tuesday.
By MICHAEL BARBARO and DAVID W. CHEN
Published: November 5, 2013 47 Comments
FACEBOOK
TWITTER
GOOGLE+
SAVE
E-MAIL
SHARE
PRINT
REPRINTS
Bill de Blasio, who transformed himself from a little-known occupant of an
obscure office into the fiery voice of New York’s disillusionment with a
new gilded age, was elected the... 阅读全帖 |
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M**Q
发帖数: 477 | 43 http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/14/politics/donald-trump-new-poll-mo
Story highlights
Donald Trump is at 41% support of Republican voters in a Monmouth University
poll out Monday
In second was the rising Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, at 14%; followed by Republican
Sen. Marco Rubio, at 10%.
Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has hit a new milestone in national polling,
garnering 41% of the Republican vote in a new national poll.
Trump is at 41% in a Monmouth University poll out Monday, holding a wide
advantage over ... 阅读全帖 |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 44 NOM, the National Organization for Marriage, Tuesday issued results of a
poll that claims, “57% of New Yorkers Reject Same-Sex Marriage, Just
One in Four Want the Legislature to Decide the Issue,” but an examination
of the published results indicate the poll methodology is severely flawed,
heavily weighted with older, conservative respondents, and the pollster, QEV
, is an organization whose marketing brags of its president’s affiliation
with the Republican Party.
NOM, identified as an “a... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 45 CNN) – President Barack Obama's overall approval rating has dropped below
50 percent as a growing number of Americans worry that the U.S. is likely to
slip into another Great Depression within the next 12 months, according to
a new national poll.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday also indicate
that the economy overall remains issue number one to voters, with other
economic issues - unemployment, gas prices and the federal deficit - taking
three of the remaining four spot... 阅读全帖 |
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w**d
发帖数: 956 | 46 有兴趣的可以看看读者的评论，indiana 的人民终于开始认清tea party extremist 的
危害了。
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/mourdock-senate-rape-abortio
Mourdock trails by 11 points in Indiana Senate race, new poll shows
Mourdock (AP/File)
Richard Mourdock--the Indiana Republican Senate candidate who sparked a
controversy during a debate last month when he said he opposes abortion even
in the case of rape because "it is something that God intended to happen"--
is now trailing Democrat Joe Donnelly by 11 points, a new state po... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 47 A new poll released by Public Policy Polling on Friday finds Sen. Ted Cruz
now leading the pack of possible candidates for the 2016 Republican
nomination. Garnering support from 20% of Republican voters nationwide, he
edges out Sen. Rand Paul who was support from 17% of GOP voters. Tied for
5th is Sen. Marco Rubio. The results are an inverse of PPP's poll in May,
which found Rubio the favorite and Cruz in 6th place for the nomination.
In May, PPP found that Rubio had almost three-times the supp... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 48 by Jammie
I don’t watch CNN, but I imagine Wolf Blitzer must be wetting himself like
when Bush fell below 40%. Aw, who am I kidding? Reid and Obama’s filibuster
stunt today was designed to obscure the fact Obama’s a total failure. We
can’t wait for the next NBC poll to drop so the drooling morons at MSNBC
can self-immolate on live television.
As President Barack Obama’s approval rating hits another all-time low,
a new national survey also indicates that Americans say the President has
less p... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 49 Poll: At Least 11% of Employer-Based Insurance Plans 'Discontinued'
The mainstream media is currently either ignoring ObamaCare's problems or
writing happy talk pieces about how it has turned the corner. But out in the
real world, an Associated Press-GfK ObamaCare poll reveals that the
president's signature piece of legislation is now hurting the lives of a
much larger pool of Americans than the media is letting on. A full 69% of
those who have private or employer-based insurance will pay more n... 阅读全帖 |
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h****n
发帖数: 3447 | 50 我的理解认为exit poll这个就是poll结束以后才发的，cnn, foxnews这么多次了
从来就没有在poll没结束以前公布这个结果的，每次都要等到结束那一刻公布这个exit
poll结果。我真不知道用这个词不一样。你这个点发的，让我以为有媒体有超能力了
。而且现在看来它那个没等结束就公布的exit poll结果还是和真实差很多的。
不好意思我真没理解上去你发的这个exit poll的意思原来是字面的意思。回来改帖子
是因为突然想到也可能最后几十分钟没人投票了，自然就可以公布exit poll结果了，
反正也不会有什么可改变的了。呵呵 |
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