|
p****6
发帖数: 724 | 2 经历过上次危机的老鸟们都这么说，国内现在有点这个意思。
[在 gswd (brokenstone) 的大作中提到：]
：扯淡。。。我老板经常跟我们说，你们这些年轻人看到一点风吹草动就激动，没见过
世面，完全不知道什么是真正的泡沫，2000年的时候基本是个人会扯一点ebiz，会做网
页，就能在硅谷拿高薪，光股票都是一年10万以上，纳斯达克9个月就翻了一番，很多公
：司每半年股价就翻两番或三番。现在充其量只是个小泡泡，完全不能跟2000年比
：........... |
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j******8
发帖数: 746 | 3 不是瞎猜，这个经济周期是客观存在的。出现泡沫，然后修正而已。
多公 |
|
m**m
发帖数: 5500 | 4 如果你住cupertino，saratoga之类地方，建议别跳了。。如果你住palo alto，los
altos等地方，跳不跳无所谓。。
关键是你现在也很轻松，给果加分不少。而且如果downturn来了，继续做果子硬弓也是
不错的防御态势。
我生活中知道的几个果子硬弓拿到g offer最后没一个接受的，基本上就是掐准
鸡肋点了。同样的offer如果换qcom之类的candidate就是跪舔，感受一下果家的高大上
吧。
最后，你们硬弓比这里一帮刷题的小混混有社会价值多了，虽然挣得少点，哈。 |
|
d****r
发帖数: 300 | 5 如果下一个经济downturn来了，感觉对uber/Lynt是一个发展机会，失业的人会大量去
干这个，会把这个行业的优势放大一下，而且也不影响领失业救济金，win win啊 |
|
e***y
发帖数: 4307 | 6 经济downturn人们出行肯定减少，不会随随便便打车了 |
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m**m
发帖数: 5500 | 7 看起来没娃。有娃的，这贴会发在sf版，问的只有学区房一个问题。。
最极端的cost of living算法是：- house appreciation + living cost + 住小房的精
神损失
根据经验来看，房子涨的越多，这精神损失tmd就很邪门地越来越小；来湾区越晚，这
appreciation的期望值就越低，入门（买下来）难度还越大。
所以，变成了一个博弈。。这个公式的各个factor到底将来会怎么变？
可惜offer不管你。如果有个房子赚了很多的local candidate和你竞争同一职位，他的
精神损失是负的，他只要听到有免费饭和好福利就屁颠接受了。而你还在用公式计算尼
玛成本差别。。对他来说根本是西雅图给的多他都不会离开弯曲。。
所以timing is everything. 现在比较靠谱的方法应该是来，拿住钱，把水平提升上去
，一个downturn之后，你就翻身了。可惜前提是你要踩着很多人尸体爬上去。不过这也
很公平。凭什么半岛出嫁的和你一个未来？不是吗？屠杀后才有外地来的强者的机会，
否则完全是看你早来晚来。 |
|
m**m
发帖数: 5500 | 8 再说个timing的。07年前后很多朋友咬牙买房了，但因为房子贵，买在东湾之类，有些
晚来的，单职工的买不起，只好继续租。
结果08年崩后，开始那批买房的被套住很多年，原来更穷的那几个，本不是房黑，结果
2010年左右陆续出手了，有一个还居然买在超一线，现在增值超过百万。
这就是timing的命。但也要看到，downturn应该是有利于强者的，强者恒强，需要的是
一点眼光。
现在L大跌是“好消息”。不知道会不会有大裁员，也不知道是局限于互联网行业还是
会波及整个硅谷，但要有信心，要相信cycle还会回来，现在要做的就是让这批乱七八
糟的半岛出嫁的死掉。他们可以十年后再回来接手你的房。 |
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m**m
发帖数: 5500 | 9 看起来没娃。有娃的，这贴会发在sf版，问的只有学区房一个问题。。
最极端的cost of living算法是：- house appreciation + living cost + 住小房的精
神损失
根据经验来看，房子涨的越多，这精神损失tmd就很邪门地越来越小；来湾区越晚，这
appreciation的期望值就越低，入门（买下来）难度还越大。
所以，变成了一个博弈。。这个公式的各个factor到底将来会怎么变？
可惜offer不管你。如果有个房子赚了很多的local candidate和你竞争同一职位，他的
精神损失是负的，他只要听到有免费饭和好福利就屁颠接受了。而你还在用公式计算尼
玛成本差别。。对他来说根本是西雅图给的多他都不会离开弯曲。。
所以timing is everything. 现在比较靠谱的方法应该是来，拿住钱，把水平提升上去
，一个downturn之后，你就翻身了。可惜前提是你要踩着很多人尸体爬上去。不过这也
很公平。凭什么半岛出嫁的和你一个未来？不是吗？屠杀后才有外地来的强者的机会，
否则完全是看你早来晚来。 |
|
m**m
发帖数: 5500 | 10 再说个timing的。07年前后很多朋友咬牙买房了，但因为房子贵，买在东湾之类，有些
晚来的，单职工的买不起，只好继续租。
结果08年崩后，开始那批买房的被套住很多年，原来更穷的那几个，本不是房黑，结果
2010年左右陆续出手了，有一个还居然买在超一线，现在增值超过百万。
这就是timing的命。但也要看到，downturn应该是有利于强者的，强者恒强，需要的是
一点眼光。
现在L大跌是“好消息”。不知道会不会有大裁员，也不知道是局限于互联网行业还是
会波及整个硅谷，但要有信心，要相信cycle还会回来，现在要做的就是让这批乱七八
糟的半岛出嫁的死掉。他们可以十年后再回来接手你的房。 |
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l*********o
发帖数: 3091 | 11 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: liangmaomao (UCLA之猛抓大腿), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 房价已经到顶
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Feb 15 20:54:27 2016, 美东)
周围陆续听到layoff的情况。虽然猎头还有很多职位，但新的一轮downturn已经开始了
。就像2008年。 |
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w**z
发帖数: 8232 | 12 http://www.businessinsider.com/r-silicon-valley-venture-capital
By Heather Somerville
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Venture capitalists are raising money at the
fastest rate in a decade, raking in about $13 billion in the first quarter
of 2016.
But much of that cash won't flow into new startups anytime soon. Rather,
venture firms are bracing for a downturn and boosting reserves to keep
companies they have already backed from going bust, said venture capitalists
and limited partners.
"They are squirr... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 13 http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/13/technology/india-startup-bubble/index.html
India's great startup boom has come to an end.
by Huizhong Wu and Sara Ashley O'Brien @CNNTech
October 13, 2016: 11:35 AM ET
After a sustained funding frenzy, investor enthusiasm for the country's tech
startups has fallen sharply this year. Weaker firms are laying off
employees and some have closed up shop altogether.
Startup funding in the second quarter plummeted to $583 million from its
recent peak of nearly $3 bill... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
发帖数: 1 | 15 那还等什么，赶快行动起来啊
bubble的时候不赚钱，downturn的时候更是吃土啊
[在 codeblue (土过，土着) 的大作中提到：]
:Base+Bonus和”二线”比并不高。Sign-On高一些。真正高的是RSU。一般4年～40万。
:每年还有Refresh。关键是FG股价一直涨。特别是F，有些人靠RSU发财了。
:☆ 发自 iPhone 买买提 1.24 |
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l*****o
发帖数: 74 | 16 上个月被laid off 了因为经济downturn 公司laid off 了很多人。今天有个新公司面
试。他问我为什么离开前公司？I said I left. and then he ask: did you leave
voluntarily or involuntary?
我该怎么回答呢？Can I tell him the truth that I was laid off?
谢谢 |
|
c********h
发帖数: 191 | 17 New Single-Family Home Sales Jump 9.4 Percent In February
March 24, 2005 - Sales of new single-family homes shook off a weather-related
downturn in January as the February sales pace increased 9.4 percent to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.226 million units, the U.S. Commerce
Department reported today.
“Builders expected single-family home sales to remain strong,” said David
Wilson president of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a
custom home builder from Ketchum, Idaho. |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 18 1. It is said that only the fools know the future. The world is too complex
and random for anyone to make a correct prediction about the future.
Even housing bears in 2006 guessed many things wrong about this
downturn. Don't predict. Prepare and react.
2. Money is only made when others are fearful. If everyone is cheerful
about the future, it is time to sell. The same thing applies to the house.
If anyone bought the house below replacement cost, you will be fine
if you have enough liquidity to g |
|
w********9
发帖数: 8613 | 19 http://www.metlife.com/assets/cao/mmi/publications/mmi-pressroom/GrandParents-Poll.pdf
GRANDPARENTS ARE PROVIDING $370.7 BILLION IN FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO THEIR
GRANDCHILDREN, ACCORDING TO METLIFE MATURE MARKET INSTITUTE® SURVEY
Economic Downturn Has Spurred Giving
Westport, CT – July 14, 2009 – Almost two-thirds of America’s
grandparents have provided financial support to their grandchildren during
the last five years, 40% for general purposes and 26% for education,
according to the MetLife |
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u****d
发帖数: 2578 | 20 I understand tt is difficult to be an agent now, but the cruel reality is
that most of the Chinese buyers who are capable of and willing to buy have
most likely bought. The pool is drying up. I would suggest you to explore
new target audience by looking into different ethical groups.
Last cycle when the housing market truely bottomed in 1990s, very few
realtors suvived, and the ones who did were almost all part-timers. You can'
t depend your life on this occupation during a downturn. The process |
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k********n
发帖数: 1819 | 21 wrong? what are you talking about? the housing market is going down
nationwide right now!
yes some location may be different especially lower to mid price house in
good school districts. it only shows the spreads between good house and
better house in good locations is shrinking and spreads between good
location and bad location is widening. it is the normal trend in any
downturn market |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 22 (1) Bob Tita, Boat Industry Stays Afloat. Wall Street Journal, Mar 9, 2011.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110225-711709.html
(US recreational boat industry)
Quote:
"Our biggest competitors became our own boats that were being repossessed,'
said Irwin Jacobs, cofounder of boat maker J&D Holdings LLC in Minnesota.
"Genmar Holdings Inc., the second-largest U.S. boat builder behind Brunswick
My comment: Title and date are those in the print. The print edition ended
with the sentence: "Genmar... 阅读全帖 |
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w******y
发帖数: 8040 | 23 还会有triple-dip的
大势所趋， 除了DC吃政府饭的， 加州大陆购房团cash抢房，
别的地方才是房事的真实写照
而且我老人家年初就说过了，
南加今年年初会出现房事转折，downturn会来
根本不用抢，有耐心自然会拿到满意的房子 |
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a**i
发帖数: 608 | 24 FED 看来是铁心维持 0 利率，根本不 CARE 通货膨胀， 也不 CARE 吹起新的
泡泡。
感觉呢房子是快要涨了，今年的股票也应该是牛市,至少相对于持续贬值的美元。
Fed Expects to Keep Rates Low Through at Least 2014
Published: Wednesday, 25 Jan 2012 | 1:03 PM ET Text Size By: Reuters
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it will not raise interest rates
until at least late 2014, even later than investors expected, in an effort
to support a sluggish economic recovery.
After the announcement, U.S. stocks pared losses while Brent and U.S. crude
futures rose. Meanwhile... 阅读全帖 |
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h****3
发帖数: 187 | 25 these are "generally" fair assessment of the current mkt in Southern CA.
we had 2 headfakes in the last 2 springs, the so-called "selling seasons".
Spring of '10--induced by federal government's $8k credit--many buyers found
out later they over paid much more than $8k.
Spring of '11--momentum lost due to turmoils in Europe.
coming Spring of '12--looks promising so far. activities have been up and
strong since late Nov/early Dec of '11.
Current housing downturn is entering the 6th yr. prices ha... 阅读全帖 |
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L**P
发帖数: 3792 | 26 When you refi to cash out your equity or lower your monthly payment, you
need a refi loan, what if at that time >50%? You cannot get it.
When you sell it, if your buyer needs a loan, what if at that time >50%? He
cannot get it then you cannot sell it. You are limited to cash buyers, but
how many cash buyer there are? And cash buyers always try to bargain.
Also 50 units, during economic downturn, as more and more owners cannot pay
HOA, what is going to happen? Either the HOA becomes dysfunctiona... 阅读全帖 |
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s******g
发帖数: 3530 | 27 Why Costco Is Crushing Walmart-Owned Sam's Club
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/16/sams-club-vs-costco_n_
Sam’s Club, the Walmart-owned purveyor of bulk toilet paper and ketchup,
had a terrible last few months, the company announced Thursday. Meanwhile
its competitor Costco is doing just fine.
Sales at Sam's Club stores open for a year or more fell 0.5 percent from a
year ago in the just-ended fiscal first quarter, the company announced
Thursday. The poor results come a few months after th... 阅读全帖 |
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l*********o
发帖数: 3091 | 28 【 以下文字转载自 SanFrancisco 讨论区 】
发信人: liangmaomao (UCLA之猛抓大腿), 信区: SanFrancisco
标 题: 房价已经到顶
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Feb 15 20:54:27 2016, 美东)
周围陆续听到layoff的情况。虽然猎头还有很多职位，但新的一轮downturn已经开始了
。就像2008年。 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 29 这个错误概念就别传播了，很多老中agent都爱扯这个，美国的房子肯定按尺卖，你去
看你拿到的appraisal报告是不是按尺算钱的，你拿到的cma是不是按尺量的。老钟
agent普遍屁都不懂，反正忽悠你买，一般uptrend没啥事，反正你不会亏钱，到了
downturn就等着吃官司把 |
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w*********s
发帖数: 2136 | 30 【 以下文字转载自 WorldNews 讨论区 】
发信人: whiteclouds (/ 参考消息 /), 信区: WorldNews
标 题: 10 Things About The Latest US Economic Number
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Oct 9 15:51:23 2010, 美东)
On Friday, headlines across the United States declared that "unemployment
remains unchanged at 9.6%". Many analysts rejoiced and heralded this
announcement as a sign that we have hit bottom and that things will be
turning around soon. But is that the truth? A closer look at the
unemployment numbers reveals some disturbing facts.... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******r
发帖数: 22634 | 31 这个就是笑笑。。。俺们上次 downturn 洗礼，PM 砍得只剩零头，testing 全部
outsource 海外。。。 |
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u*****a
发帖数: 6276 | 32 Pursuing her dream of a Hollywood digital animation job, Nancy Wennan Zhang
did the same thing thousands of other Chinese students do: She went to an
American college.
Zhang, 29, completed her bachelor’s degree at a Chinese university, but
traveled nearly 7,000 miles from her small hometown to Brooklyn’s Pratt
Institute to study for her master’s degree in digital arts. She expects to
graduate next year.
“America has the best education in the world,” she said. “And it has
Hollywood and Disney. Of... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****g
发帖数: 19398 | 33 With more state money available to reduce class sizes, school districts in
California are using incentives such as bonuses and housing subsidies to
recruit teachers. Schools have hired 7,700 teachers over the past two years
who have only temporary permits, waivers or intern credentials, data show.
BY DIANA LAMBERT
[email protected]
/* */
A growing teacher shortage has California school districts offering
subsidized housing and signing bonuses in an effort to woo potential
recruits.
The hir... 阅读全帖 |
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D*******o
发帖数: 3229 | 34 If I were him, I would stay in the U.S. for a few more years. Due to
economic downturn, the current job market is tough. The situation will go
better in the coming years. Has your LG talked with his adviser to see if he
can extend his postdoc tenure at NL, or become a permanent staff there?
Good luck. |
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D*******o
发帖数: 3229 | 35 Not quit clear about your area. It seems to be much easier to find a non-
postdoc job in engineering subjects, i.e. EE, CS. You may come in the U.S.
as a postdoc and find an industry job later. H1B is easier in these years,
thanks to the economic downturn. |
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v********e
发帖数: 378 | 36 Information that i am aware: First year senior tax manager in high living
cost areas in US (e.g., NY and SF) could make up to 150k base salary with
additional bonus. but that is not common.
In china, due to the global downturn, first year SM (local hire) can expect
500-600k a year but at 13 month paid-out and additional bonus. So that adds
up to 600 - 700K a year which is a very decent amount. |
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W*****e
发帖数: 7759 | 37 It's hard to sell when the market has a clear downturn, this is very
different from Stock Market. If the tread is not very clear, most people may
only treat this as adjustment, dilemma |
|
C*******s
发帖数: 330 | 38 I respectfully disagree. A highly efficient management structure is
critical to a corporation. Reorg is one of the top topics during the
economic downturn.
行. |
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b*********k
发帖数: 118 | 39 When economy grows up, the rank of top B-schools in the country side goes up
. However, their ranks drops in the economic downturn.
NYU has very strong B-school and law school, but the overall reputation is
very difficult to reach the level of Cornell and Duke. |
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c*******o
发帖数: 27734 | 40 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
ifirm (ifirm) 于 (Wed Mar 16 13:21:01 2011, 美东) 提到:
我一朋友的孩子, 被下列大学录取, 去哪一个好?
Indiana University,bloomington
State University of New York,Stony Brook
Michigan State University
Rutgers, State university of new jersey
NYU-Poly, Polytechnic Institute of New York University
University of Pittsburgh
专业都是商科或管理
麻烦好心人回答一下:
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
lsqg (我有小宝宝了) 于 (Wed Mar 16 14:05:50 2011, 美东) 提到:
没一个好学校。。。
☆─────────────────────────────────... 阅读全帖 |
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j****7
发帖数: 667 | 41 this is exactly what happened in california back in 1800's during economic
downturn when white people lost their jobs and blame everything on chinese
and started the famous chinese exclusion act. |
|
q***2
发帖数: 1861 | 42 Many times, timing is everything! Economic downturn is usually the best
time to start-up because cash is more valuable now, and you can ride the
wave for next up-turn... |
|
T*P
发帖数: 2697 | 43 【 以下文字转载自 ChinaStock 讨论区 】
发信人: TPP (弹泡泡), 信区: ChinaStock
标 题: Look to stocks for clues of ma - littletree
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Sep 24 17:41:07 2007), 站内
发信人: brisk (小飞侠·无知无觉), 信区: Stock
标 题: Look to stocks for clues of market
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jun 17 18:53:16 2007)
my reading notes of WSJ this weekend.
1. whether stocks with large market valuations (over $10 billion or so)
outpace small stocks with less than $2 billion.
Large companies tend to be more resilient to economic downturns than the |
|
b********y
发帖数: 5829 | 44 A presentation by Fidelity
"In two out of the four most recent recessions (1980 and 1990), the entire
market decline occurred prior to the announcement of recession."
"1990 –The circumstances surrounding this recession might be the most
similar to today: a real-estate-induced economic downturn; a banking system
spillover; the Federal Reserve already easing; and average stock valuations" |
|
w*********3
发帖数: 78 | 45 1.from a valuation perspective, the previous economic downturn 70,90,01, not
a major recession, the p/e of s&p,is from 12-23.
The major recession in 74,80,82 is about 6 or 7.
we are at Dow Industry p/e,as of 10/31, around 12 or less.
So the question is the current crisis if comparable to those economic
downnturn but not serious recessions, we might have hit a bottom already.But
just from what I have heard,media or coversation from people, many said
they feel this crisis is more serious than prev |
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 46 Insiders own 80% of DAC, institutions own 10%, only 10% (5M shares) is in
retailer's hands.
There was no insider trading (either buy or sell) in the past 6 month.
Institution was net sale of less than 0.5M shares. This explains the low
trading volume of DAC.
Insiders, who own the largest stake of DAC, in theory, has their interest
lined up with investors.
The single most important issue for DAC is its high debt ratio and its
ambitious plan of expanding it's fleet. With the downturn of the world |
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 47 well, if people learned a lesson from the crisis, they now maybe more
conservative on asset allocation. They could put more money on T-bills, etc.
The overall liquidity doesn't increase (may well decreased) comparing to
before the 2008 downturn. |
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 48 after a 6 wk wedge around Nov, it broke out Dec 7 (blue circle), and rise
sharply , then a 2 week tight flag follows, broke out of that on Dec. 29 (
green circle) i bought on that day and post on BBS. however the rally
followed was strong in the beginning but quickly faded. The selling has pick
up paces but unfortunately buried in the whole market downturn, it was very
hard to decipher. yesterday's rebound was weak. Today's price action is
very tepid and barely hang on Mid BB band but stayed BEL |
|
l*******r
发帖数: 3799 | 49 Financial sector is probably not as important as in 08' Fall. Yes, they are
weak, but for different reasons.
Actually their downturn started a couple of months before this correction.
I guess there was already a lot of
speculation of possible regulation. Paul Vaulker's plan just make it
clearer. However, during the past three
months, some sectors are doing very well. |
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g***l
发帖数: 18555 | 50 补啥，他们就会说了，不是跟你们说了是DOWNTURN吗，我可没告诉你是底。 |
|
