s****s
发帖数: 2163 | 1 http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RR
highlight:
The past year's steep drop in the median price slowed significantly,
indicating that the market might be near its price bottom, a real estate
information service reported.
Bay Area home sales continue climb, median still below $300K
April 16, 2009
La Jolla, CA.----The number of homes sold in the Bay Area rose for the
seventh month in a row in March, the result of continued bargain hunting in
the East Bay and other foreclosure-discounted communities. The past year's
steep drop in the median price slowed significantly, indicating that the
market might be near its price bottom, a real estate information service
reported.
A total of 6,325 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-
county Bay Area last month. That was up 25.7 percent from 5,032 in February
and up 29.1 percent from 4,898 in March 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of
San Diego.
Last year's March was the slowest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back
to 1988. Last month was the third-slowest March of all time, ahead of last
year and 6,210 sales in March 1995. March sales have averaged 9,025 and
peaked in March 2004 at 12,645 sales.
"More than any other region, the Bay Area is waiting for so-called jumbo
loans to come back on line. Even with prices off their peaks, most home
purchases in the upper half of the market still require a mortgage for more
than $417,000, which are far more difficult to come by. We think there’s a
good chance those larger loans will become more available during the second
or third quarter,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
"For now, the extent to which prices have fallen in the upscale markets is
more difficult to gauge," he added, "because many of those areas are
essentially in hibernation, with scant sales."
Mortgages for more than $417,000 were used to finance 19.0 percent of the
Bay Area's home sales last month, compared with more than 60 percent before
the credit crunch hit in late summer 2007.
The use of government-insured FHA loans - a common choice among first-time
buyers - represented a record 25.4 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans in
March, up from 1.5 percent a year ago.
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos combined fell
to $290,000 last month. That was down 1.7 percent from $295,000 in February
and down 45.9 percent from $536,000 a year ago. It was 56.4 percent below
the peak median of $665,000 reached in June and July of 2007.
The drop in median price overstates the decline in the value of the typical
Bay Area home, reflecting more the sluggishness of high-end sales, which are
now under-represented in the statistics.
Last month 51.2 percent of all Bay Area resale homes had been foreclosed on
at some point in the prior 12 months, down from 52.0 percent in February and
up from 23.2 percent a year ago. By county it ranged from 11.5 percent in
San Francisco to 70.0 in Solano.
San Diego-based MDA DataQuick is a division of MDA Lending Solutions, a
subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. MDA
DataQuick monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information
to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending
institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Because of late data
availability, sales counts were estimated in Alameda and San Mateo counties.
The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed
themselves to paying was $1,245 last month, down from $1,286 the previous
month, and down from $2,553 a year ago. Last month’s typical mortgage
payment, which assumes 20 percent down and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage,
was the lowest since February 1997 when it was $1,236. Adjusted for
inflation, current payments are at an all-time low. They are 51.9 percent
below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real
estate cycle. They are 64.5 percent below the current cycle's peak in July
2007.
Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions.
Foreclosure activity is nearing its 2008 peak, while financing with
adjustable-rate mortgages is at an all-time low, as is financing with
multiple mortgages. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, and
non-owner occupied buying activity is above-average in some markets, MDA
DataQuick reported.
Sales Volume Median Price
All homes Mar-08 Mar-09 %Chng Mar-08 Mar-09 %Chng
Alameda 971 1,216 25.2% $487,500 $280,000 -42
.6%
Contra Costa 973 1,639 68.4% $420,500 $220,000 -47
.7%
Marin 148 161 8.8% $788,500 $585,000 -25.
8%
Napa 72 124 72.2% $469,000 $339,000 -27
.7%
Santa Clara 1,105 1,288 16.6% $620,000 $390,000 -37
.1%
San Francisco 508 332 -34.6% $755,000 $608,000 -19
.5%
San Mateo 438 380 -13.2% $723,000 $506,000 -30
.0%
Solano 356 722 102.8% $330,000 $180,000 -45
.5%
Sonoma 327 463 41.6% $409,500 $304,100 -25
.7%
Bay Area 4,898 6,325 29.1% $536,000 $290,000 -45
.9%
Source: MDA DataQuick Information Systems, www.DQNews.com
Media calls: Andrew LePage (916) 456-7157 or John Karevoll (909) 867-9534
Copyright 2009 DataQuick Information Systems. All rights reserved. | g********n
发帖数: 2314 | 2 低端的房价可能离底不远了。
高端的也开始打滑梯了，看看SF和SM这两个县，好区多，一般区也比东湾贵很多，销量
还在大幅下滑，价格开始降了。
中值房价可能触底，但是不意味着房价不会降了。举个极端的例子。
比如市场上2000栋房子在卖， 100万，90万，80万。。。10万各200栋。
这个月高端的全都卖不掉了， 50万～10万的全卖掉了， 中值房价30万。
过了半年，还是2000栋房子在市场上， 结果价格跌到55万，50万，45万。。。5.5万。全部卖掉。中值房价
还是30万。
in
【在 s****s 的大作中提到】
: http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RR
: highlight:
: The past year's steep drop in the median price slowed significantly,
: indicating that the market might be near its price bottom, a real estate
: information service reported.
: Bay Area home sales continue climb, median still below $300K
: April 16, 2009
: La Jolla, CA.----The number of homes sold in the Bay Area rose for the
: seventh month in a row in March, the result of continued bargain hunting in
: the East Bay and other foreclosure-discounted communities. The past year's
| s****s
发帖数: 2163 | 3 至少我觉得是the beginning of the end.
。全部卖掉。中值房价
【在 g********n 的大作中提到】
: 低端的房价可能离底不远了。
: 高端的也开始打滑梯了，看看SF和SM这两个县，好区多，一般区也比东湾贵很多，销量
: 还在大幅下滑，价格开始降了。
: 中值房价可能触底，但是不意味着房价不会降了。举个极端的例子。
: 比如市场上2000栋房子在卖， 100万，90万，80万。。。10万各200栋。
: 这个月高端的全都卖不掉了， 50万～10万的全卖掉了， 中值房价30万。
: 过了半年，还是2000栋房子在市场上， 结果价格跌到55万，50万，45万。。。5.5万。全部卖掉。中值房价
: 还是30万。
:
: in
| s*******e
发帖数: 4188 | 4 没错，在房市不均衡的时候DQ的中值不说明问题。一两年前高端交易量比重较大的时候
，中值还一直挺着。
。全部卖掉。中值房价
【在 g********n 的大作中提到】
: 低端的房价可能离底不远了。
: 高端的也开始打滑梯了，看看SF和SM这两个县，好区多，一般区也比东湾贵很多，销量
: 还在大幅下滑，价格开始降了。
: 中值房价可能触底，但是不意味着房价不会降了。举个极端的例子。
: 比如市场上2000栋房子在卖， 100万，90万，80万。。。10万各200栋。
: 这个月高端的全都卖不掉了， 50万～10万的全卖掉了， 中值房价30万。
: 过了半年，还是2000栋房子在市场上， 结果价格跌到55万，50万，45万。。。5.5万。全部卖掉。中值房价
: 还是30万。
:
: in
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