发帖数: 1 | 1 归根结底还是大家赌经济前景。就算一部分人撑死买房，只要有工作有cash flow来
cover mortage和生活开销，问题不大。就算不死撑，一旦发生长时间大萧条，长时间
失去工作的人也会有很多要被迫foreclose的。
但是一旦经济走下坡，buffer最少的人当然首先遭殃。07年那次就是过度宽松的贷款标
准令很多人投入到房地产市场，一部分是自住，一部分是投机，buffer少的人太多，经
济和利率一出现波动就导致大量人foreclose，然后就是连锁反应。但是如果没有充分
的数据，很难说现在buffer少的人有多少，在什么情况下（经济要波动多大）这些人才
会foreclose。上次危机之前市场还是死撑了一段时间才垮的，垮了后也不是一下房价
就到底了。因为只有经济不断下行才会有越来越多的人被迫foreclose，直到联储出手
稳定市场和市场自己调节到位。
所以从现在到下次downturn的时间点和下次downturn到谷底的时间点和下行的幅度，一
般人难以估计。 |
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f*****m
发帖数: 416 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 Living 讨论区 】
发信人: fulcrum (Flanker), 信区: Living
标 题: Housing Crash Is Hitting Cities Once Thought to Be Stable
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Feb 14 14:59:25 2011, 美东)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Housing-Crash-Is-Hitting-nytimes-
SEATTLE — Few believed the housing market here would ever collapse. Now
they wonder if it will ever stop
slumping.
The rolling real estate crash that ravaged Florida and the Southwest is
delivering a new wave of distress to
communities once thought to be immune — econ... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*****i
发帖数: 5548 | 3 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
xie91 (bob) 于 (Mon Mar 4 19:12:18 2013, 美东) 提到:
发信人: kylin1996 (kylin), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: Re: 再谈德州经验 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 4 17:16:16 2013, 美东)
看见有人说湾区收入高就笑了，给你们科普一下，猴子屯，13-15w年薪非常普通，20w
以上的一大把，加上公司100% match 6-12% 401k， 公司服务到退休有一次性上百万的
pension，还有一周工作四天一周工作五天，每年5周vacation，加州风景再美，这些能
比吗？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
delubo (I shall be your eyes!) 于 (Mon Mar 4 19:13:42 2013, 美东) 提到:
求介绍工作，我要跳槽
☆────────────────────────────... 阅读全帖 |
|
s******b
发帖数: 653 | 4 就算两年后油价起来了，硕士学位没有绿卡你也进不了油公司。
何况这里有谁能预测得准几年后的油价如何？
越老越吃香也是很似是而非的说法。首先假设你进得来这个行业，而这个行业隔几年就
一个downturn，就要炒一轮人。谁能保证每次公司踢人自己都是留下来一批？
就算你能survive每一轮downturn，一直做到30多年后退休，谁知道30年后这个行业还
有没有被新技术取代。
你还不如去job hunting版问cs master去什么学校读，毕业能在什么样的公司找到工作。
如果觉得年轻，想任性一次也可以。大不了浪费两年，毕业后再去读CS Master。 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 5 2008，09年根本连downturn算不上，你要看80年代真downturn,油福就使那时候开始变
成现在这个格局的，低油价时代，油公司必须收缩，最后变成一个银行，干活的都变成
油福
when |
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l**o
发帖数: 1240 | 6 同意这个看法。如果油服自己的位置摆正，成本核算清楚了，很多以前油工干的活都能
包下来。石油公司的成本想要减，必须把非核心的活bid出去。最后石油公司只做项目
的planning和financing，大多数operation都用油服来充数
2008，09年根本连downturn算不上，你要看80年代真downturn,油福就使那时候开始变
成现在这个格局的，低油价时代，油公司必须收缩，最后变成一个银行，干活的都变成
........ |
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L*1
发帖数: 11537 | 7 这就是版主关注太晚了。每个学校都有downturn的，不幸的是现在是伊利诺的downturn
时间。
篮球方面，问问本版著名ID LutherHead就知道了。十多年前伊利诺可是NCAA 2nd
round(32)常客，有一年是全国亚军。
橄榄球08年还打过Rose Bowl，比贵牛最后的辉煌时间上还近一些。 |
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Y******u
发帖数: 1090 | 8 This time the situation is worse. The downturn should have started in 2008.
But the stimulus plan postponed the crisis and worsened it.
The two downturns, one in early 90's and the other in 1998, were mitigated
by the release of manpower and progress of globalization. Now what do we
rely on?
Another important difference between now and then is the leadership. |
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l********s
发帖数: 1536 | 9 半导体？
半导体的cycle最明显，每过几年都要经历downturn. 这次的经济危机在本来的半导体
downturn上雪上加霜。
看公司layoff可不是好玩的。这个月底，公司就有第二次的layoff，sigh!
DD |
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y*****a
发帖数: 580 | 10 Most majors are cutting downstream budget significantly in 2010. Some
companies, for example conoco, are deciding to windling down the refinary
business. It is obvious that downstream is facing high pressure in
recruiting.
On the other hand, the upstream are expanding the budget. Although
positions are still scarce, the companies have far better outlook. Similar
in mining industry, which behaves pretty well in the downturn this time (
they were as ugly in the past downturns).
Here are some o |
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D********n
发帖数: 978 | 11 年关到...
ZURICH—Credit Suisse Group, which had emerged from the crisis relatively
unscathed, disclosed plans to scale back its investment bank, squeeze more
profits from private banking and slash 3,500 jobs.
In July, Credit Suisse, Switzerland's second-largest bank after UBS AG, said
it would reverse a hiring spree of the last couple of years, when the bank
hired employees from rivals that had suffered sharply during the financial
crisis. It then announced cuts of 2,000 jobs, as the bank adjusted ... 阅读全帖 |
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m****0
发帖数: 32 | 12 Earlier this fall, Steve Ferdman celebrated getting a job offer Credit
Suisse in the usual Wall Street fashion. Over expensive oysters and dark rum
cocktails at a trendy Manhattan restaurant with his parents, he toasted
landing the full-time position after working six months as a consultant
without benefits.
A week later, Mr. Ferdman, 28, sat alone at the same place and ordered a gin
and tonic to lament getting laid off by the bank, for the second time since
2008. When he told the bartender abou... 阅读全帖 |
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s*********e
发帖数: 884 | 13 B. Domestic Competitiveness
U.S. medical device companies are highly regarded globally for their
innovations and high technology products. Investment in medical device R&D
more than doubled during the 1990s, and R&D investment in the domestic
sector remains more than twice the average for all U.S. manufacturers
overall. The medical device sector also continues to benefit from a new
generation of materials, manufacturing processes, and technology, such as
nanotechnology and
micro-electro-mecha... 阅读全帖 |
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C*********y
发帖数: 1424 | 14 The Seven Habits - An Overview
Our character is a collection of our habits, and habits have a powerful role
in our lives. Habits consist of knowledge, skill, and desire. Knowledge
allows us to know what to do, skill gives us the ability to know how to do
it, and desire is the motivation to do it.
The Seven Habits move us through the following stages:
1. Dependence: the paradigm under which we are born, relying upon others
to take care of us.
2. Independence: the paradigm under which we can... 阅读全帖 |
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N***i
发帖数: 2063 | 15 From Zacks
By: Zacks Equity Research June 24, 2010
MAR | HOT | WYN | CHH | WOLF | HMIN | H | IHG | IHR | MCS | OEH | MHGC
With a gradual recovery of the global economy, the hotels and lodging
industry is experiencing an increase in demand. The operating metrics are
looking up, and year-over-year comparisons are becoming easier as the
operating environment was significantly stressed in the prior year.
Though businesses are still cost-conscious, the recovery in the economy has
seen a return of bus... 阅读全帖 |
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m*z
发帖数: 2356 | 16 Wall Street: The First Hindenburg Omen Confirmed
The feared Hindenburg Omen was Thursday confirmed in the US stock market as
the number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69, according to The
Wall Street Journal‘s interactive Market Data Center.
“The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective,
not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
The first omen was spotted on August 12th: “The indicator may suggest a
savage equity downturn is imminent,”... 阅读全帖 |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 17 http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/336235/Ten-Big-Com
Posted Sep 18, 2009 12:21pm EDT by Vincent Fernando and Joe Weisenthal in
Investing, Media, Products and Trends, Recession
From The Business Insider, Sept. 18, 2009:
Despite a few green shoots in the economy and a rocketing stock market, many
large companies are still struggling to avoid bankruptcy.
A new report by Audit Integrity identifies some high-profile names "that
have the highest probability of declaring bankruptcy among pub... 阅读全帖 |
|
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x******g
发帖数: 33885 | 19 去谷歌一下吧。
the prolonged economic downturn of the early and mid-1990s, in which an
estimated 31 percent of the population (46.5 million people) had incomes
below the poverty level, has increased the incidence of malnutrition, which
in turn lowers resistance to common ailments. Only individuals who have
their own gardens are assured a regular supply of fruits and vegetables |
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z*****g
发帖数: 592 | 20 This is a different story.
unioned government employees ask for more money for themselves government
couldnt collect from other tax payers due to the economic downturn.
They(government employees, like teachers, cops, firemen, state/city
employees) are the only people have unions. 20 years retired with full
pension plus lifetime health insurance, who pays? poor property owners who
work all their life to get a place to live and have to pay 7 or $8000 a year
in property tax to keep these doing noth... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 21 (1) 何丽, 中国造船业面临全球需求低谷. 金融时报, Mar 16, 2011.
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001037511/ce
, whose English counterpart is
Leslie Hook, China's Shipyards Steel Themselves for Downturn; News analysis;
After a meteriotic rise, doubts have surfaced About the Future of Industry.
Financial Times (FT), Mar 15, 2011.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea24467a
-4e64-11e0-98eb-00144feab49a.html
Quote:
"Mr Zhang’s company, Rongsheng, was on its way to becoming the sixth
largest shipyard in the world, the position it o... 阅读全帖 |
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E*V
发帖数: 17544 | 22 Chinese Students Pushed to Find Jesus at U.S. Christian Schools
2011-12-20 21:00:01.0 GMT
By Daniel Golden
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Haiying Wu’s family in Shandong
Province wasn’t religious. After a born-again Texan teaching
English in China advised her that Christian schools in the U.S.
are safe and academically strong, she enrolled at Ben Lippen
High School in Columbia, South Carolina.
Ben Lippen required her to attend church and chapel, take
Bible class, and join a Bible study group. At first, ... 阅读全帖 |
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J*V
发帖数: 3150 | 23 Recession Left Baby Bust as U.S. Births Lowest Since 1920
By Frank Bass - Nov 30, 2012 12:01 AM ET.
.
Facebook Share
LinkedIn
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73 Comments
Print
QUEUE
Q
..
Getty Images
The U.S. birth rate in 2011 was 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age,
according to preliminary numbers. That’s down by almost half from a peak of
122.7 in 1957 during the postwar baby boom.
The U.S. birth rate fell to a record low last year, driven by a decline in
the number of babies born to immigrant women, who hav... 阅读全帖 |
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M*V
发帖数: 3205 | 24 China Property Prices Decline
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020455390457710531
By OWEN FLETCHER And ESTHER FUNG
BEIJING—Average property prices in Chinese cities saw a second consecutive
monthly drop in November, according to government data released Sunday, in a
further sign that Beijing's two-year tightening campaign to cool the red-
hot property market is having an impact.
Data on 70 Chinese cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics and
analyzed by The Wall Street Jo... 阅读全帖 |
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D**S
发帖数: 24887 | 25 There is the possibility, though not convincingly significant, that the
rental market will shift towards owners' advantage when they find that they
may be stuck with renting their properties for longer than they wished.
Maybe they will forge some sort of coalition and artificially increase the
average rental price. It is hard to predict. The opposite is also possible--
that more units end up on the rental market causing some downturn for the
ongoing rent. |
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l*****e
发帖数: 82 | 26 进口的影响是夸大了的，应该和进口合起来看
http://www.economist.com/node/9861591 还有
http://www.allroadsleadtochina.com/reports/prc_270907.pdf
“Exports account for over 40% of China's GDP, so some economists predict
that a fall in exports as a result of a downturn in America would create
massive excess capacity and a sharp fall in profits and investment—the
making of a nasty hard landing. But the popular notion that China is
dependent on export-led growth is a myth; domestic demand is much more
important. This year th |
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a****t
发帖数: 7049 | 27 The state’s peak losses, both in absolute and relative terms, came between
2004 and 2006, when the state lost 614,877 residents more than it gained
from the rest of the country. But relative to other states, New York’s
highest rate of out-migration came between 2000 and 2004, when the impact of
the relatively brief 2000-01 recession was compounded by a sharp Wall
Street downturn and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
The budget office looked at tax returns between 1989 and 2007 to analyze the
coming |
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 28 答案：下岗（Layoff）.
What Makes America Great: Layoffs!
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/what-makes-america-great-layoffs/
By Barry Ritholtz - September 1st, 2010, 6:47AM
I am watching Squawk Box around 6:30am as I get dressed this morning. The
conversation turns to various incentives in Germany, where firms are
actually paid not to lay people off in a downturn. (Firms cut hours, but
keep most of their staff). The lower German unemployment rate of 7% has less
people with financial hardship, so the |
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w********r
发帖数: 3183 | 29
这句话说的太好了, 最新的统计, 本次DOWNTURN, 中产阶级家庭减少, 百万富翁数量增
加, 美国人民没有因为经济危机而受损失. 不象中国, 扩大内需, 国家债务增加, 农民
工增加, 被剥削, 贫困人口增加. |
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E*V
发帖数: 17544 | 30 BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told the European Union on
Wednesday to stop piling pressure on Beijing to revalue its currency, saying
a rapid shift could unleash disastrous social turmoil.
Wen told an EU-China business forum in Brussels that China would implement a
reform of its currency regime announced in June, making the exchange rate
more flexible, but rebuffed calls from EU leaders for a rapid and
substantial appreciation.
"Do not work to pressurize us on the renminbi rate... 阅读全帖 |
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g**1
发帖数: 10330 | 31 http://www.cnbc.com//id/39567592
Moody's Puts China in Line for Possible Credit Upgrade
Published: Friday, 8 Oct 2010 | 12:36 AM ET Text Size
By: Reuters
Moody's Investors Service rewarded China on Friday for its response to
the global financial crisis by placing the government's bond rating on
review for a possible upgrade.
China's resilient economic performance, the prospect of continued strong
growth over the medium term and the likelihood that Beijing can handle
any losses from an unpreceden... 阅读全帖 |
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 32 Real GDP declined in all eight BEA regions in 2009. The sharpest downturn
was in the Great Lakes region where the decline in real GDP accelerated to 3
.4 percent in 2009 from a decline of 0.6 percent in 2008. Real GDP declined
in 2009 in all five states of the Great Lakes region, led by Michigan with a
decline of 5.2 percent. |
|
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o****y
发帖数: 26355 | 34 If the economy crisis is lasting forever ah.
At least, US and European experienced the economy crisis many times, they
all survived so far.
China has not experienced any economy downturn in last 30 years. |
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 35 What's your logic? US and European were not challenged during the crisis in
their history, but not anymore. The developing countries are catching up.
If the economy crisis is lasting forever ah.
At least, US and European experienced the economy crisis many times, they
all survived so far.
China has not experienced any economy downturn in last 30 years. |
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u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 36 中国加大对欧洲支持的力度，答应继续买入西班牙等国家债券，这背后是什么原因呢？
答案是：为了中国自己的出口。欧洲市场占了中国出口的25％，超过美国的市场。
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/07/business/global/07euchina.htm
－－－－－－－－
Behind China’s Charm Offensive in Europe
Vice Premier Li Keqiang is in Europe on the latest of several visits to the
continent by top Chinese officials, and the New York Times is asking, “What
’s with China’s charm offensive in Europe?“:
Chinese officials have stepped up their vows of support for Europe in
the past several weeks, and have grown... 阅读全帖 |
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d*****l
发帖数: 8441 | 37 冒出无数评级评价研究咨询公司（香港基地）。
炮制虚假研究报告，做空股票从中牟利。
China Agritech Further Responds to Misleading Allegations
BEIJING, Feb. 10, 2011 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- China Agritech, Inc. (
Nasdaq: CAGC) ('China Agritech', or the "Company'), a leading organic
compound fertilizer manufacturer and distributor in China, today provided a
more detailed response to the inaccurate facts and misleading allegations in
a recent report by LM Research, a short seller in the Company's stock.
Contrary to the LM Research re... 阅读全帖 |
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L******f
发帖数: 5368 | 38 NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Obama administration will propose a wind-down of
government-controlled mortgage buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according
to documents obtained by Reuters.
The White House proposed three long-term options to reduce the government's
role in the housing market and took several shorter term steps aimed at
raising the cost of government-backed mortgages.
KEY POINTS: * Report recommends phasing in higher pricing for Fannie,
Freddie to level even with private sector over se... 阅读全帖 |
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w***t
发帖数: 8175 | 39 http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110214/ap_on_re_us/us_general_moto
DETROIT – General Motors Co. will pay more than $189 million in profit-
sharing to 48,000 U.S. hourly workers and millions more in performance
bonuses to salaried employees, according to company documents obtained by
The Associated Press.
GM will pay most hourly workers more than $4,000 each as compensation for
its strong financial performance last year, said a person briefed on the
bonuses. The payments come less than two years aft... 阅读全帖 |
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i***a
发帖数: 4718 | 40 社会风险和利益分配不公平。花街的风险，亏大了总有政府买单，那也是纳税人的钱。
赚了就进私人腰包了。经济DOWNTURN，总是中下层买单。 美国在从科技资本蜕变成金
融资本，贫富差距会持续。
WISCONSIN不是加州，ILLINOIS。之前还预计有盈余的。WALKER上台后，估计是给资方
减税，所以预算就有亏损了。然后为削减开支，就拿政府雇员开刀了。 他老兄也是要
借GOP这股风，在NATIONAL POLITICS舞台上卡位罢了。 |
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k**0
发帖数: 19737 | 41 How Germany Became the China of Europe
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2053595,00.htm
There is no particularly special technology needed to make a chainsaw. It's
really just plastic and metal parts screwed together with old-fashioned nuts
and bolts. The Chinese already make chainsaws. But that hasn't stopped
German power-tool manufacturer Stihl from selling its made-in-Germany
chainsaws around the world, even though its top-end models are among the
priciest on the market. In fac... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 42 (1) is about US industry. To read about Taiwan's, go directly to the bottom
of this posting.
(1) Bob Tita, Boat Industry Stays Afloat. Wall Street Journal, Mar 9, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110225-711709.html
(US recreational boat industry)
Quote:
"Our biggest competitors became our own boats that were being repossessed,'
said Irwin Jacobs, cofounder of boat maker J&D Holdings LLC in Minnesota.
"Genmar Holdings Inc., the second-largest U.S. boat builder behind Brunswick
My comme... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********k
发帖数: 118 | 43 There are two sub-problems here: (1) Do we need stimulus plan. (2) What is
the plan (what size, what industry sector, and etc.)
In the past, the government just mixed the two sub-problems together to
confuse people.
First, I believe stimulus plan is necessary at that moment, otherwise, the
shock of the unemployment and economic downturn might bring big trouble.
Second, 4 trillion (finally 9 trillion) is not a proper size. Our GDP is
roughly 35% of US at that moment, what is the reason to set up... 阅读全帖 |
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u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 44 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/10/business/global/10yuan.html?_
Chinese Exports Hit Record for April
By KEITH BRADSHER
Published: May 10, 2011
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o
HONG KONG — China’s exports surged last month to a record level, as
Chinese factories appear to have passed on rising costs to buyers who are
finding that they have few al... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******h
发帖数: 2882 | 45 http://www.africa-asia-confidential.com/article/id/566/Shine-on
Shine on you crazy diamond
The diamond mines have been closely guarded by the Angolan elite and a
Chinese company is set to make its first investment in Angola’s precious
stones
The ownership and control of the multi-billion-dollar China Sonangol joint
venture continue to baffle business people in Luanda. Ask officials from
Beijing about China Sonangol and the response is an embarrassed disavowal
and an insistence that it is purely ... 阅读全帖 |
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S**********r
发帖数: 226 | 46 民不聊生阿...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110621/ts_yblog_thel
Some people who need medical care but can't afford it go to the emergency
room. Others just hope they'll get better. James Richard Verone robbed a
bank.
Earlier this month, Verone (pictured), a 59-year-old convenience store clerk
, walked into a Gaston, N.C., bank and handed the cashier a note demanding $
1 and medical attention. Then he waited calmly for police to show up.
He's now in jail and has an appointment with a doc... 阅读全帖 |
|
E*V
发帖数: 17544 | 47 Some people who need medical care but can't afford it go to the emergency
room. Others just hope they'll get better. James Richard Verone robbed a
bank.
Earlier this month, Verone (pictured), a 59-year-old convenience store clerk
, walked into a Gaston, N.C., bank and handed the cashier a note demanding $
1 and medical attention. Then he waited calmly for police to show up.
He's now in jail and has an appointment with a doctor this week.
Verone's problems started when he lost the job he'd held f... 阅读全帖 |
|
a****1
发帖数: 654 | 48 Man robs bank to get medical care in jail
Some people who need medical care but can't afford it go to the emergency
room. Others just hope they'll get better. James Richard Verone robbed a
bank.
Earlier this month, Verone (pictured), a 59-year-old convenience store clerk
, walked into a Gaston, N.C., bank and handed the cashier a note demanding $
1 and medical attention. Then he waited calmly for police to show up.
He's now in jail and has an appointment with a doctor this week.
Verone's problem... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 49 (1) Evan Ramstad, Shipyards Running Aground; Recession's lagging effect on
orders forces South Korean shipbuilders to cut payrolls, shift course. Wall
Street Journal, June 23, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527
02304778304576375972346103698.html
Quote:
"The downturn is affecting shipyards world-wide. China's shipbuilding
association last month said some of the country's yards would suspend
production after completing existing orders.
"Ships are the country's [Korea's] biggest expo... 阅读全帖 |
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